U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Fair enough.  Affordable homes can be found in the US.  The "specific location" may be the sticky point. Real estate as I am sure you know is ruled by geography.  If a returning retiree is tied to a specific location, that can be bad.  If they are flexible, so much the better. 

 

Here is a cut little place in New Mexico for 75k...

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/808-S-Avenue-B_Portales_NM_88130_M10082-99609?ex=2944753572

Your specific example is very good FOR SOME PEOPLE but you need to always look at the details.

 

A returning expat may not have 75 k cash.

 

A returning expat on a lower end check would not be able to get s mortgsge.

 

I checked rentals there. 600 and less all looked horrible and subject to future ruinous increases.

 

1200 up decent. Thats the entire income for many. No landlord would rent in that case.

 

You would need to run a car there. Several thousands annually even ig you bought a beater for cash. Repairs  maintensnce, gas, insurance.

 

So yes an example like that could work for SOME but best if they could buy with cash.

 

 

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Great minds think alike.  

 

Here is our view at Saguaro National Park while grilling up a couple tomahawk t-bones and enjoying a nice bottle of California Cabernet...

Stop hijacking this topic. 

[Hanaguma]

8 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Your specific example is very good FOR SOME PEOPLE but you need to always look at the details.

 

A returning expat may not have 75 k cash.

 

A returning expat on a lower end check would not be able to get s mortgsge.

 

I checked rentals there. 600 and less all looked horrible and subject to future ruinous increases.

 

1200 up decent. Thats the entire income for many. No landlord would rent in that case.

 

You would need to run a car there. Several thousands annually even ig you bought a beater for cash. Repairs  maintensnce, gas, insurance.

 

So yes an example like that could work for SOME but best if they could buy with cash.

 

 

I would venture to say that an expat without 75k in cash should have never left home in the first place, unless they were on a VERY generous pension. 

 

But you are right, it would work for some.   As would the nomadic life.  Not sure what you are looking for- the mythical $400 a month apartment in an area well served by public transport, yet not crime ridden or infested?

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

I would venture to say that an expat without 75k in cash should have never left home in the first place, unless they were on a VERY generous pension. 

 

But you are right, it would work for some.   As would the nomadic life.  Not sure what you are looking for- the mythical $400 a month apartment in an area well served by public transport, yet not crime ridden or infested?

If you're on a low social security check rent over 600 won't work.

Obviously better to live abroad in countries where you can get something quite good without need for car for well under 600.

[EVENKEEL]

Just now, Hanaguma said:

I would venture to say that an expat without 75k in cash should have never left home in the first place, unless they were on a VERY generous pension. 

 

But you are right, it would work for some.   As would the nomadic life.  Not sure what you are looking for- the mythical $400 a month apartment in an area well served by public transport, yet not crime ridden or infested?

If I were in that situation I would find an affordable RV park that has decent monthly rents. $400/mo is doable in Fla and surrounding states. Once you find the park, finding a livable 27-32 ft trailer isn't hard, somewhere in the $10,000 range for a decent used one.

[Hanaguma]

This is a Youtube channel that has dozens of listings for low cost mobile homes in Florida, especially for seniors. Purchase prices as low as 15-20,000 bucks plus the lot rental.   

 

Here is one for 25K plus 550 a month lot rent.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_XAr6idXnQ

[Jingthing]

11 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

This is a Youtube channel that has dozens of listings for low cost mobile homes in Florida, especially for seniors. Purchase prices as low as 15-20,000 bucks plus the lot rental.   

 

Here is one for 25K plus 550 a month lot rent.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_XAr6idXnQ

So what to do when the rent doubles and your 25,000 thingie becomes worthless? Such deals are literally TRAPS for poor seniors. A captive audience for the vulture corporations buying up such parks. Not to mention hurricanes.

 

[KhunLA]

23 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

This is a Youtube channel that has dozens of listings for low cost mobile homes in Florida, especially for seniors. Purchase prices as low as 15-20,000 bucks plus the lot rental.   

 

Here is one for 25K plus 550 a month lot rent.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_XAr6idXnQ

Not sure why anyone would leave TH for USA, if having to pay $550 a month rent, besides the $25k 

 

$550 / ฿19k is enough to live on here.

