Germany’s Fourth Covid Wave: ‘A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’

[blackprince]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, in Germany, as in the UK, there's a political angle to it. The AFD, a far right wing political group, has come out against vaccinations. In states where the AFD is strong vaccinations are a lot lower. Vaccinations in general had plummeted.

Just in the past 2 weeks have vaccination levels begun to rise again

I thought the issue here was whether the current German surge is "A pandemic of the unvaccinated", and my point was that while I understand why a German official may make that claim (because unvaccinated infections hit the health services hardest), his claim is not supported by the data. 5 causes have been identified as per my previous post. Lack of vaccination is just one cause.

 

It's well known that German people are traditionally more resistant to vaccination than some other European countries, it's also well known that Germany has a better functioning social democracy than just about anywhere else in the world.

 

Both myself and @justanotherhun are clearly in favour of vaccination - we are trying to go deeper and see what the data says.

 

 

[JustAnotherHun]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, in Germany, as in the UK, there's a political angle to it. The AFD, a far right wing political group, has come out against vaccinations. In states where the AFD is strong vaccinations are a lot lower.

For Germany the claim again is too one sided.

Bavaria, where the AFD is weaker than nation wide is on the lower side of the vaccination score list. 

The low rates in some eastern states are more likely explainable with history. The people there are more sceptical when confronted with such massive political campaigns as we face since Covid. They learned that in decades of living in a communist dictatorship.

Edited November 19, 2021 by JustAnotherHun

[JustAnotherHun]

And one last word to the German ICU situation:

It's true that Germany has one of the highest numbers worldwide. 

And now have a look at the ICU history. Available beds:

1991: ca. 20200

2018: ca. 27500

2020 (summer): ca. 32000

2021 (Nov.19): 24938

[blackprince]

Let's re-think the logic of this. If the German authorities had been able to vaccinate 100% of the population, then it would now be able to claim with complete accuracy that this surge "is a pandemic of the vaccinated".

 

To reiterate, lack of vaccination is not the only cause of the surge in Germany, it's one of five identified in the article I linked to above. Trying to reduce everything to an ideological battle between left and right is reductionist and obscures the truth which can only be found in the detailed analysis of the data.

 

I'll add that data at that level of detail are not available, not even in Germany.

 

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

For Germany the claim again is too one sided.

Bavaria, where the AFD is weaker than nation wide is on the lower side of the vaccination score list. 

The low rates in some eastern states are more likely explainable with history. The people there are more sceptical when confronted with such massive political campaigns as we face since Covid. They learned that in decades of living in a communist dictatorship.

Actually, I looked at those lower rates. The seem directly correlated with  low population density.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

And one last word to the German ICU situation:

It's true that Germany has one of the highest numbers worldwide. 

And now have a look at the ICU history. Available beds:

1991: ca. 20200

2018: ca. 27500

2020 (summer): ca. 32000

2021 (Nov.19): 24938

actually, as Iinked to somewhere else, the number reached as high as 40,000. But as you yourself acknowledged, lots of nurses quit. You blamed low wages. As I pointed out, nurses in the USA are far better compensated than in Germany but are still quitting in droves. Hours that are way too long and watching people die unnecessarily.

[placeholder]

59 minutes ago, blackprince said:

Let's re-think the logic of this. If the German authorities had been able to vaccinate 100% of the population, then it would now be able to claim with complete accuracy that this surge "is a pandemic of the vaccinated".

 

To reiterate, lack of vaccination is not the only cause of the surge in Germany, it's one of five identified in the article I linked to above. Trying to reduce everything to an ideological battle between left and right is reductionist and obscures the truth which can only be found in the detailed analysis of the data.

 

I'll add that data at that level of detail are not available, not even in Germany.

 

 

I don't know why you write  "not even in Germany" As justanotherhun pointed out, germany doesn't even keep track except at the local level, if a patient is vaccinated or not. 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

For Germany the claim again is too one sided.

Bavaria, where the AFD is weaker than nation wide is on the lower side of the vaccination score list. 

The low rates in some eastern states are more likely explainable with history. The people there are more sceptical when confronted with such massive political campaigns as we face since Covid. They learned that in decades of living in a communist dictatorship.

Also, Bavaria is still quite right wing in its voting patterns isn't it? How well do die Linke or the Greens or the Socialist do there compared to other states?

