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Tourism revenue could plummet over 75 per cent

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  • Popular Post
25 minutes ago, tjo o tjim said:

...just wait until Thailand gets Wave 2 of COVID.

I am sure that you meant first wave

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  • Chelseafan
    Chelseafan

    This represents a drop of 9 per cent from the previous worst-case scenario forecast for this year of Bt742.5 billion, a sharp decline of 75 per cent from around Bt3 trillion last year.   So

  • Mr Meeseeks
    Mr Meeseeks

    I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.   Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...  

  • with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

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  • Popular Post
8 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

If you what to generate more money ,extend the amnesty to at least 6 months after the 26 of

Sept. so we can all travel around Thailand and spend our money. It's as simple as that.

Why would I want to travel around Thailand when immigration insist on me reporting where I am staying I would spend more time at an IO than sightseeing ☹️☹️☹️

1 hour ago, hansnl said:

Maybe a good time to woo the expats living in Thailand to stay in Thailand?

Every expat, on average, brings 50,000 Baht into the country, every month!

Thee Immigration office sets then limit for at least :  65,000 THB  into Thailand.

Just now, puck2 said:

Thee Immigration office sets then limit for at least :  65,000 THB  into Thailand.

Maybe Hansnl has a Thai wife?

Edited by ratcatcher

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Projecting numbers whilst there is no clarity about compulsory quarantine on arrival in Thailand and the possibility of further quarantine when tourists go home makes all these projections nonsense. I certainly wouldn't take a holiday for say 3 weeks when a further 4 weeks would have to be spent in quarantine. 7 weeks off work and 2 weeks of expensive quarantine in Thailand and the equivalent of 4 weeks jailed up!

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37 minutes ago, naryan said:

I'm NOT GOOD A MATHS but 0 coming in  makes 0

Yeah, but you don't work for the TAT ! 

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3 hours ago, madmitch said:

I suppose the TAT statistician(s) have to do something but it surely is a total waste of time coming up with figures based on nothing but hypothesis and guesswork.

Correct!

Figures based on historical data and balls in the air.

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thailands-domestic-tourism-provided-4-times-the-number-of-international-travellers-in-2019

 

The other small factor that they have not taken into account is the fact that after they eventually allow tourists back in,is how many will actually want to fly long haul to Thailand wearing face masks etc.

 

1 hour ago, blueontour said:

With any luck all the TV whingers will disappear. 

Maybe if a young auto parts magnet can send the army back to barracks one day, whinging will become a thing of the past.   Until then, whinging will continue and rightfully so.  

“Buy when there’s blood on the streets—even if the blood is your own.” 

I live in the present. The forecasts, quesswork, projections, fortune-telling and wishes are pointless. The media, talking-head politicians and repeaters seeming add to the fear, anxiety and hopelessness of those that believe them. 

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2 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

I was in Pattaya yesterday and the beach was empty. It looked pristine.

 

Businesses gone everywhere; boarded up, shut down, for sale and rent, gutted out, entire blocks fenced off...

 

The odd foreigner wandering about, but it was like a ghost town.

 

The party is truly over for anyone involved in the tourism sector. And for the foreseeable.

 

If you are a foreigner with a business in tourism, you should have cut your losses and ran already.

 

Worse to come too, travelling to these areas will become more dangerous with more scams, gouging, crime rates will rise exponentially against foreigners, envy and jealousy of people with money will kick in and things will get nasty.

 

Those that were prudent and squirreled away money for a rainy day may get through this.

 

Spendthrifts and money-wasters that live hand to mouth are in trouble.

 

Chok dee!

Mr Meeseeks, The situation you describe in Pattaya has been on my mind since the lockdown began. I have been warning my lady who has remained there of rising crime and to be careful. I've been stunned by the civility of thai people queueing for food but the rent has to paid. Where is the support for them. ? Regards.

Newly appointed finance minister can send the bill for damage caused to the commies next door

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Combine this with falling exports and the overvalued Baht and Thailand is really up the creek without a paddle.

