China to leapfrog U.S. as world's biggest economy by 2028: think tank

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, connda said:

So.  Decades ago the US moves most of it's manufacturing base to China so corporations can employ dirt cheap labor and then reap massive profits.

Of course, typical Westerners including corporate big-wigs and their political lackys who help them to facilitate trade deals that make the corporations obscenely wealthy in the short and medium term while destroying their domestic labor force all fail 100% to plan long term. 
So back in Kissingers day they celebrate all the cheap labor and believe that China will remain a subservient bunch of coolies doing the bidding of their corporate betters.

See what happens when you fail to study both history and culture?  The typical American politican can't plan beyond the next election campaign, or about two years.  The typical corporate CEO can't plan beyond their current plan to extract as much wealth out of the system they are harvesting, or about 5 to 10 years.  The Chinese leadership?  Remember, the party membership and those planning the industrial manufacturing base as well as all future logistics including trade and defense - are all thinking in terms of decades.

The American industrial and manufacturing base is destroyed.  The leadership who can give trillions to banks and their friends in foreign countries can not even repair the US infrastructure.  American politicians have destroyed small and medium businesses, put millions of Americans out of work - probably permanently - and do nothing but print money that is based on an asset base which is an illusion.

China?  They have the manufacturing base which American multi-nationals created for them.  They have infrastructure which is now spreading across Asian, Eurasia, Central Asia, the Middle East right to Europe and Africa.  They are cementing trade deals not based on military force but on mutual economic benefit between trading partners.

So yeah.  China will overtake an America which now only has a service industry doing such important jobs as serving up fast-food for take-out only (and those employees along with most other service oriented jobs will be replaced with robots and end up among the other millions of out of work), and America which has no manufacturing or industrial base, where schools consider teaching kids to put condones on cucumbers and liberal ideology becomes more important to teach then teaching Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics as well as technical skills needed to run and program the computerized industrial and manufacturing centers of the future.

China will not only leapfrog the United States as an economic giant by 2028, but by 2040 they'll be interconnected commerce between 65 or more nations over a huge geographical area throughout Asia and beyond

Of course, most Western media sources negatively opine that China's New Silk Road plans are doomed to failure. 

Ultimately only time with tell. But considering organizations like the World Economic Forum moving base to Singapore as well as foreign capital inflows that are moving out of the West and into Asia?  I'd say that a lot of very rich people are betting that Asia will become the New First World by 2050.  China is just a part of that equation.

 

Good post and realistic prediction. China economic ascension should be embraced; not envied and certainly not threatened by trade policies and tariffs. China economic wellbeing is good for the their people and global prosperity. It also has changed Mao's Maxist on private ownership and equality. Prosperity also brought stability to their political system and to the world. As long as people believe the government will continue to make their lives better, they will be less internal conflict. Trump has done US more damage than China in his trade policies and tariffs and affected global markets. The world is better off having more big economies that compete within the rules of WTO than using trade policies unilaterally which are undermined by neo-con who have the ears and mind of a weak leader. 

[John Drake]

Might as well face facts. China did handle the pandemic better than the US. They do spend more on basic infrastructure needs. They do prize wealth producing subjects in higher education. They do not have people out burning their cities to the ground. And best of all, they clip the wings of their billionaires (see Jack Ma and Ant) when Chinese Big Tech and Big Business gets too big. I would like to see a few of America's big pharma and Wall Street thieves get the same punishment as they dish out in China: trial in the morning; firing squad that afternoon.

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59 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Might as well face facts. China did handle the pandemic better than the US. They do spend more on basic infrastructure needs. They do prize wealth producing subjects in higher education. They do not have people out burning their cities to the ground. And best of all, they clip the wings of their billionaires (see Jack Ma and Ant) when Chinese Big Tech and Big Business gets too big. I would like to see a few of America's big pharma and Wall Street thieves get the same punishment as they dish out in China: trial in the morning; firing squad that afternoon.

What cities in the USA have been burned to the ground? Are you thinking of Atlanta in 1865?

And as for corruption...the New York Times got banned in China for reporting on how the children of the government-elite have become super wealthy. Jack Ma got in trouble because he made the mistake of standing up to the government. In the USA Apple refused to knuckle under to the Justice Dept. requests for a back door so it could spy on communications. Can you imagine that happening in China?  

Yes China did do much much better in the face of Covid. But China has a big advantage: virtually no civil liberties. It's a police state.

[Stargeezr]

Hey Pegman, did you know that Quebec gets money from Alberta every year, as in millions of dollars, so they have a good economy and can even have some free child care

because of the Alberta Money..  BC. does not have a great economy right now as well..

