Thai economy recovering faster than predicted, but tourist arrivals worrying: BOT

[webfact]

Thai economy recovering faster than predicted, but tourist arrivals worrying: BOT

By The Nation

 

 

The Thai economy is recovering but downside risks and uncertainties remain high in the period ahead, says the Bank of Thailand.

 

 

The recovery would depend on the new Covid-19 outbreak and containment measures, as well as revival of the foreign tourist trade after global Covid-19 vaccination, BOT assistant governor Titanun Mallikamas said on Wednesday.

 

The central bank upgraded its economic projection for this year to 6.6 per cent contraction, from the 7.8 per cent contraction predicted in September.

 

However it downgraded its forecast for next year from 3.6 per cent to 3.2 per cent growth, due to the smaller number of tourist arrivals than projected, he said.

 

The impact of a prolonged Covid-19 outbreak abroad coupled with the fresh outbreak in Thailand would delay recovery of tourism, he added.

 

The central bank predicted 6.7 million visitors to Thailand this year, down from 39.7 million in 2019. It forecast just 5.5 million tourist arrivals next year, revising downwards its September projection of 9 million. The smaller projection is due to new surges of Covid infections in many countries. Tourism should recover significantly in 2022, assuming wider coverage of vaccination, said the bank. Revival of the tourism sector as a key engine of the Thai economy should drive growth to 4.8 per cent in 2022.

 

Domestic demand, especially in private consumption, has improved due partly to fiscal stimulus measures and the recovery of economic activities following relaxation of containment measures, the bank said. It expects private consumption to fall 1.4 per cent this year from 2019, then rebound to 2.8 per cent and 3 per cent in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

 

 

Continuity of government measures and policy coordination among government agencies would be critical to support the economic recovery. Fiscal measures must also continue to sustain the economy, said Titanun. In particular, the government should expedite budget disbursement under the recovery plan, he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30400107

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-24

 

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[Thaiophil]

32 minutes ago, webfact said:

The impact of a prolonged Covid-19 outbreak abroad coupled with the fresh outbreak in Thailand would delay recovery of tourism, he added.

Thank goodness for the experts????

 

Down in Hua Hin for Xmas. Really empty

[GeorgeCross]

1 hour ago, Thaiophil said:

Thank goodness for the experts????

 

Down in Hua Hin for Xmas. Really empty

 

Hua Hin is very quiet, it's like everybody has gone into covid hibernation. the streets are eerily quiet.

 

no-one here wants a repeat of the lockdown it seems

 

 

[RR2020]

2021 is a write off for tourism.

 

Just accept it and move on.

 

Europe and USA will be vaccinated by the summer.............. Asian countries will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

So restrictions and hoops to jump through will remain for 2021.

 

So tourism is not going to happen.    China wants "domestic tourism".....so they will not be visiting either.

 

Plan for 2022.........some tourism.

 

Plan for 2023.......return to mass tourism again (maybe)

[ourmanflint]

It still amazes me that journo's at national news agencies are quite so thick. 

 

For the nth time GDP growth of 3.6% in Q3 2021 means a change from -6.6 to -3 % 

 

It is *not* +3.6% which would mean a GDP growth of 10.2%

[Sujo]

What do they class as tourists? Surely no actual tourists would go there and sit in a hotel for 2 weeks.

[mr_lob]

1 hour ago, RR2020 said:

2021 is a write off for tourism.

 

Just accept it and move on.

 

Europe and USA will be vaccinated by the summer.............. Asian countries will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

So restrictions and hoops to jump through will remain for 2021.

 

So tourism is not going to happen.    China wants "domestic tourism".....so they will not be visiting either.

 

Plan for 2022.........some tourism.

 

Plan for 2023.......return to mass tourism again (maybe)

Nice optimism you have there!

[Isaan sailor]

Thailand still has a higher interest rate than its peers.  Yet central bank holds steady—and the Baht continues to strengthen.  Tourism and exports will suffer.

[ThailandRyan]

Farcical and not reality.  They must be living in an alternate reality to believe their own predictions, because they sure as hell are not in this universe.  Oh yes I forgot Thailand is the center of it's own universe, maybe they have taken a journey to the center of the earth where they are seeing things and hallucinating.  

[tomauasia]

On 12/24/2020 at 2:46 PM, RR2020 said:

2021 is a write off for tourism.

 

Just accept it and move on.

 

Europe and USA will be vaccinated by the summer.............. Asian countries will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

So restrictions and hoops to jump through will remain for 2021.

 

So tourism is not going to happen.    China wants "domestic tourism".....so they will not be visiting either.

