Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

[Sumarianson]

Once the tourists head to a new destination then it will be impossible to get them back. It is like when Icon Siam opened, noone wants to shop in the other local malls. 

[Chongalulu]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

Yea sure, it's that silly old fashioned sentiment that life is precious and worth more than money, it interferes with people's lifestyles all the time!

You do understand that in all countries a price is effectively put on life? Otherwise Thailand could spend $ billions on the roads to reduce 25,000 deaths per year. The NHS could have its budget trebled etc. 

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, DonaldBattles said:

Thanks, a very good detailed response. However I stand by my position that productivity is a serious factor in the value of currency. If you are not exporting then money is simply going in a circle and it does not gain value.

I agree that productivity is important to an economy but we can't agree I'm afraid that productivity is a significant factor in determining currency strength. Thailand has difficult with productivity levels and has been unable to increase them, despite this the Baht has remained one of the worlds strongest!

 

I don't fully understand what you wrote regarding exports and gaining value but it's not vital that a country is an exporter in order to have a successful economy, or a well performing currency, it just so happens that Thailand is an exporter and does have a sound currency. Exports simply increase demand and whilst they can lead to more rapid growth and higher GDP, Thailand's problem is that it is an export led economy with 60% of GDP arising from exports. If Thailand were to increase domestic demand it could reduce its reliance on exports, a move that would not negatively impact currency strength.

[0815]

6 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Besides, of course, the very rich and influential are now much richer and more influential. The real achievements of this government must not be hidden behind a smokescreen of fake news, unemployment, financial ruin for many and consequent poverty. They can always go back to their farms. And if the farms are gone, then they can wait at the road junctions near the villages early in the morning, in case anyone wants a slack handful of day labourers for B300 a day.

 

They don't know how lucky they are - of course they're happy.

They will even be happy to get 200B and sign for 300, same as the mango farmers do with the poor chaps from esaan every season.

[somtumwrong]

30 minutes ago, sambum said:

"The international heroine courier."?

 

Sorry, not being pedantic, or Grammar Police, but it made me chuckle!:-

her·o·ine

a woman admired or idealized for her courage, outstanding achievements, or noble qualities.

1. "she was the heroine of a materialist generation"

 

 

Hah! Thanks, always good to get some feedback on stupid non-native English speaker mistakes like this one. Yeah well, cough, I meant that the Thai government is like a woman admired or idealized for her courage blah blah, you get the point. Under no circumstances was I referring to a drug

[Chongalulu]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

You mean the second largest economy in SE Asia?

While that’s true ,even before Covid it was forecast to have the worst growth rate in the region. The trajectory is worryingly downward. The low and worsening position on the PISA educational tables give little reason for hope of this changing.

[mpyre]

6 hours ago, Denim said:

Never mind. The main thing is that the government has returned happiness to the people , stopped all corruption in high places ,  united the politically divided nation and conquered covid 19.

 

Can't have everything.

It's pretty much the same around the globe, not just Thailand.

[terryofcrete]

12 minutes ago, Moon6966 said:

About the daily death rate of car motor bike accidents a day... 

And all those infected people most of them recovered and sent home 

Did so well ... wonder why the rest of the world keep raising their eyebrows. 69 mil pop . 60 deaths ...I see England have not included Thailand on the list that you can visit and return from without quarantine. Personally I don’t give a fiddler’s .. I am not English ..just one example of of the suspicion that is apparent when speaking to anyone about the safety of heading back to visit the Land of Smiles. 

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

You do understand that in all countries a price is effectively put on life? Otherwise Thailand could spend $ billions on the roads to reduce 25,000 deaths per year. The NHS could have its budget trebled etc. 

That is one conclusion that can be drawn by taking a snapshot in time but I think the reality is very different. The NHS budget could be trebled but the country is going through a period where the population is ageing, in twenty years time it will be in the opposite position, why spend 10% of GDP on building health care facilities when much of them they will be redundant in twenty years time.

