Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[Bender Rodriguez]

is it an outbreak ? really ?

 

or they finally start to TEST A LITTLE

 

don't test, don't tell

 

test a little, get some infections

 

test a lot,  start to <deleted> your pants in panic and lockdown everything forever

[Bender Rodriguez]

I hope schools go back to online learning, my kids will not mind, save them an early wake-up, one hour brainwashing session in the morning, ...

[NoshowJones]

14 hours ago, Miami007 said:

If are a western citizen living in Thailand and you can't afford 5000 THB for a vaccine, you have some serious financial problems in the future. 

If USD 170 is breaking the bank, you are walking a tightrope without net in a foreign country 

A western citizen should not be expected to pay for something that probably has about a 95% profit margin, just

whose pockets would be getting filled with all that profit? It is just pure theft.

[MaiDong]

9 minutes ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

I hope schools go back to online learning, my kids will not mind, save them an early wake-up, one hour brainwashing session in the morning, ...

Our sons school already closed last week, thankfully! 

He gets to wake up 2 hours later, doesn't sit in brainwashing and boring/pointless assembly. 

He still has to do the braindead lessons but the actual work only takes about 1 minute, mostly copying and pasting... Sometimes I wonder what the fees get spent on. 

All in all, everyone at home is happy, keep them closed! 

[Stargeezr]

If people keep arriving into Thailand and spread the virus before they are quarantined, well

it will not take too much longer for the expected worst case  situation to become a reality.

   Good luck with your 2nd then 3rd and 4th wave of this virus. I actually think that if

Thailand lets down its caution, and shortens the quarantine requirements anytime soon, the country

will get big numbers of the virus.  Forget mass tourism until the whole world has this virus controlled

or you too can become a hot spot for Covid..

Geezer

[cyril sneer]

i'm interested to see which route they go down, either: -

 

- the honest way, whereby they test and report every positive case or death, or

 

- the model they followed earlier in the year, hiding cases/refusing to test, in order to flatten the curve and help the economy

[chrisinth]

20 hours ago, Moonlover said:

Back in July it was reported that Thailand had 209 test centres throughout the country. Should we reach the projected level of 18,000 per day, which I very much doubt, that will average out at 82 tests per centre per day.

 

I'm sure they can cope.

 

Sorry, I can't post the reference of the source because it was in the Bangkok Post, but it's easy enough to find.

Thats assuming that the infections will be equal throughout the nation. Thats not the way this virus works. The test centres in the hot zones will be maxed out.

[Moonlover]

2 minutes ago, chrisinth said:

Thats assuming that the infections will be equal throughout the nation. Thats not the way this virus works. The test centres in the hot zones will be maxed out.

 

Then place lot's of test facilities in the urban areas and less of them in the rural areas, thus reflecting the population distribution. Do recall that during the 1st wave there were relatively few cases out here in 'rice paddy land' compared to the cities. So, concentrate the facilities where they most expect to need them.

 

Simple really isn't it. Don't you think that they will have thought that out?

[shan777]

I  have just returned from Phuket  and while there , i was told some thing very worrying by a local about a certain (unnamed )resort used to QUARINTINE people from a certain Asian  country , nothing usual you may think with that , but what he told me makes a joke of the quarantine   . People have the full run of the resort ,restaurant's etc  ,so people who have or are about to finish there quarantine are mingling with new arrivals. This is a total joke if what he told me is true. And need to be checked out by the Thai government, random checks and very heavy fines  

[rabas]

Thar she blows.  The MOPH just reported +250 new cases.

 

As for testing, they have 209 labs total but are probably limited by national resources of things like reagent stocks, not the number or location of labs. 

 

https://covid19.ddc.moph.go.th/en

Edited December 30, 2020 by rabas

[tandor]

18 hours ago, PGSan said:

Blah blah blah????   Who/what is all this about?  

Blah blah = My opinion and analysis of the history of the pandemic in Thailand.

WHO = World Health Organization. 

What is all this about = how this country hasn't done the right and proper thing by controlling its borders and those officials and other persons in authority.

Do you get it now?

