Scottish nationalists set for record majority, boosting independence push

 

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, attends the First Minister's Questions at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh, Scotland, Britain January 13, 2021, where she delivered an update on the coronavirus pandemic. Andy Buchanan/Pool via REUTERS

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Scottish nationalists are on course to win a record majority in elections for Scotland’s devolved parliament that would start a new push for independence, an opinion poll published on Thursday showed.

 

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and head of the pro-independence Scottish National Party, will claim a mandate for another independence referendum if her party performs strongly in the elections scheduled for May 6.

 

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who would have to agree to a new referendum, has said there is no need for a new vote after independence was rejected by Scottish voters in 2014.

 

The SNP is expected to win 71 of 129 seats in the Scottish parliament, eight seats more than it won in the last election in 2016, according to the poll carried out by Savanta ComRes and published in The Scotsman newspaper.

 

The only other time the SNP has won a majority was in 2011 when it won 69 seats under former leader Alex Salmond.

 

If Scotland voted for independence it would mean the United Kingdom would lose about a third of its landmass and almost a tenth of its population - just as the world’s sixth-biggest economy is grappling with the impact of Brexit.

 

Johnson’s Conservative Party may lose 14 seats in the Scottish parliament and the opposition Labour Party may lose three, the poll found, leaving the Conservatives with 17 seats and the Labour Party with 21.

 

Scots voted 55-45% against independence in a referendum in 2014, but Brexit and the British government’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis have bolstered support for the SNP, with most polls showing a majority now favour breaking away.

 

The Savanta ComRes poll found 57% of people would vote for Scottish independence in a new referendum, close to a record high.

 

The poll was based on responses from 1,016 people in Scotland between Jan. 8 and 13.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-01-14

 

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13 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

If Scotland voted for independence it would mean the United Kingdom would lose about a third of its landmass and almost a tenth of its population - just as the world’s sixth-biggest economy is grappling with the impact of Brexit.

Nicola and Scotland have my full unconditional support, go for it, good luck wish you the best.... and that would be the final nail in BJ's  coffin  555

if the early promises of Brexit had been kept

Quote

 Davis promising in January 2017 that the Tories would negotiate “comprehensive” free trade and customs agreements “that will deliver the exact same benefits as we have” as members of the EU

 

the UK would have the benefits of the EFTA then we would probably not be there

 

 

all this stems from a narrow/nationalist vision of sovereignty

Quote

If “sovereignty” means a state’s formal legal authority to make its own laws, adjudicated by its own courts, then the UK has gained some more sovereignty.

 

Quote

If “sovereignty” means the effective power of a state to control its own destiny and advance its national interests, then the UK has lost sovereignty.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/14/uk-eu-rivalry-brexit

as soon as the UK refuses the play by the same rules as other single market nations, it's out of the single market.

 

Then the problems begin: even with a theoretical "zero-tariffs, zero-quotas" system, red tape and rules of origin make it very very hard for Scott to trade with the EU. So even scottish fishermen who used to believe brexit promises and vote for the tories discover they have been fooled.

 

 

 

.. and of course there's the problem of England brutally imposing its will on a nation that did not want to leave the European Union in the first place.

 

 

.

Thank you Boris and Brexiteers. Go Scotland! 

16 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who would have to agree to a new referendum

how can he refuse, what goes around comes around, the UK wanted to leave the EU and the EU let them, now Scotland wants to leave the UK and,  based on the UK democracy free willing, free movement,  the UK has to let them go, fair is fair    555

10 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

how can he refuse, what goes around comes around, the UK wanted to leave the EU and the EU let them, now Scotland wants to leave the UK and,  based on the UK democracy free willing, free movement,  the UK has to let them go, fair is fair

The whole brexit referendum compelling argument was the right to self-determination (and freedom from "foreign shackles").

 

 

This fits quite well the right of Scots to determine their future. And I find Brexiteers a bit hypocritical to deny this right to the Scots, obviously the situation is completely different since they had their Independence referendum 6 years ago.

 

By then, the threat was "if you vote for independence you'll be out of the EU". Now it's the very opposite: independence will allow the closer relations to the EU that Brexit has denied.

 

Very probably not to become a EU member or use the € right away, but it would be quite quick to rejoin the European Free Trade Association nations and access the single market

Well they can get their MPs out of Westminster while they are at it. Now they have their own Parliament <deleted> are they still doing in Westminster anyway? Talk about having your cake and eating it.

 

'We want independence but want back in the EU where we will do what we are told'. Anybody else spot that oxymoron?

 

They HAD a referendum and it was defeated. Are we now in a world where we keep having referenda until the 'right' result is achieved? 

3 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

They HAD a referendum and it was defeated. Are we now in a world where we keep having referenda until the 'right' result is achieved? 

In case you do not know how democracy works, yes we are

 

We are in a world where the people are regularly called to evaluate their leaders and change them if they so wish. 

 

Surprisingly

8 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

Well they can get their MPs out of Westminster while they are at it. Now they have their own Parliament <deleted> are they still doing in Westminster anyway? Talk about having your cake and eating it.

 

'We want independence but want back in the EU where we will do what we are told'. Anybody else spot that oxymoron?

