Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[Miami007]

5 hours ago, abrahamzvi said:

What is missing in my view is a total ban on travelling from one province to another. If this is not done, we are going to have situations like in the US or Europe. I believe that if such a ban and other measures like a nationwide closure of entertainment venues, possibly a night curfew and similar steps, are not imposed , we are going to have a strict nationwide total lock up, before too long.

Curfews are working because the virus is more active at night?

Banning travel between provinces or locking everyone inside their homes has only the little problem that it has to be indefinitely.  

The virus is here and won't be eradicated by these measures. 

 

But a great opportunity for any government to control citizens and take away freedom 

[bwpage3]

42 minutes ago, Donga said:

Worse case won't eventuate.

With general community discipline (compared to Europe as US), widespread masks, reasonable contact tracing (far superior to Europe and US), strong quarantine systems, health volunteers and advantage of the climate, expect will be much closer to his low projection of 1,000 per day than the moderate 8,000 or the 18,000 fear headline.

Let's see shall we.

You have no facts to make such a statement.

 

Contact tracing? Far superior? Really?

 

You think Thailand can know exactly how many migrant workers are in the entire country? The exact number that has snuck in?

 

No one has ever come to Isaan for any covid testing?

 

Climate is no advantage what so ever.

 

Do you have any clue what percentage of the population has been tested or the 1,000's of areas that have never been tested?

 

The worst case has eventuated in ALL of the most advanced countries in the world.

 

Yet Thailand, with it's huge influx of Chinese every year, hardly reported any cases.

 

You don't think that is odd?

 

You don't think after almost a year of no tourists how is there so many cases just now popping up?

 

You think a few migrants brought in covid as reported?

 

You don't think the dirty Thai wet markets, same as in Wuhan China, had any cases?

 

This is the same mentality (govt) with the fake bomb scanners, air ship blimps to fight terrorism (that never flew a single mission), coup detat, etc.

 

You really trust them to report the truth?

 

You cannot find covid with extremely limited testing, which appears what Thailand has done in the past. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Miami007]

22 minutes ago, ripstanley said:

I totally agree with your comments. The only big but is that non Thais will have to pay between 5,000 to 10,000 baht for the vaccine. This will be a big hole in the mass vaccination as many will be unable to pay.

If are a western citizen living in Thailand and you can't afford 5000 THB for a vaccine, you have some serious financial problems in the future. 

If USD 170 is breaking the bank, you are walking a tightrope without net in a foreign country 

[bwpage3]

2 hours ago, tandor said:

...well you behaved as if you were exempt from infection..bragged to the world and WHO whom patted you on the back and said you were doing a good job; but you weren't testing anywhere enough persons; now your crying foul..but you failed miserably in allowing illegal activities such as illegal border crossings, no quarantine, allowing positive cases to legally enter the kingdom, running illegal casinos, transporting illegal immigrants from another country into the kingdom, human trafficking, exposing a large number of patrons to positive carriers at a cancelled sporting event that was allowed to go ahead..all about the money at the expense of our health.

Shame, shame on you.  When are you ever going to get the message?

No mention letting Thai's back into Thailand from covid hotspots around the world with NO testing.

Edited December 29, 2020 by bwpage3

[dallen52]

5 hours ago, dcnx said:

They don’t have the capacity to test that many people per day. 

Pointing a thermometer at someone's head is not testing 

..

[bwpage3]

3 hours ago, jesimps said:

At the start of the virus last March, the Thais did the right thing and stopped people from entering the country. Why don't they now stop inter-province travel to contain the spread of it? There'll be a huge amount of people on the move at New Year, people returning to their home province and more importantly for me, families coming on holiday to Pattaya.

How many Thai's returned home from countries designated Covid hotspots with no testing?

[Caldera]

I can only guess that they will impose stringent measures based on these doomsday figures. Otherwise, what's the point of scaring people, if nothing will be done?

 

[lovethai123]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I have a simple question? Why was so much effort made to keep foreigners from entering the country, and so little effort made in keeping migrant workers from entering? 

well. the question is valid. easy to stop flights and prevent the dirty foreigners from entering the country. 

 

thailand shares a long border with laos, myanmar and cambodia.

 

there are gangs that facilitate the entry. everyone knows it. ask any burmese in pattaya how he got here. he will tell u. 

 

agreed they should have tightened the borders control but  it is practically impossible to have such a long border under human watch .

[lovethai123]

1 hour ago, SupermarineS6B said:

One good thing about all this, China will not be allowing Chinese tourists in and out of Thailand to re-infect China, so the boys at the trough better get the Farang red carpet out and dust it off.........  Chinese tourism's over for a few years..... 

why so desperate to be invited to the LOS? the days of farang red carpet is over. they dont need farangs or anyone else. cant u see they had been focussing so much on china in the past few years. 

