What is your plan when China invades Taiwan?

[Lemsta69]

48 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Relocation is a moot point anyway isn't it?  Won't have time to relocate and if full blown conflict the plants and factories will be toast anyway if Ukraine is a relevant example.  

 

So...if I follow my own logic...that China's move on Taiwan is a given...and then factor in Taiwanese semi-conductor production is toast...long term disruption a given...but perhaps for good...then we should be discussing what happens if the semi-conductor tap gets turned off.

 

Another major inflationary pressure for sure...but what are the other consequences?

without semiconductors we're pretty much screwed. if Taiwan falls into CCP hands then I guess we'll eventually have to make peace with them and dance to their tune.

 

i don't either Taiwan or the US would consider blowing the factories before the PLA takes over as that would probably trigger a severe response from the CCP. but I could be wrong, US hubris gets in the way quite often and damn the consequences.

[Lemsta69]

10 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

The bases on the Solomons and Fiji have little strategic importance.  To far from anything in the event that real conflict breaks out...and no hope of resupplying.  I am of course assuming that there are no covert missile silos or other CCP shennanigans.

I was thinking that they want to set up close to us in order to be able to make quick strikes on high-value targets like Pine Gap, Nurrungar and Tidbinbilla. 

[Adumbration]

1 minute ago, Lemsta69 said:

I was thinking that they want to set up close to us in order to be able to make quick strikes on high-value targets like Pine Gap, Nurrungar and Tidbinbilla. 

Perhaps....in days gone by.  But now they have ICBM capability to strike all of the targets you have listed from mainland China.

[Captain Monday]

Over the recent time I never believed China would invade Thailand within the next 10-20 years. Old China Hand Kissinger doe not think so either.

 

They follow a longer term vision that includes the belt and road initiative, an archipelago of man made South China Sea bases, and military alliances with impoverished Pacific island countries. covid-19, the Russia situation and Xi's third term will move the timeline forward or back. What do you think? 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-20/kissinger-doesn-t-see-china-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-decade

Edited June 7, 2022 by Captain Monday

[placnx]

18 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

1st para: True

2nd para: False. Taiwan has Allies. 

Taiwan has allies, but China is preparing to lock out the US and others from coming to Taiwan's aid. Comparing Taiwan to Ukraine is a false analogy. Where is Taiwan's strategic depth? Furthermore, Taiwan has universal military service but the duty time is only 3-4 months. Ukraine has been fighting Russia in the Donbas since 2014.

[placnx]

18 hours ago, Lacessit said:

How do you know Taiwan is unprepared, do you sit in on the planning meetings of their military?

 

As the Ukrainian war has shown, modern shoulder-fired missiles are leveling the playing field. Russia has a superior air force to Ukraine, not doing them much good, is it?

 

China's biggest food import is soybeans, guess where that comes from? Hint: from China's biggest customer.

 

Silicon Valley outsources the manufacture of high-end semiconductors to Taiwan, there is nothing to say the US could not bring that capacity back home.

 

My mistake, Poroshenko is an oligarch, which led me to think he is cut from the same cloth as the Russians.

China can get soybeans from Brazil.

 

The US has not been selling the most advanced weapons to Taiwan, so as not to provoke China.

 

It would take 3 years or more to build advanced semiconductor capacity to replace Taiwan, and bear in mind that semi equipment makers have backlogs as it is. What would the US do in the interim?

[placnx]

16 hours ago, Lemsta69 said:

without semiconductors we're pretty much screwed. if Taiwan falls into CCP hands then I guess we'll eventually have to make peace with them and dance to their tune.

 

i don't either Taiwan or the US would consider blowing the factories before the PLA takes over as that would probably trigger a severe response from the CCP. but I could be wrong, US hubris gets in the way quite often and damn the consequences.

The Taiwan semiconductor companies should sabotage their China-based factories as soon as there is a hint of China invading Taiwan.

[placnx]

16 hours ago, Lemsta69 said:

I was thinking that they want to set up close to us in order to be able to make quick strikes on high-value targets like Pine Gap, Nurrungar and Tidbinbilla. 

