1 minute ago, DavisH said:

What percentage of the Australian adult population plan NOT to get vaccinated? Vaccine rollout is also very slow there. Is there much vaccine hesitancy?

Hesitancy is a problem mainly with AZ.  Supply issues with other vaccines. Terrible vaccine rollout for a country like Australia. I guess being covid free most of the time people haven't felt a sense of urgency. Now with another lockdown looks like people are understanding the importance of getting vaccinated. Time will tell.

22 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Thats what I've heard to and its also been fully approved by WHO

 

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/coronavirus-pandemic/uae-covid-vaccine-two-doses-of-sinopharms-jab-have-nearly-73-efficacy-shows-study

13 minutes ago, fleccer said:

I give you a suggestion: change the name of the media No longer Thai Visa but Covid Gazette, it seems more appropriate, since you don't talk about anything else than that

plenty of other forums if you venture to look.... just one of many....lol

many 

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The Case Fatality Rate is the ratio of deaths to positive cases. 

 

Your argument is that reducing positive cases somehow reduces the Case Fatality Rate, is not true. 

 

CFR relates to a given pool of positive cases, today's 2000 cases, for example. They are probably going to have a CFR around 0.5%, meaning somewhere around 10 are going to die. There is no way for you to change that by testing other people. 

 

Reducing deaths is a good thing. Reducing cases is a good thing.  There isn't enough testing. 

 

Excuse me? Perhaps I didn’t explain my self clearly enough.

 

yes, let’s assume CFR is constant. So a specific percentage of positive cases will die. Today’s positive cases are, say, 2000. With a CFR of 0.5%, 10 will die. The math is clear. And testing will not change the CFR, so it will not change todays deaths. We are in agreement on this. It’s a mathematic calculation in respect of those 2,000 people.

 

so why do I think testing will help? The answer is not that  it will help those 2,000 people nor the 10 who will die. It is too late for them.

 

no, the benefit of testing lies in the people who may test positive in the future. If the ratio of deaths to positive cases is constant, clearly there is a benefit to reducing the number of positive cases.
 

So how can that be done? Well, let’s take Thai prisons as an example. One prison has just reported a positivity rate of over 90%. Not all those cases occurred on the same day. They built up over a period of time. Now, to take an extreme example, let’s say that prior to any prisoners contracting the virus, every prisoner was tested every day.
 

If that had been done, the very first case would have been found very very quickly. I won’t say immediately given the incubation period, but very quickly. The prison could then have taken action to isolate any groups of prisoners who had been in contact with the positive prisoner. Very likely that prison would not have as many positive cases in the future.
 

The testing would have reduced the number of positive cases because it would have identified them earlier, resulting in earlier intervention to stop the transmission of the virus, resulting in fewer cases, resulting in fewer deaths.

 

tbh, danderman, I don’t think I can explain this theory any more clearly and there is no point beating it to death any further. If you don’t see the logic, let’s just call it a day.

11 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

and I would attribute Thailand's relative escape from the worst of Covid more down to luck than anything done by the government.

Government intervention has had negligible if any effect and caused great harm in the process. Unless you're on a literal island there's nothing your government can do for you to prevent viral spread.

 

Look at these excess deaths figures across countries. Where's the correlation between deaths and government intervention?

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/

Thailand's new homegrown variant:

 

A new Thai variant of #COVID19 has been detected in the UK, public health chiefs have confirmed. The C.36.3 variant was first detected in Thailand in cases of people who had originally travelled from Egypt

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1398052284420952064

 

 

The data, published today, shows 109 cases of the new Thai strain have been discovered in the UK.

Health chiefs are investigating the variant on the basis of the mutation profile and increased importation from a widening international area.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1442280/thai-covid-variant-uk-public-health-england-update-breaking-news

Inflammatory post removed.  

 

13 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The Case Fatality Rate is the ratio of deaths to positive cases. 

 

Your argument is that reducing positive cases somehow reduces the Case Fatality Rate, is not true. 

 

CFR relates to a given pool of positive cases, today's 2000 cases, for example. They are probably going to have a CFR around 0.5%, meaning somewhere around 10 are going to die. There is no way for you to change that by testing other people. 

 

Reducing deaths is a good thing. Reducing cases is a good thing.  There isn't enough testing. 

 

No, my argument is that reducing cases, reduces the overall death count. My examples show that clearly.

 

YOU are talking about the CFR, and you have admitted your argument on that is false.

 

since we are talking about two different things, not surprisingly we fail to agree. Probably time to drop it.

 

si

9 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

Government intervention has had negligible if any effect and caused great harm in the process. Unless you're on a literal island there's nothing your government can do for you to prevent viral spread.

 

Look at these excess deaths figures across countries. Where's the correlation between deaths and government intervention?

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/

This is the “lockdowns don’t work” idiocy, amended to admit that lockdowns work for islands. It ignores successful lockdowns in Vietnam, and the impact of lockdowns in other countries.

Geez, hang in there ladies and gentlemen, it will get  better. You all have toughened it out so far, don't give up now. This action by the royalty may very well signal a turnaround.

 

Many of us who are watching from afar are pulling for you.

Conservative estimate - 90000 cases confirmed every 30 days based on 3,000 +/- (and please do correct me if I"m wrong, as many kind individuals have already done one more than one occasion).

So put in the death factor, people with long COVID which is very debilitating, hospitalizations, ICU's.

 

Can Thailand's health care system take it?  

 

Let's say it's 4,000 average per day (120000 per month but not there yet)

 

And on it goes.  

I am very hopeful that Thais are doing their best and will continue to distance and try to drop this down.  

 

 

 

Asean reported the highest number of Covid-19 cases and fatalities in 10 days on Thursday. #Asean #COVID19 #TheNationThailand

 

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/international/40001392

Throwing this in there too, look at Nepal.  I mean it's a third world country in every sense of the word, but it's really bad there.  People are dying and they are not even going to the hospital because they are all full.

Again it's not happening in Thailand but what if it was possible for all those people to go to the hospital.  Do you all feel me?

Again, I think that Thailand can pull this off.  That means Thais not the government.  I know that people find the culture sometimes annoying but so are we - the nice thing about it is they can come together and make it work.

It is truly my hope.  I want nobody to suffer any more.  

Chonburi Public Health Office has just announced that they have 42 new cases and one more death. The total new cases so far is now 4,437. Most new cases are in Bang Lamung/Pattaya (5), Chonburi City (6), and Sriracha (25) #COVID19 #Thailand

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1398067122484383744

 

Edited May 28, 20215 yr by anchadian

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Oops

 

Story of my life.

Thailand reports 3,759 new COVID-19 cases, 34 new deaths

 

REUTERS FILE PHOTO for reference only

 

Thailand on Friday (May 28) reported 3,759 new COVID-19 cases and 34 additional deaths.

 

Full story: https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1218617-thailand-reports-3759-new-covid-19-cases-34-new-deaths/

 

//CLOSED//

/Admin