Reframing US-China rivalry – A Thai perspective

[webfact]

US President Joe Biden meets with China’s President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP)

 

OPINION | by Chalanlak Chanwanpen

 

It’s tortuous trying to navigate the current hostility between the two great superpowers, the US and China, as the Russian-Ukraine war continues to rage. Worse still, it is highly likely that the war will drag on, as neither Washington nor Moscow are in the mood for conciliatory gestures. Under the circumstances, Thailand and the rest of the world have to adapt and adjust their domestic and foreign policies to align with the overarching shifts. This time it is extremely difficult. Stakes are high for all concerned, near and far.

 

Both superpowers have longstanding close ties with Thailand. Indeed, in the divided world, it is rare to find such countries that can maintain wholesome relationships with both. Throughout the Cold War, this nation of 70-million was successfully engaged with all major powers without jeopardising its economic and social development. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, however, the global environment has changed significantly, with greater unpredictability due to new emerging powers asserting themselves. These trends have been further intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic slowdown and the rise of nationalism, to name but a few.

 

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Unlike the rest of Southeast Asia, Thailand is an independent country, which has never come under colonial rule. Throughout its history, Thailand has had its own survivalist approach to staying out of trouble. So far, so good. Today, though, all sorts of troubles are coming into the region and they are more complicated and difficult to handle, as there are additional actors with different interests and strategies. Therefore, to survive the current terrain, Thailand requires additional skills and manoeuvring power.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/reframing-us-china-rivalry-a-thai-perspective/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-05-02

 

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[RandiRona]

For all practical purposes, Thailand is in the Xi's camp , it's just Papa Xi isnt allowing citizens to visit is the issue.

[hotchilli]

Thailand picks and chooses who to trade with in the west, and as far as it goes it does well with exports and little in the way of free trade imports.
However it is joined at the hip with China, as history shows ties go back hundreds of years, Thailand is half owned and half run by China, and that will never change.

[Isaan sailor]

Let the young Thai ladies weigh in on this. Would they prefer a Russian, Chinese, or American husband?  In Isaan, the choice is clear.

[Sato]

2 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Let the young Thai ladies weigh in on this. Would they prefer a Russian, Chinese, or American husband?  In Isaan, the choice is clear.

It is rather that the chinese man and not the Isaan woman who weigh on this as the chinese man will not marry a woman who has a much lower social status than the man and he certainly wouldn't marry a prostitute.

[vandeventer]

3 hours ago, RandiRona said:

For all practical purposes, Thailand is in the Xi's camp , it's just Papa Xi isnt allowing citizens to visit is the issue.

Thailand shouldn't be in any camp, it should be Thailand first, a country that looks after it's people and respects all non aggressive countries.

[Isaan sailor]

51 minutes ago, Sato said:

It is rather that the chinese man and not the Isaan woman who weigh on this as the chinese man will not marry a woman who has a much lower social status than the man and he certainly wouldn't marry a prostitute.

True enough, although your statement assumes all Isaan women are prostitutes.  Not so, by a long shot.

[Sato]

4 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

True enough, although your statement assumes all Isaan women are prostitutes.  Not so, by a long shot.

Sorry, was not my intention at all

[Eric Loh]

Thailand like the rest of ASEAN countries are looking consistency and sustained healthy relationship with superpowers. US political instability hurt their image. Withdrawing from TPP, tariffs war, forcing allies to pay for security and cozying to Kim are missteps that will not fair well in terms of foreign policy consistency. I am sure Thailand like the rest of ASEAN factored that in their relationship with the superpowers. 

[chilly07]

4 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Let the young Thai ladies weigh in on this. Would they prefer a Russian, Chinese, or American husband?  In Isaan, the choice is clear.

Or all three!

[ftpjtm]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Today, though, all sorts of troubles are coming into the region and they are more complicated and difficult to handle

The situation today is more complicated than the situation during WW2 when Thai PM Phibun signed a very popular armistice with Japan which was ignored by much of Thailand's overseas delegations? 

 

I don't think so.

[jacko45k]

On 5/2/2022 at 8:16 AM, Isaan sailor said:

Let the young Thai ladies weigh in on this. Would they prefer a Russian, Chinese, or American husband?  In Isaan, the choice is clear.

You did not give them the option of a Thai boyfriend?

[spidermike007]

On 5/2/2022 at 10:24 AM, Sato said:

It is rather that the chinese man and not the Isaan woman who weigh on this as the chinese man will not marry a woman who has a much lower social status than the man and he certainly wouldn't marry a prostitute.

It may be hard for you to fathom, but the vast majority of Issan women are not prostitutes. 

 

And it does not matter whether or not a Chinese man is hung up on petty class structure. They are not wanted as husbands, by most Thai women. Game over. Disqualified. 

[Pattaya Spotter]

When elephants fight the mice get trampled ???? ???? 

[ChC1]

First, China has to be a super power to make this statement valid.

 

So is China a super power?

 

Economically, its GDP is second the the world. Impressive, until you divided it by per capita. Then we should really squeeze water out of this GDP sponge. We all know China's numbers are hugely inflated, and China lives in debts to expand its GDP by investing in huge infrastructure project. If you take that out, China is no better than an average Eastern European country. Sure, cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai and even Wuhan is impressive. Yet, it is not what China is about. Never to mention the poverty widespread in middle and western provinces. There are large areas in China that is worse than Isan or Laos if you take away the shining government buildings, brand new highways that no cars ran or the railway that average person can not afford a ride on.

 

Secondly, does number 2 in GDP means super power? We can count UK, Japan, Germany...etc. Those country once as number 2 in GDP terms. Would you call those country super power?

 

Third, would size determine a country as super power? Brazil, Russia, Indonesia...would you call them super power?