 

  I am not peeved due to the facts. I am peeved because our leader Trudeau, who was born rich, and has not had a worry about money in all his life, has his green shades on and can afford for high prices that a lot of the common Canadian cannot afford. 

 

I am retired andhave very limited resources and know that some day if the electric cars and trucks can be owned with out the governments subsidy and are long lasting and there are lots of charging places all over Canada , Plus if I can plug in without my old house having its breakers blown, well I may be in a better mood for the Electric vehicles.   For now in this vast country that I live in I think that hybrid vehicles are a lot more practical.  China may have lots of electric vehicles being built, and in the big cities they may even have lots of places to charge all of them,  but that is only getting a start in Canada.   Many places like small towns only have a few places to charge cars, and some have none unless you are a house owner.    I seen lots of bikes and motorcycles in China a couple of years ago when I was there on a visit.    Most of the guides I talked to, had many family members who will never be able to afford any of those electric cars that they are building.  Thanks for your insight tho.

Geezer

[cmarshall]

The Chinese economy has been the largest for several years now based on Pricing Power Parity:

 

 

https://cepr.net/china-has-the-worlds-largest-economy-get-over-it/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+beat_the_press+(Beat+the+Press)&__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=25e5f1f66777f9f35d0195576bcb64dd91cfec2e-1609316991-0-Aajm-B5-UFF8WXIequbAlXm4kNzTkIGPuisMiSiOG0ri5_jer3RSu0GwhkHpUk0mpWOgPOxWfh5mK7b3d-9JGHMEowxyTcckgE8zA3H4ZJ4n67ep5QFX5-u2r07VPwJNHCZB5ZNyLLkVl8tsS7py8GoxZzJTCRHxzNEotzLJt6yR74Mot-qIjJ6eBtPr3-gmyjL6BSWdZsh1XUNNRMGAGtYhu_Z1g2GqiTM0DM1FtEwbaTldElCFGMXnGuyU3Ei-mCrM_z_BDBuyK46DY-3iF59ztAEgYG59w4NFw6yQWao48J1ukMFKnCuLKi3TlAYd-kuGcX9dj8Q6f1QBd9myxwYpG6O3r4KcQpo_V2CrwcI19jJrDvS-4a-Vyw7XSbfF2RfMMNbH8fzKSQ92OaHHehazU5smZqA7ybCWM3FmyH_upg64bhk-qG3blPMkaeem5HKRi3GJF0ky2AoKIUF7ZppMZpPqDMjbXVHfuIAGB61b8WPCOcWGFM7rx9QhgQHVYhiEY8GaOXIlBlkRJh5bTS5LkT4kH68LuMAKbdneUCfwFDarDcpjG-nflQWUwioWHw

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1 hour ago, cmarshall said:

The Chinese economy has been the largest for several years now based on Pricing Power Parity:

 

 

https://cepr.net/china-has-the-worlds-largest-economy-get-over-it/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+beat_the_press+(Beat+the+Press)&__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=25e5f1f66777f9f35d0195576bcb64dd91cfec2e-1609316991-0-Aajm-B5-UFF8WXIequbAlXm4kNzTkIGPuisMiSiOG0ri5_jer3RSu0GwhkHpUk0mpWOgPOxWfh5mK7b3d-9JGHMEowxyTcckgE8zA3H4ZJ4n67ep5QFX5-u2r07VPwJNHCZB5ZNyLLkVl8tsS7py8GoxZzJTCRHxzNEotzLJt6yR74Mot-qIjJ6eBtPr3-gmyjL6BSWdZsh1XUNNRMGAGtYhu_Z1g2GqiTM0DM1FtEwbaTldElCFGMXnGuyU3Ei-mCrM_z_BDBuyK46DY-3iF59ztAEgYG59w4NFw6yQWao48J1ukMFKnCuLKi3TlAYd-kuGcX9dj8Q6f1QBd9myxwYpG6O3r4KcQpo_V2CrwcI19jJrDvS-4a-Vyw7XSbfF2RfMMNbH8fzKSQ92OaHHehazU5smZqA7ybCWM3FmyH_upg64bhk-qG3blPMkaeem5HKRi3GJF0ky2AoKIUF7ZppMZpPqDMjbXVHfuIAGB61b8WPCOcWGFM7rx9QhgQHVYhiEY8GaOXIlBlkRJh5bTS5LkT4kH68LuMAKbdneUCfwFDarDcpjG-nflQWUwioWHw

But China does have 4 times the population of the US. And it's just a quibble but it's called Purchasing Power Parity

[cmarshall]

16 hours ago, placeholder said:

But China does have 4 times the population of the US. And it's just a quibble but it's called Purchasing Power Parity

 

Quite true, but the topic was about the size of the Chinese economy not the per capita GDP.  As long as the US per capita GDP is higher than China's then the American standard of living will continue to be higher as well.  But total GDP is important for other reasons such as determining whether a state can afford to achieve a first-class military or not.  Not that I am particularly worried about the Chinese military.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Happiness by country. Green is good, red is.....well China.

