The Future for Travellers?

[Salerno]

9 minutes ago, millymoopoo said:

... a healthy economy and populace, in no small part, as a result of socialist governments prioritising the health of it's citizenry over the economy.

 

Not so sure it should be politicised in such a way.

 

The initial declaration of it being a pandemic (while World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus condemned the push to declare a pandemic) and the subsequent lock down of the Australian borders was key to how Australia has coped with the situation along with politicians mainly getting out of the way and letting the experts dictate actions at the weekly meetings of State and Territories IMO. Sure, there's been sniping creeping back in in the past few months and difference of opinions have always been aired but it was good to see all parties working together for a change regardless of party.

[gearbox]

On 1/25/2021 at 1:18 AM, VBF said:

But this thread is about travellers, not people currently in Thailand.

 

I'm in UK, longing to go to Thailand again - i have one problem with the vaccine - I can't get it today and need to wait my turn!

The more a country vaccinates its people, and the more evidence (hopefully) emerges to show vaccinations assist in at least  reducing transmission, the sooner countries will start to relax their restrictions.

Personally, i would love a Covid vaccine stamp to be added to all my other vaccines in my yellow book, alongside Yellow Fever, Polio, Smallpox, Tetanus etc etc

If that helped me to travel, what's not to like?

 

I don't think Thailand will open the borders for vaccinated travellers any time soon. The truth about the vaccine efficiencies would be much more clearer in a couple of months when lots of people are vaccinated. I'm reading today in the news that in Germany the AZ vaccine is only 8% efficient for people above 65...AZ of course denies this.

Let's hope all the vaccines have the percentages right in a couple of months and we can travel again without quarantines. Today is day 14 of my ASQ and that's my third and hopefully final 14 days  Covid quarantine!

[Captain Monday]

The future is the IATA health passport Application.

Tony Fernandes and Akbar Al Baker were on one of the news programs recently

one thing they agree on is international cooperation/coodination is worst they have ever seen compared to previous aviation crises, going nowhere fast.

 

[CygnusX1]

2 hours ago, millymoopoo said:

As a comparison to all the other states NSWs suppression policy (specific area lock down) has not worked all that well with 80% of all outbreaks within the country since the initial lockdown occurring in NSW

You should note that these outbreaks have originated in hotel quarantine, and NSW has down the lion’s share of hotel quarantine, accepting many travellers bound for other states, especially for Victoria in the months that state was accepting no overseas arrivals at all.

[KhaoYai]

7 hours ago, Mike E said:

So, when you say that you will need proof of vaccination, does that mean you will need proof of 'current' vaccination and that you are in favor of requiring people to be vaccinated on a yearly, (or more often) basis in order to travel?

I would say that's a given. It would be pointless for a country or company to require vaccination just once if the efficacy turns out to be for a year or so.  This is new territory, the virus is moving fast but the scientists are too. It may take some time to predict an average efficacy term but I also believe they are actively searching for other types of vaccine. It is entirely possible that other, longer lasting vaccines may come along.  Remember, just 10 monhs ago we had no vaccinesto fight Covid 19 at all.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

9 hours ago, mr mr said:

actually. covid-19 has infected .01 percent of the human population. 

I note your figures have already been challenged but in any case, how does that matter?  I'm not concerned with percentages, I'm concerned if even one person dies unnecessarily.  Countries and companies are already forming their responses no matter what the percentages are.

 

But, can I remind you that this thread is about the future of travel now that we are in the 'Covid Era'.

[KhaoYai]

21 hours ago, Phulublub said:

It is NOT just about mortality.

It certainly isn't. I'm not going to quote figures, that just invites conspiracy theorists to deny them.  The facts are that there have been millions of deaths, millions of very sick people and, certainly in my homeland, a hell of a lot of people suffering from 'Long Covid' to varying degrees.  99.9% of the world's governments take this seriously, so seriously that they are prepared to shut down large sections of their economies and place severe restrictions on their people.

 

Fortunately for the world's SANE population, the conspiracy theorists bleatings have been ignored by those who make policy - and long shall that remain so.

