What China’s struggles with a Thai railway say about the Belt and Road

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, khunjeff said:

This is a completely separate system from the current rail network, and will have no effect on the existing narrow gauge tracks - just as the elevated, standard gauge Airport Rail Link had no effect.

So a super high speed bullet monorail system, gotcha.

[JerseytoBKK]

24 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

Considering it is elevated I would love to know how you think that is going to happen. 

You've never seen pictures of bridges that were washed away? Bad rains can bring down half a mountain side. Elevated highways get washed away regularly.

 

[DLock]

1 hour ago, soi3eddie said:

Agreed but the Thais can still have the Chinese if they play clever. Let the Chinese invest heavily into currently proposed new lines from Laos to Bangkok but then find a "ransom strip" somewhere in the south that cannot be used or upgraded by the Chinese unless on Thailand's terms. Think of a number! Connecting to Singapore would not be possible unless agreed on Thai terms so all the earlier investment by Chinese likely wasted.

 

You've clearly never done business with Chinese.

 

They are 10 steps ahead of you...

[car720]

Mark my words.  A few short weeks after they put the train through Laos it will become another province of China.

[Susco]

45 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:

12 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

 

I agree that it will be very exciting for Thai people. There will be many betting pools set up to predict which province and how many times the tracks will get washed out every year. 

Considering it is elevated I would love to know how you think that is going to happen. 

Considering it is not elevated over the entire length, I would love to know how you think this can't happen.

[thenewgoo]

16 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

17 hours ago, nzrick said:

It was Sri Lanka

Greece too. The moral...don't overextend yourself. 

Maldives too! https://www.ft.com/content/c8da1c8a-2a19-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8

another link:

https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/just-how-much-does-the-maldives-owe-china/

Edited October 14, 2020 by thenewgoo

[Rancid]

17 hours ago, dddave said:

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that recently lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

Didn't I read that Laos just lost its entire electricity grid due to not repaying the loan and it is now owned by China. Mind you the Chinese are just doing what the IMF and World Bank have been doing for decades.

 

Those with money seem to delight in relieving the poor of what little they have, greed is insatiable. Lots of blogs claim the BRI is about bringing trade to the world, seems to me more likely to help China move product out, while raw materials come in cheap as payment for "loans".

[fantom]

15 hours ago, greeneking said:

I would genuinely like to know what benefits you see. Many flights of 5000 baht or less and a flight time of 110 minutes are on offer already.

I would enjoy the journey, but after the fun trip my next trips for business or holidays would be by air. Transporting goods does not need to be done by high speed trains. Many Chinese tourists have very short holidays and want to be somewhere in the quickest way i.e. fly.

I agree, this project is a solution desperately looking for a problem.

[Proboscis]

18 hours ago, dddave said:

One interesting aspect to this article is that "The South China Morning Post" is now owned by Jack Ma/AliBaba Group and in turn, is overseen by "Xinhua", the official Chinese news agency.

 

One must read between the lines.

 

BTW, in case people are unaware: KHAO SOD NEWS, including the KHAO SOD ENGLISH EDITION is now also controlled by Xinhua.

That kind of control by sinister forces is not unknown in Western countries too. The UK has gone BREXIT largely because of the influence of Murdoch owned media. And guess who owns Fox News and affiliates in the USA that played a big role in putting Trump in power - yes, it is Murdoch.

 

So, nothing new here!

[Scott Tracy]

16 hours ago, greeneking said:

Many Chinese tourists have very short holidays and want to be somewhere in the quickest way i.e. fly.

Flying is not always the quickest way to travel. Taking into account the travel to and from airport, check-in, security, taxiing, etc.

 

For a 45 minute flight time from LHR to CDG, it used to take around 3 hours from arrival at LHR to get my bags at CDG. Security was the bane of everyone's life. Especially those who had not flown before, or those who had forgotten the rules or didn't know them.

[Grumpy John]

Only gullible fools think there is some good for them in the Belt and road.  It's all about China getting goods out and raw material in.  And their military out if needed.  I think too many brown envelopes have blinkered the view of reality of many of those in power. 

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Leverage, is that why China has been taking over patrolling the seas so they can see what they want to take away so that there is no leverage except there own.  In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.  How much money is Thailand to make from this new infrastructure, and what will be the benefit of having a bullet train here.  I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not.  Chaos at it's finest.

In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line ?????????????????????????

The Hi speed rail will not transport freight, IMO, and the current rail will continue to serve those that can't afford the cost of Hi speed rail, or does anyone think it will have a third class with wooden seats and standing passengers?

 

There is, IMO no need for a Hi speed rail option in Thailand. Double tracking and better rolling stock that can go faster on the same gauge is all that is necessary, IMO.

The only viable Hi speed rail in LOS IMO would be between U Tapao and Don Muang with stops at Pattaya, Swampy and somewhere in Bkk.

 

Far as I can see, this train is designed to move large numbers of Chinese to/ from Thailand, Malaya and Singapore, so they should be paying for it.

 

I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not. 

Hi speed rail is normally elevated for that reason. Perhaps LOS is different?