 

Fourth, would nuclear or military presence determine a country as super power. Look at Russia, massive nuclear reserves. After the blunder in Ukraine and its struggle, would you call Russia a super power today? North Korea throws missiles all the time, do you consider North Korea a super power?

 

I can go on to list many aspects to question why China is not a super power.

 

Most importantly. China could not survive should USA go all in on sanctions that seen on Russia recently. Without the access in SWIFT and World Bank/IMF loans, China is effectively another Venezuela on steroid. Sure, China is important on many aspects like natural resources and the sheer power of spending on a collective term.

 

To make my point, 55 Vietnams combined together will be a super impressive country in GDP terms (and just bigger than China), but each individual Vietnam (sorry Loas and Vietnam) is still poor on average. Without controlling the world's actual economic power (SWIFT, Sanctions, Purchasing power...), China can never be a super power like USA or even UK that is heading the now (almost) defunct Commonwealth. The illusion that China is a super power is over blown. China is a respectful player in regional politics and it has an admirable military presence that its neighbours are only afraid of. NATO is a super power, G7 is a super power, Japan is a almost super power without a big military...Even Russia is still a smallish-super power over its influence over central Asia, and if Russia shuts its energy supply to China it would bankrupt China overnight (exaggerate here but the point is valid).  

 

The choice is very clear for Thailand. Do you want to be friend with the real superpower of the world, or follow the illusions in your head? And I hope sincerely that the Thai elite has better understanding on world order than this article quoted.

[Rimmer]

Off topic troll post removed

[zzaa09]

On 5/1/2022 at 5:50 PM, hotchilli said:

Thailand picks and chooses who to trade with in the west, and as far as it goes it does well with exports and little in the way of free trade imports.
However it is joined at the hip with China, as history shows ties go back hundreds of years, Thailand is half owned and half run by China, and that will never change.

Indeed.

So......what's the debate, analysis and discussion about and continues on unabashed?

 

What it really is - the traditional and imaginary cultural comparative/superlative related, as it's been the historic mark forever.

[Stygge]

On 5/5/2022 at 12:06 PM, ChC1 said:

First, China has to be a super power to make this statement valid.

 

So is China a super power?

 

Economically, its GDP is second the the world. Impressive, until you divided it by per capita. Then we should really squeeze water out of this GDP sponge. We all know China's numbers are hugely inflated, and China lives in debts to expand its GDP by investing in huge infrastructure project. If you take that out, China is no better than an average Eastern European country. Sure, cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai and even Wuhan is impressive. Yet, it is not what China is about. Never to mention the poverty widespread in middle and western provinces. There are large areas in China that is worse than Isan or Laos if you take away the shining government buildings, brand new highways that no cars ran or the railway that average person can not afford a ride on.

 

Secondly, does number 2 in GDP means super power? We can count UK, Japan, Germany...etc. Those country once as number 2 in GDP terms. Would you call those country super power?

 

Third, would size determine a country as super power? Brazil, Russia, Indonesia...would you call them super power?

 

Fourth, would nuclear or military presence determine a country as super power. Look at Russia, massive nuclear reserves. After the blunder in Ukraine and its struggle, would you call Russia a super power today? North Korea throws missiles all the time, do you consider North Korea a super power?

 

I can go on to list many aspects to question why China is not a super power.

 

Most importantly. China could not survive should USA go all in on sanctions that seen on Russia recently. Without the access in SWIFT and World Bank/IMF loans, China is effectively another Venezuela on steroid. Sure, China is important on many aspects like natural resources and the sheer power of spending on a collective term.

 

To make my point, 55 Vietnams combined together will be a super impressive country in GDP terms (and just bigger than China), but each individual Vietnam (sorry Loas and Vietnam) is still poor on average. Without controlling the world's actual economic power (SWIFT, Sanctions, Purchasing power...), China can never be a super power like USA or even UK that is heading the now (almost) defunct Commonwealth. The illusion that China is a super power is over blown. China is a respectful player in regional politics and it has an admirable military presence that its neighbours are only afraid of. NATO is a super power, G7 is a super power, Japan is a almost super power without a big military...Even Russia is still a smallish-super power over its influence over central Asia, and if Russia shuts its energy supply to China it would bankrupt China overnight (exaggerate here but the point is valid).  

 

The choice is very clear for Thailand. Do you want to be friend with the real superpower of the world, or follow the illusions in your head? And I hope sincerely that the Thai elite has better understanding on world order than this article quoted.

I think the definition of a superpower is one that inserts overwhelming economical, cultural and military power globally.
Only US qualifies on all three. But most people just seem to consider military power and then China is still just a regional player. Sure, with the clear ambition to grow fast, but still. Taiwan is essential for China to have a free way to the high sea. Culturally it´s still just a regional power, mainly south east asia. Economically i would say China is a superpower though, and this factor is the most important factor to grow military in the future.
The future of it´s economical growth is uncertain though. Population decline, ageing population, bad covid strategies, great and costly pollution problems, high debt problem, especially on real estate making up for almost a third of it´s economy, and trade wars with the west will hamper economical growth considerably in the future.
The only power that can take the hegemony away from the US in the near future is US itself (Trump division, less democracy and self chosen withdrawel from the world scene.)
But there is enough countries in the world with authoritarian leadership (Thailand) that are more comfortable with trading with other authoritarian countries to ensure China´s future trade. No pesky questions of democracy and human rights asked.

[MarcB]

On 5/5/2022 at 2:46 AM, jacko45k said:

You did not give them the option of a Thai boyfriend?

Or Japanese or Korean.

Favoured by most girls, as I hear, coz they're clean, polite, Asian, and hot money.