Opening up Thailand to tourists a "potential catastrophe", wait six months urges Chula doctor

[Flying Saucage]

2 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

Perhaps its genetic, or a dietary resistance that keeps the Thais fairly immune to Covid effects but the Government possibly knows its asymptomatic rife and if they let in tourists it will destroy them faster than a herd of gazelles. ????

I mentioned it in other posts before already, but will do it here again.

 

Why are the Thai Covid-19 numbers are so small?

 

1. The official numbers are censored (since around end of February) and manipulated, as all official numbers in Thailand. Seriously, who believes any official Thai number???

 

2. There are very few tests done per day, less than in other countries.
 

3. The virus is still in active in the country, similar to the other two virus-free countries which are not in the middle of the pacific ocean, namely Turkmenistan and North Korea (do you trust their numbers?)
 

4. Covid deaths in Thailand are diagnosed as pneumonia, heart attack or whatever, instead of Covid

 

And why have neither the hospitals nor the crematories ever been overwhelmed in Thailand, with no scores of dead people on the road?

 

1. Because despite the official numbers are faked and despite the virus is (very very likely) still in the country, Thailand nevertheless performs very well without any doubt!!!
 

2. Because Thailand performs as well as other good performing countries like Germany or Italy (yes, Italy, today!), with single digit Covid deaths per day now. Neither hospitals nor the crematories are overwhelmed in Europe. There are huge free capacities. Germany's Covid deaths yesterday: 5! Five!!! At a population of 82 million
 

And why did Thailand not experience a similar disaster to other countries like Spain, UK, or Italy (yes, Italy, but in March/April)?

Because of the climate and the social behaviour of the Thais: 

1. Due to the climate in Thailand, whenever there is no AC available, the windows are open. The virus concentration in the air therefore always stays low, the contaminated aerosoles leave the room through the windows 

 

2. Whenever there is an AC, this AC reduces for physical reasons the humidity of the air. The humidity, and hence the contaminated exhaled aerosoles of infected people, condensate in the AC, which reduces the virus concentration in the air

 

3. A strongly reduced virus concentration in the air might lead to less severe and more asymptotic infections. I think we saw this in Thailand.

 

4. Looking to Europe and China in March/April: It was winter time, the windows were closed, AC - if available at all - was switched-off, old and vulnerable people stayed in closed rooms together. A receipe for a disaster. 

 

In the meantime, the doctors and scientists have learned a lot about the virus. They know much better how to treat the infections than before, and they know how the virus is transmitted. The cases will never be as they were in March/April. 

 

Again, look to Italy: 1000 deaths per day in April, around 5 per day now. At a population of 50 million! But these are facts which are not popular in Thailand. Thais need their panic.

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[trainman34014]

8 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

So out of the 500 "infected" , 65 would slip through the net? More than 10%? Are the covid contaminated foreigners particularly slippery? 

No; it's just that the 'Net' has massive holes in it !

[Boomer6969]

8 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Go ahead and post the number of daily deaths while you are at it.  

Deaths are just a few weeks behind infections. By next week there will be over 100 a day. In two weeks the country might be locked down again,

[Miami007]

8 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

this is what happens when borders open to tourists:

 

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

 

Opening borders in France has absolutely nothing to do with new cases. Is there any proof that a tourist infected french citizens?  Or is there community infection in France?

 

Why not the same increase in Italy? 

Where did the infected tourists come from? Other European countries.. which then imposed quarantine on returning citizens who visited France, because they are afraid of the virus being brought back..

Circular logic

 

The virus will be here for many years.  Even with a vaccine. 

You can't close the economy forever

[uncle_tom]

Don't look at the number of cases in France - that just reflects increased testing.

 

Look at the number of deaths - which is virtually zilch..

 

We can't eradicate this bug, but the treatment of the few who get it badly is well worked out now.

 

Thailand needs its tourist cash - it's status as a middle ranking economy absolutely depends on that..

[VBF]

5 hours ago, Paiman said:

Guess his wife did not tuck him in, so he needed public attention again.   Easy said for somebody with a steady income.

 

To be honest, I am getting sick of the scaremongering.  They have to learn to live with it, so many are asymptomatic and the fallout for the healthy people is in my opinion outweighing the virus.

 

Now I most likely get a few unhappy people with the following statement, but if some people die, so be it. 

 

Too many business / governments have their hidden agendas and it works perfectly, to sell it with covid.

You might get some unhappy people, but IMO you're 100% correct!