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, blackprince said:

I thought the issue here was whether the current German surge is "A pandemic of the unvaccinated", and my point was that while I understand why a German official may make that claim (because unvaccinated infections hit the health services hardest), his claim is not supported by the data. 5 causes have been identified as per my previous post. Lack of vaccination is just one cause.

 

It's well known that German people are traditionally more resistant to vaccination than some other European countries, it's also well known that Germany has a better functioning social democracy than just about anywhere else in the world.

 

Both myself and @justanotherhun are clearly in favour of vaccination - we are trying to go deeper and see what the data says.

 

 

Are you sure that @justanotherhun is clearly in favor of vaccinations? After he cited Christian Drasten's comment that "We don't have a pandemia of the unvaccinated" I pointed out that this same person said Germany won't get past this pandemic until there is 100% of the populace triply vaccinated.  I asked him if he agreed with this. He replied that he did with certain reservations. When someone plays coy like that, I figure maybe they're concealing something. Here was his reply:

 

"Because I strongly doubt people here are interested in a more differentiated discussion. It's a religious war, based on believe.

You call those who refuse to be vaxxed "foolish and selfish" and you think, they are responsible for the never ending pandemia."

 

Just more refusal to engage with that issue. Maybe if you ask him if he agrees with Drasten's other statements, he might be more forthcoming.

 

Also, when I pointed out that German hospitals are being overwhelmed because of the unvaccinated, he replied that such data isn't collected in Germany on a nationwide basis. Do you think it's  even remotely possible that the situation is different in Germany than it is in countries where such data is collected? That the rate of ICU occupancy and deaths isn't dramatically higher for unvaccinated Germans? And given the high number of the unvaccinated in Germany, that they don't absolutely outnumber the vaccinated respect to ICU units and mortality?

[blackprince]

24 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Are you sure that @justanotherhun is clearly in favor of vaccinations? After he cited Christian Drasten's comment that "We don't have a pandemia of the unvaccinated" I pointed out that this same person said Germany won't get past this pandemic until there is 100% of the populace triply vaccinated.  I asked him if he agreed with this. He replied that he did with certain reservations. When someone plays coy like that, I figure maybe they're concealing something. Here was his reply:

 

"Because I strongly doubt people here are interested in a more differentiated discussion. It's a religious war, based on believe.

You call those who refuse to be vaxxed "foolish and selfish" and you think, they are responsible for the never ending pandemia."

 

Just more refusal to engage with that issue. Maybe if you ask him if he agrees with Drasten's other statements, he might be more forthcoming.

 

Also, when I pointed out that German hospitals are being overwhelmed because of the unvaccinated, he replied that such data isn't collected in Germany on a nationwide basis. Do you think it's  even remotely possible that the situation is different in Germany than it is in countries where such data is collected? That the rate of ICU occupancy and deaths isn't dramatically higher for unvaccinated Germans? And given the high number of the unvaccinated in Germany, that they don't absolutely outnumber the vaccinated respect to ICU units and mortality?

justnotherhun has stated he is triple vaxxed and working on the covid frontline in Bavaria, I have no reason to doubt him.

 

You claim that justanotherhun has refused to engage, but it seems to me that the refusal to engage is actually coming from other people who seem to lack the tolerance necessary for open debate.

 

justanotherhun has provided the most detailed relevant data of any post that I have seen on this thread, apart from my own post that links to a breakdown of each German region.

 

And I'll reiterate, 5 causes of the German surge have been identified.

 

I'd like to go back to the OP post for this thread. It is a factually inaccurate soundbite from an official. 

 

The question is not about ICU occupancy rates, it's about whether this surge is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated". It clearly isn't. And I'd be surprised if Germany collects data suffcient to do this analysis, as no other country does. The questionnaire would need to include;

 

Have you been vaccinated?

When?

Which vaccine?

Have you worn a mask every time you've left the house?

Have you maintained social distance at all times?

Have you attended large gatherings?

etc etc

 

I'm not available for further response on this topic today as I'm quite busy, but I wish you a good day.

Take care out there.

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by blackprince

[placeholder]

21 minutes ago, blackprince said:

justnotherhun has stated he is triple vaxxed and working on the covid frontline in Bavaria, I have no reason to doubt him.

 

You claim that justanotherhun has refused to engage, but it seems to me that the refusal to engage is actually coming from other people who seem to lack the tolerance necessary for open debate.

 

justanotherhun has provided the most detailed relevant data of any post that I have seen on this thread, apart from my own post that links to a breakdown of each German region.

 

And I'll reiterate, 5 causes of the German surge have been identified.

