Finance minister puts baht’s rise down to currency speculation

[allanos]

The US Dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the world, which gives some idea of its importance.  Some refer to it as the "mighty dollar". Consequently, its rise or fall inversely affects other currencies traded against it. All currencies are traded in pairs.

 

The Dollar Index, i.e. the USD measured against a basket of other currencies, has weakened by around 10% or so in the recent past. THB has risen on the back of this, together with any positive factors present in the Thai economy.

 

Trillions of dollars' worth of currency are traded around the world, each day! Although phrases like currency speculation,  or manipulation, roll off the tongue quite readily, in practice, it is nigh impossible to achieve; a few billion dollars don't make as much as a blip on an exchange rate given the vast volumes which are traded.

 

If the Thai authorities want to weaken the Baht, good luck to them. They will be flying in the face of further domestic stimulus measures in the United States, which, whether under Trump or Biden, are waiting in the wings. A minimum of $2.2 tn is earmarked for the next stimulus package, which will bring further inflation in its wake and weaken the dollar even more.

[Baerboxer]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Is it speculation or manipulation.  He needs to be sure before he makes any moves that might be seen as harming the Amart.

 

Manipulation - such as what? This old chestnut of farangs upset because their own currency is massively weaker than it was. Get used to it. 

 

Any country attempting to manipulate their currency gets picked up quickly.

 

This is about the professional forex traders, investors and fund managers assessing the future prosperity of Thailand and other Asian countries to be better than the in terminal decline West. The mighty USD ain't so mighty anymore, the GBP a lot less valued after Brexit and the Euro not seen much better. 

 

The ThB is pegged to the weak and seemingly on a downward trend USD.

 

Your conspiracy theories are about as water tight as the average cullander! 

[connda]

Soros giveth; Soros taketh away.

[Baerboxer]

25 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

meaning "I can not depreciate the baht or I will lose my job and might get killed by the Hi So"

how can he stimulate people's spending if people have no money to spend....

 

Rubbish.

 

Go on then, tells us all how you believe he, or any finance minister could depreciate their country's currency?

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Agreed.  And for a dose of reality—USD (and all trade-connected western currencies) have tanked in last two weeks.  Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan has risen by an equal but opposite amount.  And for some perspective, consider that the Vietnam Dong has remained constant vs the USD.  Vietnam has a history of standing up to China—Thailand does not.

So who do you think is manipulating currencies?

No-one.

[kevin612]

The Thai currency is very strong despite the pandemic and lack of tourists. Well, I thought Thailand’s having a financial crisis. No, it is not true.

[ThailandRyan]

56 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Manipulation - such as what? This old chestnut of farangs upset because their own currency is massively weaker than it was. Get used to it. 

 

Any country attempting to manipulate their currency gets picked up quickly.

 

This is about the professional forex traders, investors and fund managers assessing the future prosperity of Thailand and other Asian countries to be better than the in terminal decline West. The mighty USD ain't so mighty anymore, the GBP a lot less valued after Brexit and the Euro not seen much better. 

 

The ThB is pegged to the weak and seemingly on a downward trend USD.

 

Your conspiracy theories are about as water tight as the average cullander! 

Where was there anything in my post where I said it was a conspiracy theory, again you like to twist words like a few others do to suit your agenda.  My quote was " Is it speculation or manipulation.  He needs to be sure before he makes any moves that might be seen as harming the Amart". 

 

So please explain again where I alluded to a conspiracy theory in my post.

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

Edited November 17, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[PGSan]

1 hour ago, Flying Saucage said:

This quite interesting article

Thank you, M. F Suacage, for posting this link.  

 

I am not sure about any ‘insights’ but the numbers and graphs are good, much more informative and accurate than anything from the pages of TV Inc.

[Elkski]

I just know in April  2016 I exchanged  at 35.6 and now its 30.2.  That's  a big difference in lifestyle if a person retired  in Thailand.  

[steevjee]

4 hours ago, SuperTed said:

That is certainly one part of it. But how do gold speculation in BKK and massive influx of RMB and USD from China impact that analysis? In five years of asking, I have yet to find anyone - government and top economists included - who can offer a clear explanation of the movements of the THB. As mysterious as a Thai woman's heart.

