2 hours ago, Nout said:

No they are not idiots. A vaccinated person  might have protection for themselves but may still be able to carry and communicate the infection to other people thus the need for quarantine. To use the term idiot about caring and intelligent medical experts is deeply offensive.

I know as you say I am an Idiot but I hear a lot of "mights" and "mays"  in your Genius level post. 

On 12/29/2020 at 1:31 PM, djayz said:

Well obviously! Who else is going to pay for all these empty hotel rooms? 

Kerching. 

On 12/29/2020 at 11:54 PM, ukrules said:

They're idiots, vaccination is the only way out of this mess and as such it's their ultimate goal yet it's obviously not good enough for them.

 

I suspect they will also be quarantining recovered patients as well, those who are immune to it?

and you are an immunologist ? try hydroxychloroquine or even the 2015 Nobel prize winning  drug in tablet form . You also may have to wait for hydroxychloroquine as the worlds 2nd largest producer just had their factory destroyed by fire

 

5 minutes ago, theslime said:

and you are an immunologist ? try hydroxychloroquine or even the 2015 Nobel prize winning  drug in tablet form . You also may have to wait for hydroxychloroquine as the worlds 2nd largest producer just had their factory destroyed by fire

 

 

I'm not but I have contacts with many in the medical profession over in the UK who are working on the COVID situation right now and am well aware of all recent developments, ongoing studies, etc.

 

If I need to know more I will ask them rather than rely on a forum full of speculators.

 

As for Hydroxychloroquine, there are ongoing studies. Nothing more.

 

P,ease don’t let this be an issue. You did not think by getting a vaccine that Thailand would open it door. They got to get your money for the lost of tourist.  They are only sealing the doors of no return of tourist. I wonder what the young citizens of this country thinks about this statement put out to the world in a time of need? ????????????????

On 12/30/2020 at 2:04 AM, RR2020 said:

The vaccinations are not 100%

 

If they are 90% or 95%......that means potentially 10 people in 100 or 5 people in 100 are coming in with Covid.

 

And that will spread to all Thais as Thailand has no herd immunity and is very susceptible.

 

So of course 14 days quarantine must remain.

 

 

Until Thai's are vaccinated (due to commence May or June 2021) and all the at risk are done (by say October 2021) then ASQ and quarantine must remain for all people entering Thailand.

 

Unfortunately your calculations are way off. 

Your assumption of 10 people having covid if the vaccine is 90% effective is wrong.

This assumption is only valid if 100% of the world population has Covid.

Currently 1.06% of the population has or has had Covid WITHOUT a vaccine.

 

So based on that your assumption of 5 people possibly entering Thailand with covid for every 100 people, well you need to add a few more zero's to the 100

 

The true number is actually closer to 5 people in every 100,000 who enter Thailand could potentially have Covid. 

On 12/30/2020 at 2:24 AM, ukrules said:

They're idiots, vaccination is the only way out of this mess and as such it's their ultimate goal yet it's obviously not good enough for them.

 

I suspect they will also be quarantining recovered patients as well, those who are immune to it?

Washington Post today headlines. 

Covid vaccination program off to a slow start, rings alarm bells. 

 

They do not know if vaccinated people will be able to spread the virus yet. 

So vaccinated people should go into quarantine until they do know. 

 

A wise decision this is. 

On 12/29/2020 at 1:24 PM, ukrules said:

They're idiots, vaccination is the only way out of this mess and as such it's their ultimate goal yet it's obviously not good enough for them.

 

I suspect they will also be quarantining recovered patients as well, those who are immune to it?

The AZ vaccine which has been ok'd in the UK today comes with the warning that 

you can still contract and pass on the virus up to 3 weeks of the inoculation.

 

It is always better to inoculate before the disease is in the population, which 

is why the winter flu jabs are given in the autumn and why babies are vaccinated 

for all sorts of things early on.

 

I know that in this situation it is not possible, but the jab doesn't give immediate

100% protection and so I would say that the Thai authorities are right to be cautious.

 

There is a vast difference between possibilities and probabilities. Is it possible that a vaccinated person can pass the virus? Sure, is it probable? They had several months of tests on a large diverse population, didn't occur to them to check? Then there is the law of diminishing returns, according to a report I read 96% of covid occurs with in 9 days of infection. the remaining 6 days of quarantine has marginal safety returns at best. 

