Omicron panic decimates Thai tourism "high season" - foreign tourists cancel, events scrapped, flights stopped, insurance woes

[tlcwaterfall]

52 minutes ago, Andycoops said:

Don't forget there's another variant just around the corner, as like all flu type viruses.

And the next variant may be even milder than Omicron. 

[LarryB]

Omicron hasn't caused all the cancellations, all the FEAR MONGERING around omicron has caused it. While case numbers are climbing drastically, hospital admissions are not. This is the variant everyone should get, to end the fear and the continuous jabbing that a lot of governments are trying to force their citizens into. South African studies show that immunity gained from contracting omicron protects against delta too. No more jabs! 

[bang saen guy]

Rumour has it that the only time the General gets a stiffy is when he has a new variant with which to use to control. Not sure if it makes his wife happy

[brucegoniners]

There was never going to be a high season this year. The new quarantine restrictions made sure of that. 

 

But even prior to that tourists weren't coming.

 

Just like losing baseball teams, wait til next year...

[Mr Derek]

16 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Hospitals in many places are filling up. In some places there is little ICU capacity left.

We're talking about omicron, right? People with omicron reportedly have no need for ICU. For example: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/delhi-doctor-gives-insight-into-health-of-omicron-patients-oxygen-and-icu-need-101640017278499.html. 

Only those with underlying health conditions need hospital attention: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10346119/First-Australian-Omicron-study-shows-ICU-unvaccinated-Delta-strain.html.

 

There's enough evidence now. We need to let omicron spread both to generate natural immunity and to supplant Delta and the possibility of worse variants in future (though I don't believe there will be any worse variants). Ordinary influenza is already being supplanted so with omicron we could actually come out of this ahead. Reported symptoms of omicron actually sound a lot less severe than for ordinary influenza. Those people should indeed be kept out of hospitals.

Continued fearmongering is female thinking. There, I've said it. We all need to strap on a pair and live with it. Omicron is the best news possible.

[barney42bb]

5 hours ago, thaiman said:

Thailand reaps what it sows!

Absolutely it does... But many will not lose sleep over it... or Omicrap.... Governments and Media have spun CON-VID to create this shambolic mess. Som Nom Na.

[dinsdale]

5 hours ago, stigar said:

Well..they been warned allready.Close down this country rigth now.UK(just england)with 130.000 new cases..france 180.000 new cases.USA 580.000 new cases.And thailand only about 3000 new cases????

Come on..start testing and tell the real truth.

So? How many in hospital and how many dying. In the beginning people were saying it's all big phama. I strongly disagreed. Vaccines saved millions of lives. Now, however, it might well be the case. I will say again. "DON'T PANIC." 

[monty1412]

5 hours ago, ozfarang said:

But hospital admissions are not increasing dramatically.

Australian cases nearly doubled over night but hospital admissions only up slightly and ICU and ventilator case were down marginally.

If Thailand follows a trajectory similar to Australia then their health system will cope

exactly.... 110% spot on , same trend seen in South Africa..

[Neeranam]

As we are all expats, we should be rejoicing-cheap hotels, deserted beaches ????

[Sheryl]

8 minutes ago, Mr Derek said:

We're talking about omicron, right? People with omicron reportedly have no need for ICU.

That is simply untrue.

 

People with Omicron - from the information so far at hand - are much less likely to require ICU care than those with earlier variants, but a very small percentage do, and the sheer volume of total patients in countries where it is surging is such that it can indeed overwhelm capacities if the surge is large enough and rapid enough.

 

 

 

 

[Pdavies99]

They are cancelling because of 7 day+ quarantine costs, preflight testing costs, post-flight testing costs, 7-day testing costs, return flight testing costs and all the extra costs and time involved!

 

Omicron has little to do with cancellations!

[Sydneydave]

This study from Denmark shows that vaccine effectiveness against omicron wanes after 4 weeks. Beyond 4 weeks, vaccinated people are more likely to get omicron than unvaxxed. Could this be the ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) that we were warned these vaccines could cause?

[Cherrytreeview]

22 minutes ago, brucegoniners said:

There was never going to be a high season this year. The new quarantine restrictions made sure of that. 

 

But even prior to that tourists weren't coming.

 

Just like losing baseball teams, wait til next year...

 

5 minutes ago, Pdavies99 said:

They are cancelling because of 7 day+ quarantine costs, preflight testing costs, post-flight testing costs, 7-day testing costs, return flight testing costs and all the extra costs and time involved!

 

Omicron has little to do with cancellations!

Could not be put simpler.

Know of a guy who cancelled euro disney for him and the family next year.

Travelled this year but just can't be bothered with the hastle.

To the best of my knowledge, euro disney doesn't even throw in a possible hospital stay as a bonus.

[Destiny1990]

4 hours ago, ebean001 said:

The high speed train to China from Chiang Mai to be completed 2017. Ooops, that did not happen but China now has a train to Laos. my question is this...China has almost 30,000 klms of track. If Thailand had connect with China, it would have been connected to nearly all people in China...including ex-pats. What would Thailand be like today?  