 

[EVENKEEL]

9 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Not sure why anyone would leave TH for USA, if having to pay $550 a month rent, besides the $25k 

 

$550 / ฿19k is enough to live on here.

 

not to mention the caliber of renters you'd be surrounded by. You're better staying in TL and have some decent health ins. Much better life.

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

not to mention the caliber of renters you'd be surrounded by. You're better staying in TL and have some decent health ins. Much better life.

Wow. So we agree! For a lower income / wealth expat to voluntarily repatriate to the U.S. they are in for a MUCH LOWER quality of life with a real risk of life threatening homelessness. But plenty of people for a wide variety of reasons do "go home" with relative levels of actually wanting to. It's always a possibility for better or worse, if you're not wealthy and don't have earning power -- FOR WORSE.

[GinBoy2]

On 7/1/2022 at 3:38 AM, Jingthing said:

Wow. So we agree! For a lower income / wealth expat to voluntarily repatriate to the U.S. they are in for a MUCH LOWER quality of life with a real risk of life threatening homelessness. But plenty of people for a wide variety of reasons do "go home" with relative levels of actually wanting to. It's always a possibility for better or worse, if you're not wealthy and don't have earning power -- FOR WORSE.

I've been thinking about this, and isn't the same true of even intra country?

 

I grew up in California, and I always heard the story, 'if you leave you can't come back'

 

And at a certain level it's true, that once you cash out your chips in a high value location, be it within the US or overseas and mover to a low cost location, life moves on and as a returnee you are marginalized.

 

I'm sure this is true in other countries, the UK is the one that springs to mind.

Move out of London and after a few years return is probably hard, and as with the California example you will return to something less than what you left.

 

Multiply that by a factor or two when you cash out and move to Thailand and maybe want to go back.

 

I know you hate this JT, but thats when 'chickens and roosting' come to mind.

 

Decisions we make years, maybe decades ago determine our options in the here and now.

 

I always try to advise the rookies, don't cash out keep stuff back home just in case, because the future is a really uncertain place, and ultimately there really is no place like home

[mania]

7 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

 

1-And at a certain level it's true, that once you cash out your chips in a high value location, be it within the US or overseas and mover to a low cost location, life moves on and as a returnee you are marginalized.

 

2- but thats when 'chickens and roosting' come to mind.

Decisions we make years, maybe decades ago determine our options in the here and now.

 

 

Both very true points

Burn some bridges & there is no going back but that was YOUR decision

 

Secondly many complainers had their cake long ago now complain

[mania]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:38 PM, Jingthing said:

Wow. So we agree! For a lower income / wealth expat to voluntarily repatriate to the U.S. they are in for a MUCH LOWER quality of life with a real risk of life threatening homelessness. But plenty of people for a wide variety of reasons do "go home" with relative levels of actually wanting to. It's always a possibility for better or worse, if you're not wealthy and don't have earning power -- FOR WORSE.

I think most have always agreed "Lower/budget" dollar for dollars spent you can have a better quality of life in Thailand

 

As for repatriating always being for the worse please realize USA was always a get it your dang self kind of country period!

Anyone rich or poor who is not completely disabled can come here & find a suitable job at ANY age & have a nice life with the benefits the job also affords

Look at all the old retired folks working at Walmart,CVS,Amazon,Target etc etc etc

 

But problem is too many folks have Red Hen Syndrome

 

 

[Jingthing]

It's impossible to predict the future.

The US condo I.sold to finance my early retirement was at a bubble price at the time. Rents did not match. Having US rentals while living abroad is not for everyone. Its a complication and depending on the state a tax issue. 

 

Chickens home to roost suggests bad behavior. Yes I reject that negativity.

 

All we can do is make the best investment decisions at the time based on what we know at the time.

 

But frankly even knowing what happened over so many years I still don't think I would choose holding US real estate.

 

Not everyone is you though I agree people should be advised to at least strongly consider not selling.

 

Personally its not as if I want to repatriate but its nice to have the option.

 

I didn't forsee a future where repatriation even in a more remote crappy area would become highly unfeasible. Certainly 5 years ago that was not the case.

 

Oh well.

[Yellowtail]

8 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

I've been thinking about this, and isn't the same true of even intra country?

 

I grew up in California, and I always heard the story, 'if you leave you can't come back'

 

And at a certain level it's true, that once you cash out your chips in a high value location, be it within the US or overseas and mover to a low cost location, life moves on and as a returnee you are marginalized.

