Most will not travel over New Year holidays, worry about Omicron variant – Poll

[paulikens]

25% undecided, which is no surprise as they love last minute decisions, so in actual fact it could be more people will travel for the new year than don't.      

[poskat]

10 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

On the roads near me the authorities are busy making the roads even more dangerous. They have started to put a series of 1 meter high concrete posts down the grass verges on the road side. If you get a lunatic coming at you on the wrong side of the dividing line, there’s now nowhere to go. And motorbikes that plough into the grass verges on a fairly regular basis for one reason or another, will now hit concrete posts.

 

and the purpose of these posts is what exactly?

I think a better question might be which politician's family member has a company that does this

[peter zwart]

Good news as i planed a trip to Chiang Mai at the end of the month.

[portlandtree]

12 hours ago, arick said:

I saw only three crashes  from pattaya to Chiayaphum most drove straight into a barrier.. 

sleepy heads

[talahtnut]

12 hours ago, arick said:

I saw only three crashes  from pattaya to Chiayaphum most drove straight into a barrier.. 

As against 4 shunts and a dinged bicycle along 3rd Road.

[natway09]

Never heard so much rubbish in my life.

Even last weekend saw over 2.000 travellers camping  at Doi Pa Wai (in 10 Degrees, It was cold)

A longer holiday will see the highways clogged as usual

[arick]

11 hours ago, talahtnut said:

As against 4 shunts and a dinged bicycle along 3rd Road.

I prefer when the vehicle  is hanging from the power lines gives me something ro look up at

[Stargeezr]

Most posters know that Thailand driving will not improve for our lifetimes as there has to be

a total attitude change, and law enforcement plus heavy fines etc.  to make drivers

any better. Most of us remember when seat belts were introduced and there was lots of resistance

to that from those who did not like change. Thailand may get better in the next 100 years, but 

I know that I will not be around that long. Good luck to all over the holidays. Seasons Greeting

to you all.

[ozimoron]

On 12/13/2021 at 11:36 AM, MarcelV said:

Well, it is the 'plurality' of people that want to stay at home. The Thai must read that as meaning most.

Not surprising really since that's what it does mean.

[ozimoron]

On 12/13/2021 at 9:39 AM, Gsxrnz said:

Since when did 40% mean "most".

 

 

On 12/13/2021 at 11:08 AM, newnative said:

Beat me to it.  Another lousy, very misleading headline.

 

On 12/13/2021 at 1:26 PM, Jiggo said:

Only 11% wrong....

It's accurate. The Thai bashers have put their foot in it again. There are 25% who are undecided, Clearly they will either travel or not and it's safe to say they can be split along the lines of the respondents who had decided one way or the other. Approx 54% of those who have decided are not going to travel. If we add that percentage of the undecided to those who will not travel, the total is easily above 50% which is a plurality. Thanks for playing.

Edited December 14, 2021 by ozimoron

[newnative]

7 hours ago, ozimoron said:

 

 

It's accurate. The Thai bashers have put their foot in it again. There are 25% who are undecided, Clearly they will either travel or not and it's safe to say they can be split along the lines of the respondents who had decided one way or the other. Approx 54% of those who have decided are not going to travel. If we add that percentage of the undecided to those who will not travel, the total is easily above 50% which is a plurality. Thanks for playing.

    'Clearly' we have no idea what the undecideds will do and it's not 'safe to say' what they will do.  What we do clearly have is 3 sets of figures that we do know to work with.  The headline writer should have taken one of those clear figures and developed an accurate headline that reflected the poll.  Such as: 'One quarter of those surveyed have still not decided if they will travel over the new year holidays.'   And, slightly above 50% does not equate to 'most' in my book.  Clara cut the cake roughly in half and gave one piece to John and one to Mary.  Who got 'most' of the cake?

[ozimoron]

27 minutes ago, newnative said:

    'Clearly' we have no idea what the undecideds will do and it's not 'safe to say' what they will do.  What we do clearly have is 3 sets of figures that we do know to work with.  The headline writer should have taken one of those clear figures and developed an accurate headline that reflected the poll.  Such as: 'One quarter of those surveyed have still not decided if they will travel over the new year holidays.'   And, slightly above 50% does not equate to 'most' in my book.  Clara cut the cake roughly in half and gave one piece to John and one to Mary.  Who got 'most' of the cake?

what book are you reading? Above 50% really is "most" in any books I have read. Statistically, it is reasonable to assume that the figure is comfortably above 50%. You are falsely accusing the article's authors as being stupid. They got it right. One thing is for sure, slightly less than 50% is not most.

Edited December 15, 2021 by ozimoron

[newnative]

31 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

what book are you reading? Above 50% really is "most" in any books I have read. Statistically, it is reasonable to assume that the figure is comfortably above 50%. You are falsely accusing the article's authors as being stupid. They got it right. One thing is for sure, slightly less than 50% is not most.

      I think the word 'most' is a confusing, imprecise term at best.  "I love you the most!"  Ok, but how much exactly is that?  51% or 99% could both be 'most' with your usage but there is a big difference between the two.   I don't think I was the only poster who questioned its use in this context.   As I said before, I think a more accurate headline would have been one that highlighted one of the poll numbers.  