[herfiehandbag]

5 minutes ago, ripstanley said:

I totally agree with your comments. The only big but is that non Thais will have to pay between 5,000 to 10,000 baht for the vaccine. This will be a big hole in the mass vaccination as many will be unable to pay.

I sadly suspect that very many Thais will have to pay. There will likely be a pecking order as to who will receive any vaccine. Let us just say that if you don't wear a uniform, green, brown or khaki, and are neither related or connected to someone who does, your chances of being vaccinated, at leat early on in the process, are probably going to be slim.

[bwpage3]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Arrest Dr. Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) immediately. Sentence him to hard time in prison for panic mongering and inciting the public. Take away his medical license permanently. With that level of irresponsibity, he should not be in the medical field.

 

The public are scared enough already. He is trying to whip them up into a frenzy. Or, is that the intention of this heinous administration? 

Ask yourself what percentage of the actual population has been tested?

 

Some countries have tested millions and found millions of cases.

 

If you do extremely limited testing, you find extremely limited cases.

 

Anyone that believes the govt did due diligence with testing is nuts.

 

Where did Thailand get all the test kits?

 

To this day, no one ever tested nor has anyone from the govt ever visited in Isaan?

 

Do you think dirty Thai wet markets are exempt, when they are the exact same as in Wuhan, China?

 

I would want the complete truth. The truth you can deal with. What you cannot deal with is a lie there is no covid.

 

Sooner or later you could be out and about anywhere in Thailand and catch it because you believe it doesn't exist in Thailand.

 

Thailand has dirty markets and filth everywhere you turn.

 

Illegals sneaking in everyday. Govt may know where some of them are, but not all of them?

 

Allowing Thai's to return home from covid hotspots across the globe with no testing?

 

Where are the facts on testing? 

 

Borders been closed for 9 months, yet Thailand is now finding 10,000's of cases? And blame that on probably the only 1 spot that was tested?

 

Better to inform people, and not give them a false sense of security there is no problem.

 

If there wasn't a problem to begin with, no one has ever answered the question why the entire tourism business was ruined when current cases are being blamed on a market and migrants?

 

In the US, I do not personally know 1 person that has test positive for Covid out of the millions. 

 

Do I run around town acting like it doesn't exist?

 

Absolutely not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[roquefort]

4 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

IMO there will be no stopping this Outbreak now.

Along with what appears to be some kind of self inflicted Death Wish upon the nation.... there is the population of Thailand to actually deal with.

And these people really dont like being told what to do, or adhere to laws.

Hang on to your Hats, its gonna be a rough ride.

There never was any "stopping" this outbreak without closing the borders completely, locking people in their homes for two years, or however long it takes to vaccinate enough people to get to that threshold that nobody dares to mention - herd immunity. This has become a taboo phrase now but it is, and always was the only way to "stop" a viral epidemic.

The reality is the virus is out there, and it ain't going away until it's no longer got any hosts to infect. You can do it the short way or the long way, but in the end the results will be the same. Thailand is lucky to have suffered less than many other countries due to as yet unknown factors - climate, diet, pre-existing immunity etc.

[morrobay]

47 minutes ago, Madeline Thompson said:

This is fear-mongering at its worst - what are these statistics based on specifically? Why 18,000 a day - rather than 800?  

Let's take the Ro to be 2.2 for a realistic example. And the transmission period to be a realistic 3 days . So between now and mid January there would be about 6 of these infection periods. ( The time on average an infected person to infect someone. The Ro is the base and the infection/transmission periods are the exponent. Starting with 144 new in infections today then we have : 2.2 ^6 

= 113. Then times 144= 16272

[Nout]

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

How do you know there wasn't? Very low testing = very low cases. I'm astounded people still think the previous numbers of infected are true and was the actual total number of infected people in Thailand. It doesn't make sense. They are now saying around 11.5% are positive. The last number of tests in Thailand I remember seeing all those months ago was in the mid 200,000's so more than likely 20,000+ positive. As I've said in another post, covid outbreak in AN AREA of Sydney. 400,000 tests in the last 2 weeks.

This makes sense: Zero tests, zero infections found. 

Infections manifest themselves irrespective of testing. Your last statement is erroneous

[bwpage3]

For all those that do not believe the government can lie, read this.

 

Russia admits coronavirus death toll 3 times higher than reported

 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-admits-coronavirus-death-toll-3-times-higher-than-reported

[hugocnx]

Seems like scare tactics to me and a possible tactic to have lockdowns initiated or continued. Not just Thailand but planet wide.

