'Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths in second wave

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'Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths in second wave

By Kate Kelland

 

FILE PHOTO: A ambulance arrives at the NHS Nightingale Hospital at the Excel Centre in London as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, London, Britain, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/John Sibley

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain faces a potentially more deadly second wave of COVID-19 in the coming winter that could kill up to 120,000 people over nine months in a worst-case scenario, health experts said on Tuesday.

 

With COVID-19 more likely to spread in winter as people spend more time together in enclosed spaces, a second wave of the pandemic "could be more serious than the one we've just been through," said Stephen Holgate, a professor and co-lead author of a report by Britain's Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS).

 

"This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility," Holgate told an online briefing. "Deaths could be higher with a new wave of COVID-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately."

 

The United Kingdom's current death toll from confirmed cases of COVID-19 is around 45,000, the highest in Europe. Including suspected cases, more than 55,000 people have died, according to a Reuters tally of official data sources.

 

The AMS said there is a "high degree of uncertainty" about how the UK's COVID-19 epidemic will evolve, but outlined a "reasonable worst-case scenario" where the reproduction number -- or R value -- rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards.

 

The R value -- the average number of people an infected person will pass a disease on to -- is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK and daily case and death numbers are falling. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth.

 

"The modelling estimates 119,900 hospital deaths between September 2020 and June 2021," the AMS report said, more than double the number that occurred during the first wave.

 

AMS vice president Anne Johnson said a bad winter flu season, combined with large backlog of patients suffering other diseases and chronic conditions, would add to huge pressure on health services -- underlining a need to prepare now.

 

"COVID-19 has not gone away," she said. "We need to do everything we can to stay healthy this winter."

 

(Reporting by Kate Kelland; Editing by Catherine Evans)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-14

 

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[faraday]

That's right, keep on scaring people, giving the wrong advice & etc.

 

Then, when the Oxford group can release the vaccine, everything will rosy again.

 

Problem, reaction, solution.

[tiocfaidh]

5 minutes ago, faraday said:

That's right, keep on scaring people, giving the wrong advice & etc.

 

Then, when the Oxford group can release the vaccine, everything will rosy again.

 

Problem, reaction, solution.

I hope you are correct and Oxford will find a vaccine. The fact that we have not found a vaccine for any of the coronavirus, MERS, SARS etc. worries me.

I offered myself to Oxford for the trials as I'm 55 and only 30 miles away. Didn't get the gig ????

[ukrules]

Worst case scenarios almost never happen. Something the media don't often report - but they always report pretty much only the possible worst case scenario.

 

Where's the list of best case scenarios? That's what all we've experienced so far.

[ukrules]

3 minutes ago, tiocfaidh said:

I hope you are correct and Oxford will find a vaccine. The fact that we have not found a vaccine for any of the coronavirus, MERS, SARS etc. worries me.

I offered myself to Oxford for the trials as I'm 55 and only 30 miles away. Didn't get the gig ????

There's a good reason why they didn't 'find' a vaccine for SARS and MERS - they can't do a widespread test because it either doesn't exist any more (SARS) or is so rare (MERS) that a widespread vaccine test makes no sense.

 

No tests = no vaccine. If COVID disappears in the next 6 months or so without an ongoing epidemic and transmission during the test period then there won't be a properly tested COVID vaccine either.

 

Edited July 13, 2020 by ukrules

[tribalfusion001]

More scaremongering, it's getting tedious now.

[steelepulse]

Keep the fear coming!  Heaven forbid news outlets and governments start advising on how to get the population in a much better state of health by cutting out the processed carbs, sugar and <deleted> food.  Add onto this ensuring vitamin D sufficiency and some exercise, covid cases above mild would drop like a stone.  Amazing that if the population were healthy, the goverments would save a bundle on health care.

 

No, instead just scare everyone back into their closets.

[sungod]

32 minutes ago, drizzel said:

In my country The Netherlands the checked how many deaths, in the 2018 we had more deaths with the flu.

No lockdown and no hysteria.
The whole world is chasing the WHO, incomprehensible Bill Gates immediately fills his pockets with money.

We have always survived viruses for thousands of years.
Without a vaccine, just use common sense, the measures they are now adopting and using will cost far more deaths than they save lives.

This is my opinion, hopefully everyone thinks for themselves!

Respect for everyone on the planet.

I thought Bill Gates was giving money away?

[faraday]

1 hour ago, tiocfaidh said:

I hope you are correct and Oxford will find a vaccine. The fact that we have not found a vaccine for any of the coronavirus, MERS, SARS etc. worries me.

I offered myself to Oxford for the trials as I'm 55 and only 30 miles away. Didn't get the gig ????

