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'Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths in second wave


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7 hours ago, ukrules said:

Worst case scenarios almost never happen. Something the media don't often report - but they always report pretty much only the possible worst case scenario.

 

Where's the list of best case scenarios? That's what all we've experienced so far.

That is what Western countries said about Corona virus - the previous SARS did not progress as far as Europe and America so no worries. But this one has. Oops!

 

In my humble opinion, the worst case scenario, assuming that the virus does not mutate into being a worse killer, would be 1% of the population, minus the 40,000 that it has killed so far. In excess of 600,000 in the UK alone. That would be the case if no one did anything at all.

 

The best possible scenario would be zero cases and zero deaths. At the rate things are going, that can only be achieved either with a vaccine or some medication that deals with the virus in those infected. In the meantime, we are trying for a mitigating scenario - although this is not being done very well in the UK.

 

We are not experiencing the best case scenario in the UK. We are experiencing a situation that is worse than any other European country right now and we could be in for a real shock in September as the infection rate is likely to increase dramatically when the weather turns cold, people move indoors and the virus transmits more effectively.

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7 times the lunatic N.F. has made lunatic predictions causing devastation a man receives money from Bill and WHO while holding a top job for the UK government. He has caused devastation and cost the country billions. H e should have been tried for fraud after Mad Cows let alone Foot and Mouth and now C19. There should be consequences to every single person who lies about a death or causes panic by lies. How can a doctor be allowed to practice who signed a death certificate as C19 when the poor man <deleted> himself in the head in a successful suicide. Why is that doctor not in prison? Who is going to be held accountable for the 7 Nightingale hospitals built that never see a patient and quietly closed, who is going to be imprisoned for the deaths of now the hundreds of thousands having died because of the lockdown in the uk (figure of 8000+ a day, yes over eight thousand a day). Criminal. 

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13 minutes ago, Kiwiken said:

the USA usually suffers about 30,000 flu related deaths per year but they are at 138,000 and adding but do not worry it is just a little flu.

just 10  years worth here 2018 was  pretty  good then theres  this  one  of 80,000 https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

influenza-burden-chart2-960px.jpg

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8 hours ago, drizzel said:

In my country The Netherlands the checked how many deaths, in the 2018 we had more deaths with the flu.

No lockdown and no hysteria.
The whole world is chasing the WHO, incomprehensible Bill Gates immediately fills his pockets with money.

We have always survived viruses for thousands of years.
Without a vaccine, just use common sense, the measures they are now adopting and using will cost far more deaths than they save lives.

This is my opinion, hopefully everyone thinks for themselves!

Respect for everyone on the planet.

And look at Sweden.  No lockdown. Schools remained open and within a hairs breadth of herd immunity.

 

It seems to me the places that fared worst are those that decided on strict lockdowns.  Chicken or egg perhaps.  But the communities that stayed open faring better suggests the lockdowns may be the cause, rather than the solution.

 

Further, attempts to slow the virus merely exacerbate the problem.  The longer it is around, the more likely it is to infect vulnerable people.  And if they do manage to stretch this out to the winter through inane delaying tactics, then they may well create further deaths.  Especially if as some reports that immunity may only last a few months are correct.

 

Back to Sweden.  Analysis shows roughly 81% of people already have a level of immunity, possibly from previous covid infections, ie the common cold.  To reach herd immunity, 17% of the population need to have been infected.  Somewhat lower than early predictions of 60% or 70%.

 

The wise solution is to protect the vulnerable, and get the young and healthy  infected and recovered as quickly as possible.  Then the vulnerable can rejoin the population.

 

It is simple and basically what people always do naturally.  Sick people stay home.  Vulnerable people do their best to stay out of the way of sick people.  It is how humans have dealt with things over the millennia as community dynamics have developed to deal with epidemics.  It depends on individual responsibility.  The central management of this issue is what is causing the majority of deaths.  Further, it will cause more deaths - cancer patients are one example - and destroy economies, bringing even more death and general misery upon people.

