Thai Rural Doctors Society claims COVID-19 infections are rising, not falling

[MrJ2U]

Gotta open up.

 

If its really that bad the first round of tourists will be stuck here indefinitely once another lockdown is imposed and flights stop.

 

 

[richthai]

I wonder how many ATK results are not reported? I've done it twice myself and didn't 'officially report the results'.  Of those ATK results that are positive, what is the split between self managing and reporting to a hospital for a PCR test?  There are likely many ATK test results that don't get included any where.  
Total tests reported an increase of only 1 million tests in 2-3 months?  Data is not being collected and managed for informed decision making.   

[Kalasin Jo]

5 hours ago, British Bulldog said:

People wait for 30 minutes to monitor for possible side effects after receiving a dose of the AstraZeneca/Oxford Covid-19 coronavirus vaccine from a “Mobile Vaccination Unit” set up inside a bus .... If that Pic is supposed to be inside a Bus, that's a hell of a BIG Bus ! ????

I thought so too

[dkg224]

Sounds right. My girlfriend is from a village just outside Buriram City. Her family and people in the village are scared to venture into the city because “many COVID in Muang”   She said how many COVID cases being reported there is way less than actual cases 

[ericbj]

8 hours ago, lujanit said:

Uncle Too has an opening agenda.  I never believe the daily figures of positive people reported.

The statistics for Covid "cases" can be very simply reduced with the PCR test by reducing the number of test cycles, which reduces the number of false positives.
This was done in the U.S., after Biden was installed, from as much as 45 cycles to 27 (the highest number of cycles capable of giving a reasonably accurate figure.
Bear in mind also that the PCR test does not look for the virus itself but only what are presumed to be bits of it.

[Dont confuse me]

I think that this is possibly a correct assessment of the present situation in rural areas.

[rbkk]

2 hours ago, stigar said:

Ur rigth.My exgf toldme that.She cant go back to BKK.She have stayed 5-6 months in kalasin now.

Time for Specsavers.

[thaitom]

4 hours ago, Rampant Rabbit said:

Thats interesting did  you  not  have a TB jab when at school?

There's TB in the village I live at.

[Mingomania]

Shocking...

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, ericbj said:

The statistics for Covid "cases" can be very simply reduced with the PCR test by reducing the number of test cycles, which reduces the number of false positives.
This was done in the U.S., after Biden was installed, from as much as 45 cycles to 27 (the highest number of cycles capable of giving a reasonably accurate figure.
Bear in mind also that the PCR test does not look for the virus itself but only what are presumed to be bits of it.

This is another piece of false information from the denialist lobby. PCR machines are calibrated against samples with known quantities of virus particles. So it doesn't matter that different models run a different number of cycles.

 

The COVID-19 PCR Test Is Reliable Despite the Commotion About Ct Values
The people sharing the claim that COVID-19 PCR testing is not reliable because of high Ct values are just amplifying noise.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking/covid-19-pcr-test-reliable-despite-commotion-about-ct-values

 

Fact check: WHO released guidance on proper use of tests; it did not admit PCR tests showed inflated infection numbers

Social media users have been sharing screenshots purporting that the World Health Organization (WHO) released guidance to laboratories and incorrectly saying this was to reduce the positive test result count in PCR (polymerase chain reaction) COVID-19 tests. The social media users claim the WHO’s guidance amounted to an admission that the current PCR tests were inflating COVID-19 infection number. This claim is false. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-who-instructions-pcr-guidan-idUSKBN2A429W

[Trevor Collins]

It seems to me that the doctors in rural communities are correct in their assessment of the situation. They see the fall-out of the exodus from the cities, with patients bringing the virus with them. The doctors need vaccines and support to stop those communities being wiped out and become ghost towns and subsequent economic decline. 

[Spellforce]

 

Source: https://djay.github.io/covidthailand/

[placeholder]

36 minutes ago, Spellforce said:

 

Source: https://djay.github.io/covidthailand/

There's a lot of other great stuff in there including estimates of excess mortality.

[recom273]

6 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

My local market in Kalasin Province has been closed for a second time after positives were found.

Same down here in our village market in KK - Have you noticed when they close one market, the same people all go to the next village and then there is double the number packed in, returning to a catchment area double the size.  ???? 

[steevjee]

10 hours ago, apetryxx said:

Ho Hum, All this hand wringing over a virus is getting tiresome. Can we please talk about something else?

OK ..... have you got your Will prepared? what style of funeral are you after?

[steevjee]

2 hours ago, Trevor Collins said:

It seems to me that the doctors in rural communities are correct in their assessment of the situation. They see the fall-out of the exodus from the cities, with patients bringing the virus with them. The doctors need vaccines and support to stop those communities being wiped out and become ghost towns and subsequent economic decline. 

Sadly support they're just not getting, there's barely any vaccines in the rural areas, some have been waiting months just for a 1st jab of SinoVac, this is why this brave chap has blown the whistle. Local Hero.

[Ginner]

A lot of never knowns now trying to become known as a result of the pandemic. I can remember a doctor tell me many years ago. " if you look hard and long enough you will find an infection in EVERYONE".