The same because these trains would not be allowed to cross the Chinese border.

[VBF]

3 hours ago, Sheryl said:

The issue for the UK is the impact on health services. Although hospitalizations with Omicron are shorter in duration and less often lead to death, the numbers of hospitalizations are rising so rapidly that the system could soon reach or exceed capacity. At the same time, staffing levels are affected by large numbers of medical personnel themselves falling ill.

 

There is a genuine need to try to slow down the rate of spread in the UK at this point to ensure that the system can handle it and people in need of health services (for all illnesses) don't lack access.

 

Slow down the rate, not halt the spread - the second is impossible.

 

 

Agree with much of that especially the impact on health services for issues other than Covid.

 

But do you not think that with Omicron being so much less serious, people with it should not be needing to isolate at all? If that was the case, staffing levels would be far less affected.

Here in UK everyone I know has had 3 vaxxes and most people aren't worried about catching Covid at all....otherwise why did we bother getting vaccinated?

In other words, for a vaccinated population, neither the rate nor the spread matters much. (IMO)

 

Just to illustrate what I'm saying, I thought I might have Covid - got a nasty dose of a cold or flu which has laid me low for a few days. Because I was meeting with friends the other night, i took a test - no Covid and the friends I was meeting already have colds so no problem there either - we all agreed to meet regardless of colds. None of us even considered going to hospital with a cold, any more than we would have done 3 or 4 years ago.

 

We really need to start saying "I'm vaccinated so move on" and go back to ignoring colds and flu.

[Bangkok Barry]

5 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

if this variant is as deadly as Delta

It's been in countless publications for at least a week that it isn't, and is much more like a flu virus as it doesn't get into the lungs. It shows no sign of being as deadly as Delta and requires far less hospitalisation. It merely spreads much faster as it is estimated to be 70% more contagious.

[Tony125]

5 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

People aren't stupid.

We had the story of the Danish family yesterday, with the daughter being taken off to hospital for failing a test.

Area 39, a very popular bar near Treetown, Soi Bukahow, Pattaya has started ATK testing to get into the premises. They are not accepting proof of vaccination apparently.

Editor of the Pattaya News confirmed that if you fail that ATK test, an ambulance will be called and you will be taken to hospital.

Who in their right mind is going to travel 6,000 miles to put up with heads you win, tails your taken to hospital.

 

 

It has been reported that rapid covid tests (ATK) are not accurate at detecting Omicron

 

Rapid Covid tests not as accurate with Omicron

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rapid-covid-tests-not-as-accurate-with-omicron-us-regulator/ar-AASdIoX

 

Omicron Is 80% Less Likely To Hospitalize Than Prior COVID-19 Strains, Study Finds

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/omicron-is-80percent-less-likely-to-hospitalize-than-prior-covid-19-strains-study-finds/ar-AAS3WTV?li=BBnb7Kz

Edited December 29, 2021 by Tony125
correction

[Mike 1]

Well I never, I came to Thailand on the 12th November for 2 months,after the first 30 days had nearly expired I went to the immigration office to extend for another 30 days, a got a visa extension until May, nothing to go home to at the moment so I'll just enjoy myself with the wife and family here, sometimes things work out for the better 

[VBF]

3 hours ago, sezze said:

 

 

The new variant does seem to be a lot less dangerous , from all reports so far , and also the report of Thai specialist is also confirmed as Omicron does affect more upper area rather then the lungs . This with the vaccination and booster does not scare many people from traveling anymore . We are as good protected as we can be against the heaviest form of Covid . What does scare people is : quarantines , hospital admissions when not needed , huge bills , being stuck in a country which is about to be locked it for unknown time ( many people still need to go work after their holiday ) .

We will see how it turns out , but with the low vaccination number in Thailand , i can imagine it still can create a lot of havoc , in all of the regards i just said  . It is a very big gamble to go Thailand right now ( or in the coming 2-3 months ) , for different reason then before but with exactly the same result .

Absolutely!  ????

[Sunderland]

If the numbers are going to be cooked anyway, it's likely Phuket.

 

Before the tourist invasion in November/December, I would guess 50% of foreigners wore masks. Now, around 10%.

 

Gotta feel sorry for all the Thais working in the tourist industry who are duty bound to wear masks 24-7 while their foreign customers shout, yell and cough in their faces. 

 

Masks may well do very little against the spread of Omicron, but it would be nice if everyone were allowed to enjoy the benefits of fresh air and not just arrogant tourists.

[greenhornfarang]

6 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

All we can do is get vaxxed, mask up and hide,

 

Forever

[Isaan sailor]

I’ve seen this movie before—and it doesn’t end well.  How about pulling the Baht down a bit more, as long as you now have the extra time?

[VBF]

2 hours ago, Spock said:

Lots of Americans are unvaccinated which makes a big difference to the consequences of people catching the virus. Australian case numbers are really high but over 90% in the states affected are vaccinated. High vaccine rates make a big difference to the severity of the infection.