They need to let farangs back in with Thai wife's without jumping through hoops and and those with Children ASAP to start the tourist ball rolling again

7 hours ago, rooster59 said:

In a worst-case scenario, the Thai tourism sector is expected to generate revenue of Bt676.7 billion next year due to the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Yuthasak Supasorn said.

They don't know what's happening end of this month let alone next year... complete madness.

  • Popular Post
6 hours ago, ezzra said:

with no mass vaccination in the horizon at least until mid next year, i think those 75% will be more like 95% at best...

Correct and Thailand are reaping what they sow with their draconian visa laws and deliberately forcing foreign investment via expats To zero ... This government have decided that foreign money was under their control .. How stupid was that ... Time to go back to go forward again Thailand or be forced into such a recession that you become 4th world

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all the time you got 2 weeks quarantine and 100,000 usd insurance

not many will come to thailand

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Lets take in to account the fact that there has been no talk what so ever about lifting the ban on tourist or the ban on flights into the country, until there is some such information projecting tourist arrivals is a complete waste

i agree with you sir  moe666

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2 hours ago, blueontour said:

With any luck all the TV whingers will disappear. 

Just curious but who rattled your cage.?

In 13 years this is your 14th post. 

 

I will definitely nominate you for poster of the year. 

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Never believe Statistics! Having worked in Tourism industry for many years,I have never ever come across an ethical and truthful statistic,they are the most manipulative by the ones who want an exposure for marketing appeal!I have followed so many statistical analysis, only to find in the end the sources are full of a maze of algorithms! These days nearly all the institutions have vested financial interest and the ones who have the accurate data wouldn't release it willy nilly.

The figures mentioned in the article couldn't be more hypothetical!..... predictions in evolving circumstances which change every day is misleading information...

.just my opinion!

I am posting something which very few people will see!

 

Thailand is unlikely to reopen its borders to international leisure visitors this year, predicted a deputy governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT),  Chattan Kunjara Na Ayudhya, deputy governor for international marketing at Tourism Authority of Thailand said at last week’s webcast you registered for, hosted by TravelMole, in association with Mekong Tourism Coordinating Office.

Watch recording of webcast at https://youtu.be/CDKftlrthtE, if you missed it: Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, & China (Mekong Region) Recovery Update, 2nd of 2.

The Coronavirus situation and how governments, their communities and the different industry sectors are reacting and planning for recovery differ from region to region, country to country.

Our distinguished panel will be updating us on the whole Mekong region, by travel sector, followed by questions from our audience.

 

Now do the readers here believe anything which is published about figures plummeting??.....????????.

 

3 hours ago, ChakaKhan said:

Can i come back and quarantine on top of that big ocean rock for my 2 weeks?  can fish off it for food

 

Yes, but there is a squatting charge and its triple for foreigners. Extra for the fishing license and sunshade. No pets allowed. A caddy will be assigned.

This is a never ending subject 

We are proberly  be going to see and  different scenarios 

Just now, shackleton said:

This is a never ending subject 

We are proberly  be going to see and  different scenarios 

Computer playing up again 

To finish my sentence 

We are proberly  going to see and read different scenarios most days weeks and months on tourist figures ect 

Nothing will improve until the Foreign  tourists are allowed back in plus quarantine  measures are finished which is months away

Looking at 2021 earliest 

 

 

1 hour ago, xerostar said:

" .. could plummet over 75 per cent"

ALREADY HAS plummeted by 99% would be more accurate !  

Obviously you believe that shouting makes the narrow minded perspective more credible, and I can only assume that you believe domestic tourism to be some sort of myth.

A couple of weeks ago we went to Laem Sing and the hotel we wanted was fully booked, village was as busy as it would normally be at this time of year. On the way home we called into Laem Sadat, quite a hive of activity, no ghost towns around there.

Quite obvious from the article that they are not entirely dependent on foreigners.

 

"If the sector quickly recovers early next year or in the second quarter next year, it will have revenue of Bt1.525 trillion of which Bt977 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. "

 

You really ought to get out from behind that keyboard a bit more.