 

I believe that Covid 19 is the most serious virus the world has ever seen and its likely to be with us for a long time - hence the whole purpose of this thread - to discuss what the future of travel will be considering the responses so far.  Restrictions will vary, some may find them tough and at the moment some of them make travel very expensive but things will settle, more vaccines will come along and restrictions will ease.  However, it may be a very long time until travel returns to how it was pre Covid - if ever.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Hanaguma]

30 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

 

 

I believe that Covid 19 is the most serious virus the world has ever seen and its likely to be with us for a long time - hence the whole purpose of this thread - to discuss what the future of travel will be considering the responses so far.  Restrictions will vary, some may find them tough and at the moment some of them make travel very expensive but things will settle, more vaccines will come along and restrictions will ease.  However, it may be a very long time until travel returns to how it was pre Covid - if ever.

Most serious virus? Really? Might want to check out the Spanish Flu. Killed the modern equivalent of 200 MILLION people, most of whom were otherwise healthy. Compared to that, Covid has killed 2 million mostly sick individuals. By comparison, Covid is an afterthought.  

[KhaoYai]

33 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Most serious virus? Really? Might want to check out the Spanish Flu. Killed the modern equivalent of 200 MILLION people, most of whom were otherwise healthy. Compared to that, Covid has killed 2 million mostly sick individuals. By comparison, Covid is an afterthought.  

Spanish flu was over 100 years ago and I'm fully aware of the numbers involved.  However, the world was a different place then - there was very little in the way of treatment and no effective vaccine until many years later. If the Spanish Flu was here today, it may not be the same animal it was during the pandemic of 1918.

 

But, I'll modify my statement if it helps - I believe that Covid 19 is the most serious virus of the modern era.

 

One point - and I believe its a significant one - I wish people would stop making statements like the one you did above 'Covid has killed 2 million mostly sick individuals.' Such statements are very misleading - my neighbour was an old man who no doubt would have been classed as being sick. However, I don't think he was in danger of dying any time soon from any of his ailments. He died when he contracted Covid 19.

 

In any case, such statements seem to be saying that people with pre-existing conditions are insignificant and should be discounted.

 

I have terminal cancer but I'm well and most likely have a good few years left yet. If I got Covid (again) and died would you just say " he was sick anyway, he doesn't matter"?

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Joinaman]

23 hours ago, Nout said:

You can't eat  or drink with a mask on!!

 Your right

but you can catch the virus with a mask off !

but that’s how silly it getting.  No matter what restrictions, what care you take, there are times and places where you will need to remove your mask, which while minimising the risk, still leaves you wide open to the virus

they have restrictions, like only 6 people together, and it’s safe, but if 7, it’s dangerous ?  Does the virus know that ?

while having the vaccine may help, it may also make us complacent, thinking we cannot catch the virus, that we are immune for ever, and that we cannot spread the infection .

so many unknown yet, will be a long time before we know the true facts about the vaccines and the virus, and maybe many many years  before we get some sort of immunity from it, and like the flu, we will have to accept a certain amount of deaths each year
 

[GinBoy2]

7 hours ago, gearbox said:

 

I don't think Thailand will open the borders for vaccinated travellers any time soon. The truth about the vaccine efficiencies would be much more clearer in a couple of months when lots of people are vaccinated. I'm reading today in the news that in Germany the AZ vaccine is only 8% efficient for people above 65...AZ of course denies this.

Let's hope all the vaccines have the percentages right in a couple of months and we can travel again without quarantines. Today is day 14 of my ASQ and that's my third and hopefully final 14 days  Covid quarantine!

Well there is one critical thing we just know yet.

 

You may be vaccinated, but what the scientists don't know yet is whether if you are exposed to the virus, you won't get sick but can still then transmit it to someone who isn't vaccinated.

 

The Chinese have a lot to answer for this freakin nightmare

[Hanaguma]

2 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

Spanish flu was over 100 years ago and I'm fully aware of the numbers involved.  However, the world was a different place then - there was very little in the way of treatment and no effective vaccine until many years later. If the Spanish Flu was here today, it may not be the same animal it was during the pandemic of 1918.

 

But, I'll modify my statement if it helps - I believe that Covid 19 is the most serious virus of the modern era.

 

One point - and I believe its a significant one - I wish people would stop making statements like the one you did above 'Covid has killed 2 million mostly sick individuals.' Such statements are very misleading - my neighbour was an old man who no doubt would have been classed as being sick. However, I don't think he was in danger of dying any time soon from any of his ailments. He died when he contracted Covid 19.