 

I'd like to go back to the OP post for this thread. It is a factually inaccurate soundbite from an official. 

 

The question is not about ICU occupancy rates, it's about whether this surge is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated". It clearly isn't. And I'd be surprised if Germany collects data suffcient to do this analysis, as no other country does. The questionnaire would need to include;

 

Have you been vaccinated?

When?

Which vaccine?

Have you worn a mask every time you've left the house?

Have you maintained social distance at all times?

Have you attended large gatherings?

etc etc

 

I'm not available for further response on this topic today as I'm quite busy, but I wish you a good day.

Take care out there.

 

Well, Christian Drasten, the fellow who justanotherhun quoted so approvingly when he said that it's not a pandemic of the unvaccinated. also said the only way out of this is 100% triple vaccination. I don't think justanotherhun agrees with that. But I could be wrong. How concerning would this pandemic be if that condition were met? Would there be deaths that were comparable to the flu. Of course that's not good, but would it threaten to overrun the public health system. It might still technically be a pandemic, but so what?

Anyway I hope you enjoy your day away while I dutifully slog away here to save humanity from itself. I think I'm nearly there. 

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, SidJames said:

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Apparently, Gibraltar is the favorite topic for your anti-vax internet friends. But, they will forget about it as soon as this transitory spike fades away. 

 

Tell you what, if you are so concerned about Gibraltar, please post an update in 3 months. But you will have to look it up yourself, because your internet friends won't be sending you anything about Gibraltar once this spike ends. 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Danderman123

[catturd]

9 hours ago, SidJames said:

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Also may I bring up the subject of attacks on unvaxxed people filling up ICU beds & ask if we know how many beds are filled with smokers?

I don't hear any government or political party in the world saying that they will ban smokers from working or going to social events & yet smoking is a real choice whereas catching a virus is not for the most part.

Will that only happen when the tax revenues from tobacco  don't meet the costs to health care?

Some countries are saying that they will make these vaccinations compulsory next year so will they also ban smoking?

Disclaimer: I'm double jabbed & used to chain smoke until I gave up 20 years ago.

Well, despite the high vaccination rates and emerging trends, data, knowledge, etc., the covid management experts are beginning to better understand the virus and have generally indicated that vaccines alone cannot, will not stop the pandemic, the reproduction rate R0 is >1 in many countries vaxxed or unvaxxed and I did see somewhere that the many in the fray are beginning to question if herd immunity is possible now. Someone, somewhere stated vaccines alone will not work, NPI is required. (non pharmacutical intervention).

Vaccines effectiveness, especially phizer, is now shown to wane, to dramatically low levels within 6 months time frame and there are the frequently increasing break through infections.

 

So, Gibraltar and other countries, Germany included are responding with intervention consistent with what they feel necessary to combat the spread of covid despite high vaccination rates in the face of decreasing vaccine performance.

[GrandPapillon]

9 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

And one last word to the German ICU situation:

It's true that Germany has one of the highest numbers worldwide. 

And now have a look at the ICU history. Available beds:

1991: ca. 20200

2018: ca. 27500

2020 (summer): ca. 32000

2021 (Nov.19): 24938

There has been a policy of reducing costs for healthcare in EU leading countries for the last 25 years, and keeping ICUs beds to a minimum was part of that policy, even it meant that there were almost 100% full most of the year, officials wanted to make sure they were at capacity, not to waste resources on unoccupied ICUs beds.

 

It does make sense, and was acceptable. Until COVID that is.

 

You would think that in 2 years time, they would have increased ICUs beds just to prudent, but no, hospital administrations obsessed with their cost plan kept closing ICUs beds in late 2020 and early 2021 between COVID waves. You couldn't make that sh*t up ????

 

and of course, nurses are quitting, no matter how much they would be paid. So monthly salary is only one of the reason they quit, it's more likely burnout.

 

You put all this together, and ICUs use will be at or close to 100% capacity. Bad luck for those with COVID and needs ICUs.

Edited November 20, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[JustAnotherHun]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, I looked at those lower rates. The seem directly correlated with  low population density.

That maybe factor.

Also interesting is the difference between northern and southern states. Schleswig-Holstein as an example has a far higher vaxx-rate than Bavaria though the population density is identic. The "new" eastern states are a special case imo

.

Interesting too is that in Bavaria the pressure on people to get vaxxed was and is far more massive than everywhere else in Germany. I could try to speculate how comes, but that would fill many pages ????

