Prolonged Ukraine war to see Thai inflation at 6.3%, a stalled economy and a possible downgrade

[placeholder]

7 hours ago, Saanim said:

Who would like to suffer more than the Russians? (and the Americans)

 

Germany resists EU ban on Russian gas as bloc prepares new sanctions

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-moving-step-by-step-toward-russian-energy-embargo-habeck-2022-04-04/

 

I'm not sure what your English is supposed to mean here. If it means that the Germans will suffer more than the Russians from an energy embargo, that's nonsense.

[Saanim]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

I'm not sure what your English is supposed to mean here. If it means that the Germans will suffer more than the Russians from an energy embargo, that's nonsense.

Did you understand my English so, that the Germans - when resisting the EU ban on Russian gas - will suffer more than the Russians from an energy embargo? In fact, the Russians are used to a certain suffering.  But they will not surely suffer under heating problem.

 

And also the Germans will not suffer when they will further buy the gas for whatever currency.  To don more sweaters as they were advised would not help them, nor to the powerful industry that needs lot of gas as well.

 

But whether it helps to Americans is to be seen.

 

     

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Saanim said:

Did you understand my English so, that the Germans - when resisting the EU ban on Russian gas - will suffer more than the Russians from an energy embargo? In fact, the Russians are used to a certain suffering.  But they will not surely suffer under heating problem.

 

And also the Germans will not suffer when they will further buy the gas for whatever currency.  To don more sweaters as they were advised would not help them, nor to the powerful industry that needs lot of gas as well.

 

But whether it helps to Americans is to be seen.

 

     

 Do you firmly believe that Russia will walk away from this war and destruction unscathed and that they will become the darlings of the world and their money will become a worldwide peg?  You have lost the plot.  Sure the EU will take some hits but in the end they will survive, now can you say the same about Russia and then the arrest and prosecution of Putin in the Hague for the crimes he and his troops have committed.....

[Saanim]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

 Do you firmly believe that Russia will walk away from this war and destruction unscathed and that they will become the darlings of the world and their money will become a worldwide peg?  You have lost the plot.  Sure the EU will take some hits but in the end they will survive, now can you say the same about Russia and then the arrest and prosecution of Putin in the Hague for the crimes he and his troops have committed.....

Do you have something on EU ban on gas? 

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Saanim said:

 

Do you have something on EU ban on gas? 

Many of the EU countries are scared of what kind of a hit they would take if they cut off Russia completely, as 40% of their fuel comes from Russia, However, taking the hit now and suffering the pain they may feel will only strengthen their resolve in finding other ways to remove themselves from the dependency they have created.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-europe-balking-ban-russian-energy-83866065

WHY CAN’T EUROPE CUT OFF RUSSIAN ENERGY LIKE THE U.S. DID?

 

The United States imported little oil and no natural gas from Russia as it's become a major producer and exporter of oil and gas thanks to fracking. Europe had some oil and gas deposits, but production has been declining, leaving the 27-country EU dependent on imports.

Of the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that Europe imports from Russia every year, 140 billion comes through pipelines crossing Ukraine, Poland and under the Baltic Sea. Europe is scrambling to get additional supplies by ship in the form of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, but that can’t make up for losing gas by pipeline.

LNG is also much more expensive, and suppliers are maxed out. While some European countries are well-connected to LNG terminals, such as Spain, and new projects are in the works in places like Greece and Poland, the infrastructure isn’t there to get supplies to the rest of Europe. Building LNG import terminals and pipelines to connect the gas to places that need it can take years.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ban-russian-oil-gas-imports-will-be-needed-some-point-eus-michel-2022-04-06/

 

The European Union will have to introduce measures against imports of Russian oil and even gas at some point as a way to pressure Moscow to stop its invasion of Ukraine, the chairman of EU leaders Charles Michel said on Wednesday.

"I think that measures on oil and even gas will also be needed sooner or later," Michel told the European Parliament.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/eus-michel-ban-on-russian-oil-gas-imports-needed-sooner-or-later-live-updates/a-61373251

The European Union is considering a ban on Russian coal after the atrocities in Bucha, but a total fossil fuel import ban could follow.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Tuesday the EU was working on a plan to end purchases of Russian fossil fuels altogether.

 

However, You seem to also think the US will suffer but that is far from the truth......

[Saanim]

18 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Many of the EU countries are scared of what kind of a hit they would take if they cut off Russia completely, as 40% of their fuel comes from Russia, However, taking the hit now and suffering the pain they may feel will only strengthen their resolve in finding other ways to remove themselves from the dependency they have created.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-europe-balking-ban-russian-energy-83866065

WHY CAN’T EUROPE CUT OFF RUSSIAN ENERGY LIKE THE U.S. DID?

 

The United States imported little oil and no natural gas from Russia as it's become a major producer and exporter of oil and gas thanks to fracking. Europe had some oil and gas deposits, but production has been declining, leaving the 27-country EU dependent on imports.

Of the 155 billion cubic meters of gas that Europe imports from Russia every year, 140 billion comes through pipelines crossing Ukraine, Poland and under the Baltic Sea. Europe is scrambling to get additional supplies by ship in the form of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, but that can’t make up for losing gas by pipeline.

