A clarifying note to the audience who don’t understand Case Fatality Rate:

 

About 2000 civvies were found to be positive today. At a case fatality rate of 1%, 20 will die. 
 

My question is how more testing would change the number who will die.

 

I have pointed out that the factors that will determine the death rate are the kind of hospital that treats them, how tired the medical staff is, equipment failures, supply issues, real life problems that happen during epidemics. But “more testing”, I don’t see how that figures in.

 

And yes, case fatality rates often rise as epidemics grind on, for the reasons mentioned above.

 

Sometimes, however, CFR may drop if new procedures are developed or a cure is found.

Edited May 27, 20215 yr by Danderman123

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The Case Fatality Rate has 2 components:

 

Positive Cases, and

 

Fatalities among those positive cases.

 

Which of these numbers would be altered by your suggestions?

You missed the point that testing will result in less spread therefore less infections therefore less deaths. This is simple 1st yr university philosophy/logic. It is I'm afraid also basic logic. I'm sorry you can't see this. Unfortunately for Thailand it would seem the empty heads in charge can't see this.

Edited May 27, 20215 yr by dinsdale

5 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

How are the hotspots being eliminated?Do you have any info on these eliminations?

In todays English version the Govt spoke of patrolling(so to speak) the construction and big wholesale markets  sites in  Bangkok.

Its about time imop ! I've said before mitigation and hygiene practices are imop not being practiced enough in these areas of concern !

49 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I have never see Thailand’s R rate quoted. Whether that means they don’t calculate it or calculate it but don’t publish it, I have no idea. But I have never seen it.

See graph 3 for how R0 varies with time/situation.https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/thailand/

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Opinion: A royal intervention in the healthcare arena is a rebuke against Prayuth

The announcement in the Royal Gazette that the Chulabhorn Royal Academy can ignore and bypass the Prayuth government’s policy to centralize the procurement of the Covid-19 vaccines is not only an embarrassment to the government, but also tantamount to a pseudo power-grab, at least within the healthcare realm.

 

Specifically, the decree grants autonomous power to the Institute in negotiating and importing Covid-19 vaccines with the manufacturers both in Thailand and abroad. This was a right that was reserved for only the Thai government.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27935/opinion-a-royal-intervention-in-the-healthcare-arena-is-a-rebuke-against-prayuth/

 

The announcement also said all medical equipment, drugs and vaccines imported by the academy would be considered its property for the purpose of medicine and public health and will not be liable to any kind of legal execution.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40001346

 

Chulabhorn Royal Academy given sweeping healthcare powers in late night announcement

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27937/chulabhorn-institute-given-sweeping-healthcare-powers-in-late-night-announcement/

Hopefully someone in Thailand is considering opening a second vaccine production facility to serve the nation & the ASEAN region as new viruses are bound to follow.

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1397823131830554624

 

The Department of Corrections has released the latest statistics. Today they are reporting 1,228 new cases bringing the grand total to 21,010. Out of these, 4,465 have recovered. So far, there have been 6 deaths. Most cases today were from Khlong Prem Prison (889) #Thailand

 

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

A clarifying note to the audience who don’t understand Case Fatality Rate:

 

About 2000 civvies were found to be positive today. At a case fatality rate of 1%, 20 will die. 
 

My question is how more testing would change the number who will die.

 

I have pointed out that the factors that will determine the death rate are the kind of hospital that treats them, how tired the medical staff is, equipment failures, supply issues, real life problems that happen during epidemics. But “more testing”, I don’t see how that figures in.

 

And yes, case fatality rates often rise as epidemics grind on, for the reasons mentioned above.

 

Sometimes, however, CFR may drop if new procedures are developed or a cure is found.

Testing will help identify positive cases earlier, allowing people to self isolate before infecting so many others and hopefully stop clusters developing. So in your example, testing might have helped reduce the positive number of cases from 2000 to 1500. That in turn reduces deaths.

 

There are plenty of variables involved but the essence of it is, identify positive people before they infect others.