 

Plan for 2022.........some tourism.

 

Plan for 2023.......return to mass tourism again (maybe)

Rubbish l know many Australians going to Thailand after new year. Myself included 

[stuandjulie]

5 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

Rubbish l know many Australians going to Thailand after new year. Myself included 

Many, really ?

COVID-19 and travel | Smartraveller

[tomauasia]

10 minutes ago, stuandjulie said:

Many, really ?

COVID-19 and travel | Smartraveller

What has smart traveller got to do with the people l know. 3 from Sydney 5 from Melbourne. All have money. We are not all poor lol. And more Toby Smith's dad / trainer and his boys also want to go from Perth. Smart traveller lol

[RR2020]

8 people.......wow

 

Thats a lot isnt it.

 

Will Prayut meet you at the airport with red carpet treatment ?

[Cali farong]

Let the good times roll. Many people from Australia 

you should get a job withTAT.  You’re 8 friends will save Thailand 

[Patong2021]

Pie in the sky economic prediction.

Much will depend on recovery of North America and Europe economies. Russia and China have financial damage they do not make public. India is in bad shape. If Thailand think that having only 20% of population vaccinated by Q4 2021 will make it open for foreign travelers, it is in dreamland. Maybe for Russia and Iran visitor,  but wealthier countries may still require 10-14 day self isolation for returning visitor and this will not work for short term high season tourist.  Ok for long stay.  I think 2021 will be year some bills must be paid.

[Stargeezr]

Yes the Winter of 2022 and 2023 may be the start of people travelling again.

This Winter will not have tons of visitors going anywhere in the world.

   Most people are still recovering from the work they missed during some of the 

lock downs and business closings.  Most countries are in recovery mode.

   I do hope that the majority of people get vaccinated, and the ones do are anti vaxxers

get sent to some quarantine place until they are not a danger to people around them.

Geezer

[billd766]

21 hours ago, tomauasia said:

Rubbish l know many Australians going to Thailand after new year. Myself included 

Really?

 

How many? 10. 20, 30............

 

What Thailand needs is millions of tourists and not just a few odd people.

 

Will they all be tourists or returning expats who are willing to spend 14 nights in an ASQ, and then be tagged and traced for the rest of their holiday?

 

Assuming that they can leave Australia and are willing to go into quarantine on their return?

Edited December 26, 2020 by billd766
Bad spelling

[bwpage3]

23 hours ago, tomauasia said:

Rubbish l know many Australians going to Thailand after new year. Myself included 

You know many? How many? 8?

 

The amount of people you know isn't going to change a darn thing.

 

Have fun in quarantine.

Edited December 26, 2020 by bwpage3

[Rimmer]

Some inflammatory posts and replies have been removed

[tomauasia]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

Really?

 

How many? 10. 20, 30............

 

What Thailand needs is millions of tourists and not just a few odd people.

 

Will they all be tourists or returning expats who are willing to spend 14 nights in an ASQ, and then be tagged and traced for the rest of their holiday?

 

Assuming that they can leave Australia and are willing to go into quarantine on their return?

There is no tagging and you all expect to go without quarantine. Never going to happen in any country. Yes we are and many others will follow. So stop trying the put a negative spin on Thailand. If you don't like it. Don't go. 

[Natai Beach]

22 hours ago, tomauasia said:

What has smart traveller got to do with the people l know. 3 from Sydney 5 from Melbourne. All have money. We are not all poor lol. And more Toby Smith's dad / trainer and his boys also want to go from Perth. Smart traveller lol

 

Appears some people (with no friends?) don’t believe you. 
 

I know over 30 who are planning next year, they would have come this year as well. 
Families to Khao Lak usually four star 2-3 weeker types, a retiree couple who will come for four months and go five star all the way and a few single blokes more three star and one usually comes about six times a year. 
 

They have all been before many, many times. The retired couple about 40 times since the 1970s.

 

it will be cheaper than usual as an added bonus. 
 

You got to wonder if the smart traveller actually travels.

Thailand will bounce back quickly. How long did it take Phuket after the tsunami? About 6 months. They will start letting in vaccinated tourists in February. People I know are planning the southern winter mainly June to November.

 

2022 will be back to 30 million plus. 

 

[tomauasia]

20 hours ago, RR2020 said:

8 people.......wow

 

Thats a lot isnt it.

 

Will Prayut meet you at the airport with red carpet treatment ?

Only if Toby goes lol

[Blumpie]

23 hours ago, tomauasia said:

Rubbish l know many Australians going to Thailand after new year. Myself included 

Tourism is not based on you and your drinking buddies.  It's based on numbers of people who are capable and actually able to enter, and who they are.  By far many are not the typical expat, but from Asia.

