Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

[lks7689]

16 minutes ago, hansnl said:

Are you serious?

Do you really believe what you say?

You have no memory, don't remember the "democratic government" á la Thaksin?

Democracy, Sir, is something highly overrated, while it has been degraded to once every four years a totally useless vote because the political elite, from whatever side, will just do what they want.

If there would be another government, never mind the colour, the problems for the "little people" will remain the same, or worse, but never better.

Not only in Thailand, but nearly everywhere in the world.

Not everyone realise the fact that we are in a world where we are only participants in a game where the rules has long been set by those in control. 

[somtumwrong]

1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

We have had fair elections we have had non military government. The problem is that they have no system to educate people.  With everyone passed off at China is a perfect time to retool industry and start to provide the things that China made unfortunately we lack the skilled labour force

To be honest, they voted in a 'democratic' way, no matter the quantity of propaganda and lies the electorate were fed by the miliatary with, they chose those people to lead them. You have to be mature enough not to vote for a government with the heroine dealers and timepiece stealers. You reap what you sow. Thailand earned its government. Som nam na ????‍♂️ Good luck.

[kingofthemountain]

13 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

and still they want to pretend they handled the situation the best in the world

 

next time, maybe it is worth more to get rid of 10.000 sick people than to kill the economy

 

they even released convicted criminals

Sad noises from 10 000 people and their families in the background....

 

 

However from a purely technical and rational point of view i can understand your post

[Jimbo2014]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has been cited as a success story in containing the coronavirus outbreak

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus.  Its mortality rate in under 50 year olds is very low and the country has contained it but you would think this is the black death descending on the country.  Thai's have for years lived with Malaria, Dengue Fever, HIV, massive road carnage, horrendous pollution..... and along comes a virus with a mortality rate about 2-5 times a bad flu season and the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

[Anton9]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo2014 said:

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus.  Its mortality rate in under 50 year olds is very low and the country has contained it but you would think this is the black death descending on the country.  Thai's have for years lived with Malaria, Dengue Fever, HIV, massive road carnage, horrendous pollution..... and along comes a virus with a mortality rate about 2-5 times a bad flu season and the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

You are making too much sense from a Thai point of view

[Trillian]

2 minutes ago, Jimbo2014 said:

the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

You mean the second largest economy in SE Asia?

[khunpa]

1 minute ago, Jimbo2014 said:

I think Thai's have lost their collective minds over this virus.  Its mortality rate in under 50 year olds is very low and the country has contained it but you would think this is the black death descending on the country.  Thai's have for years lived with Malaria, Dengue Fever, HIV, massive road carnage, horrendous pollution..... and along comes a virus with a mortality rate about 2-5 times a bad flu season and the country is ready to destroy what little economy they have. 

What do you suggest they do? Do like the Americans with now 50.000 cases per day and rising?

 

Keeping Thailand free of Covid might end up as the biggest benefit for them in the long run.

[Anton9]

6 minutes ago, Trillian said:

You mean the second largest economy in SE Asia?

Wow, not even Europe,

South East Asia,that's what you call a huge achievement.

With rivals like Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar that's remarkable.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Anton9

[pineapple01]

Never mid Thailand too many ferangs are near skint here looking around Pats..

[Trillian]

3 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Wow, not even Europe,

South East Asia,that's what you call a huge achievement.

With rivals like Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar that's remarkable.

Let's not be stingy, let's have the full list:

 

"Southeast Asia is composed of eleven countries of impressive diversity in religion, culture and history: Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam".

 

 

[Surasak]

4 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

Not if P C-O-C has anyhting to do with it.

[A1Str8]

Far from dire.

[Surasak]

5 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

And happy monkeys are picking coconuts. 

Bot happy for too long if the UK supermarkets have anything say in the matter. 

[tribalfusion001]

Job nearly done, got rid of most those horrible foreigners, most of the sleazy sex bars are closed, Thai people can enjoy the beaches without tourists, just a few unemployed, more monitoring of the people, a generals wet dream...

[samsensam]

 

yup, thai people are safe, unless they happen to be using the roads but the less said about that the better, there is no corona virus, horray! who cares if the economy is tanking? thai people are safe!

[mike787]

It's curtains for Thailands GDP and TAT...nobody is coming back.

[wealthychef]

6 hours ago, Trillian said:

To put that into perspective: 

https://www.statista.com/chart/21961/oecd-gdp-growth-projections-2020-on-2019/

 

To add further perspective, that table and these projections are based on very shaky "one-hit" scenarios that seem overly optimistic to me.  

[paulikens]

would someone tell the baht that!!