 

Frankly, anyone cheering on facemasks, lockdowns and such-like have been seriously misguided by the media and the political establishment.

 

 

 

In my country The Netherlands the checked how many deaths, in the 2018 we had more deaths with the flu.

No lockdown and no hysteria.
The whole world is chasing the WHO, incomprehensible Bill Gates immediately fills his pockets with money.

We have always survived viruses for thousands of years.
Without a vaccine, just use common sense, the measures they are now adopting and using will cost far more deaths than they save lives.

This is my opinion, hopefully everyone thinks for themselves!

Respect for everyone on the planet.

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5 hours ago, pegman said:

Just keep your borders shut to Americans and Brazilians and the Brits should be able to half that worse case scenario. 

Agreed, That's my biggest criticism of the UK government, they lockdown the whole country but not our borders. People have been free to fly in and out of the UK as they please without even a temperature check nor providing track and trace information. I also think wearing masks in public should have been made compulsory months ago

 

When the government did introduce quarantine for those travelling into the UK from abroad it was only self isolation and as such the 14 day quarantine was in no way enforced, people could come back from the US, India, Brazil etc and readily go to the shops. 

 

Three weeks after announcing the 14 day quarantine the government opens up travel without quarantine to 60+ countries. 

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3 hours ago, webfact said:

'Worst-case' UK winter could see 120,000 COVID deaths in second wave

It's not really surprising. They can't even isolate the ones who have it, they just run away.

 

Police are searching for three people, one of whom tested positive for coronavirus, who left quarantine on a farm at the centre of a Covid-19 outbreak in Herefordshire.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/13/three-people-missing-from-covid-19-quarantine-herefordshire-say-police

Sounds sort of familiar to somewhere not a million miles away.

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During the Spanish Flue pandemic of 1918/19, over 50 ( and maybe even 100) million people died worldwide. A quarter of the British population were affected. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain alone ( population then 43 mln incl North-Ireland) . So, with 67,5 mln, this equals a 358.000 casualties. So, this estimate is a 1/3 of then.

Global mortality rate is not known, but is estimated to have been between 10% to 20% of those who were infected. Good luck world, with all your ignorance till now and lack of social distancing, while a LOT more contacts than a century ago.

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33 minutes ago, japanese said:

 And look at Sweden.  No lockdown. Schools remained open and within a hairs breadth of herd immunity.

 

It seems to me the places that fared worst are those that decided on strict lockdowns.  Chicken or egg perhaps.  But the communities that stayed open faring better suggests the lockdowns may be the cause, rather than the solution.

 

Further, attempts to slow the virus merely exacerbate the problem.  The longer it is around, the more likely it is to infect vulnerable people.  And if they do manage to stretch this out to the winter through inane delaying tactics, then they may well create further deaths.  Especially if as some reports that immunity may only last a few months are correct.

 

Back to Sweden.  Analysis shows roughly 81% of people already have a level of immunity, possibly from previous covid infections, ie the common cold.  To reach herd immunity, 17% of the population need to have been infected.  Somewhat lower than early predictions of 60% or 70%.

 

The wise solution is to protect the vulnerable, and get the young and healthy  infected and recovered as quickly as possible.  Then the vulnerable can rejoin the population.

 

It is simple and basically what people always do naturally.  Sick people stay home.  Vulnerable people do their best to stay out of the way of sick people.  It is how humans have dealt with things over the millennia as community dynamics have developed to deal with epidemics.  It depends on individual responsibility.  The central management of this issue is what is causing the majority of deaths.  Further, it will cause more deaths - cancer patients are one example - and destroy economies, bringing even more death and general misery upon people.

 

Frankly, anyone cheering on facemasks, lockdowns and such-like have been seriously misguided by the media and the political establishment.

 

 

This one article pretty much debunks everything you have just said about Sweden:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

 

You haven't factored in that different geographical location have wildly varying outcomes which could be due to environmental conditions or differing strains of the virus but without lockdown some European countries could have seen millions of confirmed cases and hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths.  

