Emissions hit new record, put world on track for 3C warming -UN

[snoop1130]

Emissions hit new record, put world on track for 3C warming -UN

By Nina Chestney

 

FILE PHOTO: Meltwater from the Laohugou No. 12 glacier, flows though the Qilian mountains, Subei Mongol Autonomous County in Gansu province, China, September 27, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Greenhouse gas emissions reached a new high last year, putting the world on track for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius, a U.N. report showed on Wednesday.

 

The report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) - the latest to suggest the world is hurtling toward extreme climate change - follows a year of sobering weather extremes, including rapid ice loss in the Arctic as well as record heat waves and wildfires in Siberia and the U.S. West.

 

On Monday, researchers at Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service said last month was the hottest-ever November on record.

"The year 2020 is on course to be one of the warmest on record, while wildfires, storms and droughts continue to wreak havoc," said Inger Andersen, UNEP's Executive Director.

 

The annual "emissions gap" report measures the gap between anticipated emissions and those consistent with limiting the global temperature rise this century as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

 

Under the global climate pact, nations have committed to a long-term goal of limiting the average temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5C.

 

Emissions have, however, grown by an average 1.4 percent per year since 2010, with a steeper increase of 2.6 percent last year due, partly due to a large increase in forest fires.

 

Total 2019 emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) hit a new record of 59.1 gigatonnes.

 

This year, there has been a temporary emissions dip as economies slowed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

 

The resulting drop in travel, industrial activity and electricity generation are likely to work out at a 7% reduction in emissions, the report said. That translates to only a 0.01C reduction in global warming by 2050.

 

Green investment under government stimulus packages to pull economies out of the pandemic-induced slump could cut up to 25% off emissions predicted in 2030.

 

Such packages could put emissions in 2030 at 44 GtCO2e - within the range that gives a 66% chance of holding temperature rises to below 2C, but still insufficient to achieve the 1.5C goal.

 

The United Nations and Britain are holding an online event on Saturday to mark the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and governments are under pressure to come forward with tougher climate targets before the end of the year.

 

A growing number of countries have committed to net zero emissions by mid-century but these need to be translated into strong near-term policies and action, the UNEP report said.

 

"The levels of ambition in the Paris Agreement still must be roughly tripled for the 2C pathway and increased at least fivefold for the 1.5C pathway," it added.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-12-09

 

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[placeholder]

Among some, there's this simpleminded belief that population growth is what is mainly driving environmental disaster and anthropogenic climate change. But in fact...

The world’s rich need to cut their carbon footprint by a factor of 30 to slow climate change, U.N. warns

"The world’s wealthy will need to reduce their carbon footprints by a factor of 30 to help put the planet on a path to curb the ever-worsening impacts of climate change, according to new findings published Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program.

Currently, the emissions attributable to the richest 1 percent of the global population account for more than double those of the poorest 50 percent. Shifting that balance, researchers found, will require swift and substantial lifestyle changes, including decreases in air travel, a rapid embrace of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and better public planning to encourage walking, bicycle riding and public transit."

The world’s rich need to cut their carbon footprint by a factor of 30 to slow climate change, U.N. warns - The Washington Post

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Greenhouse gas emissions reached a new high last year, putting the world on track for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius

What a load of b*****ks

[placeholder]

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

What a load of b*****ks

Thank you for your well reasoned and discourse on the validity of the data. I had my doubt before but comments like yours have convinced me of the errors in my thinking. Bravo and well done!

[NorthernRyland]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

What a load of b*****ks

 

First in the 70s it was global cooling - new ice age imminent. Then it was global warming and sea levels rising. After that "climate change" and now last time I checked it's "global weirding" and extreme weather patterns. 

 

Is it possible that maybe they've got something wrong and maybe we should stop listening to these people until something concrete materializes? I've lost track of how many times melting ice  was going to put costal cities under water but I don't even know of a single island that's gone under in the 30 years since I've been hearing about it.

