"a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year. "

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The worst possible  predication is  75% less(tourism revenue)  than usual?

It is a kind of amazing to me.

No new international arrivals both by land and air for indefinite period.

No new check-ins at any  levels of accommodations.

No demands  for the local tours & tourist-oriented retailers.

Where does the rest of the 25% come from?

Does that 25% come from the spending by the Thai local domestic travelers, foreign retirees, and the detained-tourists unable to leave Thailand  due to airline flight suspension?

In such a circumstance, 25% retainer looks quite sizable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why do they never show a picture of the large crystal ball in the offices of TAT ?

9 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

These are not random numbers.

A whole lot of thinking went into producing this latest set of numbers from TAT, during a Coffee Break. 

Sooner they get someone in charge that knows what they are doing the better!!! 

6 hours ago, cardinalblue said:

Better to play darts...

No. Is forbidden, barred, prohibited, illegal.

75 percent drop (only) in tourist revenue must be positive, since other news articles have mentioned 80 percent drop in number of tourists; i.e. 8 million in 2020 vs. 40 million in 2019 (39.8 million to be more precise).

24 minutes ago, black tabby said:

"a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year. "

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The worst possible  predication is  75% less(tourism revenue)  than usual?

It is a kind of amazing to me.

No new international arrivals both by land and air for indefinite period.

No new check-ins at any  levels of accommodations.

No demands  for the local tours & tourist-oriented retailers.

Where does the rest of the 25% come from?

Does that 25% come from the spending by the Thai local domestic travelers, foreign retirees, and the detained-tourists unable to leave Thailand  due to airline flight suspension?

In such a circumstance, 25% retainer looks quite sizable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't want foreigners in their restaurant even though they've been here all through the crisis!!! They really do beggar belief!

6 hours ago, BritManToo said:

More likely is the borders remain closed and no tourists at all next year.

Even if they do decide to open the borders it will be too late for this year.

Most people book their holiday far in advance and people every where are worried about losing their job.

Airfare?No one knows what the prices are going to be?

Not easy to plan ahead under these circumstances and for a lot of countries the outbreak of covid is still getting worse.

Let alone travel insurance,are they going to cover covid?

Troubling times indeed.

Maybe we should start to realize that the good old days are just a few months behind us.

I know many Thai workers who went back to their province,there will be no money to make but at least they will have food.

Good luck Thailand.

 

2019 Tourist revenue totaled 3.2Tn THB. The projection of 676.7Bn THB for 2021 is not only pure speculation, it's closer to an 80% drop in tourism. A smart move on TATs part would be to encourage the expats who are spending money now in Thailand to stay by extending the amnesty until the end of the year.

Up to 40 million visitors last year.

From Jan to March - 3 months , pretty much normal and then ZERO. This may continue for the rest of the year so 75% is  probably a conservative figure - even if tourists dribble back in by New Year the damage will be done.

 

businesses will have disappeared, capital is missing, service personnel will have left, visitors will be reluctant to accept the draconian quarantines and health checks as well as restrictions on touring. 

Thailand will have to start from scratch - and of course will inevitably miss a golden opportunity to correct the errors of the past.

Essentially the statements and dictums from above show that their is no new or creative thinking or attempt to build a better industry - just the same ol', same ol'..........

with millions of unemployed

 

 

75% drop is about 75 billion $ and a GDP drop of 15%. Of course nobody wants to talk about it. 6-9 million people without jobs. They are the ones needed most support. The government should over another round of support 5000 baht a month until we can see light at the end of the tunnel

10 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

they must be bored

45 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

These are not random numbers.

A whole lot of thinking went into producing this latest set of numbers from TAT, during a Coffee Break. 

must have been a tea break those numbers must be coming from reading tea leaves

2 hours ago, sambum said:

See that policy worked wonders for the USA and the UK! (Even after Trump's U-turn on the masks issue!)

Considering Thailand has - if testing all the dead and hospital staff - only tested about 0.4% of the rest of the population, your argument about uSA and UK figures seems mute. How many of the 25,000 road deaths tested positive for covid ? No, that;s right, we'll  never know

10 hours ago, ezzra said:

with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

 I think everybody and everyone sprouting whatever numbers is a total waste of mouthing off.....  nobody knows anything .... untimable, unquantifiable and certainly

silly to think that you or anyone knows...

This is a perfect example of a fairy tale.

2 hours ago, sambum said:

And then he/she is gone! Whereas for this year (at least!) he/she is not here in the first place! Therefore leaving the slim pickings to be had from the ex pats who are here week in week out and putting a conservative estimate of half a million baht a year EACH into the Thai economy!

 

And at least I have enough common sense to realise that not every tourist spends 100,000 baht in 2 weeks!

 

 A trip for two weeks for two people costs around 69,841 baht.  Yeah they are gone after 2 weeks only for others to take their place. Expat money from an economic point of view are technically nothing for the Thai economy and why they decided to make you pay additionally with a " keep money here" policy if you want any visa. There is so few of you and there are so much of them ( tourists) , it is really immature to compare the spending power of expats with the one of tourists. I thought that was pretty clear. Otherwise I can guarantee you they would of kissed your feet to just to stay and not come up with stupid measures making it hard for you each year.

Notice I didn't mention anything about covid situation as it is irellevant. I want to see how the expat population will save thai economy from the upcoming catastrophe.  Come on , don't fool yourself.