 

Yuthasak Supasorn must be both a genius and a clairvoyant, amazing!

tourism globally is decimated, so this is not a specific Thai situation.

 

International travel is limited worldwide so naturally people will not go abroad for a holiday but stay in their own country.

International tourism will drop but national tourism from Thais will go up.

 

This might be good for Thailand in the long run, away from tourism dollars and focusing on other industries.

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

No one is going hungry in this village.  They eat things they grow,  harvest or catch everyday, not just in an emergency.   We like watermelon brand rice and there is usually one or 2 x 10kg bags in kitchen.  My B-in-L grows 2 rai of sticky rice for Mar on some of her land...it usually gets shared around.  I have 5 x 50L boxes with farang friendly food.  If things get tough and food stocks are low in the supermarket I think we and others can survive. I would imagine a lot of villages all over Thailand would survive.

Yes. I imagine that this is the case throughout the country, away from the major urban centres. my extended family are even supplying members who live in Bangkok with food. There is some sort of a rota whereby people are taking it in turn to make a run down to Bangkok to supply people from the village living there. A pick up goes down every week or so.

 

What the economic side effects of the Covid fighting policies have done, is to force a very large proportion of the population back to this sort of subsistence agriculture which you describe. As small businesses and enterprises are forced to close, trading is concentrated in the hands of a smaller number of the bigger concerns (and that means families doesn't it). It has set back the economic development by, oh, perhaps thirty years or so, at least a generation, maybe two? The gap between very rich and poor/scraping by has been widened, and what economic and social mobility there was has been destroyed. I don't think that was the initial intention, but it is an (unintended) effect which has been welcomed by those few who benefit I'm sure that they will be deploying their influence to ensure that this situation continues!

 

They will have calculated that they can maintain the profitability of their concerns, even though the amount of disposable income in the community has reduced, by concentrating it on their businesses. Perhaps they are right, but there again have they taken into account the mood of the very large number of dispossessed and unemployed that have been created?

17 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Utterly Pathetic, destroying your total economy for two years, mass unemployment and homelessness for less than a day of road deaths ! World has totally gone completely and nuts

 

It's not the 50-60 deaths Thailand has had.

 

It's the thousands more that would occur along with the collapse of its medical system and all the collateral damage, if they let the virus in and it runs rampant in the country.

 

 

11 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Obviously you believe that shouting makes the narrow minded perspective more credible, and I can only assume that you believe domestic tourism to be some sort of myth.

A couple of weeks ago we went to Laem Sing and the hotel we wanted was fully booked, village was as busy as it would normally be at this time of year. On the way home we called into Laem Sadat, quite a hive of activity, no ghost towns around there.

Quite obvious from the article that they are not entirely dependent on foreigners.

 

"If the sector quickly recovers early next year or in the second quarter next year, it will have revenue of Bt1.525 trillion of which Bt977 billion will be contributed by foreign tourists. "

 

You really ought to get out from behind that keyboard a bit more.

 

haha. good observation. Its only logic. Also Thais cant travel abroad, so instead of a holiday in another country, they will have a holiday in Thailand. 

Anyway, individual people or businesses alike, one always should try to adopt AND STRIVE TO BENEFIT from a changing situation.

The covid crisis brings MASSIVE oportunities for other sectors. 

 

  • Popular Post

A. This is an unprecedented situation. A voluntary and nearly complete economic shutdown has never happened, in recorded history. 

 

B. There is nothing to base any of these Inane and ill informed conclusions on. 

 

C. Nobody knows when a vaccine will be available, and want it's level of efficacy will be. 

 

D. Nobody knows how international tourists will feel about traveling long distances, cooped up on a plane for 12-18 hours at a time. 

 

E. Will anyone even remember Thailand? How will they feel about coming here? 

 

There are far more questions than there are answers. Yet, these nitwits keep trotting out these projections. Based on what? 

 

At the very least they have cleared up one mystery for us. At 3 trillion baht a year, that represents about 20% of the nation's economy. Not 8%. Not 12%.

 

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