12 minutes ago, morrobay said:

See graph 3 for how R0 varies with time/situation.https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/thailand/

Goodness knows if I am reading correctly, but it seems Thailand’s R rate is well below 1 and the case numbers should be cut in half shortly.

 

interesting. Although it’s based on known positive cases and presumably the sudden identification of large clusters of cases which were previously unknown and therefore not accounted for in the calculations, could throw it out of whack.

55 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

A clarifying note to the audience who don’t understand Case Fatality Rate:

 

About 2000 civvies were found to be positive today. At a case fatality rate of 1%, 20 will die. 
 

My question is how more testing would change the number who will die.

 

I have pointed out that the factors that will determine the death rate are the kind of hospital that treats them, how tired the medical staff is, equipment failures, supply issues, real life problems that happen during epidemics. But “more testing”, I don’t see how that figures in.

 

And yes, case fatality rates often rise as epidemics grind on, for the reasons mentioned above.

 

Sometimes, however, CFR may drop if new procedures are developed or a cure is found.

You need some education on the relationship between testing and case fatality.

 

Impact of virus testing on COVID-19 case fatality rate:

 

The increase of one percentage point in the test rate is associated with a decrease of 0.001 percentage point in the death rate. In other words, for each additional 1000 tests, one person would have remained alive.

 

COVID-19 intensive screening policies were significantly associated with a decrease in the fatality-case rate in France. These results support the implementation of mass screening strategies and could provide important information for decision-makers in the fight against SARS-CoV2 pandemic. 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080531v1

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341337672_Impact_of_Virus_Testing_on_COVID-19_Case_Fatality_Rate_Estimate_Using_a_Fixed-Effects_Model

Edited May 27, 20215 yr by Bkk Brian

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Someone needed to step in. The bumbling, fumbling, mismanagement, and staggering incompetence is getting embarrassing and revealing Anutin and Prayuth as the men they truly are. Incapable. 

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so. Between Aug and Christmas last year I traveled the length and breadth of Thailand without a problem, something residents of many other countries could only dream about. 

Since Christmas there has been outbreaks, but what country hasn't suffered from outbreaks and no country has been free from failings in one form or another.

The hatred and bigotry directed towards the Thai government on this forum is unbelievable and those that claim to come from a civilised society should be ashamed. This cannot be dressed up as some form of criticism, the underlying problem is fairly obvious.

This is Thailand and if people do not like the way they do things they are perfectly free to move to a more acceptable environment.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Who told you the UK strain is more deadly per infection?

 

Who told you the Indian strain is less deadly per infection?

Hi Brian, thanks for you question.

 

There are 17 genetic changes in the B.1.1.7 variant from England with evidence that this variant is more contagious. Scientists noticed a surge of cases in areas where the new strain appeared.

Some of the mutations in the B.1.1.7 version affect the coronavirus’s spike protein, which covers the outer coating of SARS-CoV-2 and give the virus its characteristic spiny appearance. These proteins help the virus attach to human cells in the nose, lungs and other areas of the body binding more tightly to our cells.

 

Which explains why Thailand, who successfully had measures in place for so long, has been caught off guard with the B117 strain with deaths and infections up 90% since this wave hit us in April.

 

and it ain't over yet.

3 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

Hi Brian, thanks for you question.

 

There are 17 genetic changes in the B.1.1.7 variant from England with evidence that this variant is more contagious. Scientists noticed a surge of cases in areas where the new strain appeared.

Some of the mutations in the B.1.1.7 version affect the coronavirus’s spike protein, which covers the outer coating of SARS-CoV-2 and give the virus its characteristic spiny appearance. These proteins help the virus attach to human cells in the nose, lungs and other areas of the body binding more tightly to our cells.

 

Which explains why Thailand, who successfully had measures in place for so long, has been caught off guard with the B117 strain with deaths and infections up 90% since this wave hit us in April.

 

and it ain't over yet.

We all know its more contagious but where does that fit in with your claim below?

 

"I was told it was the English strain but I hope you are right.

