Foreign tourists will start to return in fourth quarter boosting Thai economy, says Finance Minister

[Megasin1]

23 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Or they've been hit in the pocket so hard they are going to save funds to put back in the bank and forego a holiday this year.
Thailand thinks once the west has been inoculated everyone is going abroad on holiday?

I can't speak for everyone but certainly back here in the UK that is my plan, sun, a beach and g&t as soon as possible. Unfortunately Thailand does not figure in the equation for quite a few reasons and we are looking at end of August, early September as my 25 year old son is on the trip (young adults first doses in June).  You are also right though as the sales of Motorhomes (RVs) have been through the roof this year in the UK and I can't see many of those people roaming far for quite a few years as they adjust their holiday style. Personally speaking my kids have shifted to a more activity based holiday style where they are concentrating on wake boarding, surfing and cycling rather than the beach type holiday. The backpacker holiday is probably dead and gone as multiple destinations could be too complicated. I am only speaking from my point of view but with the exception of sexpats Thailand doesn't have that much to offer and the kids of the younger generation will be influenced by their parents. There will be huge changes to holiday demographics over the next decade and those countries that can adapt quickly to the changes will flourish. I have a daughter in Thailand but family response now is to fly her here to join family holidays and events rather than what was before. People aren't as bad off as you may think (financially), some are better off having saved commuter costs and the majority of people I know are desperate for a holiday, but they aren't looking at long haul.????. See yall on the sunny side.

[Big Yuley]

3 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Two more quarters to enjoy the bliss of an empty Thailand.

spoken like a true expat. lol

[sead]

Unfortunately a comet will crash onto earth before that. I know that

[digger70]

Foreign tourists will start to return in fourth quarter boosting Thai economy, says Finance Minister.   

 

What's wrong with all those Forecastings about Millions and millions of Tourists . 

Get them Of them Drugs so that they can think Straight.

[bwpage3]

This minister, as many others, hasn't got a clue what goes on in the world outside of Thailand.

Many countries have their own rules and regulations as far as traveling in an out. 

I was going to hop down to Aruba tomorrow for a few days until I found out that I would have to have a negative covid test before I would be allowed back into the USA.

Now, if the test was readily available in Aruba, the odd chance that I or someone in my family tested positive, we would be stuck from getting home. Even with a negative test before the flight, one can never tell what will happen. Even if the chance is small, I look at what is the worse that can happen?

Testing positive, unable to return. Have to face what ever quarantine rules, costs, etc. Aruba might have.

Do I want to take the risk on being stuck outside the US? Not worth the risk for me. Even if the risk is extremely unlikely.

People around the world have their own authorities and rules to deal with.

They are not going to jump on a plane and return Thai tourism to normal.

Ridiculous.

[bwpage3]

This minister, as many others, hasn't got a clue what goes on in the world outside of Thailand.

Many countries have their own rules and regulations as far as traveling in an out. 

I was going to hop down to Aruba tomorrow for a few days until I found out that I would have to have a negative covid test before I would be allowed back into the USA.

Now, if the test was readily available in Aruba, the odd chance that I or someone in my family tested positive, we would be stuck from getting home. Even with a negative test before the flight, one can never tell what will happen. Even if the chance is small, I look at what is the worse that can happen?

Testing positive, unable to return. Have to face what ever quarantine rules, costs, etc. Aruba might have.

Do I want to take the risk on being stuck outside the US? Not worth the risk for me. Even if the risk is extremely unlikely.

People around the world have their own authorities and rules to deal with.

They are not going to jump on a plane and return Thai tourism to normal.

Ridiculous.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

So why is the Vaccination which is a key driver not happening

Thailand is way behind the curve on this, and IMHO, it will be nearer to February 2022 before 50% of the Thai population are vaccinated. This will make Thailand a " No Go Zone " for not just Tourists, but for Foreign Governments to allow Citizens to travel to the Kingdom

Maybe the question is the policy for tourists returning from Thailand. Each country will decide whether to require testing, quarantine, etc. It may depend on whether Thailand is affected much by any of the existing or even new variants. The conditions for new variants look too possible in Burma, for example. Hopeless healthcare and thousands in crowded prisons.