 

Where the hell did you get 17% from for heard immunity, utter nonsense. Every single paper I've looked at suggest figures of 40% to 70% to reach immunity and most papers say that you need 90 to 95% to stop a virus spreading entirely. 

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9 hours ago, drizzel said:

In my country The Netherlands the checked how many deaths, in the 2018 we had more deaths with the flu.

No lockdown and no hysteria.
The whole world is chasing the WHO, incomprehensible Bill Gates immediately fills his pockets with money.

We have always survived viruses for thousands of years.
Without a vaccine, just use common sense, the measures they are now adopting and using will cost far more deaths than they save lives.

This is my opinion, hopefully everyone thinks for themselves!

Respect for everyone on the planet.

Sorry, but not correct, see the data of the CBS: see https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/detail/70895ned or https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland. See the peak of 2018 compared with 2020. In reality the "over mortality" compared with the average of 2012-2019 of 65-80 is a 2730, and of 80+ a 6000, so a 8700 costly elderly are cleaned up. ( sorry for my cynicism).

yes, humanity survived over the last 200.000 years manty diseases. But.. not so enthusiastic when I belong to those few %, who passed away earlier.

 

The last pandemic = Spanish Flue. In Netherlands a 75.000 casualties at a population of 6,8 million. With the present of 17,2 mln that would mean a 189.700 casualties. I would NOT like to be prime minister to explain that to the nation. Remind: nearly all governments lie to their population, by ONLY counting the "confirmed Corona" patients, who passed away. In NL the figure of 6.156 should be a 6000 higher as the official figure. In Belgium, the government is a LOT more honest: 9.782 of which 52 % from care homes

 

 

In de week van 25 juni tot en met 1 juli 2020 was de totale sterfte in Nederland niet verhoogd (sterfte binnen 2 weken gerapporteerd - rondom 97% gerapporteerd). Wel was de sterfte licht verhoogd in de gecombineerde regio’s Groningen/Friesland/Drenthe en Overijssel/Flevoland/Gelderland. In totaal zijn 2.698 sterfgevallen gemeld, gewoonlijk verwachten we in deze tijd van het jaar tussen de 2.426 en 2.733 sterfgevallen. De gemelde sterfte aan laboratoriumbevestigde COVID-19 was in diezelfde week 13.

 

or for 24 European countries, see Source: Euromomo

 

image.png.78dce50f7247adc29bb31c3f7d04b3b1.png

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3 hours ago, Jack100 said:

I was hoping someone would come along and rid us of the little flu by now !

According to Bolsonaro and "The Donald" there is no problem at all. Never been in the greatest nation, with his supreme leadership...

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3 hours ago, Proboscis said:

That is what Western countries said about Corona virus - the previous SARS did not progress as far as Europe and America so no worries. But this one has. Oops!

 

In my humble opinion, the worst case scenario, assuming that the virus does not mutate into being a worse killer, would be 1% of the population, minus the 40,000 that it has killed so far. In excess of 600,000 in the UK alone. That would be the case if no one did anything at all.

 

The best possible scenario would be zero cases and zero deaths. At the rate things are going, that can only be achieved either with a vaccine or some medication that deals with the virus in those infected. In the meantime, we are trying for a mitigating scenario - although this is not being done very well in the UK.

 

We are not experiencing the best case scenario in the UK. We are experiencing a situation that is worse than any other European country right now and we could be in for a real shock in September as the infection rate is likely to increase dramatically when the weather turns cold, people move indoors and the virus transmits more effectively.

I think Boris learnt his lesson.... at the highest mortality costs per million inhabitants on the world. Reason to beleive him and re-elect .... ? 

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1 hour ago, japanese said:

  

And look at Sweden.  No lockdown. Schools remained open and within a hairs breadth of herd immunity.

 

It seems to me the places that fared worst are those that decided on strict lockdowns.  Chicken or egg perhaps.  But the communities that stayed open faring better suggests the lockdowns may be the cause, rather than the solution.