It's not rubbish at all.  

Tourism will be lucky to have a rebound by 2024.  

[billd766]

29 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

There is no tagging and you all expect to go without quarantine. Never going to happen in any country. Yes we are and many others will follow. So stop trying the put a negative spin on Thailand. If you don't like it. Don't go. 

Why would I not go.

 

I have lived for quite a few years here and I can see the effects every day. I can read and see posts all about the tourist industry from guys who actually live in tourist areas and get their information first hand. I know of several Thais who have been personally affected by the Covid crisis and have gone back to their rural families who now have to feed extra mouths while their own income is decreasing.

 

I don't have to put a negative spin on Thailand. The government, TAT and half the other government departments already do that.

 

You and your 7 mates coming on a holiday will not put one Thai person back into a job. If there were 7 or 8 million of you spread out over the year I would be cheering from the rooftop.

 

I live in rural Thailand and even out here businesses have closed, people sacked, not furloughed, sacked with no compensation. There are families who have no jobs and no income, so how can they afford to live, to send their children to school?

 

Please spare me the hypocrisy that you and your mates are the forerunners of the millions of foreign tourists who will come to save Thailand.

 

Come, enjoy yourself, but remember Thailand needs millions of tourists just to keep open.

Edited December 26, 2020 by billd766
Added extra text

[Rimmer]

More baiting and bickering posts have been removed, either stop this now or I will stop you.

 

 

[tomauasia]

2 minutes ago, billd766 said:

Why would I not go.

 

I have lived for quite a few years here and I can see the effects every day. I can read and see posts all about the tourist industry from guys who actually live in tourist areas and get their information first hand. I know of several Thais who have been personally affected by the Covid crisis and have gone back to their rural families who now have to feed extra mouths while their own income is decreasing.

 

I don't have to put a negative spin on Thailand. The government, TAT and half the other government departments already do that.

 

You and your 7 mates coming on a holiday will not put one Thai person back into a job. If there were 7 or 8 million of you spread out over the year I would be cheering from the rooftop.

 

I live in rural Thailand and even out here businesses have clpeople sacked, not furloughed, sacked with no compensation

Good for you. I was previously married to a Thai and lived there for 7 years. Have a gym and 2 condos currently. It's not my business what you do. We do not care for any negative opinion.

 

Good luck

[tomauasia]

44 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

 

Appears some people (with no friends?) don’t believe you. 
 

I know over 30 who are planning next year, they would have come this year as well. 
Families to Khao Lak usually four star 2-3 weeker types, a retiree couple who will come for four months and go five star all the way and a few single blokes more three star and one usually comes about six times a year. 
 

They have all been before many, many times. The retired couple about 40 times since the 1970s.

 

it will be cheaper than usual as an added bonus. 
 

You got to wonder if the smart traveller actually travels.

Thailand will bounce back quickly. How long did it take Phuket after the tsunami? About 6 months. They will start letting in vaccinated tourists in February. People I know are planning the southern winter mainly June to November.

 

2022 will be back to 30 million plus. 

 

You are a smart man. Living in Thailand. I very quickly learned how resilient Thais were. And as much as the army don't want nightlife. They will soon see that Thais wiil not give up.

[Susco]

53 minutes ago, Natai Beach said:

Thailand will bounce back quickly. How long did it take Phuket after the tsunami? About 6 months.

 

You lost me there. How you can compare a tsunami which hit Thailand , and then even just a very small part of it, compare with a worldwide pandemic? Sorry but that is just weird

Edited December 26, 2020 by Susco

[Natai Beach]

1 minute ago, Susco said:

 

You lost me there. How you can compare a tsunami which hit Thailand compare with a worldwide pandemic? Sorry but that is just weird

 

I didn’t say Thailand, I said Phuket. 
 

My point being at the time all the depressionists were claiming nobody would go to Phuket again. It recovered in six months and got bigger. 
 

Thiusands died in on the west coast of Thailand that day. It recovered in six months and continued to grow. People got over that/ forget quickly.
There has been one death on the whole of the Thai west coast because of covid. 
 

It also recovered quickly after SARS, the Bali bombing. 
 

Phuket is the comeback king.

[Susco]

1 minute ago, Natai Beach said:

I didn’t say Thailand, I said Phuket. 
 

My point being at the time all the depressionists were claiming nobody would go to Phuket again. It recovered in six months and got bigger. 

 

My point being, that the event you quote affected a single province in Thailand,  while covid affects the complete world

 

There is simply no comparison possible