 

They HAD a referendum and it was defeated. Are we now in a world where we keep having referenda until the 'right' result is achieved? 

They had a referendum when the UK was in the EU with no prospect of it changing. It's the Brexiters who argue that being free of the EU means a huge change. 

 And while Brexiters may believe the nonsense that the UK was under the thumb of the EU, most Scots know better. And even if, for the sake of argument, the Scots wanted to be under the thumb of the EU rather than the UK, why shouldn't they have that choice?

On the other hand, from an economic point of view, if leaving the EU is harmful to the UK, how much more so would it be for Scotland? The UK is by far Scotland's major trading partner. So the Scots should expect at least more decline in economic growth from it's break from the UK  than will be experienced by the UK in its break with the EU. 

15 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

Well they can get their MPs out of Westminster while they are at it.

No, only after it, not while at it. 

 

15 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

'We want independence but want back in the EU where we will do what we are told'. Anybody else spot that oxymoron?

Nope. 

 

15 minutes ago, Psimbo said:

They HAD a referendum and it was defeated. Are we now in a world where we keep having referenda until the 'right' result is achieved? 

I’m afraid that’s how democracy works in case you haven’t noticed.

24 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

In case you do not know how democracy works, yes we are

 

We are in a world where the people are regularly called to evaluate their leaders and change them if they so wish. 

 

Surprisingly

Yes, but not the same people voting in an agreed SNP  'once in a generation' vote a few years later as they didn't get what they wanted the first time !

 

What next , SNP lose and vote 3, 4,5,6, etc. Where does it end when the losers consistently get to re-run things when they lose ? 

 

If they want a new vote to leave, fine, another 15 years for me is a generation, then have a new one. But the wee woman wants to be canonised and get Mel Gibson make a movie about her freeing Scotland it appears. The woman is a one trick poney.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just allow the English to vote as well next time, the Scots will get their independence then.  Many of us are sick of their constant carping.  The problem would be when they find out that the English voted for them to go, but the Scots voted for themselves to stay.

Boris has spoken on this matter already.

 

There will be no new referendum for 30 years, if the population in 2050 want to leave then so be it.

2 hours ago, Mavideol said:

how can he refuse, what goes around comes around, the UK wanted to leave the EU and the EU let them, now Scotland wants to leave the UK and,  based on the UK democracy free willing, free movement,  the UK has to let them go, fair is fair    555

"How can he refuse"

Easy, he just says no like he always has done.

 

"what goes around comes around, the UK wanted to leave the EU and the EU let them, now Scotland wants to leave the UK"

Scotland doesn't have a choice, Westminster is sovereign. Scotland was never in the EU it was the UK that was in the EU, many Scots voted to leave the EU too which is totally inconsequential any way as being in the UK, where 1 goes, we all go.

 

"the UK has to let them go, fair is fair"

The UK cannot have a couple of million of its citizens dictating to 70 million. 

The SNP are too full of their own importance, their parliament is Westminster too, try to think of Holyrood as the admin side of Westminster and you will not go far wrong.????

 

 

 

 

The Scotch can get in line behind Serbia and over a dozen other countries to join the EU..They are not wanted. And what currency are the going to use? The poond? 555. The corrupt scotch goverment are in dissaray so use swivel eyed nationlism as a distraction

Richard Leonard quits as leader of the Scottish branch of the UK Labour Party - I wonder if this morning's polling had an effect? 

 

BBC News - Richard Leonard quits as Scottish Labour leader
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55666234

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

On the other hand, from an economic point of view, if leaving the EU is harmful to the UK, how much more so would it be for Scotland? The UK is by far Scotland's major trading partner. So the Scots should expect at least more decline in economic growth from it's break from the UK  than will be experienced by the UK in its break with the EU. 

It's a huge question indeed.

 

Now it's up to them to decide, and there is hope that there will be less lies that with the referendum on Brexit.

 

In the case of Brexit the majority of voters would not leave knowing what the know now.... As for me i'm not against Brexit, but it turns out the process was hijacked by national-populists and does not represent what the referendum asked for : 48% against leaving and 10-20% for the hard brexit we have now. It turns out a few extremists and opportunist politicians ended up imposing their will on NI (who didn't want to leave), Scottland (who didn't want to leave), Gibraltar ... and even the majority of English citizen who in fact called for a soft brexit.

 

so I hope the Scots would be very prudent not to lock themselves in some kind of extremist "Scotexit" that would be as catastrophic as Brexit is now

 

 

.

3 hours ago, lungbing said:

Just allow the English to vote as well next time, the Scots will get their independence then.  Many of us are sick of their constant carping.  The problem would be when they find out that the English voted for them to go, but the Scots voted for themselves to stay.

a majority of the English Tory electorate agrees with you.

 

For Labour, it's much more complicated, because Labour used to get his majority in the Commons with PM from Scotland. So Labour has to be against independence, because otherwise the UK would become "tory-country" for decades, as I understand it.

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

Boris has spoken on this matter already.