 

Building roads in Thailand will not reduce road deaths, that also is a process which will take years and involves culture change, revised law enforcement and education, there is no short cut for those things unfortunately.

 

Every expense involves tradeoffs, government and society can't resolve 100% of every problem the problems at the same time so money is spent in the knowledge that there will be a negative aspect to the expenditure....the world is simply imperfect in this respect and always will be.

[Chongalulu]

2 minutes ago, Trillian said:

That is one conclusion that can be drawn by taking a snapshot in time but I think the reality is very different. The NHS budget could be trebled but the country is going through a period where the population is ageing, in twenty years time it will be in the opposite position, why spend 10% of GDP on building health care facilities when much of them they will be redundant in twenty years time.

 

Building roads in Thailand will not reduce road deaths, that also is a process which will take years and involves culture change, revised law enforcement and education, there is no short cut for those things unfortunately.

 

Every expense involves tradeoffs, government and society can't resolve 100% of every problem the problems at the same time so money is spent in the knowledge that there will be a negative aspect to the expenditure....the world is simply imperfect in this respect and always will be.

The NHS makes financial decisions on treatments through NICE who make calculations based on QALYS .Google if you’re unfamiliar with them but they put a specific price on life.

[mpyre]

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus.  Its mortality rate in under 50 year olds is very low and the country has contained it but you would think this is the black death descending on the country.  Thai's have for years lived with Malaria, Dengue Fever, HIV, massive road carnage, horrendous pollution..... and along comes a virus with a mortality rate about 2-5 times a bad flu season and the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

You're correct, and the same is true in many countries around the world, including Britain and the USA.

[Trillian]

6 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

While that’s true ,even before Covid it was forecast to have the worst growth rate in the region. The trajectory is worryingly downward. The low and worsening position on the PISA educational tables give little reason for hope of this changing.

Yes I recognise that and I agree that government might have done more to achieve better growth. That said, and I'm not going to be exact on these numbers, Vietnam saw something like 7% growth in GDP whilst Thailand saw half that amount. In dollar income terms they both saw the same amount because Thailand's GDP is twice that of Vietnam. Another aspect of this is that there is a finite amount of business to be had at any point in time and the two countries shared it equally, the trajectory is therefore not necessarily downwards at all.

[mberbae]

15% from Tourism ?? More like 25-30%.

Meanwhile the baht stays strong, driving

the foreigners out. Isn't that the plan ? !!

[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, Jimbo2014 said:

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus.  Its mortality rate in under 50 year olds is very low and the country has contained it but you would think this is the black death descending on the country.  Thai's have for years lived with Malaria, Dengue Fever, HIV, massive road carnage, horrendous pollution..... and along comes a virus with a mortality rate about 2-5 times a bad flu season and the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

Its the power of 'marketing' ... Fear of the unknown ......

[NoComment]

Thailand will survive no matter what happens or is forecast.

[AKJeff]

Wow what a thread.

 

In terms of tourist remember Thailand competes with other nations.  Bali just announced foreign tourism starting again in September. 

 

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/06/bali-to-welcome-international-tourists-in-september.html

 

And the Philippines is also relaxing travel restrictions. 

 

https://www.thenational.ae/lifestyle/travel/manila-s-terminal-3-to-reopen-on-july-8-to-handle-increase-in-international-flights-1.1044815

 

And in both countries covid cases are rising still.  It looks like they are saying that the disease will have to be lived with because the economic impact is too great.

[Trillian]

8 minutes ago, mberbae said:

15% from Tourism ?? More like 25-30%.

Meanwhile the baht stays strong, driving

the foreigners out. Isn't that the plan ? !!

7.5% of GDP from domestic tourism

11.5% of GDP from international tourism.

Tourism Total = 18% of GDP - GDP = USD 520 bill.

