Just now, ThailandRyan said:

You are truly delusional.  Your trying to say only Pattaya and its tourist industry were closed as far as restrictions.  Tell that to the rest of Thailands folks and those of us who even here in BKK could not have a drink with dinner, go to the gym, or even enjoy New Years with Alcohol and live music.  Seriously, your in your own world it appears.

You're confusing a lockdown with restrictions. Please just Google the two terms rather than engage in a pointless argument.

20 hours ago, Parkender said:

Something doesn't add up. A total of 13,430 people in Thailand tested positive for Covid-19 between March 17 and April 18, yet 13,568 supposedly remain in hospital receiving treatment. Assuming that not everyone tested since March 17 is still receiving hospital treatment, I can only assume there are many unreported cases.

There are plenty of reports from different countries of people needing many months of treatment before being released from hospital.

 

Also, based on data from the UK:

 

"Nearly a third of people who have been in hospital suffering from Covid-19 are readmitted for further treatment within four months of being discharged, and one in eight of patients dies in the same period, doctors have found."

 

Almost third of UK Covid hospital patients readmitted within four months

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Yes they have exponential moments like the recent Songkran holiday.

As far as I'm aware, road accidents during Songkran this year have actually been slightly below the average daily number throughout the year. At least they were for the first several days, I haven't looked at the figures for the last couple of days.

 

In fact the Songkran figures are often pretty close to the regular daily total - as many people on here tend to point out every year.

2 hours ago, edwardandtubs said:

And you think that proves there was a lockdown? I was in Hua Hin and everyone was enjoying themselves on the beach and night market. Plenty of restaurants were open too. What you're describing is the decimation of Pattaya's tourist industry as a result of restrictions on tourists entering Thailand.

You didn't say Hua Hin, this is what you said  "There was no lockdown in Thailand during the second wave":

and you are wrong, end of story.

29 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You didn't say Hua Hin, this is what you said  "There was no lockdown in Thailand during the second wave":

and you are wrong, end of story.

Please post a link to the government lockdown order or any report of it. Prohibitions on the sale of alcohol and recommendations to avoid interprovincial travel are not the same as a lockdown. Please just Google lockdown and stop digging yourself into a hole.

Just now, edwardandtubs said:

Please post a link to the government lockdown order or any report of it. Prohibitions on the sale of alcohol and recommendations to avoid interprovincial travel are not the same as a lockdown. Please just Google lockdown and stop digging yourself into a hole.

Lockdown has a number of definitions. Thailand has had 2 lockdowns, get over it.

1 hour ago, polpott said:

Lockdown has a number of definitions. Thailand has had 2 lockdowns, get over it.

Well I was able to travel between Hua Hin and Bangkok over the new year, go shopping in markets and eat in restaurants. By what definition is that a lockdown?

Just now, edwardandtubs said:

Well I was able to travel between Hua Hin and Bangkok over the new year, go shopping in markets and eat in restaurants. By what definition is that a lockdown?

You live in Hua Hin? Say no more.

44 minutes ago, polpott said:

You live in Hua Hin? Say no more.

I went on holiday to Hua Hin and then came back to Bangkok. Neither place was "locked down". Maybe if you'd come out of your basement you would have seen that too.

Lockdowns can take many forms.

 

I was in Pattaya during the last wave. I could not leave Pattaya to go to Isaan without authorization. Shops closed early. Bars and other establishments were closed. Of course, no one could fly into Thailand without quarantine.

 

if you say that wasn’t a lockdown, then I guess by “lockdown” you mean people formally confined to home isolation, as in Wuhan last year.

 

So, we should be using the term “heavy restrictions “ to describe the Thai approach to containing the virus.

On 4/18/2021 at 12:24 PM, Bkk Brian said:

Do you see the pattern? Exponential growth does not stop because of a 3 day flatline

 

Thanks for the graph. The doubling time, Td ,500 to 1000 cases is 3 days. This can be used for the rate constant, k = ln 2/ Td. Then k = .693/3 = .231 And since the R0= e^kt = R0= 2. That is the overall R0 in Thailand, 2. The (t) in e^kt is the generation interval , coincidentally also 3 days. If anyone has the cases numbers related to the UK varient 

 Thong Lo cluster that shows the doubling time for April 1 to April 17 then that particular R0 can also be accuratly calculated.

28 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Thanks for the graph. The doubling time, Td ,500 to 1000 cases is 3 days. This can be used for the rate constant, k = ln 2/ Td. Then k = .693/3 = .231 And since the R0= e^kt = R0= 2. That is the overall R0 in Thailand, 2. The (t) in e^kt is the generation interval , coincidentally also 3 days. If anyone has the cases numbers related to the UK varient 

 Thong Lo cluster that shows the doubling time for April 1 to April 17 then that particular R0 can also be accuratly calculated.

And I just double checked this R0=2 independently: There were 26 new infections in Thailand April 1 and 1767 on April 17. So: 26(R0)^5.66 = 1767. Then 5.66(logR0)=log 67 . So log R0 = .322  and that means the R0 is 10^.322 = 2.09 viola! The exponent, 5.66 is from 17days/3days(generation interval)

2 hours ago, morrobay said:

Thanks for the graph. The doubling time, Td ,500 to 1000 cases is 3 days. This can be used for the rate constant, k = ln 2/ Td. Then k = .693/3 = .231 And since the R0= e^kt = R0= 2. That is the overall R0 in Thailand, 2. The (t) in e^kt is the generation interval , coincidentally also 3 days. If anyone has the cases numbers related to the UK varient 

 Thong Lo cluster that shows the doubling time for April 1 to April 17 then that particular R0 can also be accuratly calculated.

Except that the number of cases in Thailand has not doubled in the last 3 days.

2 hours ago, morrobay said:

And I just double checked this R0=2 independently: There were 26 new infections in Thailand April 1 and 1767 on April 17. So: 26(R0)^5.66 = 1767. Then 5.66(logR0)=log 67 . So log R0 = .322  and that means the R0 is 10^.322 = 2.09 viola! The exponent, 5.66 is from 17days/3days(generation interval)

Notice again that this R0 of 2 from R0 = e^kt , e^(.231)(3)) = e^.693 = 2  (3 replies up) for April 1 to 17 checked out in a completely different way above for same time period. 

On 4/18/2021 at 8:54 PM, Danderman123 said:

Covid-19 is mutating into a new form that attacks young people, similar to the Spanish Flu. Those with healthy immune systems may be at greater risk now.

Bunk. You should be ashamed. 

On 4/18/2021 at 5:08 PM, Antonymous said:

This is not the 18th day of the pandemic. 

1st wave: March 14 - December 14. 2nd wave: December 15 - March 21.

New pandemic (B117): March 22 continuing exponential growth, 27 days to April 18.

Numbers have always been there its just showing more now because of testing. Numbers were down in Singapore until they started testing the quarters where many migrant workers lived. Songkran travel is over so too late for lockdown now.?