[baansgr]

The environment is cyclical....Mother Nature taking its course.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

First in the 70s it was global cooling - new ice age imminent. Then it was global warming and sea levels rising. After that "climate change" and now last time I checked it's "global weirding" and extreme weather patterns. 

 

Is it possible that maybe they've got something wrong and maybe we should stop listening to these people until something concrete materializes? I've lost track of how many times melting ice  was going to put costal cities under water but I don't even know of a single island that's gone under in the 30 years since I've been hearing about it.

It was never even close to being a scientific consensus that there was global cooling. And it still is global warming and sea level rising. Climate change is just a more encompassing term. And extreme weather patterns have always been part of the predictions. It's just that they're happening now on a significant basis. And I don't know how many times I've heard the nonsense that predictions said that cities would already be under water. But low lying cities like Miami are already being flooded regularly in lower areas with seawater.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

First in the 70s it was global cooling - new ice age imminent. Then it was global warming and sea levels rising. After that "climate change" and now last time I checked it's "global weirding" and extreme weather patterns. 

 

Is it possible that maybe they've got something wrong and maybe we should stop listening to these people until something concrete materializes? I've lost track of how many times melting ice  was going to put costal cities under water but I don't even know of a single island that's gone under in the 30 years since I've been hearing about it.

Sea level rise is so unremarkable on the east coast of NZ that it seems to be the same level now as it was in the 1960s.

Of course, sea level rise may be higher in areas where people believe in it. 555555555555555

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sea level rise is so unremarkable on the east coast of NZ that it seems to be the same level now as it was in the 1960s.

Of course, sea level rise may be higher in areas where people believe in it. 555555555555555

"seems to be". Thanks for the brilliant piece of evidence.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

Currently, the emissions attributable to the richest 1 percent of the global population account for more than double those of the poorest 50 percent. Shifting that balance, researchers found, will require swift and substantial lifestyle changes, including decreases in air travel,

If they stop flying to have conferences on climate change that should cause a significant decrease in air travel.

 

How come they never seem to mention world population increase which is, IMO, the major contributor to man made emissions, or do something to reduce the destruction of the world's forests so people can eat more meat?

[VocalNeal]

Plants love CO2 the planet is greener now than it was in 1985 according to NASA who look down on the planet.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, VocalNeal said:

Plants love CO2 the planet is greener now than it was in 1985 according to NASA who look down on the planet.

I live next to a farm and the grass is growing gangbusters. It loves the increased CO2 and the heat.

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Plants love CO2 the planet is greener now than it was in 1985 according to NASA who look down on the planet.

Tell that to Australia and Siberia.

[Susco]

23 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

How come they never seem to mention world population increase which is, IMO, the major contributor to man made emissions

 

 I heard China had been working on a solution for that last year

[VocalNeal]

16 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Tell that to Australia and Siberia.

 

I think Australia is that large island at the bottom right of the picture?

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

How come they never seem to mention world population increase which is, IMO, the major contributor to man made emissions, or do something to reduce the destruction of the world's forests so people can eat more meat?

See the first comment in this thread. It addresses the simplistic notion you raise here.

[nauseus]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

See the first comment in this thread. It addresses the simplistic notion you raise here.

 

I can't open that report but I assume that it is based on the Emissions Gap Report 2020 of which a summary is linked here: 

https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/34438/EGR20ESE.pdf?sequence=8

 

Point 14 is the relevant one about rich and poor. But as usual the emphasis in on CO₂ and not much about any other GHG's.

 

The effects of global population increase on warming are complex, varied and important but not simplistic.    

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by nauseus
poor spelling

[placeholder]

6 hours ago, VocalNeal said:

 

I think Australia is that large island at the bottom right of the picture?

 

Does the word "fire" ring any bells? How about drought?

Edited December 10, 2020 by placeholder

[NorthernRyland]

That's Key West in Florida. My dad lived there in the 70s and I've been hearing about rising sea levels my entire life now yet the island remains exactly like it was before I was even born.

 

 

50 years ago:

 

 

Maybe it floods in 50 years? Maybe 500? Who knows at this point but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[sirineou]

1 hour ago, NorthernRyland said:

That's Key West in Florida. My dad lived there in the 70s and I've been hearing about rising sea levels my entire life now yet the island remains exactly like it was before I was even born.