It's more likely that they want to confiscate the fish around the Pacific islands and assure that those countries vote with China in the UN.

[placnx]

15 hours ago, Captain Monday said:

Over the recent time I never believed China would invade Thailand within the next 10-20 years. Old China Hand Kissinger doe not think so either.

 

They follow a longer term vision that includes the belt and road initiative, an archipelago of man made South China Sea bases, and military alliances with impoverished Pacific island countries. covid-19, the Russia situation and Xi's third term will move the timeline forward or back. What do you think? 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-20/kissinger-doesn-t-see-china-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-decade

Kissinger & Nixon got the ball rolling for China's "rise", and he has been a China promoter for many years, so why do you value his opinion?

[Lemsta69]

8 minutes ago, placnx said:

The Taiwan semiconductor companies should sabotage their China-based factories as soon as there is a hint of China invading Taiwan.

that's quite a provocative move though isn't it? CCP might retaliate with a scorched earth policy of their own. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens because it seems inevitable that "She" will make a play for Taiwan sooner or later.

[Captain Monday]

44 minutes ago, placnx said:

Kissinger & Nixon got the ball rolling for China's "rise", and he has been a China promoter for many years, so why do you value his opinion?

I don't. Always thought he was one of the more sinister figures of the 2Oth century. Surprised to learn he is still alive.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Captain Monday

[Lacessit]

30 minutes ago, Captain Monday said:

I don't. Always thought he was one of the more sinister figures of the 2Oth century. Surprised to learn he is still alive.

Why do you think Kissinger is sinister? Realpolitik, yes. Highly pragmatic, yes.

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, Lemsta69 said:

that's quite a provocative move though isn't it? CCP might retaliate with a scorched earth policy of their own. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens because it seems inevitable that "She" will make a play for Taiwan sooner or later.

dogs who bark don't bite, "she" is one of them, too much to lose

[connda]

On 6/6/2022 at 2:30 PM, JeffersLos said:

Go to Taiwan to help the Chinese to fight for what is theirs. 

I'm betting learning conversational Mandarin and repeating the phrase - One China Is The Best China (in Mandarin) would be the best idea.  That, and reading Catch-22 if you haven't read it already.  If you have read it?  Read it again, but more closely the second time. Me personally.  I don't see a lot of difference between the totalitarian promise of the West and the totalitarian promise of the East.  Except that Western totalitarianism is on the civilizational decline and the East and Eurasia are on the rise.  And I give a better than a 50/50 chance that by 2030 civilization on the planet's surface is all be gone.
My days of idealism are longggg gone.  And read Catch-22.

Edited June 8, 2022 by connda

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, connda said:

 And I give a better than a 50/50 chance that by 2030 civilization on the planet's surface is all be gone.
 

This thread is to discuss the ramifications of China invading Taiwan.  You preppers will have to start your own thread.

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, placnx said:

The Taiwan semiconductor companies should sabotage their China-based factories as soon as there is a hint of China invading Taiwan.

I know absolutely nothing about semiconductor production plant.  But perhaps there is some pieces of equipment that are akin to the firing pin in a rifle, remove that key piece and the rest of the machinery is rendered useless....

[TropicalGuy]

5 hours ago, placnx said:

Taiwan has allies, but China is preparing to lock out the US and others from coming to Taiwan's aid. Comparing Taiwan to Ukraine is a false analogy. Where is Taiwan's strategic depth? Furthermore, Taiwan has universal military service but the duty time is only 3-4 months. Ukraine has been fighting Russia in the Donbas since 2014.

????And I’m “ preparing” to do Salma Hayek. Same Odds. Any invasion is destroyed in intl. waters & air space by Allies, with ease. Taiwan must guard against a sneak attack by air & sea though using civilian craft.

Taiwans “depth” is its 1st Island Chain status plus Pacific Allies.

Taiwan & Ukraine a very close analogy. ????

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Taiwan & Ukraine a very close analogy. ????

The only thing analogous about Ukraine and Taiwan is that very shortly both countries will be at war.