 

I'm sure this is true in other countries, the UK is the one that springs to mind.

Move out of London and after a few years return is probably hard, and as with the California example you will return to something less than what you left.

 

Multiply that by a factor or two when you cash out and move to Thailand and maybe want to go back.

 

I know you hate this JT, but thats when 'chickens and roosting' come to mind.

 

Decisions we make years, maybe decades ago determine our options in the here and now.

 

I always try to advise the rookies, don't cash out keep stuff back home just in case, because the future is a really uncertain place, and ultimately there really is no place like home

No problem cashing in, as long as you don't blow the money. Anyone that sold a property most anywhere in the US twenty years ago and saved/invested the money would likely be in good shape to move back wherever they came from. 

 

The problem is that many people that cash-out, spend the money, and end up with nothing. 

 

My best friend in the world makes almost $200K a year, his wife was making $80K, and he has $100K in credit card debt. He inherited a house about five years ago and not owes a couple hundred k on it. He's sixty now, and by the time he retires he'll probably be half a million in debt and living on SS. 

[KhunLA]

8 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

I grew up in California, and I always heard the story, 'if you leave you can't come back' ....  you are marginalized.

and ultimately there really is no place like home

When leaving, knew I won't be going back.  If so, don't know why would be marginalized, though not sure what that means.

 

Would not go back to 'hometown' area, as left there, with no regrets when I did live in the USA.

 

Really can't think of any reason to go anywhere else but here.  Only if much younger & obscenely rich.

[Jingthing]

I feel compelled to correct a false impression / missatement I may have given.

 

The intention of this topic is general and each individual has their own specific situation going on IF they either choose to or are forced to repatriate.

 

You know -- things like age, financial assets, current income, ability to go back to work or not, future earning power if any, existing home in the US or not, social support network family and friends to help with the transition if any, health status, etc.

 

So you see its impossible to make grand statements about everyone as each person has their own unique set of circumstances.

 

So the premise here is that because of the objective reality of high inflation and somewhat out of control housing costs / rents SOME expats will feel that going home is an exercise in masochism, some won't be able to afford it at all, some will face fewer obstacles but will still be moving to a much lower quality of life and for others there will be no problem at all or even a financial and quality of life upgrade

 

OBVIOUSLY this thread is focused on groups that would face great quality of life downgrades if they could do it at all.

 

If you're set and in the gravy this topic doesn't really apply to you.

 

Now as I said the focus is on groups who would suffer going back I have sometimes artificially taken the role of someone with a low social security check say 1200, no US housing, low assets, low or no earning power if able to still work, and less than wonderful social family network  That actually represents a lot of real people!

 

Obviously a person like that is well screwed if they repatriate now.

 

What I would like to correct is any impression I may have given that I am the same as that hypothetical person.

 

For example I personally would be able to buy a 75k house for cash. So that would make a big difference in feasibility for me or anyone else who could do that.

 

Of course liveable houses at 75k aren't exactly super abundant and in 5 years time for example who knows.

 

 

[Jingthing]

Well, I think everyone expects rents to go up gradually over time.

But was this kind of historic spike is different.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

 

Rent prices across US at all-time high; tenants struggle with hikes (usatoday.com)

Quote

 

Tenants struggle with rising rent as prices hit all-time highs

 

At a time when rising gasoline and food prices are already straining Americans’ budgets, many apartment tenants are grappling with soaring rents.

 

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area in Florida saw overall median rent soar over 50% in April from a year ago, to $3,045 a month, according to Realtor.com.

 

 

[mania]

55 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Well, I think everyone expects rents to go up gradually over time.

But was this kind of historic spike is different.

https://finbold.com/real-value-of-one-u-s-dollar-decreases-by-86-in-the-last-50-years/

[GinBoy2]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Well, I think everyone expects rents to go up gradually over time.

But was this kind of historic spike is different.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

 

Rent prices across US at all-time high; tenants struggle with hikes (usatoday.com)

 

The other way to look at this is that rents had stagnated for years.

 

In my own case I hadn't increased rents on my rentals for 5 years, and I don't think I'm alone in that, and it's not that I was in any rent controlled thing, it was just what the market rate was.

