Testing prior to vaccination

[tlandtday]

Are Covid tests being done prior to vaccination?  It would only make sense as so many have Covid and are asymptomatic.  If not then we are possibly vaccinated someone who already has Covid.  Additionally we have possible spreaders in what should be a tightly controlled environment.  

[oldcpu]

In Phuket there were no COVID tests prior to Sinovac vaccinations nor prior to AstraZeneca vaccinations.    I note thou Phuket has had VERY few COVID positive cases in this recent pandemic wave in Thailand.

[tlandtday]

14 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

In Phuket there were no COVID tests prior to Sinovac vaccinations nor prior to AstraZeneca vaccinations.    I note thou Phuket has had VERY few COVID positive cases in this recent pandemic wave in Thailand.

no testing equals no cases...

[oldcpu]

2 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

no testing equals no cases...

I agree.

 

However I also note the Phuket hospitals are not facing the struggles that other Hospitals across Thailand are facing, with hospitals outside of Phuket being swamped with cases.  So while the point about not testing = no cases is good, ... looking at the hospital # of cases, relative to the remainder of the country, does provide another indicator. 

 

So I still maintain, relative to elsewhere in Thailand, Phuket has seen relatively limited number of COVID cases.

Edited July 7, 2021 by oldcpu

[tlandtday]

3 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

I agree.

 

However I also note the Phuket hospitals are not facing the struggles that other Hospitals across Thailand are facing, with hospitals outside of Phuket being swamped with cases.  So while the point about not testing = no cases is good, ... looking at the hospital # of cases, relative to the remainder of the country, does provide another indicator. 

 

So I still maintain, relative to elsewhere in Thailand, Phuket has seen relatively limited number of COVID cases.

many carriers are asymptomatic so why should Phuket be any different than any other place plus it was wide open to the influx of tourists from Wuhan like much of Thailand in the initial stages...

[oldcpu]

2 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

many carriers are asymptomatic so why should Phuket be any different than any other place plus it was wide open to the influx of tourists from Wuhan like much of Thailand in the initial stages...

Indeed. Why would Phuket be different?  Many (most ) other provinces in Thailand have hospitals being swamped. Phuket is not.

 

Does that mean Sinovac actually works?  That it stops hospitalisation?   ... I am a bit skeptical there - and I believe the more likely explanation is Phuket simply does not have as many cases.

 

Whats your view on this ?  Effective Sinovac?

 

[oldcpu]

To put the # of new daily reported cases of COVID in perspective, here is my unofficial tracking since early April this year ... where my sources of information for this are:

* https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

* https://mobile.twitter.com/nbtworldnews?lang=en

I also track (for my own interest) Bangkok and ChonBuri - which have been hit much harder (in terms of # of new cases) in this current wave, and their hospitals are close to being overloaded.

 

[oldcpu]

28 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

no testing equals no cases...

I should add - that going back many weeks (well over a month) anyone entering Phuket, had to have a recent test (or full SinoVac vaccination or partial AstraZeneca vaccination).  This can be partly controlled as there is only one land bridge to Phuket (the remainder being boat and airtraffic, both of which are very quiet at present due to pandemic).   So Phuket had a lot of 'pre-emptive' testing - relatively more than other provinces ....

 

I believe that (testing being needed - as you infer) is an important reason why Phuket has kept its # of new cases in the Phuket hospitals MUCH smaller than other provinces.  Practically everyone now, who is tested positive for the virus, or who shows up in the hospitals in Phuket, has a connection to outside of Phuket where they caught the virus.

[tlandtday]

33 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

To put the # of new daily reported cases of COVID in perspective, here is my unofficial tracking since early April this year ... where my sources of information for this are:

* https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

* https://mobile.twitter.com/nbtworldnews?lang=en

I also track (for my own interest) Bangkok and ChonBuri - which have been hit much harder (in terms of # of new cases) in this current wave, and their hospitals are close to being overloaded.

 

okay do you have the testing data?  the number of tests needs to be similar between areas for accurate results

[tlandtday]

49 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Indeed. Why would Phuket be different?  Many (most ) other provinces in Thailand have hospitals being swamped. Phuket is not.

 

Does that mean Sinovac actually works?  That it stops hospitalisation?   ... I am a bit skeptical there - and I believe the more likely explanation is Phuket simply does not have as many cases.

 

Whats your view on this ?  Effective Sinovac?

 

  those tested and positive go to hospitals in many cases.  i know a couple instances where the young ladies should never have been admitted as they were perfectly healthy in a matter of days. if no testing no beds filled.  there is no advantage to a thai showing up at a hospital so he and his family can be quarantined, he may lose his job etc... 

Edited July 7, 2021 by tlandtday

[oldcpu]

1 minute ago, tlandtday said:

okay do you have the testing data?  the number of tests needs to be similar between areas for accurate results

Yes - every day since early April, I have copied to a spreadsheet the data for Phuket, Bangkok, Chon Buri, SamutSakhon and mostly (but not all) for Chiang Mai. 

 

Its too much work to do it for more than those provinces and I have my own personal reasons for being interested in those.

[tlandtday]

Just now, oldcpu said:

Yes - every day since early April, I have copied to a spreadsheet the data for Phuket, Bangkok, Chon Buri, SamutSakhon and mostly (but not all) for Chiang Mai. 

 

Its too much work to do it for more than those provinces and I have my own personal reasons for being interested in those.

i see case data but not testing data that is what is needed can we see these

[oldcpu]

1 minute ago, tlandtday said:

no I don't belive sinovac is doing much the answer is testing.  those tested and positive go to hospitals in many cases.  if no testing no beds filled.  there is no advantage to a thai showing up at a hospital so he and his family can be quarantined, he may lose his job etc... 