So how many people were quarantined in Thailand? of those what percentage developed covid, and how long into the quarantine? what is 4% of the quarantined population that developed covid?

I am willing to bet a very small number.

 by what additional percentage would that 4% be reduced if that population was vaccinated?  

Then there is the concept of acceptable risk...........

I just realized why Thailand never got colonised. The colonials came here, took a look and said  "screw that" turned around and went to more reasonable places. 

12 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

The AZ vaccine which has been ok'd in the UK today comes with the warning that 

you can still contract and pass on the virus up to 3 weeks of the inoculation.

 

It is always better to inoculate before the disease is in the population, which 

is why the winter flu jabs are given in the autumn and why babies are vaccinated 

for all sorts of things early on.

 

I know that in this situation it is not possible, but the jab doesn't give immediate

100% protection and so I would say that the Thai authorities are right to be cautious.

 

 

So when you've been vaccinated with two shots and a couple of months later decide to take a trip do you think quarantine is still applicable?

 

Lets assume massive percentages of many populations will be vaccinated before about September 2021 (they will be), come winter 2021 these people shouldn't need to quarantine and I'm going to suggest that they won't need to, all the rules will be very different by then.

 

In the first 3 quarters of 2021 I also suspect Thailand will receive almost zero tourists, so few that they will barely count.

11 minutes ago, ukrules said:

 

So when you've been vaccinated with two shots and a couple of months later decide to take a trip do you think quarantine is still applicable?

 

Lets assume massive percentages of many populations will be vaccinated before about September 2021 (they will be), come winter 2021 these people shouldn't need to quarantine and I'm going to suggest that they won't need to, all the rules will be very different by then.

 

In the first 3 quarters of 2021 I also suspect Thailand will receive almost zero tourists, so few that they will barely count.

Like i mentioned before here . For now , yes . We got worldwide few people who did get their shot yet , and their effect is way to early to see in the daily numbers . Once the numbers are turning , and much more people did get their shot , then im sure we will see a shift in policy . I think September 2021 is a good viewpoint , since i am sure if all works out good , by then the numbers would be getting extremely low ( not mentionable since pretty steady low , and will stay like that ) , and more then 50% would have gotten their vaccine .

I do not think they will keep this regulation , once the vaccine has proven to be working good , and enough people did get it . This is actually exactly has he said also , always read between the lines , he says no reason to change the regulations now , because no data on effectiveness . All countries are still trying to manage / control the situation , who is talking about lifting measures , even if vaccination started or is starting next week ? I hear only more rules or equal ... not softer atm at all .

If I am vaccinated would I also need to buy Cocid 19 insurance?

On 12/29/2020 at 8:24 PM, ukrules said:

They're idiots, vaccination is the only way out of this mess and as such it's their ultimate goal yet it's obviously not good enough for them.

 

I suspect they will also be quarantining recovered patients as well, those who are immune to it?

 

Pfizer have already admitted that their so-called “vaccine” neither stops you catching nor transmitting covid, it merely “alleviates symptoms”. Maybe the Thais have read the small print and you have not.

Edited December 31, 20205 yr by onthedarkside
flame comment removed

1 hour ago, sirineou said:

If I am vaccinated would I also need to buy Cocid 19 insurance?

The vaccine isn't working 100% and nobody knows how long it will work. What do you think?

On 12/30/2020 at 8:06 AM, starky said:

Of course it will be endemic. Spanish flu is still here why would anyone think this virus will? I agree though locking people up forever is not and has not worked.

Look what happened to Sars 1 the closest relo of Sars Cov 2,Sars1 just stopped due to basic hygiene so really Sars Cov 2 could do anything including slowing down and stopping like they all do and like you said with or without a silly lockdown.

Here's an excellent article on why the vaccines have become available so early compared to earlier vaccines.

Basically it's the money and resources thrown at the problem plus a little luck not the least of which was that the virus was genetically mapped very early in the process.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/26/ten-reasons-we-got-covid-19-vaccines-so-quickly-without-cutting-corners

A post with a link to an unapproved social media site has been reported and removed:

 

18) Social Media content is not to be used as  source material unless it is from a recognized or approved news media source,  the source of any such material (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube  etc.) should always be shown.