LNG is also much more expensive, and suppliers are maxed out. While some European countries are well-connected to LNG terminals, such as Spain, and new projects are in the works in places like Greece and Poland, the infrastructure isn’t there to get supplies to the rest of Europe. Building LNG import terminals and pipelines to connect the gas to places that need it can take years.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ban-russian-oil-gas-imports-will-be-needed-some-point-eus-michel-2022-04-06/

 

The European Union will have to introduce measures against imports of Russian oil and even gas at some point as a way to pressure Moscow to stop its invasion of Ukraine, the chairman of EU leaders Charles Michel said on Wednesday.

"I think that measures on oil and even gas will also be needed sooner or later," Michel told the European Parliament.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/eus-michel-ban-on-russian-oil-gas-imports-needed-sooner-or-later-live-updates/a-61373251

The European Union is considering a ban on Russian coal after the atrocities in Bucha, but a total fossil fuel import ban could follow.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Tuesday the EU was working on a plan to end purchases of Russian fossil fuels altogether.

 

However, You seem to also think the US will suffer but that is far from the truth......

Actually, there are only some 40 countries joining the sanctions. The others do not want to be sanctioned by those sanctions. 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Saanim said:

Actually, there are only some 40 countries joining the sanctions. The others do not want to be sanctioned by those sanctions. 

But given that these 40 nations constitute most of the economically advanced countries in the world gives it an outsized impact. These countries are responsible for over  50% of the world's GDP.

https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/SANCTIONS/byvrjenzmve/

Edited April 7, 2022 by placeholder

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, Saanim said:

Actually, there are only some 40 countries joining the sanctions. The others do not want to be sanctioned by those sanctions. 

Still trying to prove that your view is correct and that Russia will not be inconvenienced even a little....keep going the rope your leaving behind will be enough to finally ensnare you're views.

[Airalee]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:04 PM, Bkk Brian said:

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

 

Russia’s Central Bank has just jacked up interest rates to 20%

February 23.  The day before the war started.  78.65 rubles to the dollar.

April 3.            The date of your proclamation of doom for the ruble.  85.74 rubles to the dollar

Today.             Whoops!  74.44 rubles to the dollar.

 

 

[ozimoron]

A part of the recovery can be explained by a stronger financial position that Russia finds itself in thanks to a steep rise in revenues from oil and gas exports and a sharp drop in imports. 

 

Experts say the rest of the rebound is a result of the ruble being artificially propped up by the Russian central bank through capital controls.

"The currency moves don't represent the fundamentals of Russia.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/putin-tactics-drive-rebound-in-russian-ruble/a-61363334

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, Airalee said:

February 23.  The day before the war started.  78.65 rubles to the dollar.

April 3.            The date of your proclamation of doom for the ruble.  85.74 rubles to the dollar

Today.             Whoops!  74.44 rubles to the dollar.

One has to wonder whether the sanctions that would 'soon begin to bite' would overpower the 1,000,000,000 Euros a day they get from Germany for their petrochems!

[Airalee]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:04 PM, Bkk Brian said:

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

 

Russia’s Central Bank has just jacked up interest rates to 20%

It’s been almost 6 weeks now.  Just “checking back” as requested.  
 

How is your currency doing against the dollar and baht?

 

 

 

 

 

[Stygge]

On 4/4/2022 at 5:46 AM, Saanim said:

One more commodity hasn't been mentioned (actually not coming from Ukraine): Uran and his processing.

 

I know, it will not be so drastic for Thailand (not having yet nuclear power plants) as it will be for many other countries with their developed nuclear industries depending on Russian supplies.

 

And similarly, also the above mentioned commodities are not so drastically needed for Thai export that is more focused on consumer products.

 

Whether steel production (is here any?) will suffer by a nickel lack deficiency? 

Or by not so many wheat for Thailand?  (How much wheat does Thailand need?)   

 

 

 

When I see your point I get the visual image of Bagdad Bob falling from the top of a high rise building and cheerfully calling out that everything is fine while passing the second floor.

[Stygge]

On 4/7/2022 at 5:40 AM, Saanim said:

Actually, there are only some 40 countries joining the sanctions. The others do not want to be sanctioned by those sanctions. 

Putin made a friendly, special military operation on Ukraine. The dollar made a special economical operation on the ruble. When the dollar is finished operating on the ruble the ruble will be changed to kopek for exchange purposes me thinks.

[Airalee]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:04 PM, Bkk Brian said:

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

 

Russia’s Central Bank has just jacked up interest rates to 20%

Just checking in once again.

 

As you were.

 

 

[placeholder]

35 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Just checking in once again.

 

As you were.

 

 

It's not a sign of the Russian economy's strength that the ruble has risen so much. Quite the contrary.

[Airalee]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:04 PM, Bkk Brian said:

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

 

Russia’s Central Bank has just jacked up interest rates to 20%

Just keeps on winning

 

 

[Airalee]

On 5/20/2022 at 11:30 PM, placeholder said:

It's not a sign of the Russian economy's strength that the ruble has risen so much. Quite the contrary.

That wasn’t the point of my post.  Try to keep up.