The pope might too "has spoken on this matter already" who cares? Democracy means the people decide,

 

Even if the UK is a national-populist government now, it is not a Boris-o-cracy

2 hours ago, Nout said:

The Scotch can get in line behind Serbia and over a dozen other countries to join the EU..They are not wanted. 

As I said before, they can join the European Free Trade Association very quickly and enjoy the benefits of the single market, along with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

 

They would be pretty much in the middle of it

 

Scotland ain't no Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland. 

21 minutes ago, Nout said:

Scotland ain't no Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland. 

very perceptive! Anything else?

1 hour ago, Hi from France said:

As I said before, they can join the European Free Trade Association very quickly and enjoy the benefits of the single market, along with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

 

They would be pretty much in the middle of it

 

It's a fair point, but I still don't see how Scotland can come out ahead economically if it divorces itself from the UK.  In 2018 Scottish GDP was 165 billion.

Scotland's exports 2018 | Scottish Parliament

52 billion of that went to the UK.

Scotland's exports 2018 | Scottish Parliament

That's 31.5% of Scottish GDP

 

The total value of UK exports was 298 billion in 2018

• UK exports of goods and services to EU 1999-2019 | Statista

The total GDP was 2.14 trillion

• UK: GDP in pounds 2000-2018 | Statista

That's about 14%. So a lot less.

 

I did wonder how much of Scottish goods sold to firms in the rest of the UK end up being exported. But according to the page linked to, probably not a lot.

About Export Statistics Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

It's a fair point, but I still don't see how Scotland can come out ahead economically if it divorces itself from the UK.  In 2018 Scottish GDP was 165 billion.

Scotland's exports 2018 | Scottish Parliament

52 billion of that went to the UK.

Scotland's exports 2018 | Scottish Parliament

That's 31.5% of Scottish GDP

 

The total value of UK exports was 298 billion in 2018

• UK exports of goods and services to EU 1999-2019 | Statista

The total GDP was 2.14 trillion

• UK: GDP in pounds 2000-2018 | Statista

That's about 14%. So a lot less.

 

I did wonder how much of Scottish goods sold to firms in the rest of the UK end up being exported. But according to the page linked to, probably not a lot.

About Export Statistics Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

I do not know this issue very well, but I suppose there's much more to it: how do you split the national debt, how would separate NHS work, how retirement pensions would work across a border, currency issues ...

 

Rejoining the EU as a full member is not the hardest issue of Scottish independence, by far. 

 

Now, I still feel the Scots have been completely disregarded by the English nationalists and, as a consequence, I understand why most of them desire to "take back control" and make their own decisions. 

 

. 

Wouldn't it be fun if Scotland joins the EEA and Schengen and UK people need a visa to go there for more than 3 months.....

17 minutes ago, tebee said:

Wouldn't it be fun if Scotland joins the EEA and Schengen and UK people need a visa to go there for more than 3 months.....

Getting such a visa would involve filling out a piece of paper or web form and having it rubber stamped.

 

Of course the same would apply the other way around.

 

It will never happen of course.

3 hours ago, Hi from France said:

Now, I still feel the Scots have been completely disregarded by the English nationalists and, as a consequence, I understand why most of them desire to "take back control" and make their own decisions. 

That's rich, when you consider that the Scottish Nationalists don't take a blind bit of notice of what the English may say or feel, and when asked invariably respond they it is non of their business!

 

Mind you, personally, I just wish they would get on with it, then we wouldn't have to listen to that awful fellow Ian Blackford banging on and on at Westminster, confirming why "the whinging Jock" is such a prevalent stereotype!

12 hours ago, Hi from France said:

In case you do not know how democracy works, yes we are

 

We are in a world where the people are regularly called to evaluate their leaders and change them if they so wish. 

 

Surprisingly

 

So, if there is another vote and Scotland votes to leave the union it is not binding in any way because we can keep having referendums until they change their mind again.

 

Yea.....sounds about right.

8 hours ago, Hi from France said:

It's a huge question indeed.

 

Now it's up to them to decide, and there is hope that there will be less lies that with the referendum on Brexit.

 

In the case of Brexit the majority of voters would not leave knowing what the know now.... As for me i'm not against Brexit, but it turns out the process was hijacked by national-populists and does not represent what the referendum asked for : 48% against leaving and 10-20% for the hard brexit we have now. It turns out a few extremists and opportunist politicians ended up imposing their will on NI (who didn't want to leave), Scottland (who didn't want to leave), Gibraltar ... and even the majority of English citizen who in fact called for a soft brexit.

 

so I hope the Scots would be very prudent not to lock themselves in some kind of extremist "Scotexit" that would be as catastrophic as Brexit is now

 

 

.

 

If the UK government does not figure out how to let Scotland remain in the Common Market while being in the UK, then I can only see positions hardening towards Scotland's exit of the UK.   If the UK government does figure a way for Scotland to remain in the Common Market (which would require a border between England and Scotland) -- then it will likely lead to long term dissolution of the United Kingdom.  Simply put, the hard Brexit has basically (and Gibraltar and Northern Ireland remaining in the Common Market) has basically pretty well guaranteed the dissolution of the UK... it is just a matter of time (IMHO).  If the UK was still in the Common Market - Scottish Independence would have been defeated for at least a generation - if not more.