Thai Baht, increasing in value??

[HAPPYNUFF]

It appears, since  the 1st of November, when  some tourism was allowed, the value of the Thai Baht  is increasing.

It is particularly noticeable  for the Australian $, which was trading at 24.567  on  1/11,  yet today  is down  to 23.99 baht,

similarly  the US $  and the UK  pound  appear   lower as well.    Maybe  its  those  thousands and thousands of farangs 

flooding the country and spending those untold huge amounts of foreign currency that are causing this??

[KarenBravo]

Thai trade surplus and a hawkish central bank (according to what I've read).

[ourdon]

Don't know but it's irritating as hell.  I think the Baht is up about 4% on the CAD.

 

Maybe other people believe TAT figures??

 

[Clarkey611]

Something to do with manipulation, possibly?

[KarenBravo]

The fact is, is that exchange rates fluctuate. Long term, most Asian countries currency is strengthening against the US$ as they continue economic development with higher annual growth rates than the West. 

[tonray]

8 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

The fact is, is that exchange rates fluctuate. Long term, most Asian countries currency is strengthening against the US$ as they continue economic development with higher annual growth rates than the West. 

and in spite of growing evidence of 'persistent' inflation, the US Federal Reserve has steadfastly refused to raise interest rates.

[LarrySR]

About 5 weeks ago $1 got you: 33.9BT. Today 32.78Bt

[Chivas]

Baht increasing in strength against the benchmark USD is mainly doing the damage. Partly because of Thailands massive foreign currency reserves but also traders of the opinion that Thailands financial position will further improve with borders re opening

 

Brits not helped by Sterling having weakened against the USD on the other side of currency pairings because the anticipated interest rate rise didnt happen

 

Absolutely nothing to do with manipulation as some claim. All countries are free to "buy" their own currency on forex markets using Foreign currency reserves and Thailand has got a lot of it !

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by Chivas

[ThailandRyan]

45 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

The fact is, is that exchange rates fluctuate. Long term, most Asian countries currency is strengthening against the US$ as they continue economic development with higher annual growth rates than the West. 

Yet the economy in the US and elsewhere is healing quicker than here with everything opened back up and jobs reports indicating large numbers of folks being hired .  Have not seen a jobs report here in Thailand and the economy here is going into an inflation period with goods being upped in prices.  So tell me again how the exchange rate here is declining instead of growing......seems to me that they are trying to use the import and export surpluses which are way down from where they were once before.  The central bank is being very hawkish in my view. US Stocks are up and have been moving so since the last report.  Fed has not made any changes, so again why is the Baht appreciating. To me it is all based upon Speculation and is driven by that in itself.

 

Just in one day:

Edited November 9, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[tonray]

You know...I transferred money last month for a car purchase (which I am having 2nd thoughts about due to immigration's continued assault on my OA Visa)....could probably make a couple grand US (depending on fees) if I reverse transfer if the baht gains a bit more. Hmm....

[david555]

Good news !.... please Teflon baht  keep upping value ???? ,and € please  keep dropping !... as i go transfer out half of my 800K ret.exchange "hostage money " end this month .....as preparing  leaving 3th quarter 2022 leaving Thailand (then take the other half with me..) ????

 

"Google talk" exchange value give now 10 clock morning for € to Teflon bath  37.99 bht????

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by david555

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, tonray said:

and in spite of growing evidence of 'persistent' inflation, the US Federal Reserve has steadfastly refused to raise interest rates.

Yes, I'm surprised the US Fed hadn't raised rates yet with rampant inflation.  It's only a matter of time and yes, this would help to boost the USD....although it might be politically toxic.  

[userabcd]

1 hour ago, Clarkey611 said:

Something to do with manipulation, possibly?

Nope, is there any proof of that?

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Clarkey611 said:

Something to do with manipulation, possibly?

Nonsense.  Look to your home country because that's where the weakness is typically.

[KarenBravo]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet the economy in the US and elsewhere is healing quicker than here with everything opened back up and jobs reports indicating large numbers of folks being hired .  Have not seen a jobs report here in Thailand and the economy here is going into an inflation period with goods being upped in prices.  So tell me again how the exchange rate here is declining instead of growing......seems to me that they are trying to use the import and export surpluses which are way down from where they were once before.  The central bank is being very hawkish in my view. US Stocks are up and have been moving so since the last report.  Fed has not made any changes, so again why is the Baht appreciating. To me it is all based upon Speculation and is driven by that in itself.

 

Just in one day:

Yes, it could well be. I'm not a financial expert. I posted what I read, though I do remember when the Sing$ was over 2.00 for the US$. It went under that many years ago. I also remember the Ringgit (formerly the Malaysian dollar) being weaker, as was the Yen.

 

Besides, I have allowed for current appreciation of 25% on my US$ savings, mainly because of what I have seen over the years.

 

Some Westerners came to Thailand to settle down in 1997 when the Thai Baht took a dive. These folks thought that this exchange rate was the new normal. They were wrong and had to leave eventually.

Looking at the short term (a year, or so) and relying on that for your calculations has proved to be dangerous. The best way is to hope for the best and expect the worst, which has always served me well.

 

There are many factors to examine before someone makes the decision to live here. Unfavourable exchange rate changes is just one of them. Those that ignored that, took a chance living here. If it goes the wrong way, then they have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[worgeordie]

On Superrich just now quoting 44.25 Baht to Pound , with wide

spreads ,44.25  buy     44.70 sell , 

regards Worgeordie

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, Berkshire said:

Nonsense.  Look to your home country because that's where the weakness is typically.