 

and tourism is 20% of all exports, exports accounting for 60% of GDP.

[Monkeyrobot]

I don’t think so they need to change there Baht into dollars ready to flee when the mob turn on them.

[Mikeasq60]

4 hours ago, rkidlad said:

Yes, thank you! Are their any viable candidates in Thailand who could shake things up in Bangkok?

[Mikeasq60]

I've read past articles in TV that says tourism is only a very small piece of the Thai economic picture. I know that's a very wrong statement and their trying to undermine the real story on whats happening in Thailand.

[Mikeasq60]

24 minutes ago, rvaviator said:

Its the power of 'marketing' ... Fear of the unknown ......

I just get the feeling theirs more to these lockdowns worldwide because these countries are all saying the same exact thing. Are they having teleconferences something isn't right here! Are Thai people waking up as to whats going on inside their country? My Thai wife when I ask on the phone because I cant be with her yet what on earth is going on in Thailand she always says what can I say like shes afraid to talk about it.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Mikeasq60
I changed a few things in the story line

[Mikeasq60]

4 hours ago, transam said:

You reckon...

Im 62+ yo and not afraid of this virus at all with all the things going on around the world and Im going to be in a panic state about this CV, no way. Time to put the big boy and girl pants on.

[phantomfiddler]

It does not take a genius to figure out the reason why the outlook is so bleak. Thailand has in the past done very well and relied heavily on the tourist dollar, but for some totally inexplicable reason have now decided to treat western tourist in a manner that can only be described as lower than one would treat a dog ???? 

[Skeptic7]

Hoping this is accurate...

...then multiply by a thousand! 

[Chongalulu]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

Yes I recognise that and I agree that government might have done more to achieve better growth. That said, and I'm not going to be exact on these numbers, Vietnam saw something like 7% growth in GDP whilst Thailand saw half that amount. In dollar income terms they both saw the same amount because Thailand's GDP is twice that of Vietnam. Another aspect of this is that there is a finite amount of business to be had at any point in time and the two countries shared it equally, the trajectory is therefore not necessarily downwards at all.

China’s (a far,far bigger economy)  consistent 6+% growth rate rather blows that theory out of the water...

[drbeach]

36 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

I just get the feeling theirs more to these lockdowns worldwide because these countries are all saying the same exact thing. Are they having teleconferences something isn't right here! Are Thai people waking up as to whats going on inside their country? My Thai wife when I ask on the phone because I cant be with her yet what on earth is going on in Thailand she always says what can I say like shes afraid to talk about it.

She sounds very paranoid. Talking about it over the phone should be zero issue.

[Sean60]

The borders need get open. It is absolutely madness to keep the country shout down. Bankruptcy is knocking on the doors and tragedy is on the horizon . Stop Looking at your own pockets. I have few Thai staff which every one of them support another 5 people. If I go bankrupt then about 18 people will start suffering(I am supporting additional 3). Please open up for tourists to come. This country is highly depended on tourism and you can not change that by only allowing the reach or another method. Regulate the market. and slowly make sure that market is functioning in a healthy form. Open the borders. The cure is causing more problems than the virus.

 

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[CGW]

3 hours ago, hansnl said:

Democracy, Sir, is something highly overrated, while it has been degraded to once every four years a totally useless vote because the political elite, from whatever side, will just do what they want.

Yes, democracy - so yesterday, the new way "forward" is socialism or communism, call it whichever, keeps more people occupied - while those at the top continue as usual! Same, same but just a little bit different! ???? 

[Trillian]

6 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

China’s (a far,far bigger economy)  consistent 6+% growth rate rather blows that theory out of the water...

But China is not SE Asia, it's a totally different economy with different trading partners and exports. Vietnam and Thailand compete along with Malaysia for their share of the same market.

[7fish]

3 hours ago, Jimbo2014 said:

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus

Just the Thai's?   What about the other two thirds of the planet that turned lunatic practically overnight?