Thai banks' foreign tourist predictions for 2022 deal "rosy view" govt and TAT hammer blow

[bangon04]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

In all seriousness the Thai government should be now looking at a whole new approach to getting tourism re-started. Dropping the pass farce for starters, and in my own view should be paying for tourists rt-pcr and first night quarantine hotel - paying out say 2,000 baht for this when the tourists will like be spending say 100,000 on their holiday makes economic sense to me.

you seem to be assuming that the Thai Government actually wants foreigners to come to Thailand.

[Albert Zweistein]

3 hours ago, cape said:

Rhat is about what I would guess.

We don't see the detail of the calculations. But one thi g: those returning fathers and businessmen will have returned, and what's left? A handful of tourists.

What is important is for the govt to publish its detailed policies and plans. For example, it wants to restrict tourism to the very rich, they will be few in number, but they'll spend a lot, and not interested in s*x tourism. So, what is the govt doing to find work for six or seven million?

Before shutting down an important sector of the economy, its best to have already started another . No?

 

So in your point of view the very rich are not interested in sex ? Does the name Epstein ring a bell ?

[spidermike007]

All predictions made by anyone connected with this hooligan administration need to be ignored and treated as the garbage lies they are. 

 

SCB is likely closer to the mark. My predictions are 1.2 million tourists in 2022, if and only if all restrictions are eased, other than double Vax. As many as 2.5 million in 2023, and five years from now, under 5 million arrivals a year.

 

Thailand has been forgotten, none of the issues plaguing the industry and the nation long before Covid have been addressed, and the sanitization, homogenization, and purification of the place only makes Thailand less appealing. Also, the extreme timidity by cowards like Cha Cha and Anutin is coming at a high price. They just don't get it. They don't get much. 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by spidermike007

[Chelseafan]

I really wish that TAT senior personnel got fired when their outlandish claims don't come to fruition - I don't think they have ever hit the mark. Perhaps if their jobs were on the line then they might think twice before making such bold statements.

I get that they have to be optimistic but it just makes them look like idiots.

 

I'd also love them to publish their data to back up their nonsense

 

 

[SGD]

Nobody ever believed the made up 40m number, or the previous numbers for prior years, all similarly made up.

It was all just bluster, never fact.

[Chelseafan]

4 hours ago, cape said:

Rhat is about what I would guess.

We don't see the detail of the calculations. But one thi g: those returning fathers and businessmen will have returned, and what's left? A handful of tourists.

What is important is for the govt to publish its detailed policies and plans. For example, it wants to restrict tourism to the very rich, they will be few in number, but they'll spend a lot, and not interested in s*x tourism. So, what is the govt doing to find work for six or seven million?

Before shutting down an important sector of the economy, its best to have already started another . No?

 

Absolutely.

 

Let's assume in monetary spend that 1 "rich" tourist is the equivalent of 20 "poor" tourists

 

That's 19 tourists who don't need to be fed & watered

That's 19 beds lost.

That's 19 taxi rides lost.

There's the loss of bars/nightlife/entertainment

 

I could go on...

 

That rich tourist doesn't spend money that trickles through the economy. It go's to multi-nationals and the governement via tax.

 

[GrandPapillon]

36 minutes ago, Albert Zweistein said:

So in your point of view the very rich are not interested in sex ? Does the name Epstein ring a bell ?

The rich get better sex at better terms in their home countries, no need to travel the world to get laid ????

[spidermike007]

58 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

I really wish that TAT senior personnel got fired when their outlandish claims don't come to fruition - I don't think they have ever hit the mark. Perhaps if their jobs were on the line then they might think twice before making such bold statements.

I get that they have to be optimistic but it just makes them look like idiots.

 

I'd also love them to publish their data to back up their nonsense

 

 

You are discussing a concept called accountability. It is something that does not seem to exist, at the government or police level. 

 

At this time the army administration is above the law. Any and all laws, it seems. The youth need to somehow change all that. Not an easy task. But, possible. Let's hope. 