[JustAnotherHun]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

actually, as Iinked to somewhere else, the number reached as high as 40,000. But as you yourself acknowledged, lots of nurses quit. You blamed low wages. As I pointed out, nurses in the USA are far better compensated than in Germany but are still quitting in droves. Hours that are way too long and watching people die unnecessarily.

Sure the wages are only one reason, but an important one.  Switzerland has much better wages for medical personal (nurses, physitherapists, doctors etc).

We are about hundred km away from the border but lose specialists each year, though we offer better conditions and much better payments than state run hospitals.

This brain drain started long before Covid.

[JustAnotherHun]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

Also, Bavaria is still quite right wing in its voting patterns isn't it? How well do die Linke or the Greens or the Socialist do there compared to other states?

I don't like the term "right wing" but true, Bavaria's population is more conservative than other parts of Germany.

I do not have enough knowledge of the political scene in other countries, but afaik even the (fast declining!) ruling CSU is more "left" than conservatives in GB or France. Compared to US they are likely more Democrats than Reps, I think.

 

[JustAnotherHun]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

Are you sure that @justanotherhun is clearly in favor of vaccinations? After he cited Christian Drasten's comment that "We don't have a pandemia of the unvaccinated" I pointed out that this same person said Germany won't get past this pandemic until there is 100% of the populace triply vaccinated.  I asked him if he agreed with this. He replied that he did with certain reservations. When someone plays coy like that, I figure maybe they're concealing something. Here was his reply:

 

"Because I strongly doubt people here are interested in a more differentiated discussion. It's a religious war, based on believe.

You call those who refuse to be vaxxed "foolish and selfish" and you think, they are responsible for the never ending pandemia."

 

Just more refusal to engage with that issue. Maybe if you ask him if he agrees with Drasten's other statements, he might be more forthcoming.

 

Also, when I pointed out that German hospitals are being overwhelmed because of the unvaccinated, he replied that such data isn't collected in Germany on a nationwide basis. Do you think it's  even remotely possible that the situation is different in Germany than it is in countries where such data is collected? That the rate of ICU occupancy and deaths isn't dramatically higher for unvaccinated Germans? And given the high number of the unvaccinated in Germany, that they don't absolutely outnumber the vaccinated respect to ICU units and mortality?

I will try to answer to this post, but not now. It takes a biut time and I'm preparing my return to Thailand on Thursday morning (after 20 month!!!)

I respect your way of discussing things here.

Edited November 20, 2021 by JustAnotherHun

[JustAnotherHun]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, Christian Drasten, the fellow who justanotherhun quoted so approvingly when he said that it's not a pandemic of the unvaccinated. also said the only way out of this is 100% triple vaccination. I don't think justanotherhun agrees with that. But I could be wrong. 

Yes, you're wrong.

As long as we do not have better treatment of severe Covid cases, vaccination is the only way. But I am very sure it will not end with the third jab and I'm sure there is no way out of it. Covid will stay as one of many infectious diseases. We have to learn to live with it and we urgently need to calm down and come back to rationality.

 

My sceticism towards Drosten has other reasons, but that would go to far here, I think.

[placeholder]

46 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Yes, you're wrong.

As long as we do not have better treatment of severe Covid cases, vaccination is the only way. But I am very sure it will not end with the third jab and I'm sure there is no way out of it. Covid will stay as one of many infectious diseases. We have to learn to live with it and we urgently need to calm down and come back to rationality.

 

My sceticism towards Drosten has other reasons, but that would go to far here, I think.

I don't think we know enough about the effect of a 3rd vaccination. Also, whether a 3rd vaccination of a different vaccine is the better way to go. Most likely it is. In addition there are new vaccines being developed. One kind, which I've mentioned before, is administered as a nasal spray thus giving increased immunity to nasal cells. Since these are the chief locus, whereby the virus particles are transmitted, that alone could help reduce the R factor to below 1. Also, there is a another vaccine, applied by a patch, that is supposed to stimulate the T cell system. Lots of other ones, too. So we'll see if it's something inherent in the nature of the virus that makes it impossible to subdue, or just a matter of finding the right vaccine or vaccines.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Sure the wages are only one reason, but an important one.  Switzerland has much better wages for medical personal (nurses, physitherapists, doctors etc).

We are about hundred km away from the border but lose specialists each year, though we offer better conditions and much better payments than state run hospitals.

This brain drain started long before Covid.

One thing puzzles me. Germany has one of the highest ratios of ICU beds to population in the world. Yet the occupancy rate even without Covid is very high.