 

Further, attempts to slow the virus merely exacerbate the problem.  The longer it is around, the more likely it is to infect vulnerable people.  And if they do manage to stretch this out to the winter through inane delaying tactics, then they may well create further deaths.  Especially if as some reports that immunity may only last a few months are correct.

 

Back to Sweden.  Analysis shows roughly 81% of people already have a level of immunity, possibly from previous covid infections, ie the common cold.  To reach herd immunity, 17% of the population need to have been infected.  Somewhat lower than early predictions of 60% or 70%.

 

The wise solution is to protect the vulnerable, and get the young and healthy  infected and recovered as quickly as possible.  Then the vulnerable can rejoin the population.

 

It is simple and basically what people always do naturally.  Sick people stay home.  Vulnerable people do their best to stay out of the way of sick people.  It is how humans have dealt with things over the millennia as community dynamics have developed to deal with epidemics.  It depends on individual responsibility.  The central management of this issue is what is causing the majority of deaths.  Further, it will cause more deaths - cancer patients are one example - and destroy economies, bringing even more death and general misery upon people.

 

Frankly, anyone cheering on facemasks, lockdowns and such-like have been seriously misguided by the media and the political establishment.

I do not know the thickness of the "hears breadth" you mean, but wiser to look to more recent publications. 

Sweden exists of a few cities and a LOT of social distancing in between. Still: 75.826 cases confirmed and 5.536 deaths with a population of 10,2 mln. Compared with Norway: 8.984 confirmed casualties and 253 deaths, with 5,3 mln inhabitants, Denmark: 13.147 resp 609 and population 5,8 million. A disaster in Sweden.

 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-swedens-herd-immunity-approach-backfires-with-low-antibody-rate/news-story/5417a20f4f3298d981968d897965c403

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-sweden-how-anders-tegnells-unique-approach-to-battling-the-covid19-pandemic-backfired/news-story/3989556c1eb049024c53244e5d3b236a

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1 hour ago, Patts said:

This one article pretty much debunks everything you have just said about Sweden:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

 

You haven't factored in that different geographical location have wildly varying outcomes which could be due to environmental conditions or differing strains of the virus but without lockdown some European countries could have seen millions of confirmed cases and hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths.  

 

Where the hell did you get 17% from for heard immunity, utter nonsense. Every single paper I've looked at suggest figures of 40% to 70% to reach immunity and most papers say that you need 90 to 95% to stop a virus spreading entirely. 

Thanks for the article.  I see a subsequent post disagreeing with me too.  I hope my response below addresses that too.

 

I note the article you point to itself says that economically the Swedish model worked for the first few months.  It did not fail in and of itself.  Rather the world economy subsequently collapsed and naturally that affected Sweden.

 

Regarding mortality rates, countries that have had early success keeping numbers down have found outbreaks popping up.  They will continue to pay whack-a-mole no doubt because they have failed to eradicate the virus (likely impossible) or achieve herd immunity.  Sweden has virtually achieved that.  In the near/medium term they may well show higher numbers than many places.  But they are also lower than many.  And their numbers will be stable whilst others are more likely to grow.  We will have to view the outcomes in the future.  I am sure we will eventually find there are other contributing factors in each community too.

 

Regarding the likelihood of herd immunity needing 17% infected/recovery rate, perhaps you can return the favor of me reading your linked-to article by reading this analysis.  There is more than one thing that contributes to herd immunity rates, and there are things still unknown to epidemiologists of course:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/

 

This one article pretty much debunks everything you have just said about Sweden:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

 

You haven't factored in that different geographical location have wildly varying outcomes which could be due to environmental conditions or differing strains of the virus but without lockdown some European countries could have seen millions of confirmed cases and hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths.  

 

Where the hell did you get 17% from for heard immunity, utter nonsense. Every single paper I've looked at suggest figures of 40% to 70% to reach immunity and most papers say that you need 90 to 95% to stop a virus spreading entirely. 

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34 minutes ago, japanese said:

  

Thanks for the article.  I see a subsequent post disagreeing with me too.  I hope my response below addresses that too.