Berkshire you cant post sensible stuff like that.  Lot on Thaivisa still believe the Baht has a "direct" exchange rate with every other currency as opposed to only its benchmark USD

 

I find it mind boggling at times

Edited November 9, 2021 by Chivas

[CharlieH]

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[KarenBravo]

3 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Berkshire you cant post sensible stuff like that.  Lot on Thaivisa still believe the Baht has a "direct" exchange rate with every other currency as opposed to only its benchmark USD

 

I find it mind boggling at times

I think the Thai Baht exchange rate is determined by a basket of currencies. The US$ plus their major trading partners. If memory serves, there's about 10 currencies in the basket.

[sanuk711]

3 minutes ago, KarenBravo said:

I think the Thai Baht exchange rate is determined by a basket of currencies. The US$ plus their major trading partners. If memory serves, there's about 10 currencies in the basket.

Yes of course its the baht on the way to recovering lost ground----- All the doomsayers that were predicting a bigger crash then 97 , do not seem to want to post any more. There will be more dips and peaks --but the country is still recognized by the money movers --Bloomberg etc as being a great place to invest.**

 

Unlike some of the fantasy posts on here that will tell you that all the money exchanges are being manipulated bu a few Hi-So's when they want to buy something overseas....

 

Keeping Covid-19 aside, Thailand has rapidly developed economically over the last few decades. The nation houses most of the modernized citizens and profitable businesses. Exports account for more than two-thirds of Thailand’s GDP. According to the World Bank, Thailand has become the eighth largest economy in Asia. Nearly 40% of the country’s GDP is accounted for by the industrial and service sectors. --

 

https://startupinthailand.com/is-it-worth-investing-in-thailand-this-year/

[ballpoint]

2 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Yes, I'm surprised the US Fed hadn't raised rates yet with rampant inflation.  It's only a matter of time and yes, this would help to boost the USD....although it might be politically toxic.  

The Fed faces a huge dilemma. US debt is now running at around 130% of GDP, and has reached the point where interest payment is now greater than total federal tax returns.  All US taxes, and more, could be spent on servicing debt, with nothing left for infrastructure, federal employee salaries, defence, education, etc etc.

 

Most people see the Fed's choice being recession or not, however it is really between defaulting on debt payments and treasury spending or loosening policy into an inflation spike to inflate the debt lower.  If the Fed does tighten policy, it will do so at a time when it can't even cover interest payments, which will lead to high volatility, an increase in the USD value and the near certain selloff of much of the USD12Trillion in equities owned by foreigners as they scramble for USD.  If it loosens policy and delays tapering QE, then inflation will accelerate, the USD drop, and the bond market remain in the doldrums, however it will be able to continue servicing its debt payments.

 

Indications suggest it may initially try to taper QE before hiking interest rates, leading to a stronger USD and deflation, however this would likely be reversed fairly quickly, as the US can't afford to have the world lose confidence in the trustworthiness of its bonds, which any defaulting on interest payments would certainly do.  Chinese bonds have already overtaken US ones in terms of foreign buyers, with the Fed being the main buyer of US ones by far.  

 

The trillion dollar question is what will they do, and when?  A lot of money will be made or lost on that question.  It's no coincidence that many governments have been buying gold in large amounts lately - including Thailand.  Additionally, Russia is accepting gold in payment for its gas exports, and is immediately converting USD to gold when paid in that currency.  Saudi too, is accepting a mixture of RMB and gold from its biggest oil buyer - China, putting an end to the supremacy of Petrodollars, so it's not too hard to see how central banks see things playing out.  The exchange rate worries of a few expats in Thailand really matter nothing to the far larger issues going forward.

[vandeventer]

22 hours ago, Clarkey611 said:

Something to do with manipulation, possibly?

It will be much stronger when the sky turns black, filled with aircraft full of tourist.

[kevin612]

Yea, this is ridiculous. Baht is rising despite the tourism crisis.

[shackleton]

I did a big transfer. From the UK  last October on speculation once Thailand started opening up to Tourism 

The baht would get stronger I received about 45.33 baht to the pound 

Teflon Thailand comes to mind 

The pound against the USA Dollar  is also not helping 

[thailand49]

Stirring the pot?  Anything to do with the 76 Billion the government needs  for the rice support?????

[CH1961]

On 11/9/2021 at 8:52 AM, HAPPYNUFF said:

Maybe  its  those  thousands and thousands of farangs 

flooding the country and spending those untold huge amounts of foreign currency that are causing this??

I will tell you a financial secret ... 

exchange rates are changing every day. 

 

Even without tourists. 

[david555]

2 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Yea, this is ridiculous. Baht is rising despite the tourism crisis.

The power of Teflon....????????

[ThailandRyan]

28 minutes ago, CH1961 said:

I will tell you a financial secret ... 

exchange rates are changing every day. 

 

Even without tourists. 

You meant when 2 pennies, or two satang get rubbed together they either grow in numbers or because one is unable to reproduce they stay the same or dwindle.....

Edited November 10, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[n00dle]

Not sure where you get your bews but the baht haa been strong since july

[Moo 2]

Something to do with manipulation?? It's as obvious as a tail on a dog's ass!