As the American health system usually requires payment, then to the unvaccinated there I say "your fault if you have to spend a lot of money to get well"

In the UK where the NHS treats everyone who is sick, I feel that the time has come to refuse to treat unvaccinated morons, or at the very least make them pay for treatment. I cannot comment on Aus  - I don't know how their system works.

[wasabi]

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

Hospitals in many places are filling up. In some places there is little ICU capacity left.

ok

Edited December 29, 2021 by wasabi

[Tracyb]

Is anyone surprised?

[wasabi]

15 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

It's been in countless publications for at least a week that it isn't, and is much more like a flu virus as it doesn't get into the lungs. It shows no sign of being as deadly as Delta and requires far less hospitalisation. It merely spreads much faster as it is estimated to be 70% more contagious.

True but mass hysteria and paranoia are now taken for fact while governments play out the political theater and measures to control what can't and doesn't need to be controlled any longer.

[wasabi]

1 hour ago, Toany said:

It is the Thai Government and their outdated quarantine that is scaring tourists away.  The news of people losing the Test and Go gamble on a negative test and losing is spreading.

It reminds me of a recent Thai headline that stated Hotels in dire straights because foreigners fail to come. Shifting the blame to people not coming when they made it all but impossible to come to Thailand.

[geisha]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

But...but...but...didn't the tourism minister, Pipat, tell us just a few days ago that Omicron was having no effect at all on tourist bookings? How is this possible, a minister of the government either telling porkies or else being poorly informed, lol.

The health minister changed the rules the week before Christmas ! What do they expect now, nearly everyone got scared of loosing all their bookings, PCR tests / flights/hotels/ etc and cancelled. 
Thailand is constantly changing the rules, they have absolutely no idea that foreigners have to plan holidays, take time off work, book flights etc, and then the country they wanted to visit announces panic every bloody day, and cancels potential plans. Mr Anutin has shot himself in the foot ! 
We have all seen the small percentage of foreign travelers C positive on arrival. Do a second and third test at the tourists expense in a *hospitel * not in a state quarantine ward. They are now reducing the stay in EU to 7 days isolation., The only big worry for everyone is an overload of patients for hospital  beds and not enough ventilators.  The statistics this morning from Marseille France General, huge hospital, has 86% of its newer Covid patients non vaccinated , average age 57, the others are the very old and the very sick. 81 deaths since 15 of November. 
 What does that tell you. Children are the best vectors, spreading in school and then through their families, so they are now being mass vaccinated. The new Omicron is quickly being accepted as being much less dangerous and does, in most cases, not need hospitalisations. The two biggest errors of Thailand is not vaccinated early enough, you should by now all have had your booster. The other is panic news and closing down the country bringing its folk to their knees. How shameful to see photos and reports all over the western news of queues of people spending all day in the sun waiting for food donations. And all that while in other news they want to start a Space program ? They better get their act together as otherwise they will see their tourist dollars going down the drain for a good couple of years. 

[Sheryl]

29 minutes ago, VBF said:

Agree with much of that especially the impact on health services for issues other than Covid.

 

But do you not think that with Omicron being so much less serious, people with it should not be needing to isolate at all? 

It depends oj how likely they are to have contact with highly vulnerable people. In the case of hospital staff they are very likely to have such contact.

[gejohesch]

6 hours ago, stigar said:

Well..they been warned allready.Close down this country rigth now.UK(just england)with 130.000 new cases..france 180.000 new cases.USA 580.000 new cases.And thailand only about 3000 new cases????

Come on..start testing and tell the real truth.

Start testing : yes, that's a big part of the problem.

 

Just looked at graphs produced on a daily basis by Our World in Data (comments on sources further below).

 

The first 2 graphs show the share of daily tests that are positive (with a few selected countries), the second one showing Thailand in bold green. The declining trend since Aug-Sept is apparently very encouraging. It is much below countries such as S. Africa, the USA, Germany, France for example. Furthermore, it does not show the steep increase of other countries due to Omicron.

 

So, this seems to be a good story for Thailand.... but : the 2 next graphs show the daily new tests per 1,000 people for the same countries, the second graph showing Thailand in bold blue. One can only reflect on the situation with the given information, obviously, but this is worrying. Thailand appears to be at the very bottom. Not only that, but also there is no evidence of any increased testing with the arrival of Omicron (see Denmark, UK, Portugal, France by contrast). 

 

The second set of graphs takes away the confidence one would have in the "good news" of the first set. More testing is probably required to know where one stands and be able to react adequately. I would qualify that a bit, though, seeing that Germany and S. Africa testing seems to be very low too. But at least these countries do not seem to be totally asleep, with a hint of recent  increase in testing.

 

With all that, I cannot be reassured about what's happening in Thailand.

 

There is obviously an entire discussion considering the relative population ages, the climate, the vaccination status, the mortality rates etc. etc.

 

Sources : Our World in Data is based in the Oxford University and has links with John Hopkins University, WHO and a few other institutions. It's among the best source of information one can find.

Edited December 29, 2021 by gejohesch