Answer is a 5 letter word, starts with C ends with a

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Elkski said:

I just know in April  2016 I exchanged  at 35.6 and now its 30.2.  That's  a big difference in lifestyle if a person retired  in Thailand.  

16,200 baht less now then when you transferred 3k USD versus back then.  It makes a difference for those who live close to the belt and every satang counts.  Looking at it for a year that would be a net loss of 194,400 Baht and then do not forget prices have increased over that time as well.

[steevjee]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

No-one.

Why you rooking at me 

[GeilGeilertzen]

6 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

Sweet Jesus, and this guy is in a position of authority ? What a meaningless comment.

The Baht has strengthened consistently against USD for 6 months, this on the back of one of the worst performing stock markets in Asia, which is still 15% down on pre-COVID valuation. (1,350 vs 1,600)

I know, as I am feeling the pain with my LTF & RMF investments !

You don’t understand it? 
One of the key factors in financial markets and also in the housing market worldwide is that the investors or the population  in these markets believes in these markets.  

Demand and supply  isn’t enough to make something grow well alone.  Neither is currency or politics.  

So that’s the reason alone behind the statement. 

[PETERTHEEATER]

8 hours ago, crazykopite said:

More BS 

BS? Baht Speculation. Thanks, I thought it stood for something else. ????

[peter48]

As the Baht rises against the sick Brexit pound, the Dollars ( Aus/US etc) & the Euro expect less farang tourists  and investment into Thailand. There are other SE Asia countries offering attractive tourist rates. 

[CapeTown]

It could be the much greater interest on the part of serious investors in having a fully diversified portfolio. Given the shocks and volatility and uncertainty going ahead.

[Chongalulu]

6 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

Yes, at the margins it is caused by net inflows into the Thai bond market from traders at foreign banks who are expecting returns from a small currency appreciation in THB vs USD as well as the yield pick up. We all knew that but what had caused the traders to expect this currency appreciation? 
 

He is content to give clownish answers to ignorant Thai journalists who scribble it all down and print it verbatim without understanding it. It is clear he would be ripped apart by a room full of foreign financial experts.

Your 2nd paragraph is particularly salient,but I think the answer to your question is the news of the vaccine heralds a potential recovery of the tourist industry and the foreign currency inflows that accompanies that

[ourmanflint]

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Manipulation - such as what? This old chestnut of farangs upset because their own currency is massively weaker than it was. Get used to it. 

 

Any country attempting to manipulate their currency gets picked up quickly.

 

This is about the professional forex traders, investors and fund managers assessing the future prosperity of Thailand and other Asian countries to be better than the in terminal decline West. The mighty USD ain't so mighty anymore, the GBP a lot less valued after Brexit and the Euro not seen much better. 

 

The ThB is pegged to the weak and seemingly on a downward trend USD.

 

Your conspiracy theories are about as water tight as the average cullander! 

If the current economic performance of a country is not relevant to the price of it's currency, can you explain these mysterious factors forex traders are using to assess Thailands future prosperity?

[Chiang Mai Bill]

7 hours ago, realfunster said:

 

Sweet Jesus, and this guy is in a position of authority ? What a meaningless comment.

The Baht has strengthened consistently against USD for 6 months, this on the back of one of the worst performing stock markets in Asia, which is still 15% down on pre-COVID valuation. (1,350 vs 1,600)

I know, as I am feeling the pain with my LTF & RMF investments !

And also a Government whose officials make wild, contradictory, inane comments on a regular basis!  

 

NESDC's announcement that it expects the economy to grow by between 3.5 and 4.5% next year, driven by rising domestic demands, recovery of the world economy, trade, government spending and economic stimulus -- and public investment rising by 18.5% in the second quarter certainly wouldn't attract my big money -- if I had any!  The World Economy 'may' take a little longer than 2021 to recover due to unemployment and massive government debts that have to be repaid!  And I am sceptical that the mass of the Thai public will have much disposable income to spend next year!

