Thailand praying on domino China..

[Jenkins9039]

See many prominent Thai's hanging their faith on China and Chinese tourism reviving Thailand etc.

 

Its a good point, predominantly speaking Thailand, like most of South East Asia and West Asia have vast exposure to China in everything from Tourism to Manufacturing / Trade etc.

 

As we know the evergrand pickle is a looking likely to be a domino affect, with fear over x billion in debts, but with marginally smaller % repayment calls, however in January we have some 80 billion repayment calls, alongside commodity prices collapsing (copper down 10-15% as an example) etc, you could say the canary has already died in the coal-mine, only its echo hasn't finished reaching the entrance just yet.

 

The exposure to China for the EU is huge, so they're gonna be ravaged, remember the late 80-90's Japanese property boom that sent the neikie to 40k ? it's still not recovered (30k) it takes decades for these sorts of affects to be undone, Thailand itself will be hit like a bulldozer (good news in some respects). 

 

Some 5 trillion $ worth of debt made up of household/commercial and leveraged to the hilt, something that's not pretty, the US itself will coil from it, but not as bad as the EU.

 

People say BTC (i've been in that since 2010) I don't believe that will be the hedge this time around (50/50) I'd say gold but China eats 25% of the demand, Silver but China eats the bulk of that demand also.

 

Same time inflation 5-15% and devaluation of State currencies...

 

Nasty.

 

On the bright side, bar scene prices should go down (not referring to the beers) because people need to eat (entire different discussion, africa is gonna have a problem there next yr...).

[Kwasaki]

19 minutes ago, Jenkins9039 said:

See many prominent Thai's hanging their faith on China and Chinese tourism reviving Thailand. 

Why wouldn't they seeing as Thais came from China. 

[Pravda]

3 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Why wouldn't they seeing as Thais came from China. 

Actually they come from star stuff

[EricTh]

10 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Why wouldn't they seeing as Thais came from China. 

Correct.

 

About 15-20% of Thai citizens are ethnic Chinese, they are the largest ethnic minority although it is not officially reported.

Edited November 22, 2021 by EricTh

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, EricTh said:

Correct.

 

About 15-20% of Thai citizens are ethnic Chinese, they are the largest ethnic minority although it is not officially reported.

Mixed breeding. ????????

[EricTh]

3 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Mixed breeding. ????????

Mixed breeding is 30-40%.

[Speedhump]

What the actual F is 'the evergrand pickle'? 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Speedhump

[Asquith Production]

14 minutes ago, Speedhump said:

What the actual F is 'the evergrand pickle'? 

The Chinese real estate building company Evergrande has found itself in is making waves through the world economy. Evergrande has a collected debt of $305 billion. I take it this is the pickle they got themselves into and refer to.

 

[Speedhump]

3 minutes ago, Asquith Production said:

The Chinese real estate building company Evergrande has found itself in is making waves through the world economy. Evergrande has a collected debt of $305 billion. I take it this is the pickle they got themselves into and refer to.

 

Thank you! So Evergrand misspelt and without a capital letter to denote a company. No wonder I had to ask. I though the article ungrammatical in general. 

[Speedhump]

Just now, Speedhump said:

Thank you! So Evergrande misspelt and without a capital letter to denote a company. No wonder I had to ask. I though the article ungrammatical in general. 

 

[1FinickyOne]

On 11/22/2021 at 1:46 PM, Pravda said:

Actually they come from star stuff

read that in a novel years ago... a moment of fantasy.

[hotchilli]

Chinas push to build everything in every country has backfired... hitting companies like Evergrande hard.

It has no cash-flow, and is in serious debt.

Watch building projects start to slow down or stop around the world.

Why do you think Xi has stopped Chinese from traveling?

Not Covid, he wants to keep Chinese money in China.

[Muhendis]

42 minutes ago, Speedhump said:

What the actual F is 'the evergrand pickle'? 

 

24 minutes ago, Asquith Production said:

The Chinese real estate building company Evergrande has found itself in is making waves through the world economy. Evergrande has a collected debt of $305 billion. I take it this is the pickle they got themselves into and refer to.

 

Thanks for that. There was me thinking it was something in vinegar on a shelf in Makro..... 

[rupert the bear]

15 minutes ago, Speedhump said:

Thank you! So Evergrand misspelt and without a capital letter to denote a company. No wonder I had to ask. I though the article ungrammatical in general. 

ohh a grammar nazi.how tiring,anyone who has the faintest knowledge of the financial world knows what the china property mkts going thru right now and from where it emanates.obviously a first class knowledge of grammar does not allow for a wider knowledge and education of the world around us,see if you can get a refund on all those wasted school fees.

[Speedhump]

18 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

ohh a grammar nazi.how tiring,anyone who has the faintest knowledge of the financial world knows what the china property mkts going thru right now and from where it emanates.obviously a first class knowledge of grammar does not allow for a wider knowledge and education of the world around us,see if you can get a refund on all those wasted school fees.

Oh do bore off. Public writing should be an art, not a struggle to read. God, I hate people like you, uneducated financial bores, the kiss of death at dinner parties. ????

[Isaan sailor]

On 11/22/2021 at 1:42 PM, Kwasaki said:

Why wouldn't they seeing as Thais came from China. 

Not exactly.  From the middle of Isaan down along the Cambodian border to Trat, the population has far less Chinese and loads of Khmer in them.  And they’re not so enamored with the Thai ruling class.

[The Hammer2021]

2 hours ago, Speedhump said:

Thank you! So Evergrand misspelt and without a capital letter to denote a company. No wonder I had to ask. I though the article ungrammatical in general. 

Impenetrable stream of consciousness

[Kwasaki]

10 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Not exactly.  From the middle of Isaan down along the Cambodian border to Trat, the population has far less Chinese and loads of Khmer in them.  And they’re not so enamored with the Thai ruling class.