[Chelseafan]

16 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

You are discussing a concept called accountability. It is something that does not seem to exist, at the government or police level. 

 

At this time the army administration is above the law. Any and all laws, it seems. The youth need to somehow change all that. Not an easy task. But, possible. Let's hope. 

 

Couldn't agree more.

[Blumpie]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

All predictions made by anyone connected with this hooligan administration need to be ignored and treated as the garbage lies they are. 

 

SCB is likely closer to the mark. My predictions are 1.2 million tourists in 2022, if and only if all restrictions are eased, other than double Vax. As many as 2.5 million in 2023, and five years from now, under 5 million arrivals a year.

 

Thailand has been forgotten, none of the issues plaguing the industry and the nation long before Covid have been addressed, and the sanitization, homogenization, and purification of the place only makes Thailand less appealing. Also, the extreme timidity by cowards like Cha Cha and Anutin is coming at a high price. They just don't get it. They don't get much. 

 

 

I agree your numbers could very well be true.  Chinese are not coming back to Thailand anytime soon.  They have a zero covid policy there.  And that is a huge driver of tourism, like it or not.  And China just doesn't care - I know they are happy having their people stay put with domestic tourism.   They will certainly be among some of the last to appear in Thailand.  

[Led Lolly Yellow Lolly]

21 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

They will certainly be among some of the last to appear in Thailand

Every cloud...

 

 

 

[peter zwart]

TAT will say it was all a misunderstanding from the banks. What these banks say is only true when no tourist will come. 

[Albert Zweistein]

3 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

The rich get better sex at better terms in their home countries, no need to travel the world to get laid ????

You missed my point........................

[ExpatOilWorker]

12 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

As of 2016, the National Statistical Office reported there were more than 10,000 registered hotels. Of the number, 37% were in the South, 25% in the central provinces, 18% in the North, 12% in the Northeast and 7% in Bangkok. The office reported that hotels operated more than 457,000 rooms across the country.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1154987/thailand-length-of-stay-of-foreign-hotel-guests/

In 2019, an average length of stay for international hotel guests was around 9.26 days. In that same year, there were almost 40 million tourists who visited Thailand, with the majority of tourists coming from east Asia region.

 

457000 * 0.12 = 54840 hotel beds occupied per day. 

54840 * 365 = 20016600 per year

20016600 / 9, 26 = 2,16 Million.

The difference can then only be Dometic Tourism.

 

Cross check:

400000 international arrivals in 2021 * 9.26 days = 3704000 occupied beds.

 

457000 *365 = 166,8 Million 

total bed capacity

3,7 * 100 / 166,8 = 2,2 % 

Occupancy rate of the hotels by international tourists

 

That correlates well with the decline in international arrivals with minus 99% (base year 2019).

 

Personally, I do not believe that domestic tourism will be 10% of the total occupancy rate of 12% in 2021.

 

The actual occupancy rate is likely to be even lower

 

Thailand have close to a one million hotel rooms and most people stay 2 pax/room.

"Industry Outlook Hotel Industry" https://www.krungsri.com/en/research/industry/industry-outlook/Services/Hotels/IO/io-hotel-21

 

[mikebell]

TAT should be dissolved immediately; it is merely a vehicle for self-important, unintelligent freeloaders to spout the sort of nonsense the Government wants to hear.  Next to go should be the RTP, a more inept and bungling set of villains you should avoid at all cost.  There will be little improvement till these institutions are scrapped.

[LivingNThailand]

17 hours ago, John Drake said:

It's been said on this forum probably thousands of times before: the single most enticing thing about coming to Thailand in the past was the immediacy of everything. Get on a plane and go, be visa exempt, and be able to extend with ease.

Back in the day, when I would go to BKK for business, I could book a trip two days out.   Unfortunately I don't think that will ever return in the short time and maybe not in the long term, but it sure was nice.  Now I live here so I don't have to worry about it.  But it would be nice to go somewhere and return to Thailand as a resident without the hassles, that's for sure.  Some of my neighbors and friends have had to do the Phuket Sandbox and it was a pain.  