Indeed - its the same consideration thou across all of Thailand.  The same factors I believe apply.  So if Phuket hospitals have less in the hospital, it should not be different from elsewhere in Thailand.

[tlandtday]

Just now, oldcpu said:

Indeed - its the same consideration thou across all of Thailand.  The same factors I believe apply.  So if Phuket hospitals have less in the hospital, it should not be different from elsewhere in Thailand.

not so as I have said testing equals hospital entries... if not testing very few will voluntarily go to the hospital

[oldcpu]

8 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

i see case data but not testing data that is what is needed can we see these

The test data is on the web site of one of the references I provided. They provide daily test totals and total test totals.  I think the # of tests is close to 95,000 since the beginning of April ??  ... but that should be checked ...

 

Reference: https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

 

Note the testing thou is a bit targetted. i.e. test those coming into the province, and test those who are believed in contact with a possible COVID case, and test those who go to a hospital with possible symptoms.

 

Again thou - my point is all other provinces are not different.  Thai people just as reluctant as in other provinces, as in Phuket, to go get tested and possible be forced into quarantine.  So there has to be a reason for Phuket Hospitals having relatively less cases than many other provinces (such as Bangkok, ChonBuri, SamutSakhon) ...

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by oldcpu

[oldcpu]

8 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

not so as I have said testing equals hospital entries... if not testing very few will voluntarily go to the hospital

Why? So people in Phuket won't go to hospital - but people in other provinces will go to the hospital ?  I don't think so.

 

Its all relative.

[tlandtday]

6 minutes ago, oldcpu said:

Why? So people in Phuket won't go to hospital - but people in other provinces will go to the hospital ?  I don't think so.

 

Its all relative.

It's only relative with equal testing.  Once again there is little motivation for a thai to voluntarily go to a hospital and  tested individuals are the ones most likely going to the hospital.  Unless we can see testing data the number of daily cases is not comparable across regions.

 

can you post the testing data for a reasonable time frame between regions here?

Edited July 7, 2021 by tlandtday

[oldcpu]

5 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

can you post the testing data for a reasonable time frame between regions here?

As noted, I don't keep a running record of the # of tests conducted per day (although it is available for Phuket if one were to spend a few hours going through that facebook link page (to Phuket Police dept) that I provided.   For certain I won't go back to grab such.   As for other provinces, I don't know where to get # of daily tests conducted for other provinces.

 

I only record/plot the # of new daily cases in a spreadsheet (for provinces which I noted above).  Posting the data going back to early April-2021 would not be possible in a forum post - but I can post the charts from Bangkok and ChonBuri.  I have some data gaps in SamutSakhon and ChiangMai plots which I have not bothered to go back and get (as I was only curious about those provinces later on).

[oldcpu]

15 minutes ago, tlandtday said:

It's only relative with equal testing.

 

My assumption is testing (or lack there of) is likely equal (more or less) across all of Thailand, with the exception of the Thailand provinces which ( like Phuket) required testing for anyone entering into their provinces. In those provinces, I believe the # of tests (ie Phuket) conducted is likely higher. ... But that is my speculation - I don't have data to back up my speculation, and I don't know of anyone who has data to prove it one way or the other.

Edited July 7, 2021 by oldcpu

[oldcpu]

In case anyone is curious - from the Phuket Police web site one can get how many tests were conducted on any particular day.

* https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

for example, yesterday in Phuket, 755 tests recorded for a running total of 94,209 tests recorded (assuming I understand correctly what my Thai wife told me when she read it for me).  Images I am referring to are below (and I do not know where to get such information for provinces other than Phuket).

[jomtienisgood]

20 hours ago, oldcpu said:

In Phuket there were no COVID tests prior to Sinovac vaccinations nor prior to AstraZeneca vaccinations.    I note thou Phuket has had VERY few COVID positive cases in this recent pandemic wave in Thailand.

They will be arriving with the Sandbox.....

[oldcpu]

20 hours ago, tlandtday said:

It's only relative with equal testing. 

Ok - I took a look at the average # of tests per capita across Thailand (for the period of 1-April to end-June), which one can get here:  https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

I then took a look at the # of tests conducted in Phuket for a similar period, where one can get the data here to produce an estimate :  https://www.facebook.com/83ssj/?__tn__=-UC*F

 

By my unofficial calculation, Phuket has had about 3x the national average (per capita) of tests conducted on their population in Phuket and entering into Phuket, relative to the rest of Thailand. 

 

That is not to say there should not be more tests, but it does give me confidence that the observation that Phuket's hospitals are not seeing as many pandemic cases as many other provinces in Thailand is not because Phuket people are afraid to go to the hospital to get tested relative to other provinces ... ergo I think the numbers of new daily cases reported in Phuket, is relatively representative/accurate compared to other provinces and possibly more accurate.

 

That does not mean that there are not more unreported cases, but IMHO it does to my satisifaction support my view that Phuket is better off than most other provinces, wrt the number of cases of this virus.

.

Edited July 8, 2021 by oldcpu

[BusyB]

22 hours ago, oldcpu said:

I agree.

 

However I also note the Phuket hospitals are not facing the struggles that other Hospitals across Thailand are facing, with hospitals outside of Phuket being swamped with cases.  So while the point about not testing = no cases is good, ... looking at the hospital # of cases, relative to the remainder of the country, does provide another indicator. 

 

So I still maintain, relative to elsewhere in Thailand, Phuket has seen relatively limited number of COVID cases.

That's because it's the only area in Thailand that has a decent level of vaccination ...