Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

By The Nation

 

 

In a worst-case scenario, the Thai tourism sector is expected to generate revenue of Bt676.7 billion next year due to the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said.

 

 

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

In the best-case scenario, the sector is expected to generate Bt1.52 trillion revenue next year, far lower than the Bt3.93 trillion predicted before the outbreak began.

 

If the sector quickly recovers early next year or in the second quarter next year, it will have revenue of Bt1.525 trillion of which Bt977 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. The number of tourist arrivals is expected to reach 20.5 million next year.

 

If the sector recovers to a medium level during middle of next year or late in the third quarter, it is expected to generate revenue of Bt1.108 trillion of which Bt617.5 billion will be from foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourists is expected to reach 12.5 million.

 

If recovery happens late next year, the sector is estimated to post revenue of between Bt675.7 billion to Bt754.8 billion of which Bt296 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourists is estimated at 6.14 million.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30392672

 

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This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

Edited August 8, 20205 yr by Chelseafan

with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

The numbers that TAT likes to play with are subject to the prosperity of the Chinese people, and their interest in traveling to Thailand.  Chinese are health conscious, fiscally conservative now more than ever.   Not sure they will be streaming over like they once did.  

Can i come back and quarantine on top of that big ocean rock for my 2 weeks?  can fish off it for food

Quote

 

 

its a 66% to 75% drop in revenue, a loss over 2 trillion baht.

i have an idea, lets shut down production too,

and print money to hand out to everyone that lost their job and business.

never mind election, those that get the bill dont have voting rights yet anyway,

or arent even born yet

It all sounds a bit Golden Shot .. 

Up abit , left abit , no no , left abit , no too much , down abit , right fire .! 

Bloody missed again .. 

7 minutes ago, Justgrazing said:

It all sounds a bit Golden Shot .. 

Up abit , left abit , no no , left abit , no too much , down abit , right fire .! 

Bloody missed again .. 

Yes! 

"Bernie, the bolt" is probably the most appropriate response to these predictions!

basket <> all your eggs

4 hours ago, rooster59 said:

If the sector quickly recovers early next year or in the second quarter next year, it will have revenue of Bt1.525 trillion of which Bt977 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. The number of tourist arrivals is expected to reach 20.5 million next year.

More likely is the borders remain closed and no tourists at all next year.

Better to play darts...

I like the bit where he says it could plummet, Hey Somchai it already has nose dived 

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

tourism revenue plummets over 75 percent. 

 

in the headline what exactly is a per cent ? like are we talking change for a dollar or ? 

No one is going hungry in this village.  They eat things they grow,  harvest or catch everyday, not just in an emergency.   We like watermelon brand rice and there is usually one or 2 x 10kg bags in kitchen.  My B-in-L grows 2 rai of sticky rice for Mar on some of her land...it usually gets shared around.  I have 5 x 50L boxes with farang friendly food.  If things get tough and food stocks are low in the supermarket I think we and others can survive. I would imagine a lot of villages all over Thailand would survive.

With any luck all the TV whingers will disappear. 

4 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.

 

So this is a worst case worst case scenario! What about the worst case worst case worst case number?

 

Good to see the TAT back in business throwing random numbers around.

 

 

Maybe a good time to woo the expats living in Thailand to stay in Thailand?

Every expat, on average, brings 50,000 Baht into the country, every month!

There will be no foreign income from tourism now or next year so the figure is Zero better get realistic don't have to be a mathematician.

I think more correct numbers will be 80 to 90%.

And let Thai unemployed just suffer more as these monkey army goverment won't do anything as only implementing new crazy rules for tourist to follow before their real holiday can start. So just forget it. NOT ONE WILL COME 

11 minutes ago, blueontour said:

With any luck all the TV whingers will disappear. 

Not likely. A hardy lot they are... or we are...

What good does it do announcing all these figures. What the country needs are plans to recover not doom and gloom prophecies. 

Utterly Pathetic, destroying your total economy for two years, mass unemployment and homelessness for less than a day of road deaths ! World has totally gone completely and nuts

Edited August 9, 20205 yr by RichardColeman

...just wait until Thailand gets Wave 2 of COVID.

For 4 mounts there have been no tourists and it does not look any different in the near future.

So I make no tourists down 100% maybe I'm NOT GOOD A MATHS but 0 coming in  makes 0.

And the regulations that will be in place do not make Thailand a good place for tourists topped

with a high THB and extreme racism not a good advert for wish you were here!

The resent Marathon excluding foreign participation and the 2 prices for Thais and foreigners not very welcoming. I have a Thai wife or I would go elsewhere, so I'm not really a tourist.

If you what to generate more money ,extend the amnesty to at least 6 months after the 26 of

Sept. so we can all travel around Thailand and spend our money. It's as simple as that.

TAT officials are so free that they are coming out with numbers every day to gain sympathy. I wonder what comes next before they are deemed irrelevant. Maybe they ran out of ideas for a fix so announcing numbers everyday would be good for the Thais to buy lottery. 

" .. could plummet over 75 per cent"

ALREADY HAS plummeted by 99% would be more accurate !  

Manipulating the figures ! why not be honest it will be 90+% easily. Thailand are going to find the economy worst than the crisis of 1997 when the Thai baht crashed . Welcome to Thailand come and stay in one our exclusive hotels for a 14 day quarantine holiday sitting in your hotel suite for the duration cost 500,000 baht Or for those who can’t afford it you can have a similar deal in a fleapit hotel for 50,000+ baht. ????LOL????

Meanwhile we will progress with the purchase of a 1.3 billion baht aircraft for the Generals to get from A to B