Optimism as number of new COVID-19 cases in Thailand falls for third consecutive day

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, polpott said:

Bangkok is the only other area with significant numbers of cases. Maybe it would be prudent to isolate and lockdown Bangkok?

Do some significant tests first and see would be the better option. They've already said they are no longer using the standard nasal swab pcr tests for mass testing due to cost and instead using the cheaper saliva tests. So go ahead, do a large scale random study, worth a shot no?

[DLock]

50 minutes ago, Snig27 said:

 

Have you put yourself forward as an expert to remedy the failure you’ve noted? Clearly you have both evidence and major qualifications. You could also offer your services to Australia and New Zealand as Thailand is using the same model. 

 

You are somewhat confused there Champ.

 

Thailand has almost nothing in common with Australia and New Zealand, except following the locking of borders...although foreigners can get into Thailand.

 

Australia is also doing widespread testing of 500,000 test per 1million people. Thailand is doing limited testing in limited areas of 17,000 per 1million people.

 

Australia has done 13millon tests on a population of 26million - 1 in 2 people have been tested. Thailand has done 1.2million tests on a population of 70million - almost 1 in 70 people.

 

Australia will start vaccination later this month. Thailand doesn't even know where their vaccines will come from yet.

 

Australia have done a good job, been transparent, have things under control and even 1 new case in a cause for concern. Thailand...not so much.

 

To even say Thailand is doing the same as Australia shows you limited knowledge and understanding of the problem.

 

Next.

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, Emdog said:

Are they running short of test kits? One reason positive tests might decline.

No !

They are just running out of Days until Chinese new Year when they said this thing would be put to bed

[Sharp]

600+  recovered and released!!! Amazing what the immune system can do without the need for a vaccine ????

[Cake Monster]

19 minutes ago, Sharp said:

600+  recovered and released!!! Amazing what the immune system can do without the need for a vaccine ????

Its probably more to do with under cooked Rice, raw cabbage and Fish heads as part of the Quarantine Menu every Day.

[BangkokReady]

49 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

That's what most of the politicians said at the onset "Nothing to worry about", and look where we are today.

 

Ipso-facto, we have to worry about everything, even more so if someone says "nothing to worry about"?

 

Killer logic there.

[BangkokReady]

39 minutes ago, Sharp said:

600+  recovered and released!!! Amazing what the immune system can do without the need for a vaccine ????

 

If only everyone were as young and healthy as these Burmese migrant workers.

[metisdead]

A post with a trolling image has been removed. 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Mama Noodle said:

Yeah thats the one ive been watching the last few weeks, and seems like one of the highest number of walk-in cases in a long time. 

 

113 people who are sick enough to have symptoms and report to the hospital, for a virus that that a large percentage are asymptomatic and dont even know they have it. 

 

Alot can be implied from that. 

Agree walkins are an important separate category but they are not just the very sick. Thailand uses  several criteria and promotes their public awareness. Walkins include:

 

-- People with significant symptoms looking for treatment.

-- People with mild symptoms concerned they have covid.

-- People with no symptoms who may have been exposed.

-- People who were alerted via the Thai and Maw Chana tracking systems.

- Other

 

The asymptomatic legend. Worldwide roughly 80% eventually develop symptoms. The high numbers you may see in the media are asymptomatic when tested.  Since the majority do develop symptoms, hospital screening is fairly efficient.

 

[Peter Denis]

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

...

The asymptomatic legend. Worldwide roughly 80% eventually develop symptoms. The high numbers you may see in the media are asymptomatic when tested.  Since the majority do develop symptoms, hospital screening is fairly efficient.

I thought the term for those that were tested positive when at moment of test not showing symptoms but developing these later, was pre-symptomatic.

And that the term asymptomatic was for those that tested positive without showing symptoms and not developing symptoms later on.  Which begs the question whether they are indeed infected (it is of course possible that they were infected earlier without even knowing or experiencing it, or that is is a case of 'false positive').