 

Edited December 31, 2020 by ExpatOilWorker

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Happiness by country. Green is good, red is.....well China.

 

Source?

[Patong2021]

On 12/27/2020 at 9:32 PM, Stargrazer9889 said:

Per Capita,  China is a green a Country.  Per capita China has had far fewer covid cases.

 

  Per capita,  blah  blah  blah.   Meanwhile, here in Canada our leader wants to charge us all more money on carbon tax because Canada produces so much of the world pollution.   Well actually not at all, but per capita  I guess we do, since Canada has only a little more than 30 million population.   I hate per capita  studies, and graphs etc.  I also hate going more broke because of our stupid leader and his rich guy,  green idea.

Geezer

What century are you living in?  Canada has  38 million population, not 30 million. Canadians produce more greenhouse gas emissions per person than any other G20 economy.  China has invested heavily in moving its country forward, emphasizing education and long range planning.  Look at how disrespectful westerners are to education and science. China   invests in education. How many western countries and businesses plan for the future? it is all about short term profit.

 

Yes, China is a very bad world polluter and environmental destroyer.  However,  a large part of the pollution  China creates is on behalf of its western customers.  We want cheap consumer items, and China obliges. An electrical appliance breaks down after 5 years and cannot be repaired. If  the west set quality standards..........

 

One thing I am sure about is that Covid 19 will change the world economy. Yes, the west is screwed up now. Yes, the economies are damaged. However, the west will recover and more importantly, many industries that had been allowed to go to China are being repatriated.  All the gouging on PPE and masks  resulted in western countries building their own production facilities. Companies retooled to manufacture  medical equipment  Soon laws will be passed requiring essential  drugs to be locally made. Assurance of supply chain will be more important than cheap labor. 

 

The wild card will be protectionist USA.  Trump administration took the goodwill and love of USA and turned it to hate, fear and loathing. While Trump was insulting everyone, the Chinese were  signing up silk road supporters.  The USA must rebuild trade agreements and repair damaged alliances.

[placeholder]

18 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

What century are you living in?  Canada has  38 million population, not 30 million. Canadians produce more greenhouse gas emissions per person than any other G20 economy.  China has invested heavily in moving its country forward, emphasizing education and long range planning.  Look at how disrespectful westerners are to education and science. China   invests in education. How many western countries and businesses plan for the future? it is all about short term profit.

 

Yes, China is a very bad world polluter and environmental destroyer.  However,  a large part of the pollution  China creates is on behalf of its western customers.  We want cheap consumer items, and China obliges. An electrical appliance breaks down after 5 years and cannot be repaired. If  the west set quality standards..........

 

One thing I am sure about is that Covid 19 will change the world economy. Yes, the west is screwed up now. Yes, the economies are damaged. However, the west will recover and more importantly, many industries that had been allowed to go to China are being repatriated.  All the gouging on PPE and masks  resulted in western countries building their own production facilities. Companies retooled to manufacture  medical equipment  Soon laws will be passed requiring essential  drugs to be locally made. Assurance of supply chain will be more important than cheap labor. 

 

The wild card will be protectionist USA.  Trump administration took the goodwill and love of USA and turned it to hate, fear and loathing. While Trump was insulting everyone, the Chinese were  signing up silk road supporters.  The USA must rebuild trade agreements and repair damaged alliances.

Very little manufacturing is being repatriated. Lots is being moved out of China to places like Vietnam, Mexico, Bangladesh. Some of that movement is a natural result of China becoming a more developed economy. Some is due to fear of dependence on China.

As for education in China, let's not get carried away. China only mandates education throught the 9th grade.

 

"What many—even in China—don't realize is that up to half of the nation's youth are flunked out of the academic education system after 9th grade."

Class Work: Vocational Schools and China's Urban Youth | T.E. Woronov (sup.org)

 

Unequal Primary Education Opportunities in Rural and Urban China

Unequal Primary Education Opportunities in Rural and Urban China (openedition.org)

 

 

 

[cmarshall]

6 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Trump administration took the goodwill and love of USA and turned it to hate, fear and loathing. While Trump was insulting everyone, the Chinese were  signing up silk road supporters.  The USA must rebuild trade agreements and repair damaged alliances.