[Trillian]

1 minute ago, wealthychef said:

 

To add further perspective, that table and these projections are based on very shaky "one-hit" scenarios that seem overly optimistic to me.  

If you want the forecast to include the possibility of a second wave, how about it includes the possibility of a miracle cure vaccine next month!

 

Like any forecast it's based on what we know today, not on things that could or might happen in the future. If those future events are realised, a new forecast will be compiled.

[Isaan sailor]

Three reasons for Thailand’s GDP decline:

1. The high Baht

2. The high Baht

3. The high Baht

[barney42bb]

90 to the 3 and relative parity for Our Western currencies....Then Happiness surely will be back.

[Misterwhisper]

2 hours ago, Justgrazing said:

I've seen a lot more than 15% exposed in Soi/6 .. 100% in fact .. but won't all the High Quality Tourists they are confident will be banging on the door ( metaphorically ) readjust the balance back to happy , amazing and wonderful again .. 

 

If the latest news is to be trusted, there soon will be private jets landing on Soi 6 in 3-minute intervals. Be careful when walking down the street! 

[papa al]

5 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

The exchange rate is determined by market factors.

Can't get more real than that.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“Thailand has large exposure as a tourism hub, close to 15% of GDP, and it also has large exposure of the export-oriented sector,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist for Thailand at the World Bank. “Hence the large shock to GDP.”

Thailand was/is a one trick pony... the circus is over.
The military regime thought it could do anything, the economy was already sliding, tourism was already diminishing, then Covid came along to spoil the party. The high baht is killing exports while SME's are dying with no markets.

These leaders have no idea about how to run a country... ruin one yes!

It's run like an exclusive mens club for the boys... 

 

[Trillian]

7 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Thailand was/is a one trick pony... the circus is over.
The military regime thought it could do anything, the economy was already sliding, tourism was already diminishing, then Covid came along to spoil the party. The high baht is killing exports while SME's are dying with no markets.

These leaders have no idea about how to run a country... ruin one yes!

It's run like an exclusive mens club for the boys... 

 

I think you based what you wrote on anecdotal evidence because the fundamentals suggest otherwise:

 

"The economy was already sliding", yet GDP increased from USD 505 bill. to 530 bill.

 

"Tourism was already diminishing", yet tourist numbers and revenue increased albeit not in the traditional locations and manner.

 

"The high baht is killing exports", yet February and March were excellent and in line with the prior year, a near record high. It's also worth noting that export growth had been stellar for several years and most people understood that same growth rate was not sustainable.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

Edited July 7, 2020 by Trillian

[sambum]

1 hour ago, somtumwrong said:

Now but where is the drug dealer in that picture? The international heroine courier. Fake pic I guess. Maybe busy handing out bananas..

"The international heroine courier."?

 

Sorry, not being pedantic, or Grammar Police, but it made me chuckle!:-

her·o·ine

a woman admired or idealized for her courage, outstanding achievements, or noble qualities.

1. "she was the heroine of a materialist generation"

 

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by sambum

[DonaldBattles]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

I disagree that it is that. The productivity of a country is reflected in its GDP, if GDP increases it doesn't mean the currency will also strengthen. The strength of a currency is determined by a series of factors including the amount of debt owed by the country, its foreign currency reserve levels and the status of its current account. If the the current account (and trade balance) are in surplus it means the country exports more than it imports so the positive balance will go to increase foreign reserves. All those things are true in the case of Thailand which is why THB remains strong.

Thanks, a very good detailed response. However I stand by my position that productivity is a serious factor in the value of currency. If you are not exporting then money is simply going in a circle and it does not gain value.

[Moon6966]

Asia is not very smart 

And all at the top full of money anyway 

China will buy all those who go bankruptcy 

It happened in cambodia 

They took over 

Look like Asia is going to go 40 years backwards 

0 tourist 0 export 

Future looking better a better every day.... 

And how many dead so far from that so called pandemic not even 60 which is 

About the daily death rate of car motor bike accidents a day... 

And all those infected people most of them recovered and sent home 

Alot of fuss over nothing 

[prakhonchai nick]

3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

maybe, just maybe it could be due to the photo above (posted by rKidlad) keep in mind image is everything 555

Whats with the white uniforms.........all same same.  Aren't they all just ordinary people................Silly question,,,,,,of course not.......they are all little gods!

[Chongalulu]

2 hours ago, DonaldBattles said:

The value of currency is a product of the productivity of the nation. A serious drop in productivity will result in a drop in the currency. Unless, the BOT decides to protect the currency  value. Most military would be opposed to a big drop in value.

No,it’s rather more complicated than that including interest rates,current account surplus/defecit etc etc