It is exact in the beginning of Siam look at history the tribe came from China.

As time moves on of course there are a mix. 

 

[Speedhump]

18 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Impenetrable stream of consciousness

JP Donleavy does it better. 

[Isaan sailor]

18 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

It is exact in the beginning of Siam look at history the tribe came from China.

As time moves on of course there are a mix. 

 

Look up the origin of the word, Siam.  It referred to the dark-skinned people of Thailand.  Of course the meaning of the label may have changed today.

[Jenkins9039]

5 hours ago, Speedhump said:

Thank you! So Evergrand misspelt and without a capital letter to denote a company. No wonder I had to ask. I though the article ungrammatical in general. 

It's commentary, not a article lol

[Jenkins9039]

5 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Chinas push to build everything in every country has backfired... hitting companies like Evergrande hard.

It has no cash-flow, and is in serious debt.

Watch building projects start to slow down or stop around the world.

Why do you think Xi has stopped Chinese from traveling?

Not Covid, he wants to keep Chinese money in China.

Total debt commercial (development) is approx 3 trillion, which then snowballs into an additional 2 trillion.

 

Repayments alone jan is 80 billion.

 

Evergrande has been 'giving' properties to their suppliers at 20% of sale value, in return for concluding the developments, then accounting those as 'sales-revenues', so even the 600m revenues last Q are just cooking of the books.

[Fortean1]

I watched a National Geographic show that described spearfishing large fish in a lake or river in western China.  I heard the locals speaking what sounded like Thai to me.  Fascinating.  The Thai speaking people moved south after a drought about 1,000 years ago.  A similar drought in the American Southwest dispersed the Amerindian culture in the Four Corners area. See:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Corners_Monument

[RocketDog]

5 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

read that in a novel years ago... a moment of fantasy.

It means that we and everything on earth is literally stardust. When stars explode they cast out dust that eventually coalesces into planets among other things. I read an interesting book years ago on the birth and death of stars.

[PETERTHEEATER]

6 hours ago, Speedhump said:

What the actual F is 'the evergrand pickle'? 

Look at the headline. It must be to garnish the Domino pizza the Thais are praying for........????

[blackprince]

I'll hazard a guess that the writer is from the US, as according to him the referenced nations are at  much greater risk than the US. In other words  I detect a hint of chauvinism, or nationalism if you will.

 

It wouldn't be hard to create a counter narrative. Check our home nations and China re dept per capita, debt as % of gdp, and you get a different picture.

 

Or from the Financial Times a few weeks ago "Up to a quarter of US equity ETF revenues derived from China" (Exchange Traded Funds).

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8b3e7e01-9a78-4e59-a289-a348dd0a5d3c

 

I don't have the time to check the current US government debt exposure to China, but it's also a major risk for the USA.

 

Then there's the US's global hegemony, which is seriously under threat from China.

 

Just to forestall critics who might say that the US is invincible because the dollar is the leading reserve, I'll add that it's the leading reserve not the only reserve.

 

Not that I'm anti American or pro China. I just prefer balanced narratives.

 

 

 

 

[Jenkins9039]

17 minutes ago, blackprince said:

I'll hazard a guess that the writer is from the US, as according to him the referenced nations are at  much greater risk than the US. In other words  I detect a hint of chauvinism, or nationalism if you will.

 

It wouldn't be hard to create a counter narrative. Check our home nations and China re dept per capita, debt as % of gdp, and you get a different picture.

 

Or from the Financial Times a few weeks ago "Up to a quarter of US equity ETF revenues derived from China" (Exchange Traded Funds).

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8b3e7e01-9a78-4e59-a289-a348dd0a5d3c

 

I don't have the time to check the current US government debt exposure to China, but it's also a major risk for the USA.

 

Then there's the US's global hegemony, which is seriously under threat from China.

 

Just to forestall critics who might say that the US is invincible because the dollar is the leading reserve, I'll add that it's the leading reserve not the only reserve.

 

Not that I'm anti American or pro China. I just prefer balanced narratives.

 

 

 

 

Nope, and the collapse of America is in our interests, most western states have become sub-servant to the US.

 

US is exposed to China, but not as much as the EU, for that matter ASEAN.. 

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, Jenkins9039 said:

Total debt commercial (development) is approx 3 trillion, which then snowballs into an additional 2 trillion.

 

Repayments alone jan is 80 billion.

 

Evergrande has been 'giving' properties to their suppliers at 20% of sale value, in return for concluding the developments, then accounting those as 'sales-revenues', so even the 600m revenues last Q are just cooking of the books.

Wait till Bigus Dickus hears of this

[blackprince]

3 minutes ago, Jenkins9039 said:

Nope, and the collapse of America is in our interests, most western states have become sub-servant to the US.

 

US is exposed to China, but not as much as the EU, for that matter ASEAN.. 

Having an MA in economics and a life time of experience I won't waste too much time in correcting you.

 

I'll simply say that anyone with half an ounce of common sense will know that's it not possible to make such a sweeping generalisation about world economics.

 

I've already provided several examples of how you are wrong. That's enough to disprove your thesis.

 

 

[Jenkins9039]

1 hour ago, blackprince said:

Having an MA in economics and a life time of experience I won't waste too much time in correcting you.

 

I'll simply say that anyone with half an ounce of common sense will know that's it not possible to make such a sweeping generalisation about world economics.

 

I've already provided several examples of how you are wrong. That's enough to disprove your thesis.

 

 

Nothing to disapprove, it's already happening, started in June... 

It makes 08 look like a holiday, and 90's Japan like a field trip... (Japan never recovered btw).

Edited November 24, 2021 by Jenkins9039