When there is vaccine for stupidity LOS should be the testing grounds.  

Every day a different ''EXPERT'' decides his guidelines and other ''experts'', wanting to outdo, him/her add their own without any scientific proof. 

There cant be that many, if any at all, who has had both vaccine shots anyway.

On 12/30/2020 at 2:13 PM, RR2020 said:

 

Data Link :  https://t.co/lIaln2odu4?amp=1

 

Look at TAB 3

 

Age groups and No Pre-Existing Condition.

 

All data is on the NHS web site.

 

 

Sorry but those figs don't seem to be easily navigated from the numbers originally provided by your good self.

11 hours ago, ukrules said:

 

So when you've been vaccinated with two shots and a couple of months later decide to take a trip do you think quarantine is still applicable?

 

Lets assume massive percentages of many populations will be vaccinated before about September 2021 (they will be), come winter 2021 these people shouldn't need to quarantine and I'm going to suggest that they won't need to, all the rules will be very different by then.

 

In the first 3 quarters of 2021 I also suspect Thailand will receive almost zero tourists, so few that they will barely count.

I'm not sure these directions will apply in 9 months time, there may not be quarantine requirements 

 by then if the vaccination program has been rolled out in Thailand.

 

In the short term, an official document, accepted by the local authorities stating which vaccine

and what dosage has been given to the individual. This may well prove difficult and open to 

abuse, so probably best to keep the current rules.

 

My mum has had the first of her 2 Pfizer jabs and wasn't given any official documents to 

say that she had, despite asking the nurse specifically as she has a holiday planned in the 

summer and she was concerned about insurance.

 

10 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

The vaccine isn't working 100% and nobody knows how long it will work. What do you think?

So you think an Insurance actuary should assign the same risk factor for someone who is vaccinated and only has a 5% virus risk exposure and someone unvaccinated that has a 100% risk exposure.   

Hard to make plans with so much uncertainty.

I am not sure if we deserve to survive as a species. 

 

6 hours ago, RR2020 said:

Age ranges with "no pre-existing condition".

I'm a bit curious; why do you want to exclude those with pre-existing conditions? I have two of those for 20 and 30 years, respectively; without COVID, scooter accidents, etc., I expect to live a couple of decades more.  Should I get COVID, those two pre-existing conditions would probably spell the end for me.

While I can accept that, Thailand has a serious dilemma here. You either don't want tourism or you take the risk. Not to flog a dead horse, but, going forward, people are not going to vaccinate and then quarantine for two weeks just to spend one day in Thailand. They will go to a hundred other places. Early days, for sure, and can understand the trepidation, but...

Edited December 31, 20205 yr by daveAustin

A post with overly derogatory comments has been removed.

 

Some off topic posts, troll posts and the replies have been removed.

Australia is saying the same thing. Vaccination won't exempt you from quarantine. 

 

Not just a Thai thing. 

2 hours ago, daveAustin said:

While I can accept that, Thailand has a serious dilemma here. You either don't want tourism or you take the risk. Not to flog a dead horse, but, going forward, people are not going to vaccinate and then quarantine for two weeks just to spend one day in Thailand. They will go to a hundred other places. Early days, for sure, and can understand the trepidation, but...

Many, many countries are doing just like Thailand.  No easy answers here.  And no, there aren't a hundred others places to easily visit.  Not now.

On 12/31/2020 at 12:01 AM, ukrules said:

 

So when you've been vaccinated with two shots and a couple of months later decide to take a trip do you think quarantine is still applicable?

 

Lets assume massive percentages of many populations will be vaccinated before about September 2021 (they will be), come winter 2021 these people shouldn't need to quarantine and I'm going to suggest that they won't need to, all the rules will be very different by then.

 

In the first 3 quarters of 2021 I also suspect Thailand will receive almost zero tourists, so few that they will barely count.

In the uk evidently they will be issuing a card when you get your vaccinations,so if thailand are going to insist on quaraǹtine despite this it will be the final nail in the tourism industry.