[runamok27]

This wave will burn out by the middle to end of January if not sooner. The virus just doesn't spread in Thailand like other places and it is not nearly as severe. They are having all of these infections now but watch in about 2 weeks the deaths will hardly tick up. The spread may continue at a moderate pace due to actual testing but watch the death numbers barely move. The weak in Thailand die, the weak in the West are kept alive with a pile of pills, so there are far, far more people who can be killed by this virus due to pre-existing conditions. 

 

Look what happened at the beginning of this pandemic in Thailand. Thailand shut down and millions of workers who lost their jobs were supposed to scatter across the country and bring the virus to every corner of Thailand and nothing much happened. If that initial pin headed move didn't crush Thailand with the virus a few hundred folks sneaking across the border bringing the virus with them won't either. 

 

Do you all really think this is the only tiny spike of the virus Thailand has experienced in the last 12 months? It has probably been going on the whole time but nobody noticed because there are so few severe cases in Thailand. No matter what the government does, mark my words, this will completely blow over in less than a month. Lockdown or not lockdown will make no difference, it will be gone shortly.

[soalbundy]

10 minutes ago, runamok27 said:

This wave will burn out by the middle to end of January if not sooner. The virus just doesn't spread in Thailand like other places and it is not nearly as severe. They are having all of these infections now but watch in about 2 weeks the deaths will hardly tick up. The spread may continue at a moderate pace due to actual testing but watch the death numbers barely move. The weak in Thailand die, the weak in the West are kept alive with a pile of pills, so there are far, far more people who can be killed by this virus due to pre-existing conditions. 

 

Look what happened at the beginning of this pandemic in Thailand. Thailand shut down and millions of workers who lost their jobs were supposed to scatter across the country and bring the virus to every corner of Thailand and nothing much happened. If that initial pin headed move didn't crush Thailand with the virus a few hundred folks sneaking across the border bringing the virus with them won't either. 

 

Do you all really think this is the only tiny spike of the virus Thailand has experienced in the last 12 months? It has probably been going on the whole time but nobody noticed because there are so few severe cases in Thailand. No matter what the government does, mark my words, this will completely blow over in less than a month. Lockdown or not lockdown will make no difference, it will be gone shortly.

I keep hearing that it won't spread so badly in Thailand because of the hot weather.... but it isn't exactly cold in Brazil or California either.

Edited December 30, 2020 by soalbundy

[runamok27]

9 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

I keep hearing that it won't spread so badly in Thailand because of the hot weather.... but it isn't exactly cold in Brazil or California either.

I lived most of my life in California and it is not hot there for most of the year. The areas in California with the most people, by far, has very mild weather compared to Thailand. In Thailand it isn't just about the hot weather, although that probably does slow the spread some. 

1. Very hot and humid. 

2. Very low numbers of vulnerable people. In Thailand the weak die, in the West, the weak are kept alive with a pile of pills.

3. Thai's spend the vast majority of their time outside, which has been proven that the virus does not spread well outside. The vast majority of infections occur inside. 

4. Thai's appear to have very strong immune systems. Most likely from growing up and basking in germs instead of being germaphobes and constantly sanitizing everything.

 

Like I said in my original post, this will burn out very shortly, for a variety of reasons. 

[Burma Bill]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

The latest outbreak has now spread to 45 provinces

 

Just 28 more to go - 73 Provinces in total!!

[Phulublub]

4 hours ago, Road Warrior said:

we ask --where is the vaccine ?????    the rest of the world has got vaccine!!!!!!!  

It has?  You might like to tell that to the US where, at current vaccine aplication rate the populatoo will all be vaccinated by some time in 2030.

 

But Thailand (and other non-First world countries) might have a better chance of early vaccine if the rich west had not bought up pretty much all of the early production.

 

PH

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

But Thailand (and other non-First world countries) might have a better chance of early vaccine if the rich west had not bought up pretty much all of the early production.

 

PH

Thailand put all of their eggs in the contract with AstraZenica and as far as I know never tried to contract with the other makers.  So what does that tell you.  They were also going to produce the AstraZenica Vaccine locally.  Sounds to me they looked at it from a money making perspective instead of ensuring the safety of the countries inhabitants.