 

 

50 years ago:

 

 

Maybe it floods in 50 years? Maybe 500? Who knows at this point but I'm not holding my breath.

 

"By 2045, the sea level in the Florida Keys will rise 15 inches, according to a projection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. As a result, the city of Key West—the economic powerhouse of Monroe County, Florida—would see more than 300 tidal flooding events per year within the lifetime of today’s 30-year mortgages. "

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/encroaching-tides-florida-keys#:~:text=By 2045%2C the sea level,of today's 30-year mortgages.

[NorthernRyland]

6 minutes ago, sirineou said:

By 2045, the sea level in the Florida Keys will rise 15 inches,

They were saying it would be flooded in 20 years 20 years ago. I've been hearing this my whole life but some how it never happens.

 

In 2045 we can reassess the situation and see if it warrants any action. Maybe 15 inches happens and it takes another 100 years for another 15 inches. I think that will give us enough time to rebuild the beach front properties.

[sirineou]

1 hour ago, NorthernRyland said:

They were saying it would be flooded in 20 years 20 years ago. I've been hearing this my whole life but some how it never happens.

 

In 2045 we can reassess the situation and see if it warrants any action. Maybe 15 inches happens and it takes another 100 years for another 15 inches. I think that will give us enough time to rebuild the beach front properties.

They never said it will flood 20 years ago, in fact I provided a link and a quote stating 2045 to the predictions by the Army core of engineers.

   Who are "they" anyway, can you provide a link to them where "they" said that  key west will flood 20 years ago due to global warming and rising seas? 

  By  2045 it will be too late, there is such a thing as a point of no return, a self reinforcing  cascade , that generates a vicious cycle and a tipping point. 

   No disrespect, but your math is not very good in this instance 2045 is not 100 years, to be precise it is about 24 years this being almost 2021. And the issue is not 15 inches, I am sure 15 inches can be mitigated via seawalls and fill, the problem is  high ties, and that global warming evaporates significantly more water into the atmosphere providing more energy and generating more and stronger weather events with higher storm surge, combined with a 15 inch sea rise. 

As I said , I mean no disrespect to you, I am sure you are well informant in your professional field of expertise, and many other subjects,  probably more so than I, but I am afraid in this subject , well not so much.

I suggest you google all the above mentioned issues .    

Edited December 10, 2020 by sirineou

[NorthernRyland]

7 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Who are "they" anyway, can you provide a link to them where "they" said that  key west will flood 20 years ago due to global warming and rising seas? 

  By  2045 it will be too late, there is such a thing as a point of no return, a self reinforcing  cascade , that generates a vicious cycle and a tipping point. 

 

I wish I could find a link. It's difficult to find old news articles.  This has been talked about ever since I can remember as a kid. I'm just noticing that it never materializes and maybe it's time to stop following these peoples leads.

[sirineou]

29 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

I wish I could find a link. It's difficult to find old news articles.  This has been talked about ever since I can remember as a kid. I'm just noticing that it never materializes and maybe it's time to stop following these peoples leads.

Global warming became an issue early 2000 , with all predictions indicating that if nothing was done by late 21st century ,( the century we are in now.) there will be global warming and consequently polar ice melting and sea rise.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/discovery-of-global-warming/#:~:text=Moreover%2C by the late 1970s,global warming would become apparent. 

 Please notice that  2000 was 20 years ago. No one predicted that sea levels will start rising immediately, because such thing would not have been a prediction, but rather an observation . " hey look sea is rising better get a snorkel "  LOL

The famous global warming documentary by All Gore that brought the issue to the general public's attention , was published in  2006, fifteen  years ago, and that was also making predictions rather than observations as far as sea levels are concerned, 

 I know the past four years with trump felt like 10 years, but, I think your math is a little off.  

