Korean Found with COVID after Returning from Bangkok

[mommysboy]

8 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

True if numbers were really high. But not if they are humming along at a low level as is quite possible.

 

A number of factors here help to reduce the extent and speed  of virus spread: culture that does nor shake hands or engage in much PDA; tendency to socialize out of doors; religion that doesn't tend to much in the way of crowded indoor gatherings (unlike Islam,  Judaism and Christianity;  mosques, churches and synagogues  have been implicated in many outbreaks in other countries);  except for Bangkok, relatively low population density. Add to that continued mask wearing at least in indoor public venues and continued ban on many of the things likely to be superspreader events (e.g. sports matches with live spectators) and the result is that infected persons, especially asymptomatic ones, may not infect many others,  thus allowing overall numbers of infected to stay pretty well below the radar.

 

If I were the authorities I would be a bit concerned about indoor bars and clubs reopening and also keep an eye on the BTS and buses in Bangkok as these seem the greatest vulnerabilities.

 

Well, yes, asymptomatic does outnumber symptomatic infection quite considerably, nevertheless you would expect to see at least some obvious cases; I mean more than one or two in a 100 days.  And quite honestly, it's a bit far fetched to think one asymptomatic carrier, passes it on to another who remains asymptomatic, and so on.  truly asymptomatic carriers are people who are likely to not be infectious.  They would only likely become infectious just before developing symptoms, and thus would come to light much more frequently.

 

 

[Kinnock]

13 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

As far as I’m aware this article has mixed information which is highly surprising given the source. 

 

The ‘cornerstone’ of the UK’s response is not antibody testing, it is Covid-19 RT-PCR testing - I’ve no idea how the Lancet could get this so wrong. 

 

Antibody testing is commercially available (the two types discussed in the Article: Abbot / Roche Elecsys), but these are only available (or were 6 weeks ago) at private hospitals and clinics - these tests are known to have inconsistent results and are thus not considered reliable - Added to which, they do not identify Covid-19 in a patient, but that a patient may have had Covid-19 at some point in the past.

 

The NHS which has set up national testing and ‘drive through centers’ relies solely on RT-PCR Tests to test for who ‘currently’ has Covid-19.

 

 

 

The article does validate why mass Antibody testing has not been released (because of inaccuracies). Had there been an accurate antibody test, I would like to see mass testing which could identify what proportion of the population has had Covid-19. Unfortunately thats not accurately possible at the moment. 

 

 

Thank you - that explains why I was a bit unsure what the article was trying to say.   But it wasn't one of the full peer reviewed studies, so it could easily have a few issues.

[tlandtday]

On 9/9/2020 at 7:18 PM, ThreeEyedRaven said:

A person of reasonable intelligence, could be forgiven for assuming that he obviously had the virus here. This clearly though ruins the perfect lie that Thailand is clean, safe and virus free, for those desperate to come here on holiday. Anyone realistically expecting face losing admission from the Thais that they have been less than honest though? Or expect that they will find anyone else here he associated with, who has it too?

As I have said all along "no testing equals no covid".  Random testing would produce a hell of a lot of cases out there.

[tlandtday]

11 hours ago, DavisH said:

There is a lot of testing going on here - just not random mass testing of the population - prisoners and those admitted for surgery are two examples, and those suspected of having covid, are tested. If noone is presenting to hospital with symptoms - and any that are infected but are asymptomatic anyway, who cares? I don't buy the story of high numbers of asymptomatic carriers present in Thailand - they would spread the virus and infect others causing symptoms. Many would end up at hospital. 

And what is the advantage for a Thai to voluntarily admit themselves for testing?  Los of job, quarantine, expense, family and friends quarantined all while risking further infections in what are possibly unsanitary hospitals... this is why you don't have any sick going to hospitals... they are out there.

[Marco100]

5 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

As I have said all along "no testing equals no covid".  Random testing would produce a hell of a lot of cases out there.

Well there is the PUI ( Patient under Investigation ) wich grows every day .

Todays number 429.000 with 1072 new PUI . Was reading some where that all people who has fever over 37.3 becomes PUI's .

Web Source : ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneoumonia

Assume in it there is all , including seasonal flue et et 

[Suua]

19 hours ago, DavisH said:

There is a lot of testing going on here - just not random mass testing of the population - prisoners and those admitted for surgery are two examples, and those suspected of having covid, are tested. If noone is presenting to hospital with symptoms - and any that are infected but are asymptomatic anyway, who cares? I don't buy the story of high numbers of asymptomatic carriers present in Thailand - they would spread the virus and infect others causing symptoms. Many would end up at hospital. 

Incorrect.....see graph for the amount of testing going on here.

 

[Sheryl]

11 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

Well, yes, asymptomatic does outnumber symptomatic infection quite considerably, nevertheless you would expect to see at least some obvious cases; I mean more than one or two in a 100 days.  And quite honestly, it's a bit far fetched to think one asymptomatic carrier, passes it on to another who remains asymptomatic, and so on.  truly asymptomatic carriers are people who are likely to not be infectious.  They would only likely become infectious just before developing symptoms, and thus would come to light much more frequently.

 

 

It has been  established that asymoptomatic people can infect others. They are not non-infectious. If they were the pandemic would nto spread anywhere near as well as it has.

 

The experience in multiple countries has been that outbreaks become evident only once the numbers of cases are in the 5 digits -- especially if spread is mainly among the non-elderly.

 

Symnptomatic cases do not always seek medical attention. And not all who seek it get correctly diagnosed.

 

What becomes really obvious is when there start to be really severe cases showing up at hospitals. Those are just a small percentage of all symptomatic cases which in turn are just a percentage of total infections.

 

 

[Kinnock]

Ironically, the very low case numbers being reported in Thailand has added to the economic pain for all the people working in tourism, travel and leisure industries.

 

If Thailand had similar levels of reported cases to the home countries of the tourists, then travel would be simpler.  I think there's a tough balancing act between trying to control risks from COVID and trying to reduce the issues created by the loss of livelihoods.