 

The Indian strain isn't as deadly or contagious."

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The hatred and bigotry directed towards the Thai government on this forum is unbelievable and those that claim to come from a civilised society should be ashamed.

It is only from the loud minority who endlessly complain everything Thai.

 

It is rediculous when looking at the statistics compared to other countries. Of course Thailand has been successful. The idiots claiming otherwise complain about everything in Thailand, they simply don't know any other way.

 

I just laugh at them. As you said, they should just leave, but they stay. It is the same minority day after day.

15 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so. Between Aug and Christmas last year I traveled the length and breadth of Thailand without a problem, something residents of many other countries could only dream about. 

Who here is talking about the crisis last year or even criticizing it?

7 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Just as a comparison in Melbourne they have 26 cases and contact traces in 24 hours have tracked and locked down 10,000 close contacts and 150 exposure sites have been identified  and that the outbreak is no longer under control so in Thailand with 2000 plus positive cases each day one can imagine Thailand might have hundreds of thousand of close contacts each day and it's still under control according to the authorities and some others.

Anuthin, Anuthin, Anuthin...............

12 minutes ago, morrobay said:

See graph 3 for how R0 varies with time/situation.https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/thailand/

Goodness knows if I am reading correctly, but it seems Thailand’s R rate is well below 1 and the case numbers should be cut in half shortly.

 

interesting. Although it’s based on known positive cases and presumably the sudden identification of large clusters of cases which were previously unknown and therefore not accounted for in the calculations, could throw it out of whack.

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Just the opposite, a couple thousand new infections every day are inevitably going to lead to double digit fatalities for weeks to come.

 

As for specific hotspots being eliminated, you would have to compare the reports from 2 or 3 weeks ago to today.

More hot spots found everyday, so you can not compare those from 3 weeks ago as they are still working on those as well.  None of them have been cleared to my knowledge.

 

Edited May 27, 20215 yr by ThailandRyan

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The news comes as Thailand is modifying its coronavirus immunisation strategy to target worst-hit areas and sectors where clusters are most likely to emerge.

I wonder when the vaccines will emerge?

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Who here is talking about the crisis last year or even criticizing it?

I think he is talking about a few of us who to this day still do not believe the numbers that are coming out of the Government, and we did not believe them last year.  I would venture a guess to say he would name me as one of the doomsayers.  

3 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I wonder when the vaccines will emerge?

Ground hog day maybe!

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

My question is how more testing would change the number who will die

Brian already told you how testing effect the numbers how many die. Also if testing more maybe find many covid victim what is not now in numbers.

41 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so. Between Aug and Christmas last year I traveled the length and breadth of Thailand without a problem, something residents of many other countries could only dream about. 

Since Christmas there has been outbreaks, but what country hasn't suffered from outbreaks and no country has been free from failings in one form or another.

The hatred and bigotry directed towards the Thai government on this forum is unbelievable and those that claim to come from a civilised society should be ashamed. This cannot be dressed up as some form of criticism, the underlying problem is fairly obvious.

This is Thailand and if people do not like the way they do things they are perfectly free to move to a more acceptable environment.

There he goes, the obligatory daily mantra of "if you don't like the way they do things in Thailand then you are perfectly free to move to a more acceptable environment".  Unfortunately criticism is hard to take for some, but when it is warranted, like with the way we see this being handled, then we feel free to discuss this on an open forum.  Should you feel the need to disagree then disagree, but to call us bigots and having hatred for this country you are dead wrong Sir.  Back to the rest of my day, enjoying how well the vaccine rollout is going, and how the deaths just seem to keep rolling along.  Had this Government, knowing what they knew, stopped the Songkran travel most of what we are experiencing and seeing could have been possibly kept in check.  Now the factory clusters are a different story as they are born out of sheer greed by the corporations.

24 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so. Between Aug and Christmas last year I traveled the length and breadth of Thailand without a problem, something residents of many other countries could only dream about. 

Since Christmas there has been outbreaks, but what country hasn't suffered from outbreaks and no country has been free from failings in one form or another.