By the way, I live in Florida, and have spend a considerable time in the Keys and have lived and scuba dived in Islamorada on the bay side , a left   off the Circle K in the middle   of US1

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

 

Please notice that  2000 was 20 years ago. No one predicted that sea levels will start rising immediately, because such thing would not have been a prediction, but rather an observation . " hey look sea is rising better get a snorkel "  LOL

 

There's one I found from 1989. Between 1 and 4 meters by 2030.

 

Who cares it's just some guy at The Guardian right? I've been hearing predictions like this my whole life and as of 2020 and the COVID panic I'm officially ignoring these people. It's Chicken Little as far as I can tell except with Science®™

[sirineou]

59 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

There's one I found from 1989. Between 1 and 4 meters by 2030.

 

Who cares it's just some guy at The Guardian right? I've been hearing predictions like this my whole life and as of 2020 and the COVID panic I'm officially ignoring these people. It's Chicken Little as far as I can tell except with Science®™

I989nwas 32 years ago ,ancient history, by 2000 better models had emerged. they  were early predictions that were adjusted as soon as 20 years ago as information , research and model became more advanced. 

The 1-2 degrees prediction by 2030 still stands. 

" Climate Scientists Predict How Global Temperature Will Rise Over Next Five Years. ... According to a new report, global temperatures are set to hit that 1.5 degree-rise well before 2030, despite the coronavirus pandemic's temporary effects on air pollution — but there's still hope for planet Earth." 

https://www.greenmatters.com/p/global-temperature-rise-predictions#:~:text=Climate Scientists Predict How Global Temperature Will Rise Over Next Five Years&text=According to a new report,still hope for planet Earth.

Anyway, I dont care I am 63 years old, non of these will happen on my watch, if you are all stupid enough to buy the petrochemichal industries propaganda, that's on you and you all will have to live with it, personally I will be comfortably resting 6ft under. 

 

Edited December 10, 2020 by sirineou

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, placeholder said:

See the first comment in this thread. It addresses the simplistic notion you raise here.

On 12/10/2020 at 4:18 AM, placeholder said:

Among some, there's this simpleminded belief that population growth is what is mainly driving environmental disaster and anthropogenic climate change. But in fact...

The world’s rich need to cut their carbon footprint by a factor of 30 to slow climate change, U.N. warns

"The world’s wealthy will need to reduce their carbon footprints by a factor of 30 to help put the planet on a path to curb the ever-worsening impacts of climate change, according to new findings published Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program.

Currently, the emissions attributable to the richest 1 percent of the global population account for more than double those of the poorest 50 percent. Shifting that balance, researchers found, will require swift and substantial lifestyle changes, including decreases in air travel, a rapid embrace of renewable energy and electric vehicles, and better public planning to encourage walking, bicycle riding and public transit."

The world’s rich need to cut their carbon footprint by a factor of 30 to slow climate change, U.N. warns - The Washington Post

 

 

Are you claiming that the approximately 6.5 billion additional people since WW2 account for less man made climate change than rich people?

 

As for rich people reducing their carbon footprint voluntarily by a factor of 30 anytime soon, IMO . Who is going to make them?

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

 

I wish I could find a link. It's difficult to find old news articles.  This has been talked about ever since I can remember as a kid. I'm just noticing that it never materializes and maybe it's time to stop following these peoples leads.

Many of us were NEVER following their lead.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

Are you claiming that the approximately 6.5 billion additional people since WW2 account for less man made climate change than rich people?

 

As for rich people reducing their carbon footprint voluntarily by a factor of 30 anytime soon, IMO . Who is going to make them?

 

 

Did you actually read what was written? It said the richest 1% consume twice as much as the poorest 50% of the world's population? How did you manage to come up with such a nonsensical takeaway?

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Did you actually read what was written? It said the richest 1% consume twice as much as the poorest 50% of the world's population? How did you manage to come up with such a nonsensical takeaway?

Talking of simplistic! Consumption does not necessarily contribute to warming, and the topic is warming, isn't it?

IMO when such as Gore and De Caprio lecture us about it, they are easy to scorn because of their love of flying in private jets. They are 2 rich people- do ya think they'll be reducing their consumption any time soon?