[Moonlover]

5 hours ago, possum1931 said:

19 hours ago, Miami007 said:

If are a western citizen living in Thailand and you can't afford 5000 THB for a vaccine, you have some serious financial problems in the future. 

If USD 170 is breaking the bank, you are walking a tightrope without net in a foreign country 

 

5 hours ago, possum1931 said:

A western citizen should not be expected to pay for something that probably has about a 95% profit margin, just

whose pockets would be getting filled with all that profit? It is just pure theft.

I completely agree with @possum1931I am in a position to pay 5,000 TBH, but if my wife and I turned up together and I was asked to pay more than she was, I would flatly refuse to pay. This is no time for extortion.

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Moonlover

[BernieOnTour]

Where did he get these numbers ???? ? ... Imperial College, Neil Ferguson, who forecasted already millions of fatalities from Swine Flu?

 

He should better consult  Ioannidis:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3

However - maybe, evaluating the whole study is to complicated for him ... so just scroll to “Conclusions” in the abstracts!

Edited December 30, 2020 by BernieOnTour

[Joinaman]

On 12/29/2020 at 2:15 PM, abrahamzvi said:

What is missing in my view is a total ban on travelling from one province to another. If this is not done, we are going to have situations like in the US or Europe. I believe that if such a ban and other measures like a nationwide closure of entertainment venues, possibly a night curfew and similar steps, are not imposed , we are going to have a strict nationwide total lock up, before too long.

confused

if we have a total ban on travelling, this will stop the infections spreading to other areas

But, what happens to the people who stop travelling, do they suddenly become free of the virus ?

if you lock down the areas, you contain the virus within that area, so why does the death rate not increase in these areas ?

So the "deadly" virus will not get you in the shopping malls, takeaways, government offices, etc, but will kill you in a bar or restaurant ?

And how do they arrive at these "magic" figures of 18,000, when they have no idea how many people carry the infection ?

and with a death rate of 1 in a million, surely that' better odds than crossing a road or driving a car, all of which we do without any fear 

[Joinaman]

4 hours ago, Phulublub said:

It has?  You might like to tell that to the US where, at current vaccine aplication rate the populatoo will all be vaccinated by some time in 2030.

 

But Thailand (and other non-First world countries) might have a better chance of early vaccine if the rich west had not bought up pretty much all of the early production.

 

PH

But i thought Thailand was a rich Asian country ? 

or maybe they took too long trying to work out the brown envelopes  first

Im sure china would have sold them a vaccine if they asked nicely 

[tandor]

5 hours ago, runamok27 said:

This wave will burn out by the middle to end of January if not sooner. The virus just doesn't spread in Thailand like other places and it is not nearly as severe. They are having all of these infections now but watch in about 2 weeks the deaths will hardly tick up. The spread may continue at a moderate pace due to actual testing but watch the death numbers barely move. The weak in Thailand die, the weak in the West are kept alive with a pile of pills, so there are far, far more people who can be killed by this virus due to pre-existing conditions. 

 

Look what happened at the beginning of this pandemic in Thailand. Thailand shut down and millions of workers who lost their jobs were supposed to scatter across the country and bring the virus to every corner of Thailand and nothing much happened. If that initial pin headed move didn't crush Thailand with the virus a few hundred folks sneaking across the border bringing the virus with them won't either. 

 

Do you all really think this is the only tiny spike of the virus Thailand has experienced in the last 12 months? It has probably been going on the whole time but nobody noticed because there are so few severe cases in Thailand. No matter what the government does, mark my words, this will completely blow over in less than a month. Lockdown or not lockdown will make no difference, it will be gone shortly.

..i for one will not 'mark your words', as i doubt very much that your are virologist...its not about the deaths but more of the debilitating resulting conditions the sufferers have to bear.