[unblocktheplanet]

11 hours ago, alanrchase said:

It's my understanding that the positive ATK test people then get a PCR test to confirm the result and then are added to the daily figure. If you add PCR and ATK figures people will be getting counted twice.

That's not right. Although some of the positive ATKs may choose to get PCR tested, few will. There's very little overlap. There has always been a PCR undercount because they only test walk-ins with symptoms. Similarly, there will be an ATK undercount because they're too expensive for most.                                      

[nattaya09]

Even with a significant amount of testing in the US, the CDC has estimated the actual number of cases to date to be about 4x higher than the recorded number of 44M.

[Used2LuvThailand]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

This is another piece of false information from the denialist lobby. PCR machines are calibrated against samples with known quantities of virus particles. So it doesn't matter that different models run a different number of cycles.

For the limited number of people who actually understand how RT-PCR tests work, your statement here shows that you don't.  The RT-PCR test is, like any other diagnostic test, approved and effective at detecting Covid.  Anyone who says otherwise, is clearly wrong.  But, you want to take the binary, zero-sum attitude towards it.  ANY diagnostic test for ANY disease has an element of false positives and false negatives.  How the tests are run and what devices are used DOES matter.

 

If you're going to comment about the WHO's guidance on RT-PCR tests for Covid, why don't you just go to the source instead of letting third-parties tell you what they're saying?  Here's the WHO's guidance:

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

 

"Careful interpretation of weak positive NAAT results is needed, as some of the assays have shown to produce false signals at high Ct values."

[3NUMBAS]

i might have known someones telling porkies again

[Etaoin Shrdlu]

Mrs. Shrdlu has just advised me that there was a meeting this evening and the PM has decided to abandon the quarantine for fully vaccinated arrivals that have negative PCR tests prior to departure and a negative antigen test on arrival.

 

Waiting to see if this is true.

[Stargeezr]

Hey. apetryxx, just read the world o meter stats for the USA Oct 11 2021  COVID, 733,575 deaths, and Brazil

 has now over 600,000 deaths. and the COVID virus is still killing people all over the world.

   On another topic, it is morning in Canada and the sun has risen for another day, how is that for another 

topic?

Geezer

[CharlieH]

Reported bickering/argument exchange removed.

[stigar]

I just hear that WHO mens that thailand is lying about the real numbers.WHO means 30.000. is the rigth numbers.I will post the link as fast its official.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, Used2LuvThailand said:

For the limited number of people who actually understand how RT-PCR tests work, your statement here shows that you don't.  The RT-PCR test is, like any other diagnostic test, approved and effective at detecting Covid.  Anyone who says otherwise, is clearly wrong.  But, you want to take the binary, zero-sum attitude towards it.  ANY diagnostic test for ANY disease has an element of false positives and false negatives.  How the tests are run and what devices are used DOES matter.

 

If you're going to comment about the WHO's guidance on RT-PCR tests for Covid, why don't you just go to the source instead of letting third-parties tell you what they're saying?  Here's the WHO's guidance:

https://www.who.int/news/item/20-01-2021-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users-2020-05

 

"Careful interpretation of weak positive NAAT results is needed, as some of the assays have shown to produce false signals at high Ct values."

Since it's obvious that any test can be faulty, why bother to mention it at all? I certainly never claimed that either that the machines or the tests taken from them were infallible. Who would ever claim infallibility for any device apart from some guy in a science fiction movie setting himself up for a big fall?

 

Both Reuters and Factcheck.org contacted the WHO to seek out clarification of what it meant by "Careful interpretation of weak positive NAAT results is needed, as some of the assays have shown to produce false signals at high Ct values.". Both offer direct quotes from WHO in explanation.

 

Fact check: WHO released guidance on proper use of tests; it did not admit PCR tests showed inflated infection numbers

When contacted by email, the WHO told Reuters that it did not say the PCR tests for COVID-19 were faulty and that their guidance had been taken out of context. “Since the beginning of 2020, WHO has received 10 reports of problems related to PCR tests for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus which causes COVID-19), including some products listed for emergency use by WHO,” the organization said... 

The WHO confirmed after investigating that the tests were not being used in compliance with instructions provided by the manufacturers.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-who-instructions-pcr-guidan-idUSKBN2A429W

 

Viral Posts Distort WHO Guidance on COVID-19 Tests

In a statement to FactCheck.org, the WHO said it had received 10 reports since early 2020 about some PCR tests providing both false positive and false negative results and that “[a]fter thorough investigation, WHO confirmed that the tests were not always being used appropriately and in accordance with the instructions provided by the manufacturer.” 

“In particular, users in laboratories encountered problems with these tests when they did not apply the recommended positivity threshold — this can result in either false negative results (if the threshold applied is lower) or false positives (if threshold is higher),” the WHO said.

MacKay said that problem “is not a test issue; it’s a human training and experience issue.”

https://www.factcheck.org/2021/01/scicheck-viral-posts-distort-who-guidance-on-covid-19-tests/

 

In short, WHO was not claiming that the machines were inherently faulty. Rather the responsibility for errors lay with technicians not following instructions.