 

You mean the goodwill and love of the USA that had survived the killing of up to one million Iraqis, every single one of whom was innocent both of 9/11 and WMD?  

[Patong2021]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

 

You mean the goodwill and love of the USA that had survived the killing of up to one million Iraqis, every single one of whom was innocent both of 9/11 and WMD?  

No. I refer to goodwill with UK/EU after USA not condemn Russia for political murders/attacks on people in EU/UK; failure to support Baltic states in dispute with Russia, withdrawal from Paris Accord, failure to support Australia in dispute with China, failure to support Canada on 2 hostages taken after Huawei arrest at US request, and the attempt to take medical supplies Canada had purchased and were legally due. The US was receiving supplies from Canada when it did this. Many examples. There is real hatred to USA now from countries who were once strong friends. China has purchased many friends during this time.

[Patong2021]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

Very little manufacturing is being repatriated. Lots is being moved out of China to places like Vietnam, Mexico, Bangladesh. Some of that movement is a natural result of China becoming a more developed economy. Some is due to fear of dependence on China.

As for education in China, let's not get carried away. China only mandates education throught the 9th grade.

 

"What many—even in China—don't realize is that up to half of the nation's youth are flunked out of the academic education system after 9th grade."

Class Work: Vocational Schools and China's Urban Youth | T.E. Woronov (sup.org)

 

Unequal Primary Education Opportunities in Rural and Urban China

Unequal Primary Education Opportunities in Rural and Urban China (openedition.org)

 

 

Do you  expect repatriation of manufacturing to be finished in only a few months? Impossible. it will take years. Most high value products are made with globally sourced components. This means that a manufacturer needs to first adjust its supply chain. The example of this is PPE manufacturing. Western countries have all set up new PPE manufacturing facilities and  support them with guaranteed government contracts. Those  facilities depend on  materials still sourced from China. Now they are moving to source locally or to diversify to safe countries. All this takes time.  The west is going to reduce permission for Chinese to come work/study at top western facilities where Chinese take knowledge  send back to China.

 

Ok so there is unequal opportunity in China for poor people. Same thing in other countries. The big difference is that  China does not need as many people to be high achievers for country to be a success.

In a land of 1 billion+  if only 10% are super educated that is still 100,000,000 and more than population of most countries.

 

 

 

[olfu]

I visited China numerous times and was impressed. Sure no Google, no democracy, scammers everywhere etc  but its same in US. US dont have democracy either as ruling class propaganda dominate. China get taste of good life and money. In short State Capitalism wins.

[impulse]

On 12/26/2020 at 8:57 PM, spidermike007 said:

A few things to consider here. First of all Xi won Trump's insane trade war, hands down. Trump was knocked out cold, 2 minutes into the first round. He simply does not know how to negotiate his way out of a paper bag. And he was likely outclassed by 60 or 70 IQ points. Which is not hard. 1

 

Second, in general, Asia is on the ascent, while the West, and especially the US, is on the decline. For a few decades, but worse now, than before.

 

With 5x the population of the USA, when the economies even up, you'd have to take away 80% of what Americans own and earn to put them on par with the average Chinese citizen.  That's a win?

 

And that's assuming the current GDP trends hold.  It's easy to follow a trail someone else has already blazed and paved.  The tough part comes when you try to get out front.

 

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

With 5x the population of the USA, when the economies even up, you'd have to take away 80% of what Americans own and earn to put them on par with the average Chinese citizen.  That's a win?

 

And that's assuming the current GDP trends hold.  It's easy to follow a trail someone else has already blazed and paved.  The tough part comes when you try to get out front.

 

Actually, it's 4 times the population of the US. But you are correct that because China is a developing nation, it is easier to grow faster since you get to avoid the inevitable mistakes fully developed economies make. Also, there is a huge amount of corporate debt much of it owed by state-owned zombie companies. Under Xi, the state owned sector of the economy is growing again. As part of that, he is compelling the private sector to support state banks making loans to failing state owned enterprises.

[onebir]

On 12/27/2020 at 11:26 AM, rabas said:

 

It might only require a couple more CoV-SARS-2 mutations. As the rest of the world approaches 100 million cases, the mutations start coming fast.

Don't the vaccines target conserved regions the spike protein needs to be able to dock with effectively with angiotensin receptors? If so, they should be at least somewhat effective against any mutation with the same basic replication strategy.

 

(That said I just checked how influenza replicates. Apparently it targets the 'sialic acid receptor', but the preceding logic doesn't seem to work for flu vaccines. Answers on a postcard to... me.)

[PatOngo]

Lead the way Emperor for Life! I am but a one term loser!