[Joinaman]

6 minutes ago, tandor said:

..i for one will not 'mark your words', as i doubt very much that your are virologist...its not about the deaths but more of the debilitating resulting conditions the sufferers have to bear.

while i agree with your post about the covid giving debilitating conditions, but surely this condition is not confined just to Covid, is it ?

im guessing there are many other illnesses and diseases that give these conditions too,, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc, yet we only ever seem to mention the Covid one. 

[Joinaman]

5 hours ago, Burma Bill said:

 

Just 28 more to go - 73 Provinces in total!!

How do they know its not in every province ?

How do they know how many infected people there are ?

They only know, for the majority of people, if they test them, with the very few people actually showing symptoms, with even fewer people dying 

Keep testing and the numbers go up, as it would with testing for the flu, but it seems that has little bearing on the number of deaths, which at the moment is still less than 1 in a million 

[Joinaman]

17 hours ago, smew said:

So in the end,  it was not the tourists that brought it in but Thai jumping the quarantine.

 

Funny as hell... almost wan to cry...  

it seems that Thais do not need to be tested prior to travelling on a plane, unlike any other passenger

Seems to make a mockery of the testing and paperwork the farangs have to go through , who then can be given the virus by the Thais while travelling 

[katatonic]

23 hours ago, desert dueller said:

That ridiculous assembly of capital letter abbreviations is NOT an acronym as the string of letters cannot be pronounced as a word.

 

BMW is not an acronym, POTUS, however, is.

Bavaria Motor Werken

[metisdead]

A post of a vulgar context has been removed. 

[Phulublub]

1 hour ago, Joinaman said:

But i thought Thailand was a rich Asian country ? 

or maybe they took too long trying to work out the brown envelopes  first

Im sure china would have sold them a vaccine if they asked nicely 

Thailand is relatively rich compared to some of its neighbours.  But so what?  Compared to the G20 it is not.

 

Of course, if you did some rudimentary research rather than spouting ill informed anti-Thai sentiment, you might discover that Thailand partnered with AZ to produce their vaccine here - n agreement made quite some time ago.  Forsight and planning by Thais?  Shorely not.  Must have been brown envelopes, right?

 

Given that most of this and neighbouring countries do not have extensive VERY deep freezer availability to be able to use the Pfizer vaccine, waiting for the AZ one (which has just been approved in UK BTW) might just have been a sensible and farsighted decision.  But I doubt the Thai knockers will acknowledge that; will you?

 

PH

[Joinaman]

24 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

Thailand is relatively rich compared to some of its neighbours.  But so what?  Compared to the G20 it is not.

 

Of course, if you did some rudimentary research rather than spouting ill informed anti-Thai sentiment, you might discover that Thailand partnered with AZ to produce their vaccine here - n agreement made quite some time ago.  Forsight and planning by Thais?  Shorely not.  Must have been brown envelopes, right?

 

Given that most of this and neighbouring countries do not have extensive VERY deep freezer availability to be able to use the Pfizer vaccine, waiting for the AZ one (which has just been approved in UK BTW) might just have been a sensible and farsighted decision.  But I doubt the Thai knockers will acknowledge that; will you?

 

PH

thanks for this 

research 

 you mean the signing of the agreement in November, but will take until March before putting into operation making the public wait for the vaccine while this so called deadly virus rages through Thailand 

Why is this anti Thai sentiment ? is it not fact ? 

Are you saying that such a progressive's and far reaching country like Thailand is incapable of manufacturing or purchasing deep freezers, as per other countries, which if they had the Foresight to do so, could now be carrying out the vaccinations this country needs, while awaiting the new vaccine next year 

Knocking them, noooo , wouldn't dream of it 

But i think the brown envelopes will have a say in what happens  next 

[Patong2021]

On 12/29/2020 at 6:56 AM, Donga said:

Worse case won't eventuate.

With general community discipline (compared to Europe as US), widespread masks, reasonable contact tracing (far superior to Europe and US), strong quarantine systems, health volunteers and advantage of the climate, expect will be much closer to his low projection of 1,000 per day than the moderate 8,000 or the 18,000 fear headline.

Let's see shall we.

If large gatherings, events  continue, all the measures above are for nothing. Gatherings outside of immediate family must be stopped. Offices, BTS  must reduce the crowding.