[TERMINATOR3AB]

The  rise in the Baht  is Capital  flow yes...  from China  

China  want that  Baht high in Value  

Chine  will one  day own all of Thailand  ..that  seems to  be their aim 

Chialand  (Or at least a Provence of China controlled  by China...If it is not that already??)

Good Luck Thailand 

[Migrosmarket]

This is THE place for investment advice.....

[choff56]

10 hours ago, madmen said:

I'm on an extended stay in Oz and have baht coming in from a Bangkok rental.... Keep going up baby! 

Your going to need it when you have to put 3 million baht in a Thai bank just to see your rental in person.

[Banana7]

BOT controls capital flows in and out of Thailand. There are lots of restrictions on outflow of THB from Thailand. All BOT has to do remove the restrictions and the baht will lose value against USD and other major currencies.

 

Also exports exceed imports, without tourist spending in Thailand. Until imports are greater than exports, THB will continue strengthen against most major currencies. This is called a current account balance.

[Banana7]

14 hours ago, miamiman123 said:

Impossible with Thailand household debt at 85% of GDP, and add in all those 8 month old repossessed “Fortuners” and other nice cars, sitting there at the Siam Auto Auction, that are now selling at 65% of their original 1.3 million baht?

And then Biden’s position on Thailand? It’s gonna be close to Trumps position. 
Those dollars flowing into Thailand is not USA speculation but rather the good Chinese that this government has catered to.

oh well, just leave those “tools” in your toolbox, and continue to buy buy IF you have the money! 

 

I've been following the auto auctions like Apple at https://www.appleauction.co.th/Home

Also been tracking vehicles for 4 months on www.one2car.com, www.taladrod.com/w40/home/  and www.motors.co.th/en

I'm not finding much of a discount if any. Which website are you finding these 65% discounts on new 2020/2019 fortuners?

[EricTh]

10 hours ago, kevin612 said:

The Thai currency is very strong despite the pandemic and lack of tourists. Well, I thought Thailand’s having a financial crisis. No, it is not true.

The economics textbooks that we have been reading during our university days are grossly wrong. Those are only theories that is true only in a perfect world.

 

In reality,  fund managers who can move huge funds affect the currency rate more than the current financial situation.

 

If we follow those textbooks, then the baht would have plummeted but it didn't.

 

- Instability in government caused by protests.

- economy is poor

- thousands/millions are jobless

- exports have gone down because other economies are also having problems. Thai baht getting stronger doesn't help either.

 

Edited November 17, 2020 by EricTh

[mikebell]

21 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith

Is this the 2nd choice one?

[ThailandRyan]

And another Minister in another OP put his view out there that:  Supant believes the most appropriate value for the baht should be Bt32 to the dollar.

 

So lets see, speculation is rife because BOT is not doing anything to stop it, and therefore those with the money are making more in the longterm while the people pay more for products and have less money themselves.  No wonder there is the outrage against this group in givernment.

Edited November 18, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Truth Will Set You Free]

They are still building and selling high rise condos. Nobody buying!
Who is will to give up there life saving when the currency below the dollar? 

 

The country is still facing no jobs for millions but at the same time, I don’t see any food lines.  ????????????

 

Something missed here.....

[AmySeeker]

If anyone doesn't think there is some form on maipulation going on - be it deliberate currency manipulation, or artifically high investment from China then you are nuts. 

 

Thailand is suffering a downturn in the economy, it's main financial opus TOURISM is dead for now, and at least the next 6 months, political protests. YET THE BAHT RISES. 

 

Give me a break. I've said it so many times, what we are seeing in Thailand is China taking over. 

[ThailandRyan]

44 minutes ago, Truth Will Set You Free said:

They are still building and selling high rise condos. Nobody buying!
Who is will to give up there life saving when the currency below the dollar? 

 

The country is still facing no jobs for millions but at the same time, I don’t see any food lines.  ????????????

 

Something missed here.....

Ghost building like they did in China to create a false economy and keep people working  Unfortunately it is not the Thai's that are truly working but the slew of foreign workers, who are repatriating most of their money back to their home countries.