 

In any case, such statements seem to be saying that people with pre-existing conditions are insignificant and should be discounted.

 

I have terminal cancer but I'm well and most likely have a good few years left yet. If I got Covid (again) and died would you just say " he was sick anyway, he doesn't matter"?

First of all, my sympathy for your condition and hope for many years of fun and forum fights.

 

Second, my description of who is dying from covid was accurate, not misleading. For example, where I am (Japan), less than 100 people under the age of 60 have died from Covid.  In Canada, something like 70% were in nursing homes. In the US, most had more than one underlying condition.  So for people who are not in those risk categories, there is little to fear. For people at risk, they should take precautions.  Not discounting the victims, just being pragmatic.  Social and economic policy need to be based on facts, not fear or emotion. 

[KhaoYai]

30 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

So for people who are not in those risk categories, there is little to fear.

But we are not talking about fear. Simply segregating the catergories of people that have died implies that some matter more than others - if not, why segregate?  What is the purpose of saying that people had underlying health conditions or were in a certain age bracket?  All lives have the same value in my book.

 

You may be interested to know that the ages and types of people affected/dying seems to be changing with the new variants.

 

The numbers may be low where you are but I can assure you that things look very different here in the UK with over 100,000 deaths.

 

Anyway, we are getting off topic so I'll leave it at that.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

39 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

So for people who are not in those risk categories, there is little to fear. For people at risk, they should take precautions. 

A further point.  Whilst I accept that younger people are less likely to get very ill or die from Covid 19 (at the moment), I am sure you will accept that they form the largest groups in the A Symptomatic category?  They are more likely to move around and therefore come into contact with other people.  So it could be said that the people you say have little to fear are actually the most dangerous animal.

 

Thankfully, I don't think travel restrictions will discriminate between categories of risk - they will apply to all equally.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Phulublub]

46 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

First of all, my sympathy for your condition and hope for many years of fun and forum fights.

 

Second, my description of who is dying from covid was accurate, not misleading. For example, where I am (Japan), less than 100 people under the age of 60 have died from Covid.  In Canada, something like 70% were in nursing homes. In the US, most had more than one underlying condition.  So for people who are not in those risk categories, there is little to fear. For people at risk, they should take precautions.  Not discounting the victims, just being pragmatic.  Social and economic policy need to be based on facts, not fear or emotion. 

Here's a thing for you to consider.... in the UK the health system is close to capacity with huge numbers of hospital beds taken up by those who are so ill they need medical care.  Most will, eventually recover.  But for now they are using beds, nurses, doctors....

 

You assert that for those not in risk categories there is little to fear.  But there should be.  If they carry on, blithely passing on the infection between themselves and to others both older, younger and more infirm, then the numbers of those who will need care will increase.  Even if they take precautions.  And then what happens?

 

Even if the health system can cope, there will be drastically reduced capacity for the usual illnesses that hospitals routinely diagnose and treat.  People who are not at risk from covid will have lifelong impairments or die as a direct consequence of this.

 

And then there is you.  Fit, healthy, no underlying conditions and able to carry on your life.  But you are involved in a serious car accident.  Or your wife/husband/children are.  And because ambulances are waiting hours to discharge covid patients into already overcrowded hospitals you die at the roadside.  Still not at risk?

 

PH

[Hanaguma]

Actually they aren't the most dangerous because they are spreading a (what is to most people) minor virus. Again, they cannot spread it to the vulnerable if the vulnerable are kept in lockdown.   I remember back when I was young the way measles and chicken pox were dealt with. If a kid got either one, his mom would be on the phone to all the other moms in the area, asking them if they wanted their kids to play with me so THEY could catch it too. Then of course be immune.  Same principle here.

[mr mr]

4 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I note your figures have already been challenged but in any case

 

do you note that i also admitted my fault ? 

[Phulublub]

6 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Actually they aren't the most dangerous because they are spreading a (what is to most people) minor virus. Again, they cannot spread it to the vulnerable if the vulnerable are kept in lockdown.   I remember back when I was young the way measles and chicken pox were dealt with. If a kid got either one, his mom would be on the phone to all the other moms in the area, asking them if they wanted their kids to play with me so THEY could catch it too. Then of course be immune.  Same principle here.