[Captain Monday]

11 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Why do you think Kissinger is sinister? Realpolitik, yes. Highly pragmatic, yes.

The word would be "credibility" and millions slaughtered due America's amorphous psychological obsession continuing to this day.

 

[Sparktrader]

On 6/8/2022 at 3:19 AM, Captain Monday said:

Over the recent time I never believed China would invade Thailand within the next 10-20 years.

Hope not

[Captain Monday]

Meant Taiwan above there. They don't need to invade Thailand someday China and USA might have war.      Thailand will have proven their loyalty to the winner either way. 

[sandyf]

On 6/7/2022 at 1:28 PM, placnx said:

Keeping Taiwan out of Chinese control is strategically very important because around 85% of advanced semiconductors are made there. For the West that is just as important as the food shortage caused by the blockade of Ukraine's ports.

 

It would be very difficult for Taiwan to defend itself in the near term for the reasons noted by @GammaGlobulin in his/her first post.

You are talking like Taiwan is a normal country, but far from it. Following the second world war Taiwan was supposed to be returned to China by Japan but the agreement was never legally formalised. Taiwan is the ROC and China the PRC, both claim to be "China".

The US has no legal jurisdiction over Taiwan and any country needs a legal basis to infringe on another country's rights, not that that has stopped the US in the past but probably think twice before an act of war against China.

Current Chinese leadership is committed to reuniting Taiwan with the mainland so almost bound to happen at some point, little chance that Taiwan could takeover the mainland.

 

[gearbox]

On 6/8/2022 at 12:19 AM, Captain Monday said:

Over the recent time I never believed China would invade Thailand within the next 10-20 years. Old China Hand Kissinger doe not think so either.

 

They follow a longer term vision that includes the belt and road initiative, an archipelago of man made South China Sea bases, and military alliances with impoverished Pacific island countries. covid-19, the Russia situation and Xi's third term will move the timeline forward or back. What do you think? 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-20/kissinger-doesn-t-see-china-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-decade

China is not going to invade Taiwan unless massively provoked. And attempts are increasing to do so.

 

China plays the long game and the time is on its side. It doesn't need wars to do what it wants to do. The Chinese multinationals are slowly taking over industries, bite by bite.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-rise-of-chinese-new-car-sales-in-australia/

 

Little Taiwan owns its wealth on semiconductors, and the Chinese are hell bent to get on top in that industry. It may take them 20 years but they have capacity to do it.

 

Once the Chinese master this industry and grab commanding market share the Taiwanese are going to get way poorer,  and may want to join China themselves.

 

The creation of parallel semiconductor supply chains is also not helping Taiwan, the US and EU are investing massively, I doubt Taiwan can match their potential to be competitive in long term.

[MALL]

 

I think Chinese will not attack, possibly blockade until they submit after US doesn't jump in.

Edited June 11, 2022 by onthedarkside
trolling comment removed

[Adumbration]

18 hours ago, gearbox said:

China is not going to invade Taiwan unless massively provoked. And attempts are increasing to do so.

 

China plays the long game and the time is on its side. It doesn't need wars to do what it wants to do. The Chinese multinationals are slowly taking over industries, bite by bite.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-rise-of-chinese-new-car-sales-in-australia/

 

Little Taiwan owns its wealth on semiconductors, and the Chinese are hell bent to get on top in that industry. It may take them 20 years but they have capacity to do it.

 

Once the Chinese master this industry and grab commanding market share the Taiwanese are going to get way poorer,  and may want to join China themselves.

 

The creation of parallel semiconductor supply chains is also not helping Taiwan, the US and EU are investing massively, I doubt Taiwan can match their potential to be competitive in long term.

You are entirely overlooking the strategic importance of Taiwan geographically.  Crimea anyone?

[sandyf]

On 6/9/2022 at 3:27 PM, gearbox said:

China is not going to invade Taiwan unless massively provoked. And attempts are increasing to do so.

