Thailand reports 2,112 new coronavirus cases, 15 deaths

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000577

1,270 Bangkok slums may be Covid-19 time bombs

Slums, especially in Bangkok, could turn into Covid-19 time bombs that may spread unexpectedly if relevant departments do not control it in time.

That is a no-brainer, it is already going from household to household in those areas.  Huay Kwang is now growing cases.

[Danderman123]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

That is a no-brainer, it is already going from household to household in those areas.  Huay Kwang is now growing cases.

Yep, it's like putting out burning embers before they start a fire. Random sampling around Bangkok will find the hot spots, and they will be isolated until the numbers are reduced.

 

At this point, the positivity rate(s) obtained via random sampling is saying that the epidemic is not that bad. Of course, new data could change that. But, predictions can only be made based on data in hand.

 

Note to the Doomsayers: "India" is not data. The Indian authorities did not engage in contact tracing and testing to the extent that Thailand did. And there were no mass election rallies here to serve as superspreader events.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2021 by Danderman123

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Yep, it's like putting out burning embers before they start a fire. Random sampling around Bangkok will find the hot spots, and they will be isolated until the numbers are reduced.

 

At this point, the positivity rate(s) obtained via random sampling is saying that the epidemic is not that bad. Of course, new data could change that. But, predictions can only be made based on data in hand.

 

 

There is no random sampling going on, only pro active testing in already identified potential hotspots, how do they find those in the first place? By walk in hospital cases and contact tracing.

 

Thailand desperately needs mass random testing but its not getting any.

[Danderman123]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

There is no random sampling going on, only pro active testing in already identified potential hotspots, how do they find those in the first place? By walk in hospital cases and contact tracing.

 

Thailand desperately needs mass random testing but its not getting any.

Active testing is random sampling. The descriptions of testing clearly distinguish between cases found from contact tracing (persons under investigation), hospital walk-ins, and random sampling.

 

To claim that no random sampling is going on ignores all of this. Here is some data from The Pattaya News yesterday:

 

”In the last day, a total of 181 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 1034 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community. All are pending results. Additionally, another 1,135 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing.”

 

[Charles F Stuart]

On the question of vaccine being sourced through a private provider. Is it not the vaccine manufacturers who will only sell to Governments in case of the repercussions should there be any serious side effects, this would stop private individuals from suing the manufacturer?

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Yep, it's like putting out burning embers before they start a fire. Random sampling around Bangkok will find the hot spots, and they will be isolated until the numbers are reduced.

 

At this point, the positivity rate(s) obtained via random sampling is saying that the epidemic is not that bad. Of course, new data could change that. But, predictions can only be made based on data in hand.

 

Note to the Doomsayers: "India" is not data. The Indian authorities did not engage in contact tracing and testing to the extent that Thailand did. And there were no mass election rallies here to serve as superspreader events.

 

 

No just mass Songkran travel, same same as a Thai would say.

[ThailandRyan]

29 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

There is no random sampling going on, only pro active testing in already identified potential hotspots, how do they find those in the first place? By walk in hospital cases and contact tracing.

 

Thailand desperately needs mass random testing but its not getting any.

Why they are holding back is a true mystery. Saving money?, saving FACE for allowing what they did,or just truly believing they have it under control.

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Active testing is random sampling. The descriptions of testing clearly distinguish between cases found from contact tracing (persons under investigation), hospital walk-ins, and random sampling.

 

To claim that no random sampling is going on ignores all of this. Here is some data from The Pattaya News yesterday:

 

”In the last day, a total of 181 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 1034 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community. All are pending results. Additionally, another 1,135 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing.”

 

Going into an area and testing known associates is not random sampling and testing. Random means goin into someplace unknown and randomly sampling that population to see if it is there. Do you see the difference?

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

No just mass Songkran travel, same same as a Thai would say.

Export of infections during Songkran was not as bad as predicted. What was worse were the infected in Bangkok who didn’t leave their neighborhood.

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Going into an area and testing known associates is not random sampling and testing. Random means goin into someplace unknown and randomly sampling that population to see if it is there. Do you see the difference?

Testing known associates of the infected is called testing of “persons under investigation”, and is separately listed.

 

I laid out the three main categories of testing in a previous post.

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Why they are holding back is a true mystery. Saving money?, saving FACE for allowing what they did,or just truly believing they have it under control.

They are not holding back.  

[Danderman123]

I know everyone here is disdainful of the government, and considers them incompetent. But, the epidemic has not progressed as predicted. In fact, it is more or less following the path of the two prior waves.