Thinking about it I even reduced the rent on one of the units a couple of years back by $50 to get it rented out.

 

So maybe we should look at it more as a correction to a previously stagnant market, rather than an unprecedented increase.

 

But that doesn't sound as good for the press trying to get eyeballs

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

The other way to look at this is that rents had stagnated for years.

 

In my own case I hadn't increased rents on my rentals for 5 years, and I don't think I'm alone in that, and it's not that I was in any rent controlled thing, it was just what the market rate was.

Thinking about it I even reduced the rent on one of the units a couple of years back by $50 to get it rented out.

 

So maybe we should look at it more as a correction to a previously stagnant market, rather than an unprecedented increase.

 

But that doesn't sound as good for the press trying to get eyeballs

And a lot of evil landlords took a big hit over the last couple yeas with the Fauci rent relief idiocy.

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

The other way to look at this is that rents had stagnated for years.

 

In my own case I hadn't increased rents on my rentals for 5 years, and I don't think I'm alone in that, and it's not that I was in any rent controlled thing, it was just what the market rate was.

Thinking about it I even reduced the rent on one of the units a couple of years back by $50 to get it rented out.

 

So maybe we should look at it more as a correction to a previously stagnant market, rather than an unprecedented increase.

 

But that doesn't sound as good for the press trying to get eyeballshmm

Hmm.

 

Let me check.

 

Maybe its the HOMELESSNESS.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/03/inflation-homeless-rent-housing/

 

 

Inflation is making homelessness worse

 

Rising prices and soaring rents are taking their toll across the country

 

 

[Reposed]

Place I rented in Texas was $1100/month for 4 years. It was month-to-month, no lease, in March 2020. Landlord said as long as I stayed, he would never raise the rent more than once every ten years.

 

In July, 2020, the landlord raised the rent to $1700/month. I moved out, telling him, good luck.

 

My neighbor said New Yorkers moved in the very next day. 

 

Pretty sure that would qualify as a spike.

 

[Yellowtail]

33 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Hmm.

 

Let me check.

 

Maybe its the HOMELESSNESS.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/03/inflation-homeless-rent-housing/

 

 

Inflation is making homelessness worse

 

Rising prices and soaring rents are taking their toll across the country

 

 

She was (apparently) making almost $100K a year, has a partner that likely contributed as well, and did not have two months rent saved. 

 

Seems inflation and relative gas prices were much higher in the '70s and we did not have the homeless "crisis" we (apparently) have now. Perhaps if we were not flushing so much money down the toilet on the habitually homeless there would ne more to help deserving couples that the first one in the article. 

 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, Reposed said:

Place I rented in Texas was $1100/month for 4 years. It was month-to-month, no lease, in March 2020. Landlord said as long as I stayed, he would never raise the rent more than once every ten years.

 

In July, 2020, the landlord raised the rent to $1700/month. I moved out, telling him, good luck.

 

My neighbor said New Yorkers moved in the very next day. 

 

Pretty sure that would qualify as a spike.

 

Yeah, you should have had a lease. 

 

So you got a similar place in the area for the same money? 

[Jingthing]

10 minutes ago, Reposed said:

Place I rented in Texas was $1100/month for 4 years. It was month-to-month, no lease, in March 2020. Landlord said as long as I stayed, he would never raise the rent more than once every ten years.

 

In July, 2020, the landlord raised the rent to $1700/month. I moved out, telling him, good luck.

 

My neighbor said New Yorkers moved in the very next day. 

 

Pretty sure that would qualify as a spike.

 

It would.

[rumak]

i hear there are some deals still available.    Many agents are offering a free AK47  with any house purchase .

 

 

[Reposed]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

So you got a similar place in the area for the same money? 

No. I moved here. One room stand-alone bungalow, quiet area, $130/month.

[Jingthing]

Yes the economic push and pull of ruinously high US housing costs has clearly amped up interest of Americans to move abroad.

 

Sometimes as a survival tactic and other times to get much more bang for your bucks. 

[Yellowtail]

34 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yes the economic push and pull of ruinously high US housing costs has clearly amped up interest of Americans to move abroad.

 

Sometimes as a survival tactic and other times to get much more bang for your bucks. 

Yet there is no shortage of people flooding into the US hoping to to take advantage of ",,,the economic push and pull of ruinously high US housing costs...".