Yet another Tourist related issue...to which Thailand proclaims it's non reliant to,

11 hours ago, ezzra said:

with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

The real problem is this vaccine must be widely available.  

Our government has informed us these current measures are probably going to be around for 2-3 years and to prepare accordingly.  

It's not good, it's not good!!  

1 hour ago, jvs said:

Even if they do decide to open the borders it will be too late for this year.

Most people book their holiday far in advance and people every where are worried about losing their job.

Airfare?No one knows what the prices are going to be?

Not easy to plan ahead under these circumstances and for a lot of countries the outbreak of covid is still getting worse.

Let alone travel insurance,are they going to cover covid?

Troubling times indeed.

Maybe we should start to realize that the good old days are just a few months behind us.

I know many Thai workers who went back to their province,there will be no money to make but at least they will have food.

Good luck Thailand.

 

There are no people travelling this year even if the borders were flung wide open.  I mean come on.  

You can't come into thailand or anywhere without COVID insurance.  

Nobody is going to allow travel and then welcome back their residents in their country in a pandemic like this.  It's been proven beyond any doubt it just brings more cases in.  

This has nothing to do with the government of Thailand I'm afraid.  

Don't know any one who has actually been tested for Covid so how can you say that Thailand Covid free. Let's wait and see if and when neighbouring countries will admit Tourists and under what conditions. So far as I aware no South East Asian Countries have opened their borders. Thailand has already lost peak tourist December/January so it is safe to assume there will be Zero income from tourist until at least 2022. Meanwhile take opportunity to modernise infrastructure in Tourist Islands like Koh Samui which presently looks like slums of one of the poorest countries in main tourist areas not fit for purpose let alone tourists.

1 hour ago, Rockbottom said:

2019 Tourist revenue totaled 3.2Tn THB. The projection of 676.7Bn THB for 2021 is not only pure speculation, it's closer to an 80% drop in tourism. A smart move on TATs part would be to encourage the expats who are spending money now in Thailand to stay by extending the amnesty until the end of the year.

Also as well they need to back the farangs who are have family here to return with easier entry rules. Farangs spend money

9 hours ago, madmitch said:

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

sure, but they win money with that job. and the other are at home, so.... voilà.

41 minutes ago, jvs said:

Even if they do decide to open the borders it will be too late for this year.

Most people book their holiday far in advance and people every where are worried about losing their job.

Airfare?No one knows what the prices are going to be?

Not easy to plan ahead under these circumstances and for a lot of countries the outbreak of covid is still getting worse.

Let alone travel insurance,are they going to cover covid?

Troubling times indeed.

Maybe we should start to realize that the good old days are just a few months behind us.

I know many Thai workers who went back to their province,there will be no money to make but at least they will have food.

Good luck Thailand.

 

Hello, jvs,

Yes, Thai workers who got the place to home is rather lucky.

Since rest of their families often engage in self-sustaining old-style farming in rural areas.

They can grow rice, vegetables(or get them in their swap trade with neighbors) and raise chickens in their backyards for eggs and meat.

One fortunate thing is, that a lot of Thais still use firewood and charcoal for cooking.

So they don't have to pay for the fuel they use(other than gasoline for their motorcycles).

Life of the urban poor(reliant on inbound tourism)  will be very hard;  they have no places to run for another life.

Quite sad those otherwise good people might be  forced into illicit activities  or begging as the victims of circumstances.

1 hour ago, Rockbottom said:

2019 Tourist revenue totaled 3.2Tn THB. The projection of 676.7Bn THB for 2021 is not only pure speculation, it's closer to an 80% drop in tourism. A smart move on TATs part would be to encourage the expats who are spending money now in Thailand to stay by extending the amnesty until the end of the year.

I don't think it's really up to TAT, but I see your  point!

5 hours ago, tadpole22 said:

all the time you got 2 weeks quarantine and 100,000 usd insurance

not many will come to thailand

The insurance is easy - my existing policy now includes that....it's the quarantine that's the kicker. 

Opening borders would be the first step, if an improvement is desired.

The 25% left is pretty much the amount of domestic tourism (assuming that the economy doesn't collapse)

Reading between the lines - Thailand will keep borders closed in 2021.

This snowbird being sick of all the changing rules has booked for Bali. Tee Rak is coming over too. I hope they appreciate my money more than in the LOL.

40 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

There are no people travelling this year even if the borders were flung wide open.  I mean come on.  

You can't come into thailand or anywhere without COVID insurance.  

Nobody is going to allow travel and then welcome back their residents in their country in a pandemic like this.  It's been proven beyond any doubt it just brings more cases in.  

This has nothing to do with the government of Thailand I'm afraid.  

 You don't need covid insurance to go to Europe, USA, Mexico, several islands in the Pacific.... the 100,000 USD requirement is a Thai specific idea.

If countries would test people without symptoms, they would all find community spread of the virus. Absolutely not true that all new infections come from outside.. arrivals are all tested, therefore cases are found.. internally, maybe 1% of the population is tested.

look at Vietnam. Nobody allowed to enter, but domestic tourists in Da Nang... then an outbreak. Where did the first person get the virus in the country?

We need to learn to live with the virus as it won't go away - even with the famous vaccine which may be 50-75% effective. There are vaccines against TB, hepatitis and still many cases every year

5 hours ago, Deli said:

Newly appointed finance minister can send the bill for damage caused to the commies next door

Agree, in fact China owes reparations worldwide.  Look what their Wuhan-19 has done.