The hatred and bigotry directed towards the Thai government on this forum is unbelievable and those that claim to come from a civilised society should be ashamed. This cannot be dressed up as some form of criticism, the underlying problem is fairly obvious.

This is Thailand and if people do not like the way they do things they are perfectly free to move to a more acceptable environment.

Strange.most of what I read seems to acknowledge at least the good thai results for the first year of the pandemic, even if not explicitly the government actions. But many acknowledge the success the government had.

 

the principal criticism that I have read relates to the Thonglor outbreak and lack of a timely reaction to it. Specifically the way in which people were allowed, even encouraged, to travel after the outbreak was identified.

 

of course, the timing of the outbreak prior to the arrival of vaccines, has also thrown the governments primary reliance on the locally produced AZ vaccine into focus, especially since those vaccines only start to become available next month.

 

perhaps the vaccine timing thing can be termed bad luck, since without the 3rd wave, June commencement of mass vaccinations might have worked out ok. But the lack of action after the Thonglor outbreak is generally perceived negatively.

 

there are other issues of course, lack of a vaccination process for foreigners and the conflicting announcements that occur fairly frequently for instance, but the above two issues are the biggies in my opinion.

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Opinion: A royal intervention in the healthcare arena is a rebuke against Prayuth

The announcement in the Royal Gazette that the Chulabhorn Royal Academy can ignore and bypass the Prayuth government’s policy to centralize the procurement of the Covid-19 vaccines is not only an embarrassment to the government, but also tantamount to a pseudo power-grab, at least within the healthcare realm.

 

Specifically, the decree grants autonomous power to the Institute in negotiating and importing Covid-19 vaccines with the manufacturers both in Thailand and abroad. This was a right that was reserved for only the Thai government.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27935/opinion-a-royal-intervention-in-the-healthcare-arena-is-a-rebuke-against-prayuth/

 

The announcement also said all medical equipment, drugs and vaccines imported by the academy would be considered its property for the purpose of medicine and public health and will not be liable to any kind of legal execution.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40001346

 

Chulabhorn Royal Academy given sweeping healthcare powers in late night announcement

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27937/chulabhorn-institute-given-sweeping-healthcare-powers-in-late-night-announcement/

 

 Anunit does know anything about this

36 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so.

In a democracy the majority wins so it looks like you're on the losing side, on the other hand unfortunately we don't live in a democracy here so you can count yourself a winner! 

37 active clusters still in Bangkok: Not all in camps as some would like us to believe:

 

Of the 37 currently active clusters in Bangkok, 12 have been found in construction-worker camps, 11 around markets and shopping centres, eight in crowded communities, five at businesses and one at care homes.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/27978/covid-daily-death-toll-hits-record-for-second-time-in-two-days/

 

 

Bemused by the statement , but that is with 1200 prison cases . Should that lessen the impact of the situation in Thailand concerning covid 19 cases ? In my opinion that should increase the concerns . Why ? Because  the inmates are tested . That is not happening in any  great numbers across the population of Thailand.

I read in the media in Late April 2021  that in Chiang Mai 30 on remand prisoners were shown to be positive . They had not yet been inside the prison when they were tested.

That only proves  that the numbers of covid infections are far greater than the numbers declared because of lack of testing .

7 hours ago, dinsdale said:

88 deaths in two days. Thailand now number 84 on the covid charts up 35 spots in around a month and a half. Victoria, Australia about to go into a 7 day maybe more lockdown with an outbreak of 26 positives and numerous infection sites. Bangkok and surrounds, community transmission 2-2.5k every day. Around 200x the infections of Victoria in one day (yesterday Victoria found 11 new cases which makes up the 26 day before was 15) with around 3-4x the population. No lockdown. 

Locking down a city for 26 cases is ridiculous 

Just now, Tonypandy said:

Locking down a city for 26 cases is ridiculous 

In your view, but not in their eyes. It is the way they have chosen to handle it unfortunate as it may be.

38 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Ground hog day maybe!

Does that come before Christmas day?