[Stargeezr]

The way that Omicron variant has Europe doing lock downs, and airlines are stopping their

flight routes, I predict that Thailand banks are too optimistic as well. Some countries are  

saying not to travel internationally unless it is a necessary trip, and essential as well.

  2022 may not be much of a year for travel until September. By then more will be known about this latest variant

and we will know how the 3rd booster is doing to keep people from being too sick. I think that all unvaccinated

people should lose their medical benefits and have to pay from their pockets for any hospital stays.

The unvaccinated anti Vaccinators should be totally treated as Lepers.

 

[GrandPapillon]

The European lockdowns are overly ridiculous, and starting to make the anti-vaxx crowd the ones who got it from the start

 

we have been lied to, vaccination was the way to normal, and now it's back to square one, and there is no end to it

 

you have to wonder about the true motivations behind all this, because it's definitely not for the benefits of the average person

[ExpatOilWorker]

19 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Cross check:

400000 international arrivals in 2021 * 9.26 days = 3704000 occupied beds.

 

457000 *365 = 166,8 Million 

total bed capacity

3,7 * 100 / 166,8 = 2,2 % 

Occupancy rate of the hotels by international tourists

If 400k tourist occupied 2.2% did the 40 million tourist in 2019 occupy 220%?

Your numbers don't add up.

[LivingNThailand]

50 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

40 million tourist in 2019

40 million arrivals.  Not tourists.  I was counted 4 times in 2019 because I came and went out of the country 4 times.  That does not equal 4 tourists, only 1 expat.

Edited December 19, 2021 by LivingNThailand
correct grammer

[lapamita]

because of the pandemic , i was not return to thailand , even i still hv 2 aparts there.

now i fly cambodia first ,wit the option for return to thai, if in january restrctions fall ( mean no mask and nightlife open) , if not i fly back from cambodia home

 

but what i want tell the last  years , i was even fed up from thai , so i bought property in turkey, and i still now very pleased with it and happy..... its much better than i  was thinking even during winter.

 

In thailand i was at the end only still loving girls and nightlife  , but thats all , the fun  the easyness.

 

but the world is bigger and the last 3 years open my view for other destinations

 

I just returned from a central asian country , my first holiday during covid , the flight was only 300 usd, their are ski resorts ( excellent destination for ski) , summer biggglakes and mountains ( up to 6500mtr).... in the main city their was just a few expats   ,  but we had fun  fun and fun.

Super sexy girls , partly well educated , partly bitchy....... excellent foods !!!!!    and prices  for ex. cityapart citycenter no taxi needed  80qm  ff excellent mountain views  27 usd , Veall rolls or Veal knuckles on mashed potatos 5$ in highclass restaurnat , Beer in disco 2 $, Taxi via yandex never more than 2 usd inside city,cigarettes 1,50 usd malboro, No girlybars  ( or not to recommand) ,grils overnight 50-100 usd tall slimm educated nice ones ( except some russian high class ethnics who want more) , escort 1 hr girl 30 usd via whatapp

and the best ...entry no covid tests no mask wearing even in airport and no mask seen anywhere in the city

only bad  just when i arrived 2 week before the goverment make a smoking ban , only alloud in disco and limited number of pubs , not  a mass desination but something diffrent , need english and even better a litte russian  speaking.

i will go in spring again

before covid already discoverd madagascar ,and was there 3 times pre covid and hopefully this summer again

 

really thailand is nearly out of my head after 30 years there, the thai virus  what i hold until 2010 , is juts gone out of my body

[GrandPapillon]

12 minutes ago, lapamita said:

I just returned from a central asian country

sounds interesting, what country is that?

[StayinThailand2much]

On 12/18/2021 at 4:56 PM, GrandPapillon said:

it's hopeless, 2022 will be like 2020 and 2021

It will all depend on Omicron and possible other variants, and 2022 looks like it's going to be a bit of the 'same old', certainly for the first half of the year.