How many is "most"?  Japan is fortunate not  - yet at any rate - to nhave had any serious outbreak.  But I refer you to the UK again.  I have seen it said that it is estimated that about 12% of the UK population has or has had covid.  And the health system is near collapse. If double the numebr are now exposed,it will - not might - will implode if the same percentage need hospital care.  And we are now finding mutations that are more virulent, and also perhaps affecting lower age groups more. 

 

It is NOT just flu.

 

Also, we have no way of knowing how long immunity lasts.  It may be like chicken pox.  Or it may be like malaria which recurs with no further bite.  Or dengue, where a second dose if often more serious than the first and a third is often fatal.  We just do not yet know.

 

PH

[Lacessit]

IMO international travel will be limited by the more tortuous processes involved in moving through the border controls of every nation, especially the more paranoid. Then there is the cost as well. Many airlines have gone bust, the ones remaining have far less competition. AND they will no longer be able to pack in economy class passengers like sardines.

I'm predicting 2-3 years before "normal" services are resumed, and far fewer people will be flying due to the cost. The days of budget flights and airlines competing ferociously for customers are gone.

[KhaoYai]

10 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Actually they aren't the most dangerous because they are spreading a (what is to most people) minor virus.

You may not be familiar see much news from the UK in Japan but I can tell you that the situation is changing and changing quite quickly - because of the new variant it seems. Its not so long ago that the average age of those needing hospital admission with Covid was well over 70 and the majority were men. I heard a news report on the BBC this week that said the average age was now down to 61 and still mainly consisted of men.  There are also increasing numbers of younger people getting seriously ill.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

10 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I'm predicting 2-3 years before "normal" services are resumed, and far fewer people will be flying due to the cost. The days of budget flights and airlines competing ferociously for customers are gone.

As far as people not flying because of the cost - its looking like those of us in the UK are going to be hit with hotel quarantine very shortly.  The government were meeting to discuss the matter this afternoon. The only potential light at the end of the tunnel is that the proposals seem to have developed. There was talk earlier today that said the quarantine might depend on the country of departure.

 

It could be too early yet but I checked out my usual Manchester-Bangkok Etihad flight for my planned trip in April and £470 is much the same as last year.  I hope you're wrong about the days of budget flights being over - they certainly aren't yet and it has to be considered that airlines may have to offer keenly priced flights to tempt customers back once restrictions end.

Edited January 26, 2021 by KhaoYai

[KhaoYai]

10 hours ago, mr mr said:

 

do you note that i also admitted my fault ? 

Noted and thanked.

[cormanr7]

56 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

 

It could be too early yet but I checked out my usual Manchester-Bangkok Etihad flight for my planned trip in April and £470 is much the same as last year.  I hope you're wrong about the days of budget flights being over - they certainly aren't yet and it has to be considered that airlines may have to offer keenly priced flights to tempt customers back once restrictions end.

I also keep an eye on flight prices and schedules. Not that the schedules mean a lot; I guess that many of the flights shown on skyscanner and the like for the coming months will be cancelled/reduced. Predicting airfares has always been difficult. In the shorter term (which may be well over a year) I think many offers will be available as airlines desperately try to attract some custom. However at some point they will have to recoup the losses of the past year/early 2021 and/or emerge much smaller (this is already happening). Business travel -a major earner for legacy airlines - may be reduced. Other factors include oil price (not that much movement, expected to rise if economic activity picks up) and competition. Budget long-haul carriers have had a hard time with the demise of a.o. WOW (pre-COVID) and Norwegian LH. So there may be less competition. On the other hand, short haul budget carriers might take even larger market shares. Another factor is the quarantine requirement in many countries which make travel basically impractical unless you have an extremely urgent reason to go. The situation remains fluid with a few countries now having implemented/considering a complete air travel ban. This won't last forever but don't expect this to be reversed tomorrow or that restrictions will be dropped completely when a significant fraction of the population has been vaccinated (will happen in only a few countries anyway). The UK government warned yesterday that it is 'far too early to book a holiday in 2021'.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

Just spoke with a friend who use to live here but is now in Bali.  He said he could get a one way ticket very cheap before the pandemic.  Now?  One way is about $800!!!!  That's going to change travel a lot.