And what you're saying applies around the world, not just in Thailand!

[tomauasia]

I'm smarter than the Thai Chinese doctor. But regardless old boy. How is the miracle vaccine coming along ????????????. Just another racist Thai happy to destroy lives.

[Miami007]

26 minutes ago, 86Tiger said:

What I believe most of these and the pensioners saying same seem to over look:  if the economies of the world do not get back to normal production and shipping all the money in the world will not help you, there will be nothing to buy.

 

 

Eventually the government will not be able to pay salaries and pensions if there is no open economy. 

If all public servants and retirees would get standard unemployment benefits, how long would a lockdown last?

[Boomer6969]

7 minutes ago, Flying Saucage said:

4. Looking to Europe and China in March/April: It was winter time, the windows were closed, AC if available at all was switched-off, old and vulnerable people stayed in closed rooms together. A receipe for a disaster. 

 

5. Thais have been exposed to dirty Farang sex tourists for over 60 and have therefore built up a strong "herd immunity".

[Jack Cook]

Ha ha in 6 more months there won’t be much left. But the Hi So aren’t really interested either way as they’re fine.

Edited August 28, 2020 by Jack Cook

[Powellie]

My holiday is already booked for November. I want to enjoy myself and stay safe. I can wait another 6 months. On the other hand, there was 23,000 road traffic fatalities last year - Ban cars. There was 464,000 food related incidents - Ban food. 10 related elephant deaths; wait until it reaches 15 and then ban them. Nearly 1000 drug related deaths. . The list goes on

[uncle_tom]

2 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

5. Thais have been exposed to dirty Farang sex tourists for over 60 and have therefore built up a strong "herd immunity".

Most people who have looked in to std transmission in Thailand have concluded that the problem is careless Thai men - not tourists..

[Flying Saucage]

4 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

5. Thais have been exposed to dirty Farang sex tourists for over 60 and have therefore built up a strong "herd immunity".

Might by boomer, might be. But wait......This also means that these dirty farang males were exposted to these sweet Thai females. So what about the Farangs immunity......

 

Okay, I am not immune against this, I must admit.....

[hioctane]

Obviously, this is a doctors point of view. It isn’t their job to take into account the social and economic impacts. If they were in charge, everyone would live in a bubble. The job of the government is to take advise from all parties and manage  risk!

[goatfarmer]

8 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

It need be acknowledged that there is an inevitable lag time for recorded fatalities from an increase in infection rates. No doubt there will those  who will insist that these two graphs "prove" the risk level has been exaggerated  as  opposed to the  reality  only  time  will tell !

With vaccines near  becoming available ( reportedly ! ) the  decision to wait  or open up is not a choice I would  wish on anyone. The  damage done so far could easily be compounded if a significant community infection rate arises for  any reason. Thailand  may be seen as an attractive  destination now because it is  presents low  risk. Tourist arrivals  may be a short lived  boon if that situation changes.

Exactly. The question should be, what is the best long term solution?Unfortunately, no one knows. Any action would be based on a guess, a hope and a prayer.

Edited August 28, 2020 by goatfarmer
Grammar

[RichardColeman]

9 hours ago, steelepulse said:

I went ahead and posted daily deaths for you.

OK, now post the number of people in that graph that did NOT have serious other illnesses. NY said 99.3% of all deaths had other issues - in uk the other day, they posted two deaths - 2 x 85 year olds with health issues - and the whole country is in fear ! Absolutely nuts

[daejung]

9 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

Government reputation on the line ?

That went pear shaped 6 years ago, and has gone steadily downhill !

Prayuth Chan-ocha, mindful that it is his government's reputation that is on the line ?

Must be a joke

I suggest life quarantine for him

[Zikomat]

I wonder why he is talking about 6 months? What will change then? One thing which will definitely change is the economy. It will be in much much worse shape. And there still will be million reasons not to open the borders. 

[321 BOOM]

This guy is a complete nutter. We should aknowledge that every year 9.5 million people on this planet die because of cancer. 

 

The death rate of covid 19 is around 5%, if the assumption based on many studies around the world that there are 4-5 times more cases than reported is correct the death rate is aroun 1%. These are mostly elderly with pre existing conditions.

 

The shutdown of countries because of covid 19 serves mainly 2 purpose.

 

1. Implementation of control and tracking measures which will be tested and many of them are here to stay to surpress personal freedom.

