How long can Thailand’s central bank swim against the tide?

[Excel]

1 minute ago, superal said:

Interest rate rise or no rise , there could well be a downturn on property values .  Things are about to happen in Thailand and your last paragraph may be on the cards . There are all ready protests in other countries concerning the cost of living .

And this time people are more vocal and knowledgeable as to who, what or whom has been the main contributor to Thailand's weakened economy. Let's hope that this time round there is a major change and that the morally corrupt , yet absurdly rich folk who control this country for their own enjoyment and financial enrichment finally meet their match. One can only hope if Thailand has a future

[ThailandRyan]

Time to transfer another 25k from the US and then when the baht drops back down, transfer it back...

[Robin]

Bank of Thailand most probably knows how many Thais are borrowed up to their necks and how much unsold real estate there is with the builders over borrowed. It might even remember the previous Baht crash when borrowers were caught out and lenders like banks were badly hurt

In true Thai fashion the BOT will do nothing until forced to act by external pressures, and the resultant crash will be all the worse for it

BOT works or the rich Elite and not the general good of Thai people.

[vandeventer]

23 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sorry, I figured most would understand what I posted.  I just posted Shells prices today. Just filled up with tge Gasohol 95 non V-power.  Let's see what I get fuel wise on the way back to BKK from Pranburi.

My car won't run on anything but 95 benzine and it's getting harder to find.

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

My car won't run on anything but 95 benzine and it's getting harder to find.

Yep. That's why I use Shell most times. Only when I can not find the top end 95 do I drop down and then the car runs like feces.

[Tubulat]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Nope 54.46 for the top 95. Could use the 95 gasohol at 45.7, but my car does not get as good of fuel mileage. That was 2 days ago. Today it was 

Shell is the most expansive company in the world about fuels, take my advice and try a different company.

[Tubulat]

Just now, Tubulat said:

Shell is the most expansive company in the world about fuels, take my advice and try a different company.

When the 5 cent piece was abolished in the Netherlands, Shell was the only company that put 2 euro cents on the meter in advance before you had refueled!

[Tubulat]

13 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yep. That's why I use Shell most times. Only when I can not find the top end 95 do I drop down and then the car runs like feces.

I am curious what kind of car you drive to be independent of Shell.

Car made by Shell?

[ThailandRyan]

16 minutes ago, Tubulat said:

Shell is the most expansive company in the world about fuels, take my advice and try a different company.

It's where I buy my fuel and who I have stock in, just giving back some of my profits to keep them going.....you should maybe decide to tell someone who gives a damned about where they fuel if they can't afford it, but then maybe your my accountant....lol.

[vandeventer]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yep. That's why I use Shell most times. Only when I can not find the top end 95 do I drop down and then the car runs like feces.

Right now, some stations are shutting down with no fuel at all and some of my friends are getting dirty fuel from the ones that are open. Not much of a choice these days? 

[Blumpie]

4 hours ago, Walker88 said:

There is precious little understanding of economics evidenced in this forum.

 

Inflation is not instantaneous. It builds up over time, and then gets juiced by marginal issues. It's like a dam where one ignores the cracks and leaks until the thing bursts.

 

After the crisis that began under Bush II, the Fed embarked on ZIRP. That set the ball rolling in the wild speculation that brought back the housing market and made credit easy. Under 45 the National Debt exploded by $7,000,000,000,000, some of it due to spendthrift policies and a large part due to the tax cut. That is what really got inflation in motion. In my analogy the dam cracked and the leaks began. Bad luck whoever is in power when it inevitably bursts, because they will get the blame.)

 

Then came Covid and all of the aid handed out. Then as Covid came to an end all the pent up demand for everything from driving to travel to clothes juiced prices further. The fact much of the world relied on parts from China, at a time when China was locking down (disrupting supply chains) is another factor. The russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated things further by driving up fossil fuel prices (risk premium), with help from wasteful  crypto mining, at a time when people around the world were driving back to work. Toss in the fact that roughly 18% of the world's wheat crop is no longer coming to market, and all of that combined to bring about worldwide inflation.

 

It will get worse in nations whose currency is tumbling vs the dollar, because this is one of the few times when oil and the dollar rise together. The US will be spared some of that because oil is priced in dollars, but Thailand, Japan, the EU---really everywhere except the US and Middle East---is going to feel price inflation due to higher fuel and transport costs.

 

It is patently silly to blame Biden for all of this, though in the US, the repubs certainly are trying to do that. Blame the Fed for keeping its ZIRP for far too long, blame 45 for his profligacy, blame putin for invading a sovereign peaceful nation, blame Covid for postponing demand then unleashing it, and blame Covid/China again for their lockdowns and the resulting supply chain disruptions.

Many thanks for taking the time to type your answer.  