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, newnative said:

      I think the word 'most' is a confusing, imprecise term at best.  "I love you the most!"  Ok, but how much exactly is that?  51% or 99% could both be 'most' with your usage but there is a big difference between the two.   I don't think I was the only poster who questioned its use in this context.   As I said before, I think a more accurate headline would have been one that highlighted one of the poll numbers.  

It may have been clearer but is was not inaccurate and most certainly not "very misleading". If you had to choose whether most people would or would not travel then simple math shows that most would not travel. Seems you just can't admit that the knee jerk reaction to bash Thai journalism was not only misplaced but wrong, "very" wrong.

[newnative]

16 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

It may have been clearer but is was not inaccurate and most certainly not "very misleading". If you had to choose whether most people would or would not travel then simple math shows that most would not travel. Seems you just can't admit that the knee jerk reaction to bash Thai journalism was not only misplaced but wrong, "very" wrong.

    Not bashing Thai journalism--my remarks would have been the same if it was a NY Times headline.  Nice you at least admit the headline 'may have been clearer...'.   That's the point.  Instead of using a vague 'most', why not use the actual poll numbers?  Then you could have this headline:  'Poll shows 40.57% will not travel  over new years, 25% undecided.'  Then, the reader can decide if 40.57% is 'most'.  

[MarcelV]

9 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Not surprising really since that's what it does mean.

No, it doesn't. See the difference between plurality and majority. A majority is always a plurality, but not the other way around. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by MarcelV

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, newnative said:

    Not bashing Thai journalism--my remarks would have been the same if it was a NY Times headline.  Nice you at least admit the headline 'may have been clearer...'.   That's the point.  Instead of using a vague 'most', why not use the actual poll numbers?  Then you could have this headline:  'Poll shows 40.57% will not travel  over new years, 25% undecided.'  Then, the reader can decide if 40.57% is 'most'.  

Not pointing at you but I just get sick of the continual bashing of the Thai press, police, local government and the perceived general incompetency of everything Thai. It is a developing country and we should just be thankful that's it's not over regulated like own countries. There is a pervasive "bwana" mentality and superiority complex among expats that I find offensive. Several comments about this article demonstrated that in my opinion. At least have the grace to admit that the headline was not in the least bit inaccurate if not to your liking.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, MarcelV said:

No, it doesn't

In this case it was both a plurality and most. basic statistical analysis can be applied to demonstrate that most people were not likely to travel.

[newnative]

39 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Not pointing at you but I just get sick of the continual bashing of the Thai press, police, local government and the perceived general incompetency of everything Thai. It is a developing country and we should just be thankful that's it's not over regulated like own countries. There is a pervasive "bwana" mentality and superiority complex among expats that I find offensive. Several comments about this article demonstrated that in my opinion. At least have the grace to admit that the headline was not in the least bit inaccurate if not to your liking.

     Sorry, no. I found the headline to be inaccurate, and more than 'the least bit', which is why I posted in the first place.  With a large 25% undecided, we don't really know whether 'most' will end up traveling or 'most' will end up not traveling.  With those poll numbers, we just don't know.  It's a tossup.  Could be lots will make a last minute decision to travel.  Or, not.  Again, we don't know.   (And, no, let's not blithely guess and split the difference with the undecideds.)  Had the poll numbers been 55% no, 35% yes, and 10% undecided, the headline would have made sense.   

    Rounding up, in this poll around 41% said no, around 35% said yes.  To boldly state that 'most will not travel' when there is only a 6% difference between the two and a very large undecided is not good journalism, whether we are here or in Timbuktu.   

[ozimoron]

5 minutes ago, newnative said:

     Sorry, no. I found the headline to be inaccurate, and more than 'the least bit', which is why I posted in the first place.  With a large 25% undecided, we don't really know whether 'most' will end up traveling or 'most' will end up not traveling.  With those poll numbers, we just don't know.  It's a tossup.  Could be lots will make a last minute decision to travel.  Or, not.  Again, we don't know.   (And, no, let's not blithely guess and split the difference with the undecideds.)  Had the poll numbers been 55% no, 35% yes, and 10% undecided, the headline would have made sense.   

    Rounding up, in this poll around 41% said no, around 35% said yes.  To boldly state that 'most will not travel' when there is only a 6% difference between the two and a very large undecided is not good journalism, whether we are here or in Timbuktu.   

We do know, all things being equal, it is incredibly unlikely that the split of undecided will be statistically different from the respondents who had made up their mind. This simple statistical analysis was apparent to the author of the article. Your analysis that somehow the split will be significantly different or unknowable is simply flawed from a statistical point of view.

Edited December 15, 2021 by ozimoron

[newnative]

18 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

We do know, all things being equal, it is incredibly unlikely that the split of undecided will be statistically different from the respondents who had made up their mind. This simple statistical analysis was apparent to the author of the article. Your analysis that somehow the split will be significantly different or unknowable is simply flawed from a statistical point of view.

    '...unlikely...'. 'all things being equal'.  Not exactly precise.   In the end, as I said, we don't know for certain, especially with these poll numbers.  So, just present the poll numbers and nothing else.  Headline:   41% say no, 35% yes, and 25% undecided over new years holiday travel travel--poll.   Present only the facts in the headline, not conjecture, not guesses, not certainties when there is no certainty ('most' 'will not'), etc.    Leave any uncertainties to the article itself, where a fuller evaluation of the poll numbers can be presented, and an explanation of how the large number of undecideds might be expected to break.