 

2. The erasion of the middle class, family business will be sold or going to bankd as loans can not be repaid. Big Players will move in and pick the cherries from the cake. The rest will go into liquidation.

 

Do I personally care ? No. I dont wear a mask, not 1 second. I have sufficient funds...no problem. 

 

Its only anoying to see how easy governments can brainwash people.

 

Waiting for a flight out of LOS which I change for me from Land of Scam to Land of Stupidity.

 

 

[jerolamo]

Is this kind of disaster will be so big than road accident death this year ?

doctor should look at the facts now...

[Sean60]

The government has had 6 months to buildup its capacity for treating Covid 19 patients. Imagine if we do not get a vaccine. Are you going to keep the country closed? 

Sweden and Germany and many other countries have open borders and things are normal. Covid-19 is rated as yet another flue.

Thailand can ask tourists for insurance and perhaps even one or two days quarantine. You can ask for the certificate of health which was done 72 hours before the flight.

You will not have a very large number of tourists, but the tourism industry can get back on its feet some what. However I am just a dirty, not showering farang after all. You are the smart ones.

[teacherclaire]

1 hour ago, Madeline Thompson said:

Thai authorities are the junta, it is not a democratic government, the people have no say.  One doctor says - DISASTER if Thai opens up to tourists, wait 6 months. One doctor. Disaster to whom?  To the Thai people??? The authorities never consider this.   I cannot repeat this again, the necessity of opening up tourism, wisely but with purpose, is very important, otherwise the whole infrastructure of tourism decays.  No one, no tourist, wants to come to a decaying country.

And to be fair to the youth of this country, no foreigners should bring money to a government that wasn't legally elected.

 

   

[thairookie]

If only they had exercised the same level of caution in the 1st week of February 2020 and banned all Chinese flights into Thailand.

[Mark Nothing]

5 hours ago, Mises said:

I am from the UK.

Does anyone anywhere know anyone who actually died of COVID? Of not with.  One guy at my work knows someone that died but they were at death’s door anyway and that is the total extent of my experience.  My daughter was working as flight crew abroad but gave up and returned to Thailand, she has 3 more days of quarantine in a hotel, she is not allowed out of the room at all and all food is delivered to outside the door.  14 days of that would send anyone crazy even without their carreer being destroyed.  Yesterday a man doing the same in her hotel threw himself off the balcony.  So I now know of more suicides than COVID caused deaths.  I suspect I am not alone.  And that is before all the extra cancer and heart disease deaths that are now a certainty in the UK

I am from the Usa.  I have been asking everyone I know for months now if they or anybody they know has had covid or died, and the answer is alway No.  Nobody knows anybody.

 

One man is from new york city with 40 facebook friends and family and they don't know anybody either who has been infected or died.

[CANSIAM]

Is the leading Doctor concerned about the appalling  24 deaths per day rate this year on his countries roads ? 

[sammieuk1]

What's the minister for flip flops have to say tomorrow had enough of open/shut for one day ????

[Cali farong]

Whichever countries open for tourist will reap the benefits as people will find countries much more welcoming than Thailand.  They will go there on yearly holiday and forget Thailand.  

[GAZZPA]

11 hours ago, ezzra said:

It Seems that the threat of economy meltdown and losses of trillions of baht in tourists revenues trump the risk of a reoccuring of the covid 19, the premise is the thailand has come to the conclusion that it can afford itself to sacrifice a bunch of sic and fatality in an efforts to save the economy... 

Seems the entire world is coming to terms with moving economies and living with the virus. Hopefully a vaccine will be available next year, between now and then we all have to realise that the world has to keep turing or the global economic catastrophe will be far worse. 

[GAZZPA]

27 minutes ago, Cali farong said:

Whichever countries open for tourist will reap the benefits as people will find countries much more welcoming than Thailand.  They will go there on yearly holiday and forget Thailand.  

agree 100%, tourism was already on the slide in Thailand. Now Europeans will stay in Europe and even for the few who will travel long haul there are better options in SE Asia.

 

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

OK, now post the number of people in that graph that did NOT have serious other illnesses. NY said 99.3% of all deaths had other issues - in uk the other day, they posted two deaths - 2 x 85 year olds with health issues - and the whole country is in fear ! Absolutely nuts

True stats, however don't forget the population of the world is ageing, many are living with conditions taking regular medication due to the developments in science. So the impact of older people getting sick would still be catastrophic. The only solution is protect the vulnerable and allow everyone else to get back to work..