Think they're gonna get the 'volunteers' from Blackbird Leys....????

[baansgr]

And best case could be zero....that's another possibility..

[faraday]

Thanks for yet another confused emoji Chomper!

 

????

 

 

[rupert the bear]

ha ha ha there wont be a 2nd wave,that means a wave as big or larger than the initial one.the cases are going up and deaths down at an unreal rate ,when it gets a bit higher we will see the rates of death resemble very closely those of flu,consider the many who have had it or have it with small or no symptoms plus others who stayed in abed a few days,this is getting absurd.when tests go outside the people reporting sick or working in hospitals the death rate will plummet and .....well whos gonna pay for it....us !!!and who will be responsible? well dont look at WHO china or our govts,they just dont have the time .theyre too busy telling us what to do.theyll try and spin panic us with their buddies on MSM but we may not wear it.

[baansgr]

33 minutes ago, faraday said:

Think they're gonna get the 'volunteers' from Blackbird Leys....????

That's been a no go area for 20 years and more

[evadgib]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

Worst case scenarios almost never happen. Something the media don't often report - but they always report pretty much only the possible worst case scenario.

 

Where's the list of best case scenarios? That's what all we've experienced so far.

The best case scenario is that it was nothing more than flu and that the world is being played.

[thaibeachlovers]

The scaremongering never stops, does it?

Sadly, IMO, there are plenty of scared people lapping it up.

Edited July 14, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[Eric Loh]

15 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The scaremongering never stops, does it?

Sadly, IMO, there are plenty of scared people lapping it up.

People should not be scared if they know that their government is doing the right thing.

 

SECOND WAVE

South Korea had won international praise for their prompt social distancing action and ruthless efficiency in tracking and tracing, which appeared to quickly get the virus under control.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, Eric Loh said:

People should not be scared if they know that their government is doing the right thing.

 

SECOND WAVE

South Korea had won international praise for their prompt social distancing action and ruthless efficiency in tracking and tracing, which appeared to quickly get the virus under control.

Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't want to live there.

[Eric Loh]

7 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't want to live there.

They wouldn't allow you in coming from a highly uncontrollable infected country.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

They wouldn't allow you in coming from a highly uncontrollable infected country.

LOL. I wouldn't want to live there BEFORE Corona. Not a country I could like much.

[Eric Loh]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL. I wouldn't want to live there BEFORE Corona. Not a country I could like much.

So you decided on a better country to stay like Thailand. Prayut love you. 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

So you decided on a better country to stay like Thailand. Prayut love you. 

I lived in and loved Thailand long before I ever heard of him.

[RuamRudy]

26 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps so, but I certainly wouldn't want to live there.

My mate lives in Seoul and tells me that it is really not as intrusive or restrictive as you might think. I get regular photos from him down the pub so life goes on there as it hasn't been doing in the UK. 

[Eric Loh]

6 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I lived in and loved Thailand long before I ever heard of him.

But you live through countless coups. Well balanced comparison to South Korea. LOL. 

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

But you live through countless coups. Well balanced comparison to South Korea. LOL. 

I'm not that old. Last couple didn't affect me at all.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

My mate lives in Seoul and tells me that it is really not as intrusive or restrictive as you might think. I get regular photos from him down the pub so life goes on there as it hasn't been doing in the UK. 

I lived in Singapore in the 70s and loved it so that's not it. Just don't want to live in a country that could be at war any time soon.

[evadgib]

From HMG yesterday:

Quote

The 5th set of data demonstrates a huge improvement in turnaround times of test results. Anyone getting a test at a regional test site or mobile testing unit can expect their results by the next day at the latest, with 91% of tests returned in less than 24 hours, and 97.5% of tests returned the day after the test was taken over the week of 25 June to 1 July. At the end of May, 16.6% of tests at regional test sites and 2.5% of tests at mobile testing units were returned in under 24 hours.

More than 144,000 people who may have been at risk of unknowingly spreading the virus have been reached by the service and asked to self-isolate....

97.5% of in-person coronavirus (COVID-19) tests returned next day

[pegman]

Just keep your borders shut to Americans and Brazilians and the Brits should be able to half that worse case scenario. 

[Rimmer]

Off topic posts and replies removed.

 

Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths in second wave

[Jack100]

I was hoping someone would come along and rid us of the little flu by now !

[Syduan]

7 hours ago, tiocfaidh said:

I hope you are correct and Oxford will find a vaccine. The fact that we have not found a vaccine for any of the coronavirus, MERS, SARS etc. worries me.

I offered myself to Oxford for the trials as I'm 55 and only 30 miles away. Didn't get the gig ????

You were lucky.