[Boomer6969]

5 hours ago, ukrules said:

My target would be in 2022 after a mass vaccination rollout.

Same here, but I wouldn't dare giving any figure. While we might see the patient giving some vitals signs by the end of this year he will leave the recovery room only sometime next year and remain convalescent, at best, thereafter.

[Ty Hareways]

6 hours ago, ukrules said:

It's not going to happen, nobody's coming and they won't be ready for them anyway.

Any cancellation of quarantines will result in imported infections unless they only allow the vaccinated in.

My target would be in 2022 after a mass vaccination rollout.

They already know this as it's so obvious but probably don't want to announce it as it would be unpopular, so instead we get never ending list of broken promises as they play for time.

 

When the borders open fully covid is coming in, mass vaccinations or not. Many people think the virus will be completely eradicated and everything will be hunky dory again...they're in a dream world. However, i'm no expert so here's hoping i'm wrong!!

[Partenavia]

I suspect that their optimism is misplaced, European/UK visitors may not be willing to travel that far especially if having to transit. There is more chance Chinese tourists will return.

European/UK are more likely to venture within Europe or USA first. Travelling elsewhere will be problamatic, any uncertainty will not be accepted.

[Letseng]

Problem at present is that several EU countries upgraded Thailand to risk level 6. No chance to buy insurance cover. Unless infections go down, protests go quiet, this will be a problem for tourists.

[bendejo]

15 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's finance minister became the latest high profile figure to say that the vaccine rollout in the country and the anticipated return of foreign tourists in the fourth quarter will help to rescue the Thai economy.  [...]

He also said that the recently announced 1.9 trillion dollar US stimulus package would be good for Thai exports. 

There is another factor, concerning not just Thailand, but the economies of countries that expect the US and other industrialized countries to buy their exports.

NYT: ‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping

Currently in the US, and when I read this it made sense.  The price of good quality coconut milk from LOS has jumped 25%, and other things I would be buying at the Asian grocery markets are no longer there.

 

[ThailandRyan]

Family and friends in the US have scheduled vacations within the US confines for this year and the next.  Many have bought camping gear, travel trailers, and RV's so they can revisit the country they live in and enjoy a very large and beautiful Nation.  However, they would like to come and take 2 weeks to visit here, visit Vietnam, and then return back to the US, but with a quarantine in place and the chance of being infected here, even if they are vaccinated, and then spending weeks in a hospital here, they just will not risk it or waste the funds.  For myself to even return to the US for a visit is a jump through a myriad of hoops, not even speaking of trying to return here afterwards.  My view is it would be an extra month spent in quarantine not only here (2 weeks) but then self isolation and quarantine for 2 weeks in the US because I am not vaccinated as of yet.  So many unknowns at this point in time and is the stress of jumping through the hoops even healthy when all you want is a vacation to visit family, and then wish to return to your home here.  Prior to Covid it would have been a total of a 4 week's to return to the US visit, take care of personal business and then return here, happy and refreshed.  Anything but refreshing from what I am looking at.

[realfunster]

14 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Or they've been hit in the pocket so hard they are going to save funds to put back in the bank and forego a holiday this year.
Thailand thinks once the west has been inoculated everyone is going abroad on holiday?

This is an oft repeated statement and it does seem logical.

However, the reality is, although the west was initially hit hard in terms of job losses, in the US at least (and I would suspect most developed countries) the amount of personal disposable savings has increased massively for the middle classes & above since March 2020, as many are saving more money due to uncertainty and quite frankly, lack of opportunity to spend over the last 15 months !

It is anticipated a lavish consumer spending spree is imminent once something approaching normality is reached. In terms of whether this includes exuberant foreign holidays will depend on a number of factors, probably based around restrictions and ease of travel, rather than finances.

[khunpeer]

and anóther one who enjoys this moment in the limelight! ????