Could this be linked to the fact that Germany has the 4th oldest median age population in the world? And 2 of the countries that surpass it, San Pierre & Miquelon and Monaco, are so small as not to really merit consideration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Apparently, Gibraltar is the favorite topic for your anti-vax internet friends. But, they will forget about it as soon as this transitory spike fades away. 

 

Tell you what, if you are so concerned about Gibraltar, please post an update in 3 months. But you will have to look it up yourself, because your internet friends won't be sending you anything about Gibraltar once this spike ends. 

 

For the Gibraltar guy:

 

Looks like something there is preventing there from being a lot of COVID deaths, or even any rising rate of them lately.

 

 

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/gibraltar/

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[JustAnotherHun]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

One thing puzzles me. Germany has one of the highest ratios of ICU beds to population in the world. Yet the occupancy rate even without Covid is very high.

Could this be linked to the fact that Germany has the 4th oldest median age population in the world? And 2 of the countries that surpass it, San Pierre & Miquelon and Monaco, are so small as not to really merit consideration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

The median age is surely one reason.

The other one is that while ICU capacity between 1991 and 2018 improved by 36%, the standard beds were reduced in the same time period from 660.000 to 498.000, which is a minus of 25%.

It's a financial matter. Quite complicated.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, JustAnotherHun said:

The median age is surely one reason.

The other one is that while ICU capacity between 1991 and 2018 improved by 36%, the standard beds were reduced in the same time period from 660.000 to 498.000, which is a minus of 25%.

It's a financial matter. Quite complicated.

So, it could be the case that some who might ordinarily have been assigned to standard hospital beds get bumped up to intensive care.

[JustAnotherHun]

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So, it could be the case that some who might ordinarily have been assigned to standard hospital beds get bumped up to intensive care.

That is fact and much critized by those who work in the system.

[GrandPapillon]

57 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

The median age is surely one reason.

The other one is that while ICU capacity between 1991 and 2018 improved by 36%, the standard beds were reduced in the same time period from 660.000 to 498.000, which is a minus of 25%.

It's a financial matter. Quite complicated.

indeed, the full capacity happens not because people are less healthy or have issues with their health group, but because the capacity was "optimized" financially, to make sure there was no margin for expensive "reserve" beds.

 

With COVID not going anywhere for the next few years, I think they should start re-thinking this ????

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[GrandPapillon]

56 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So, it could be the case that some who might ordinarily have been assigned to standard hospital beds get bumped up to intensive care.

yes quite possible too, and during COVID, it was also the other way around. Using standard beds for ICUs to increase the ICUs capacity temporarily.

[JustAnotherHun]

19 hours ago, placeholder said:

I don't think we know enough about the effect of a 3rd vaccination. Also, whether a 3rd vaccination of a different vaccine is the better way to go. Most likely it is.

Ugur Sahin  (Biontec CEO) seems to be less optimistic. He claimed yesterday that he expects yearly refreshments of the vaccination.

As long as we do not have medication as we have for other viral diseases to fight severe cases, Covid will stay a huge problem to the society and health service.

There are some promising reports about medical therapies to come in the nearer future.

Edited November 21, 2021 by JustAnotherHun

[GrandPapillon]

the future for COVID is not a 3rd or 4th shot, but remedies and protocols to treat the severe symptoms

Edited November 21, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[cormanr7]

The international edition of der Spiegel (so in English) has just produced a sobering account of what seriously ill covid patients as well as medical staff go through in a German hospital. It is titled 'One thing that we have learned is that COVID is an a**hole' (the stars are mine, the original title has the full word): https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/the-violence-of-the-fourth-wave-one-thing-we-have-learned-is-that-covid-is-an-<deleted>-a-9da60dbf-6311-472a-9fdf-60a6442b1235. And yes, some of the patients were fully vaccinated.

Another recent article briefly touches on potential reasons for the resurgence of Covid in Germany with the interesting title: 'A federation of imbeciles. Anti-vaxxers and politicians drive Germany to the brink'. You can find it here: https://www.spiegel.de/international/coronavirus-in-deutschland-wenn-impfverweigerer-auf-ein-land-ohne-politische-fuehrung-treffen-1636729575-a-1495255a-25af-4b8e-9727-4ea7f26db55f (strangely enough the referral is in German, but the article is in English). It is somewhat provocative, you can read it yourself.  Also keep in mind that Germany's fourth wave is not unique, for instance the Netherlands have also reported record infection numbers in the past days (as have Austria and others).