[KhaoYai]

There are so many factors that will affect future flight prices and I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen.

 

Personally, I have a more optimistic viewpoint on the subject.  Many airlines have huge fleets and thousands of staff - they will be faced with either downsizing and charging more for flights or trying to return to how they were.  Downsizing may sound easy but many, if not most airlines lease their aircraft - how will they deal with that?

 

Taking Thailand for example, the travel industry is huge and they are desperate to get it going again.  Its the same for many countries, they are just not geared up to change their travel industry to the more upmarket model that some commentators have proposed - that's just fanciful.  I really can't see that happening - there are already more upmarket destinations in the region.So there's likely to be a lot of pressure for regular priced flights etc. - basically a return to how things were pre-covid. 

 

At the moment, many of those that are travelling are visiting family, business etc. rather than the typical holidaymakers and in a lot of cases they have no choice but to pay increased fare prices.  However, that is not a normal pattern and there are thousands of aircraft parked up.  To return to any kind of normal airlines will have to take in to account of the other costs travellers face.  Some restrictions may remain in place for a few years - PCR tests for example. That item alone will add around £250 to the cost of the £470 flight I mentioned yesterday - a family with 2 teenagers could face an extra £1000 on their travel costs.

 

All these costs will impact people's decisions about travel.  If the industry hikes prices to try and cover the losses they incurred during the pandemic they will cook their own goose.  We can only guess what's going to happen with flight prices but my guess is that the major destinations, and I include Thailand in that group, will return to normal.

[VBF]

3 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

There are so many factors that will affect future flight prices and I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen.

 

Personally, I have a more optimistic viewpoint on the subject.  Many airlines have huge fleets and thousands of staff - they will be faced with either downsizing and charging more for flights or trying to return to how they were.  Downsizing may sound easy but many, if not most airlines lease their aircraft - how will they deal with that?

 

Taking Thailand for example, the travel industry is huge and they are desperate to get it going again.  Its the same for many countries, they are just not geared up to change their travel industry to the more upmarket model that some commentators have proposed - that's just fanciful.  I really can't see that happening - there are already more upmarket destinations in the region.So there's likely to be a lot of pressure for regular priced flights etc. - basically a return to how things were pre-covid. 

 

At the moment, many of those that are travelling are visiting family, business etc. rather than the typical holidaymakers and in a lot of cases they have no choice but to pay increased fare prices.  However, that is not a normal pattern and there are thousands of aircraft parked up.  To return to any kind of normal airlines will have to take in to account of the other costs travellers face.  Some restrictions may remain in place for a few years - PCR tests for example. That item alone will add around £250 to the cost of the £470 flight I mentioned yesterday - a family with 2 teenagers could face an extra £1000 on their travel costs.

 

All these costs will impact people's decisions about travel.  If the industry hikes prices to try and cover the losses they incurred during the pandemic they will cook their own goose.  We can only guess what's going to happen with flight prices but my guess is that the major destinations, and I include Thailand in that group, will return to normal.

I agree...especially once vaccines are proved to do their job and everybody has to prove they've been vaccinated.

After all if you've got a flight full of vaccinated people, who cares if 1 or 2 are potential carriers.

It's when they get on the ground that all the people they meet become vulnerable if not vaccinated. 

 

And to   @Lacessit who said "The days of budget flights and airlines competing ferociously for customers are gone." I disagree, again subject to vaccinations being proven effective.

[KhaoYai]

1 hour ago, VBF said:

And to   @Lacessit who said "The days of budget flights and airlines competing ferociously for customers are gone." I disagree, again subject to vaccinations being proven effective.

Yes and this is not me having a go at Lacesit but I regularly see doom and gloom merchants here on TV.  Some are serious and its their right to an opinion but others are simply trolls.

 

I seem to remember when the £ pound began dropping again following the brexit vote. We had 'experts' here stating quite confidently that the £1 would only buy 25 baht by now.  Yesterday I paid my 'dues' to the Mrs using Transferwise and got 41.15 - the best its been for a long time.

 

Its just not feasible for the travel industry to put prices up - its far to large to downsize, I really don't think it will happen.

Edited January 27, 2021 by KhaoYai