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Trump issues tough response to China's treatment of Hong Kong


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24 minutes ago, car720 said:

My Chinese wife tells me that what the world should be doing is targeting the CCP members, both financially and with bullets.

 

CCP members to mainland Chinese population is in ratio of approximately  1 to 17.  

Most don't even know about it. 

 

You wife and yourself have one opinion on 1 out of 17 Chinese and another opinion on other 16 ?

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, sscc said:

 

 

Regardless of this new Security Law and whatever consequence,  the trend will continue as it has been for year/decade :

Mainland China is on the way up  ;  Hong Kong is on the way down. 

 

Regarding the currency,  HKD will continue to peg with USD at 7.7-7.8 HKD to $1 USD  in the near future.  However,  USD is going de-value and on the way down in the months ahead,  so HKD is going down hand-in-hand with USD.  

 

De-pegging currency exchange rate is VERY BIG issue whether it is good or bad move.  No way it is going to happen in a year or two and near future.

 

 

  

 

 

Points taken. China is creating free ports like in Hainan which will severely challenged Hong Kong trading status. It will still maintain its financial status but eroding fast with Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen likely to replace that status. As for the peg, agree with you that it will be hard but there is a fear that Trump may limit Hong Kong banks' access to USD thus putting an end to the peg. I believed that idiot may resort to this nuclear option to appease his base. 

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Excellent news for the Euro. Hong Kong has been eyeing a peg to the Euro instead of the USD for some time.

 

"Is a HKD move to the EUR from the USD feasible? Sure it is – and if the errant behaviour of Mr Trump continues, it may well become a necessity."

 

https://www.asiatimesfinancial.com/a-hong-kong-dollar-peg-to-the-euro-instead-of-the-trump-dollar

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For those discussion about South China sea in this thread,   From China standpoint,  

 

Hong Kong is one issue.

 

Taiwan is one issue 

 

South China Sea is one issue. 

 

North Korea is one issue --  China had almost lost out in 2017,  that was before the very first Kim-Xi

meeting in late March 2018. 

 

and blah, blah, blah. 

 

Each of these involve different players, historical background, and sets of parameters.  

Of course USA influence is the big, big factor.   

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Points taken. China is creating free ports like in Hainan which will severely challenged Hong Kong trading status. It will still maintain its financial status but eroding fast with Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen likely to replace that status. As for the peg, agree with you that it will be hard but there is a fear that Trump may limit Hong Kong banks' access to USD thus putting an end to the peg. I believed that idiot may resort to this nuclear option to appease his base. 

 

 

Hong Kong problem is rather complicated,  so is the 'One Country, Two Systems'  set-up for both

China-Hong Kong  1997-2047   and  China-Macau 1999-2049.     

 

Hong Kong had done very well in light industry manufacturing in very old days ( years/decades after WW2 ),  and international import-export and trade,  and subsequently as world class shipping hub.  

Gradually,  Hong Kong had been shifting to be an international  "mover and shaker" heavens as of now.

 

One backbone factor remains :  Hong Kong is very rich in both public and private sectors.   But the wealth is not well shared among the population. 

 

Outsiders are not able to understand for various reasons.  

Eric Loh,  you may know some of it.  Reading your post,  I just do not know your background and information search etc.  

 

 

For those comment about HKD exchange rate.    USA and/or Trump cannot  de-peg HKD to US$  no matter what they do.   Only Beijing and Hong Kong can make that decision.   

In view of all the uncertainty and change,  you think Beijing and Hong Kong will make such BIG move now ? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, sscc said:

 

 

Hong Kong problem is rather complicated,  so is the 'One Country, Two Systems'  set-up for both

China-Hong Kong  1997-2047   and  China-Macau 1999-2049.     

 

Hong Kong had done very well in light industry manufacturing in very old days ( years/decades after WW2 ),  and international import-export and trade,  and subsequently as world class shipping hub.  

Gradually,  Hong Kong had been shifting to be an international  "mover and shaker" heavens as of now.

 

One backbone factor remains :  Hong Kong is very rich in both public and private sectors.   But the wealth is not well shared among the population. 

 

Outsiders are not able to understand for various reasons.  

Eric Loh,  you may know some of it.  Reading your post,  I just do not know your background and information search etc.  

 

 

For those comment about HKD exchange rate.    USA and/or Trump cannot  de-peg HKD to US$  no matter what they do.   Only Beijing and Hong Kong can make that decision.   

In view of all the uncertainty and change,  you think Beijing and Hong Kong will make such BIG move now ? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The One Country 2 Systems is indeed an unique political arrangement. China could have just took over Hong Kong when the lease expired in 1997. I think better sense prevailed with the Chinese government to avoid a panic and a brain drain and also capital flights. 90s China GDP was only a fraction of what it is today and Hong Kong was very important for her economic contribution and also the ports for the South China provinces and well developed financial infrastructure. Economic situation has changed much since then and China had time to prepare for a Hong Kong replacement. 
 

Things would have remained status quo if not for the resurgence of pro democracy elements that started with the Umbrella Movement for political and social changes. The Basic Law has not changed but the National Security Law was added to prevent secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces. Most countries have such laws. China need cohesion and fear threats of widening protests in the mainland. 
 

You highlighted a good point of huge gap in income inequality which was one of the demand of the Umbrella Movement protest by mostly young people. China must do something about this increasing income divide. 
 

I think China would not do anything that dramatic to de-peg as Hong Kong is a good source for US dollar and also they fear capital flights that may have contagion effect on the China economy. They will

continue to absorb US pressure and wait for an opportune time to react. That’s always their strategy. 
 


 

 

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16 hours ago, sscc said:

 

CCP members to mainland Chinese population is in ratio of approximately  1 to 17.  

Most don't even know about it. 

 

You wife and yourself have one opinion on 1 out of 17 Chinese and another opinion on other 16 ?

 

 

 

 

 

I should have been more succinct for sure.  I was refering to the main front of the party which from memory is only about 500 people.

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17 hours ago, sscc said:

 

CCP members to mainland Chinese population is in ratio of approximately  1 to 17.  

Most don't even know about it. 

 

You wife and yourself have one opinion on 1 out of 17 Chinese and another opinion on other 16 ?

 

 

 

 

 

Around 90 million, so more like 1 to 14. 

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China has been consistently lying about its GDP annually for over a decade by at least 2%, plenty of evidence out there these last few years. China is one big conjob. Should watch a documentary called the China hustle and how its scammed hundreds of billions by floating sham companies on the the US stock market.

 

HK was done a long time ago, the smart ones left then and the ones who hung about did so to make more money, not many surprised about Bejing moving in early but the price will be high. 

 

HK assimilation was always certain but Xi has become impatient while his position is weakening. The problem of being leader absolute is when things dont go well the blame is all on them. Xi wanted the chair and hes going to be judged as responsible for everyones well being and affluence, just as its going to slow down in growth, and hes only a bear of little brain is our poo, all fluff and stuff. Problem is the others salivating over the opportunity to bring him down are just as bad if not worse...  

 

Good on Trump for doing something, there have been far too many taking the Chinese bribe for far too long

 

 

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8 hours ago, Damual Travesty said:

The future is going to no longer be one of international free trade - with China at the forefront, I expect soon enough that things are going to break down into trading blocks.

How stupid and short-sighted was it to scratch the TPP......

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