 

Do you have any figures on the ratio of asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic?  You seem to imply that the majority of those that tested positive without symptoms, were pre-symptomatic.

[dcnx]

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

95  were so-called ‘walk-ins’ discovered from people reporting to hospital.

This number is going up and it should be the one people are paying attention to.

 

There’s community spread happening somewhere, if not in multiple places.

 

Why are they not mass testing the areas of all the walk-ins?

[BangkokReady]

1 minute ago, dcnx said:

This number is going up

 

It goes up and down according to Richard Barrow's figures.

[dcnx]

1 hour ago, Sharp said:

600+  recovered and released!!! Amazing what the immune system can do without the need for a vaccine ????

Except that’s not how it works. 600+ recovered and released after receiving treatment and drug cocktails, or they didn’t have symptoms in the first place. Testing positive can land you in the hospital here.

 

Pick up a book or something.

[metisdead]

A post in which the quoted content had been altered has been removed:

 

16) You will not make changes to quoted material from other members posts, except for purposes of shortening the quoted post. This cannot be done in such a manner that it alters the context of the original post.

[rabas]

15 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

I thought the term for those that were tested positive when at moment of test not showing symptoms but developing these later, was pre-symptomatic.

And that the term asymptomatic was for those that tested positive without showing symptoms and not developing symptoms later on.  Which begs the question whether they are indeed infected (it is of course possible that they were infected earlier without even knowing or experiencing it, or that is is a case of 'false positive').

 

Do you have any figures on the ratio of asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic?  You seem to imply that the majority of those that tested positive without symptoms, were pre-symptomatic.

Pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic, and true asymptomatic are all used. Exact meaning can depend on context.

 

Studies on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases almost always mean truly asymptomatic cases, people who never develop symptoms. Asymptomatic 'when tested' is not very useful because it depends on when they were tested.

 

There was much confusion in the beginning but later studies show that rumoured large numbers of truly asymptomatic cases don't exist. Most estimates now suggest  around 17% - 20%.   https://jammi.utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.3138/jammi-2020-0030

 

The only point is that great unseen seas of asymptomatic cases are not driving pandemics here or elsewhere.

[RickBradford]

The sight of countries - not just Thailand - watching the number of positive tests day-by-day as though it were the football results, cheering the day they go down, locking down everything that moves if they go up, is very depressing to rational people.

 

This virus will never be eliminated (just as similar influenza viruses cannot be eliminated) and vaccines provide only partial and temporary protection (just as influenza vaccines do), we could be playing this 'Spot the Corona Virus' game for at least the next 30 years.

 

Somebody, somewhere, somewhen, has to call a halt to the mass hysteria and say: "We have done what we could, vaccinated the vulnerable and the scared, and now we accept we have to live with this thing because it ain't going away." 

 

I wonder which government it will be, and when they will finally come to accept this.

[polpott]

1 hour ago, RickBradford said:

Somebody, somewhere, somewhen, has to call a halt to the mass hysteria and say: "We have done what we could, vaccinated the vulnerable and the scared, and now we accept we have to live with this thing because it ain't going away." 

Over 2 million people have died in the last 12 months. I have lost 3 friends to it. My daughter and son in law are working on Covid wards in the UK. Tell them that its mass hysteria.

 

You may be right that we have to live with it and that we'll need the vaccine incorporating into the annual flu jab but until then we need to deal with it. The way forward is to vaccinate everyone and until then, contain the spread. This is what every government in the world is now doing because its the only way, sorry you can't see what everyone else can see.

[Blumpie]

Migrant worker quarantine camps.  I bet the conditions there are pleasant.  ????

[Blumpie]

8 hours ago, Sharp said:

600+  recovered and released!!! Amazing what the immune system can do without the need for a vaccine ????

They haven't necessarily recovered.  Long COVID is a real thing - I have a childhood friend who has it and her life is ruined right now.  It's been 2 months since she has had it and she is nearly requiring a walker.  She's 52 and was healthy.