 

I note the article you point to itself says that economically the Swedish model worked for the first few months.  It did not fail in and of itself.  Rather the world economy subsequently collapsed and naturally that affected Sweden.

 

Regarding mortality rates, countries that have had early success keeping numbers down have found outbreaks popping up.  They will continue to pay whack-a-mole no doubt because they have failed to eradicate the virus (likely impossible) or achieve herd immunity.  Sweden has virtually achieved that.  In the near/medium term they may well show higher numbers than many places.  But they are also lower than many.  And their numbers will be stable whilst others are more likely to grow.  We will have to view the outcomes in the future.  I am sure we will eventually find there are other contributing factors in each community too.

 

Regarding the likelihood of herd immunity needing 17% infected/recovery rate, perhaps you can return the favor of me reading your linked-to article by reading this analysis.  There is more than one thing that contributes to herd immunity rates, and there are things still unknown to epidemiologists of course:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/

 

Have you actually read the paper they are quote to back up their 17% HIT number? 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf

 

It's full of assumptions and estimates, nothing concrete at all.

 

From Nottingham Uni:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198238/declines-covid-19-cases-herd-immunity-says/

 

The papers I have read from Oxford university suggest Herd immunity is reached once 90 to 95% of people are vaccinated

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How depressing!  I sincerely hope it's an over-estimate.  With better protection for the elderly and those in care homes, I'd say 30,000 is more likely.  Maybe it's a gamble the UK is willing to take.  Obviously, it's pretty good to be in Thailand right now, but I'm sure it is heading for economic catastrophe and will be no better placed to handle another outbreak which must be on the cards sooner or later.  What a horrible situation for any country- your money or your life, and possibly both.

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Hey Drizzle and others like you, get yourselves some air plane tickets and go to the

HOT USA, tell the infected people that it is just a flu.  Maybe you will live to get back to your

Thai homes, and then maybe not.  I think that there are many people in the USA that

may start to take this Corona virus seriously now that there are so many that are

catching it every day.  I seen a story of a man in the US in his 30s who stated he would

not be wearing a mask or worrying about social distancing. Well he is not worried today

as he caught covid 19 and is dead.  The UK and many countries have to plan ahead if there

is no vaccine developed before this Winter, or as they call it Flu Season.  Think ahead,

be cautious, and maybe still be alive in the Spring next year. That is my hope for the

future anyway.

Geezer

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11 minutes ago, englishoak said:

Worst case scenario is they are still peddling this fear mongering BS next spring. 

First of all it was 500,000 then maybe 250,000 and then it was 5,000 to 20,000. They haven't got a clue, it's just modelling scenarios. The UK deaths would have been around 25,000 lower if the hospitals hadn't kicked out people back to care homes for the surge that never came. Over 100 of today's total of 138 was in care homes or at home.

Edited by tribalfusion001
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12 hours ago, puipuitom said:

I do not know the thickness of the "hears breadth" you mean, but wiser to look to more recent publications. 

Sweden exists of a few cities and a LOT of social distancing in between. Still: 75.826 cases confirmed and 5.536 deaths with a population of 10,2 mln. Compared with Norway: 8.984 confirmed casualties and 253 deaths, with 5,3 mln inhabitants, Denmark: 13.147 resp 609 and population 5,8 million. A disaster in Sweden.

 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-swedens-herd-immunity-approach-backfires-with-low-antibody-rate/news-story/5417a20f4f3298d981968d897965c403

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-sweden-how-anders-tegnells-unique-approach-to-battling-the-covid19-pandemic-backfired/news-story/3989556c1eb049024c53244e5d3b236a

Interesting to note is that a majority of the deaths occurred in nursing homes where the average age of death is .....the normal average age of death pre covid.  The government screwed up ( Just like in New York).  Also of note, a large population of Somalis died in Sweden due to issues related to Melanin ( not being able to get vitamin D in sufficient quantities), customs of covering up and not getting any sun, as well as close contact with others.

 

Remove the above two scenarios, and Sweden would not have near the numbers the fear and scare mongers like to keep trotting out.  