Edited December 19, 2021 by StayinThailand2much

[tomacht8]

7 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

If 400k tourist occupied 2.2% did the 40 million tourist in 2019 occupy 220%?

Your numbers don't add up.

True. 

You found a newer source (krungsri). The bed capacity in 2019 was around 800,000.

(The net effect of this is an increase national supply of hotel rooms from 540,088 in 2013 to 784,118 in 2019, or average annual growth of 6.5%)

 

I tried to check/ proof the mentioned hotel occupancy rate of 12% over the whole year of 2021.

(They also predicted that Thai hotel occupancy would be 34% compared to this year's dismal 12%)

 

And now I doubt this 12%, at all much more!

 

The discrepancy in bed capacity can already be found in the basic data between the national statistics office and the KrungSri source.

Edited December 19, 2021 by tomacht8

[VBF]

6 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

sounds interesting, what country is that?

I'd like to know too......

[Blumpie]

12 hours ago, LivingNThailand said:

Back in the day, when I would go to BKK for business, I could book a trip two days out.   Unfortunately I don't think that will ever return in the short time and maybe not in the long term, but it sure was nice.  Now I live here so I don't have to worry about it.  But it would be nice to go somewhere and return to Thailand as a resident without the hassles, that's for sure.  Some of my neighbors and friends have had to do the Phuket Sandbox and it was a pain.  

I could pick out many more comments to refer this comment too.  It's not easy to get to Thailand, and much of the gobbley-gook that they release on their website if for the sugar junkies - they want to be told that things will return to normal, when you and I know it's not going to happen anytime soon.  

 

Thailand is a destination for a wide variety of people, and the surge in tourism over the last few years has been from real tourists, not people wanting an extended break from the cold.  (these are tourists too, but different)  

 

I find it hard to lure any of the 2 groups back, but you never know.  Frankly, places go in and out of fashion like the waves of the sea.  Look at Indonesia, Vietnam, so many other places that can give you an extended break from the cold.  And cheap too.  Unfortunately Thailand isn't as cheap as it once was.  WE can deal with that but it does have an effect.  

 

40 million tourists will have to be made up of real holiday makers from regional countries - I wish them the best with that.  

[Blumpie]

Just now, VBF said:

I'd like to know too......

IF he was smart he wouldn't say anything, LOL!  

I know a few countries there that are great, but you womanizers would have some serious problems. ????  

[VBF]

1 minute ago, Blumpie said:

IF he was smart he wouldn't say anything, LOL!  

I know a few countries there that are great, but you womanizers would have some serious problems. ????  

I resemble that remark! ????

However, @lapamita implies that there are "the targets of our desire" in whatever country he is posting about......   I WANNA KNOW (pretty please! ????)

[ExpatOilWorker]

10 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

True. 

You found a newer source (krungsri). The bed capacity in 2019 was around 800,000.

(The net effect of this is an increase national supply of hotel rooms from 540,088 in 2013 to 784,118 in 2019, or average annual growth of 6.5%)

 

I tried to check/ proof the mentioned hotel occupancy rate of 12% over the whole year of 2021.

(They also predicted that Thai hotel occupancy would be 34% compared to this year's dismal 12%)

 

And now I doubt this 12%, at all much more!

 

The discrepancy in bed capacity can already be found in the basic data between the national statistics office and the KrungSri source.

12% occupanncy rate for 2021 sound about right, the local push for tourism did move a lot of people around.

I know of a few major hotels that are 60-70% occupied now and this is straight from the GM. This is in Bangkok of course,  the islands are still hurting.

Using your earlier number of 9.2 nights stay and the below data for 2019, you get 1.8 pax/hotel room which actually makes sense. 

 

 

 

[lapamita]

14 hours ago, Blumpie said:

IF he was smart he wouldn't say anything, LOL!  

I know a few countries there that are great, but you womanizers would have some serious problems. ????  

no serious problems of safety  , yes  i know more non safety countrys , but them i not mentioned