[Blumpie]

The one thing that I can't wrap my head around is how on earth places like Indonesia, Thailand, India (!) have such relatively low rates.  Yes, they aren't testing as much but I swear the bodies would be piling up if they were hiding something.  

[dinsdale]

9 hours ago, DavisH said:

Most walk-ins are still in Samut Sakorn - showing just how widespread it is. If there was "community spread" across Bangkok, the numbers would be much higher. 

Ah! Are you under the impression that the walkins are migrant workers? Not so. Majority are Thai.

[dinsdale]

9 hours ago, Snig27 said:

 

Have you put yourself forward as an expert to remedy the failure you’ve noted? Clearly you have both evidence and major qualifications. You could also offer your services to Australia and New Zealand as Thailand is using the same model. 

1 person in Perth tested positive. They locked the whole joint down for 5 days. Tested around 12,000 a day. Yep you are correct Snig27. The similarities are plain as day.

[dinsdale]

8 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Do some significant tests first and see would be the better option. They've already said they are no longer using the standard nasal swab pcr tests for mass testing due to cost and instead using the cheaper saliva tests. So go ahead, do a large scale random study, worth a shot no?

They are using the 30 minute test.

[dinsdale]

7 hours ago, rabas said:

Agree walkins are an important separate category but they are not just the very sick. Thailand uses  several criteria and promotes their public awareness. Walkins include:

 

-- People with significant symptoms looking for treatment.

-- People with mild symptoms concerned they have covid.

-- People with no symptoms who may have been exposed.

-- People who were alerted via the Thai and Maw Chana tracking systems.

- Other

 

The asymptomatic legend. Worldwide roughly 80% eventually develop symptoms. The high numbers you may see in the media are asymptomatic when tested.  Since the majority do develop symptoms, hospital screening is fairly efficient.

 

You seem to be confused between asymptomatic and pre-symtomatic. 

[dinsdale]

48 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

The one thing that I can't wrap my head around is how on earth places like Indonesia, Thailand, India (!) have such relatively low rates.  Yes, they aren't testing as much but I swear the bodies would be piling up if they were hiding something.  

India: Almost 11,000,000. Indonesia: More than 1,000,000. I know they are large populations but it's still 12,000,000 people. 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

You seem to be confused between asymptomatic and pre-symtomatic. 

You don't need extra words for something simple. 

 

"Worldwide, roughly 80% of all cases eventually develop symptoms."

 

Thus screening works.

 

[Daithi85]

14 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

Its probably more to do with under cooked Rice, raw cabbage and Fish heads as part of the Quarantine Menu every Day.

Or the use of hydroxichloriquine which has been used from the start here. 

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Optimism as number of new COVID-19 cases in Thailand falls for third consecutive day

Wait for Pipat to start again.. 3 days of lower infections he'll want the borders opened again.

[FarFlungFalang]

12 hours ago, RickBradford said:

The sight of countries - not just Thailand - watching the number of positive tests day-by-day as though it were the football results, cheering the day they go down, locking down everything that moves if they go up, is very depressing to rational people.

 

This virus will never be eliminated (just as similar influenza viruses cannot be eliminated) and vaccines provide only partial and temporary protection (just as influenza vaccines do), we could be playing this 'Spot the Corona Virus' game for at least the next 30 years.

 

Somebody, somewhere, somewhen, has to call a halt to the mass hysteria and say: "We have done what we could, vaccinated the vulnerable and the scared, and now we accept we have to live with this thing because it ain't going away." 

 

I wonder which government it will be, and when they will finally come to accept this.

The only problem with that is if you're not scared sh!tless you're a covid denier or a scaremonger or a granny killer or a covidiot I could go on but as you say it gets tiresome. 

[FarFlungFalang]

9 hours ago, Blumpie said:

The one thing that I can't wrap my head around is how on earth places like Indonesia, Thailand, India (!) have such relatively low rates.  Yes, they aren't testing as much but I swear the bodies would be piling up if they were hiding something.  

Vitamin D is a possible difference that's getting a lot more attention.