 

To note, I was reading about and also watching an interview with a Swedish doctor and she was saying that the average person in a nursing home is only sent there when they are basically in a hospice situation and the average length of their remaining lifetime is 30 days.

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2 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

First of all it was 500,000 then maybe 250,000 and then it was 5,000 to 20,000. They haven't got a clue, it's just modelling scenarios. The UK deaths would have been around 25,000 lower if the hospitals hadn't kicked out people back to care homes for the surge that never came. Over 100 of today's total of 138 was in care homes or at home.

All those care home deaths in UK are individual tragedies, but so is having to stick a relative in a care home in the first place. Many of those who died had dementia; for them and their families (and the NHS), in reality, it should be a relief - here I speak from perspective of watching an uncle and an aunt develop dementia. The aunt spent last three years of her life in care homes, often knowing where she was and wanting to go home, but needing 24-hour supervision and then 24-hour care, once the dementia worsened and she became, on occasion, violent.  She died two years ago, in her late 70s; if she’d lived, and been carried off by Covid, we would have been relieved. 

 

Another perspective is this: for men in England, the age-standardised mortality rate was 40.5% lower in 2017 than it was in 1990. For women, 30.5% lower in 2017 than it was in 1990. 

 

1390726580_ScreenShot2020-07-15at07_23_47.jpg.b585791a9d63fded932c1dd4576a11ef.jpg

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/changingtrendsinmortalityinenglandandwales1990to2017/experimentalstatistics

 

The risk of dying now in UK with Covid around is still probably a fair degree lower than the general risk of pegging it even 20 years ago.

 

I’d rather have some semblance of a ‘normal’ life, accepting the risks and mitigating them to an extent that it is practical and reasonable. Masks in shops? Sure. Masks walking around outside? No thanks. 

 

Destroying economies and setting back a generation of children and young people (in developed countries, the impact in genuinely poor countries is far worse) for a disease that is highly contagious but for the 'average' person under 60 has low risk of serious illness or dying?

 

My prediction: in the next 2 years there's not going to be a vaccine that is safe, affordable and effective and it's delusional to base policy on "there'll be a vaccine to save us". A vaccine, ironically, could be just as risky for vulnerable groups as the virus itself. Far better to accept that Covid is now endemic and for governments and individuals to work on how to deal with this fact in such a way that doesn't deny people decent education, employment and the ability to live without constant fear.

 

 

 

 

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On 7/14/2020 at 1:21 AM, drizzel said:

In my country The Netherlands the checked how many deaths, in the 2018 we had more deaths with the flu.

No lockdown and no hysteria.
The whole world is chasing the WHO, incomprehensible Bill Gates immediately fills his pockets with money.

We have always survived viruses for thousands of years.
Without a vaccine, just use common sense, the measures they are now adopting and using will cost far more deaths than they save lives.

This is my opinion, hopefully everyone thinks for themselves!

Respect for everyone on the planet.

 

You are aware the Corona Virus is mitigated because people went into a lockdown, and people are shielding at home. 

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16 hours ago, Scot123 said:

7 times the lunatic N.F. has made lunatic predictions causing devastation a man receives money from Bill and WHO while holding a top job for the UK government. He has caused devastation and cost the country billions. H e should have been tried for fraud after Mad Cows let alone Foot and Mouth and now C19. There should be consequences to every single person who lies about a death or causes panic by lies. How can a doctor be allowed to practice who signed a death certificate as C19 when the poor man <deleted> himself in the head in a successful suicide. Why is that doctor not in prison? Who is going to be held accountable for the 7 Nightingale hospitals built that never see a patient and quietly closed, who is going to be imprisoned for the deaths of now the hundreds of thousands having died because of the lockdown in the uk (figure of 8000+ a day, yes over eight thousand a day). Criminal. 

 

Nightingale hospitals haven't been touched because the lockdown did work to a certain extent, by not engulfing the hospital system. 

 

Go see some states in the USA how hospitals are beginning to creek. 

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