[Stargeezr]

I think that the Fall of 2022 will be the real start of return for many tourists.  I do believe that many Americans

who get their shots will be headed out of the USA, if they can, as so many are headed for their beaches,                                                                                                                    even for their Spring break this year, and many still go to Mexico  and where they can even though the covid virus,                                                                                              is still going strong in the US.     I will stay in Canada until I have seen that

the majority of Thais and expats are vaccinated.  Thanks for the early invites tho.   TAT.

Cheers.

Geezer

[AlfHuy]

22 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Please explain how....

Hor... Americans will rush to the travel agencies to book their long awaited trip to Patteja or that money could directly be send from the "Stimulus package agency to the ladies in Thighland"

[AlfHuy]

Won't happen this year. 3rd wave in full swing in many European countries, especially France and Germany.

If they go on holiday, it will be closer to home as Spain, Portugal, Greece.

[brianthainess]

How tickled I am.

[samtam]

14 hours ago, Partenavia said:

I suspect that their optimism is misplaced, European/UK visitors may not be willing to travel that far especially if having to transit. There is more chance Chinese tourists will return.

European/UK are more likely to venture within Europe or USA first. Travelling elsewhere will be problamatic, any uncertainty will not be accepted.

I have not seen any (meaningful) statistics on Chinese vaccination rates, (40.5m doses in February), which considering the size of the population, is low. There is apparently a pretty low rate of enthusiasm for the three vaccines Sinopharm, Sinovac and CanSino, because of low trial data analysis, so if being vaccinated is the key to travelling into Thailand, China is not going to provide the answer.

 

[herfiehandbag]

22 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Two more quarters to enjoy the bliss of an empty Thailand.

Unfortunately after two more quarters it will be a largely derelict Thailand!

[Pattaya Spotter]

41 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Unfortunately after two more quarters it will be a largely derelict Thailand!

The main international tourist areas are pretty much there now...if what I've seen in Pattaya and Phuket is anything to go by.

[adammike]

21 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

I can't speak for everyone but certainly back here in the UK that is my plan, sun, a beach and g&t as soon as possible. Unfortunately Thailand does not figure in the equation for quite a few reasons and we are looking at end of August, early September as my 25 year old son is on the trip (young adults first doses in June).  You are also right though as the sales of Motorhomes (RVs) have been through the roof this year in the UK and I can't see many of those people roaming far for quite a few years as they adjust their holiday style. Personally speaking my kids have shifted to a more activity based holiday style where they are concentrating on wake boarding, surfing and cycling rather than the beach type holiday. The backpacker holiday is probably dead and gone as multiple destinations could be too complicated. I am only speaking from my point of view but with the exception of sexpats Thailand doesn't have that much to offer and the kids of the younger generation will be influenced by their parents. There will be huge changes to holiday demographics over the next decade and those countries that can adapt quickly to the changes will flourish. I have a daughter in Thailand but family response now is to fly her here to join family holidays and events rather than what was before. People aren't as bad off as you may think (financially), some are better off having saved commuter costs and the majority of people I know are desperate for a holiday, but they aren't looking at long haul.????. See yall on the sunny side.

As always the devil is in the details.The UK government announced yesterday that the vaccine rollout for the under 50s or 40s will be suspended during april,there are supply issues,it may be a bump in the road but I wouldn't make any plans to travel untill you or your son's have a definite appointment for the jab.I was in Thailand in march when it and the rest of the world went into lockdown wouldn't want to do that again,with or without a jab I'm not going anywhere untill everything is functioning properly.

[herfiehandbag]

As so many have said, the key is quarantine. Take away that requirement and people will start to consider Thailand as a holiday destination.

Most will go along with having to be vaccinated, perhaps even a simple test before flying, but if you start imposing more restrictions, in particular hoops which have to be jumped through at embassies and consulates, people will just turn away. You can either sack quarantine and accept the risk or keep quarantine and accept no takers.

 

Waffling on about "fourth quarters" doesn't help either, by the time 5v grind out decisions your competitors will have taken the market.

[Knocker33]

The airlines also need to get all their planes and staff in the air again before any mass anythings happens