 

The reality is that, compared to Western countries, Thailand has managed the epidemic well. 
 

But some here cannot wrap their heads around this concept, and have to invent conspiracy theories to explain the relatively low infection rates, again, compared with European countries.

 

 

[brewsterbudgen]

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I know everyone here is disdainful of the government, and considers them incompetent. But, the epidemic has not progressed as predicted. In fact, it is more or less following the path of the two prior waves.

 

The reality is that, compared to Western countries, Thailand has managed the epidemic well. 
 

But some here cannot wrap their heads around this concept, and have to invent conspiracy theories to explain the relatively low infection rates, again, compared with European countries.

 

 

 

It's been quite a relief that the much predicted post-Songkran explosion has not materialised; fingers crossed things can start opening up again soon.

[johnarth]

why has someone reported that a farang got a jab (probably by his wife) this comes from the general we should be at war with him

[Bkk Brian]

50 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Active testing is random sampling. The descriptions of testing clearly distinguish between cases found from contact tracing (persons under investigation), hospital walk-ins, and random sampling.

 

To claim that no random sampling is going on ignores all of this. Here is some data from The Pattaya News yesterday:

 

”In the last day, a total of 181 close contacts were tested from contact tracing, and 1034 people were tested in proactive testing when medical staff goes out into the community. All are pending results. Additionally, another 1,135 people were tested from Royal mobile testing vans and are also waiting for results as officials step up aggressive community testing.”

 

You should really sort out your definition of random testing, random testing is going out throughout Thailand and taking random samples of the community, be that in markets, in home, or where ever.

 

Thailand does not do random testing. It never has.  Thailand uses the target method. It tests an area only are the first cases have already been found and then labels it as target/pro active case finding. 

 

The reason it tests those areas is not because of random testing, it is because of a hospital walk in followed by contact tracing.

[Bkk Brian]

43 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Why they are holding back is a true mystery. Saving money?, saving FACE for allowing what they did,or just truly believing they have it under control.

We've been shouting about it for so long. I remember the samut sakhon outbreak and we were all then saying they need to go and check every single market in Bangkok to take random samples followed by the rest of the country.

 

I think its a money thing, they said as much before that they can't afford mass random testing, false economy of course

[Bkk Brian]

42 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

They are not holding back.  

Like I said they are holding back, its due to budget, always has been, no mass random testing ever happened in Thailand or ever likely to.

 

The spokesperson, and now familiar frontman, of the Centre of Covid-19 Situation Administration Dr. Taweesin Visanuyothin has also revealed that “this is partly because Thailand has limited resources and can not afford to use the mass screening technique to uncover new infections.”

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/mass-testing-vs-contact-tracing-in-thailand

[Danderman123]

Some people here are not clear on how the authorities are testing.

 

They use hospital walk-ins to alert them to hotspots, and then use targeted random testing in that hospital repeatedly, while performing contact tracing to eliminate high probability infections.

 

But rather than elaborating all of this in detail, given that Thailand is effective in reducing these waves, and given they have limited resources, what other approach would you use to reduce infections, if vaccines are not available?

 

Hope is not a strategy.

 

[Danderman123]

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You should really sort out your definition of random testing, random testing is going out throughout Thailand and taking random samples of the community, be that in markets, in home, or where ever.

 

Thailand does not do random testing. It never has.  Thailand uses the target method. It tests an area only are the first cases have already been found and then labels it as target/pro active case finding. 

 

The reason it tests those areas is not because of random testing, it is because of a hospital walk in followed by contact tracing.

I am sorry for poorly defining the technique that Thai authorities are using to test for infections in hotspots.

 

Please feel free to call it targeted random testing, or whatever makes you happy.

 

But, please do not confuse it with testing of close contacts of the infection (persons under investigation), since that is not random testing.

 

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

hotspots, and then use targeted random testing

You can not have a targeted Random test.  A targeted test would be called contact tracing and follow-up for those known cases already.  Random is just that, they pop in out of the blue and test a random sample of people in different locales, streets, market areas etc.  That is Random sampling.  As I said you need to go back to school as your definition of random is not correct.

Edited May 6, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am sorry for poorly defining the technique that Thai authorities are using to test for infections in hotspots.

 

Please feel free to call it targeted random testing, or whatever makes you happy.

 

But, please do not confuse it with testing of close contacts of the infection (persons under investigation), since that is not random testing.

 

I'm in no confusion, they are both very different things. Random testing is not target testing as I've explained to you multiple times now, but I see you are finally seeing the light and discovering that they are finding areas to target for pro active testing through hospital walk ins, bravo, you'll get there eventually.