 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, Susco said:

Considering it is not elevated over the entire length, I would love to know how you think this can't happen.

Big electrified fences with razor wire topping?

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Big electrified fences with razor wire topping?

So electrified fences prevent washing out of tracks cause by flooding?

 

NEXT

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post has been removed.

[Burma Bill]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

to meet a 2021 deadline to open a link to China’s vast rail network.

For reference:-

Kunming to Vientiane will probably be operational in 2021 but southwards over the Mekong to Nong Khai and Korat never in 2021, same for Bangkok to Korat:-

[dddave]

3 hours ago, Rancid said:

Mind you the Chinese are just doing what the IMF and World Bank have been doing for decades.

Fair point.

[Selatan]

China has some leverage over Thailand as well - it can forget about Thailand if Thailand continues to dilly-dally and concentrate on a HSR project with Myanmar instead. But luckily for Thailand, Myanmar probably has become irreversibly stupid after decades of suffering in poverty. They worry over a "debt trap" instead of worrying over their own "poverty trap". At least fellow dirt-poor Laos has realised that they have nothing to lose by linking up with the strongest economy in the world. I wouldn't be surprised that by 2022, Laos may have more Chinese tourists than Thailand.

[Redline]

20 hours ago, dddave said:

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that recently lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

Sri Lanka

[Lacessit]

21 hours ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

I don't know how they do it, but Thais seem to be very adept at coming out on top. They were never colonized, and the Japanese basically left them alone when they were brutalizing quite a few other Asian nations.

[Selatan]

21 hours ago, dddave said:

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that recently lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

The Sri Lanka port story was untrue.

 

The Hambantota Port Deal: Myths and Realities

 

Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence

Sri Lanka's foreign loans were mostly from Western sources. China's portion was only around 6%.

[vagaboberalis]

21 hours ago, dddave said:

I'm not exactly sure of this but didn't Malaysia or was it Sri Lanka that recently lost control of a major port to settle a past due debt to China?

Hambantota

[Selatan]

21 hours ago, toast1 said:

The Thai people will pay heavily for this foolishness.

It is easy to get into debt with the promise of shinny new trains, but when the bill needs paying, those who borrowed will be long gone.

No good can come of this.

Eventually, the debt will not be paid and a port or other asset will be handed over, its happened 100 times.

 

The Isan region definitely needs better transportation infrastructure, and this project can attract more tourists and investments into the region. I can see why some people hope that the Isan people continue to live in poverty - more supply of prostitutes to Bangkok and Pattaya?

[josephbloggs]

21 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.  How much money is Thailand to make from this new infrastructure, and what will be the benefit of having a bullet train here.  I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not.  Chaos at it's finest.

Wow, so you get 18 likes by making up stuff out of thin air - says a lot about the attitude on this forum.  Make up stuff to criticise Thailand, likes come pouring in from similarly like-minded miseries.

Please explain why they have to rip up all the narrow gauge track for this?  Where on earth did you get that from?  And stated as absolute fact, no "probably" or "they might" in there!

The existing tracks remain, this has nothing to do with them.

 

[josephbloggs]

14 minutes ago, Selatan said:

The Sri Lanka port story was untrue.

 

The Hambantota Port Deal: Myths and Realities

 

Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence

Sri Lanka's foreign loans were mostly from Western sources. China's portion was only around 6%.

Finally a sensible post.

Also didn't Thailand reject China's loan terms?

[josephbloggs]

4 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

You've never seen pictures of bridges that were washed away? Bad rains can bring down half a mountain side. Elevated highways get washed away regularly.

 

Oh yeah, right, so they shouldn't build this in case the water makes it fall over just like happens regularly to elevated highways etc.  I think they've rebuilt the Don Muang tollway three times because it kept falling over, the BTS has fallen over at least twice - that big rain last week took out most of the Silom line but luckily they rebuilt it quickly.

The ARL has been rebuilt several times too.  

You're right, cancel the project!!

[josephbloggs]

4 hours ago, Susco said:

Considering it is not elevated over the entire length, I would love to know how you think this can't happen.

Generally if not elevated they are built on raised embankments.

[Selatan]

Just now, josephbloggs said:

Finally a sensible post.

Also didn't Thailand reject China's loan terms?

We have to wait and see what the agreement would look like.

Financing issues were partly the cause of the delays. Thailand wanted to finance the whole project on its own because of "debt trap" fears but probably didn't have the money. Thailand also wanted to get involved a lot in the construction but didn't have the expertise and the productivity level.

[vagaboberalis]

The little used port of Hambantota at night. Used now mostly for naval ships. High security all around. 

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

In order to build this railway they will have to remove all of this countries narrow gauge line and that will then deal a heavy blow to the SRT and others that have modified there equipment to traverse the lines here.  How much money is Thailand to make from this new infrastructure, and what will be the benefit of having a bullet train here.  I can see the bullet train taking out many people crossing where they should not.  Chaos at it's finest.

Why make these distorted posts, what plans have you seen showing the high speed track at ground level?. What do you think the pillars are for? There are no crossings on the bullet train tracks.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Khon_Kaen_-_high_speed_rail_link_under_construction_16_May_2017.jpg