Check this link 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/who-warns-covid-19-pandemic-is-not-necessarily-the-big-one 

That's what I fear more than "The Covid"

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by hugocnx
Addition

[rabas]

14 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

Do you think dirty Thai wet markets are exempt, when they are the exact same as in Wuhan, China?

No, no, no....  

 

The Wuhan wet market was where China said SARS jumped from some unknown animal to humans. Since proven wrong anyway.  Nothing to do with migrant workers in Thailand's seafood industry.    Unless,  ... you fear, ...  SHRIMP-Covid--SARS3.

 

[dinsdale]

1 minute ago, Nout said:

Infections manifest themselves irrespective of testing. Your last statement is erroneous

Think you miss the point. Point being don't test, don't tell.

[bwpage3]

And for those that do NOT believe the virus is spreading, here is a good example from South Korea, which just now reported it's highest covid death toll.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/live-updates-coronavirus-12-29-2020

[herfiehandbag]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

No, no, no....  

 

The Wuhan wet market was where China said SARS jumped from some unknown animal to humans. Since proven wrong anyway.  Nothing to do with migrant workers in Thailand's seafood industry.    Unless,  ... you fear, ...  SHRIMP-Covid--SARS3.

 

Is the main significance of Wuhan not that it is the location of some sort of virus research establishment, with a less than stellar record for biosecurity?

[Anton9]

11 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

And for those that do NOT believe the virus is spreading, here is a good example from South Korea, which just now reported it's highest covid death toll.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/live-updates-coronavirus-12-29-2020

Wow, 40 deaths in a country of 60 millions.

Those are some serious pandemic numbers

Edited December 29, 2020 by Anton9

[Anton9]

15 minutes ago, hugocnx said:

Seems like scare tactics to me and a possible tactic to have lockdowns initiated or continued.

Not just Thailand but planet wide. That's what I fear more than "The Covid"

I'd rather get Covid then keep living in this dystopian world for a whole more year.

It's ridicolous the daily paranoia and brainwashing 

[desert dueller]

That ridiculous assembly of capital letter abbreviations is NOT an acronym as the string of letters cannot be pronounced as a word.

 

BMW is not an acronym, POTUS, however, is.

[cyril sneer]

still at only 1 death then since the 2nd (or 3rd) wave

 

perhaps it's been here all the time and herd immunity is keeping the death rate down

[Miami007]

3 hours ago, crankshaft said:

I can not believe that only this month of December that the Chinese plague is now on the rise in Thailand...with the number of Chinese tourists in Jan Feb Mar....The must be fudging of the numbers then...

I had asked several people on TV how they explained the low figures when Chinese tourists entered freely in January to March. 

Still no answer..

[desert dueller]

3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

they do   555.... trying to check people's temperature with broken/not reliable machines its their way of testing (this morning the guy at Makro took 5 tries with 2 different machine after 5th try he quit and so did I 555)

Never mind, don't worry, he has left Makro's employ and has since successfully applied as an astronaut for the Somchi One Moon spaceship. He will collect the fare and issue the tickets. Then he'll assume his monk reserved seat upfront and slowly boost the speed to 11km/h for the 4-year ride to the lunar surface....

[desert dueller]

Ah well, there goes the domestic tourism "revival"..... Or will they persevere and let everyone have a piece of that covid feast from the Samut Sakhon shrimpfest?

[teacherclaire]

Dr Taweesilp gave three projections, with the worst case scenario being 18,000 daily new cases by January 14th.

 

   This doctor might not know what other countries currently experience.

 

      Last week in Germany from Friday to Saturday 55,000 new infections and more than 500 deaths.

 

   Is it possible that they are dreaming and talk out of their thingy? 

 

The numbers could easily be much higher, no need to be a doctor, or a fortune teller. 

[hugocnx]

19 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

I'd rather get Covid then keep living in this dystopian world for a whole more year.

It's ridicolous the daily paranoia and brainwashing 

Surprise for you, it's not really an OR situation.

Agree with your second line.

[rabas]

29 minutes ago, Miami007 said:

I had asked several people on TV how they explained the low figures when Chinese tourists entered freely in January to March. 

Still no answer..

China locked down Wuhan on Jan 22 and stopped overseas tours. THAI Airways first announced flight cancellations on Feb 20. The first Thai case (traveller) was diagnosed Jan 13, followed by strict border screening.

 

Most important, a weak virus strain, D614, initially spread throughout Asia. January through March was a cake walk.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by rabas