 

China plays the long game and the time is on its side. It doesn't need wars to do what it wants to do. The Chinese multinationals are slowly taking over industries, bite by bite.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-rise-of-chinese-new-car-sales-in-australia/

 

Little Taiwan owns its wealth on semiconductors, and the Chinese are hell bent to get on top in that industry. It may take them 20 years but they have capacity to do it.

 

Once the Chinese master this industry and grab commanding market share the Taiwanese are going to get way poorer,  and may want to join China themselves.

 

The creation of parallel semiconductor supply chains is also not helping Taiwan, the US and EU are investing massively, I doubt Taiwan can match their potential to be competitive in long term.

Looks like the US would prefer "One" to be ambiguous.

 

"Austin said Washington remains committed to the “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/china-ap-lloyd-austin-taiwan-singapore-b2098746.html

 

This is the core problem

 

China “firmly opposes and strongly condemns it,” and the Chinese government and military will “resolutely smash any Taiwan independence plot and resolutely safeguard the reunification of the motherland,” Wei said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-china-lloyd-austin-state-department-cctv-b2098343.html

[placnx]

On 6/9/2022 at 8:10 PM, sandyf said:

You are talking like Taiwan is a normal country, but far from it. Following the second world war Taiwan was supposed to be returned to China by Japan but the agreement was never legally formalised. Taiwan is the ROC and China the PRC, both claim to be "China".

The US has no legal jurisdiction over Taiwan and any country needs a legal basis to infringe on another country's rights, not that that has stopped the US in the past but probably think twice before an act of war against China.

Current Chinese leadership is committed to reuniting Taiwan with the mainland so almost bound to happen at some point, little chance that Taiwan could takeover the mainland.

 

You quote the official line of CCP. The reality is much more complicated.

 

Obviously, Taiwan after Chiang Kai Shek abandoned the delusion of retaking the mainland. CCP should abandon the idea of taking Taiwan by force, for its own good.

[placnx]

On 6/9/2022 at 9:27 PM, gearbox said:

China is not going to invade Taiwan unless massively provoked. And attempts are increasing to do so.

 

China plays the long game and the time is on its side. It doesn't need wars to do what it wants to do. The Chinese multinationals are slowly taking over industries, bite by bite.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/the-rise-and-rise-of-chinese-new-car-sales-in-australia/

 

Little Taiwan owns its wealth on semiconductors, and the Chinese are hell bent to get on top in that industry. It may take them 20 years but they have capacity to do it.

 

Once the Chinese master this industry and grab commanding market share the Taiwanese are going to get way poorer,  and may want to join China themselves.

 

The creation of parallel semiconductor supply chains is also not helping Taiwan, the US and EU are investing massively, I doubt Taiwan can match their potential to be competitive in long term.

As China develops its internal market and victimizes foreign investors with endless capricious regulations and edicts, the West continues to realize that China is an undesirable market, and the best counter is to cut off China from significant technology, develop alternative supply chains, and take Third World development goals seriously so as to neutralize the Belt & Road gambit. 

[sandyf]

20 hours ago, placnx said:

CCP should abandon the idea of taking Taiwan by force, for its own good.

By the same token Taiwan should abandon any idea of independence.   The last 70 years have proven peaceful co-existence can prevail, but you cannot legislate for US interference.

[placnx]

On 6/14/2022 at 11:48 AM, sandyf said:

By the same token Taiwan should abandon any idea of independence.   The last 70 years have proven peaceful co-existence can prevail, but you cannot legislate for US interference.

The status quo has been upset by XI Jinping being very explicit about taking over Taiwan by force, and that's different from the status quo where Taiwan would not be bothered as long as it did not declare independence. It's no wonder that the US is taking the matter seriously and looking to provide Taiwan with more effective defensive arms. I suppose that there is more detailed planning for defending Taiwan under various possible PLA attack strategies.

 

Xi's override of the international treaty concerning Hong Kong is a message for Taiwan and the world. I've always thought that the "one country two systems" for Hong Kong was mainly intended to sway public opinion in Taiwan toward reunification. Now China's use of force and economic coercion harks back several hundred years when brutality was the norm.