Inflation is very complicated and someone like myself struggles to understand the fundamentals.  

It seems as though its mostly oil and goes down the food chain, so to speak.  You can't do anything without oil and wages are going up too.  They have to!  

I feel it but honestly I think about others like the poor and worry about them a great great deal.  

[Caldera]

They think they're still swimming, but they might already be drowning. 

[kickstart]

4 hours ago, arithai12 said:

10 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I have seen more growing locations where they have the Tents set up with the used cars for sale in Bangkok and even south here in Prachuap Khiri Khan.....folks are running out of money for daily living.  Fuel prices are also an issue.  Paid 54.4 thb for my 95 fuel to put in my MG, not sure how the worker bees can keep filling up....

Pump prices are going through the roof yes (except Diesel which is subsidized), but 54??

Did you mean 45?

I noticed that as well ,he must buy his fuel from the whisky bottles beside the road ,they will be 50 baht/litre plus,

Our local Bang Jag,(big chain ) 45.50 for 95 fuel, still 200 baht to fill up my Honda Wave.

[rumak]

10 hours ago, Excel said:

I think it is not just here and the US, rather worldwide as so many companies are global institutions these days and with the connivance of corrupt governments ( and that is mostly all of them ) they are fleecing most of the world.

"you will own nothing.     and WE will be happy  "

welcome to the new world order .    

[hotchilli]

Thailand needs to get it's fuel prices into order, although already subsidised heavily any rise gives the opportunity for others to increase prices due to increased production costs.

 

[fulhamster]

21 hours ago, mikebell said:

They've got lots of 800K deposits from farangs; this way they dodge paying them any interest.

I get interest on mine. Admittedly 0.00001%

[brianthainess]

22 hours ago, mikebell said:

They've got lots of 800K deposits from farangs; this way they dodge paying them any interest.

You need to change banks.

[brianthainess]

1 hour ago, fulhamster said:

I get interest on mine. Admittedly 0.00001%

1.1 % on mine and 1.25% at another bank.

[ThailandRyan]

13 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

1.1 % on mine and 1.25% at another bank.

In Thailand?  Since when.  At one time my Fixed deposit account was making 2% then last year .04....on renewal this year let's see what the new 1 year fixed interest is.

Edited June 22, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[spidermike007]

19 hours ago, Walker88 said:

There is precious little understanding of economics evidenced in this forum.

 

Inflation is not instantaneous. It builds up over time, and then gets juiced by marginal issues. It's like a dam where one ignores the cracks and leaks until the thing bursts.

 

After the crisis that began under Bush II, the Fed embarked on ZIRP. That set the ball rolling in the wild speculation that brought back the housing market and made credit easy. Under 45 the National Debt exploded by $7,000,000,000,000, some of it due to spendthrift policies and a large part due to the tax cut. That is what really got inflation in motion. In my analogy the dam cracked and the leaks began. Bad luck whoever is in power when it inevitably bursts, because they will get the blame.)

 

Then came Covid and all of the aid handed out. Then as Covid came to an end all the pent up demand for everything from driving to travel to clothes juiced prices further. The fact much of the world relied on parts from China, at a time when China was locking down (disrupting supply chains) is another factor. The russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated things further by driving up fossil fuel prices (risk premium), with help from wasteful  crypto mining, at a time when people around the world were driving back to work. Toss in the fact that roughly 18% of the world's wheat crop is no longer coming to market, and all of that combined to bring about worldwide inflation.

 

It will get worse in nations whose currency is tumbling vs the dollar, because this is one of the few times when oil and the dollar rise together. The US will be spared some of that because oil is priced in dollars, but Thailand, Japan, the EU---really everywhere except the US and Middle East---is going to feel price inflation due to higher fuel and transport costs.

 

It is patently silly to blame Biden for all of this, though in the US, the repubs certainly are trying to do that. Blame the Fed for keeping its ZIRP for far too long, blame 45 for his profligacy, blame putin for invading a sovereign peaceful nation, blame Covid for postponing demand then unleashing it, and blame Covid/China again for their lockdowns and the resulting supply chain disruptions.

I think it is safe for us to say that the GOP is a party engaged primarily in denial of truth, facts, and science. They are moving backwards morally, and ethically, by nearly every measurement. Sure, the dems are broken too. But, they do not seem to have that same extreme aversion to truth, like the GOP. Facts do not matter. As their boy Rudy said, "truth is not truth". 

[spidermike007]

18 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Nope 54.46 for the top 95. Could use the 95 gasohol at 45.7, but my car does not get as good of fuel mileage. That was 2 days ago. Today it was 

Putting a top grade fuel in an MG is like feeding a pet top sirloin. How much better is your mileage, and does it justify spending 25% more on gas?

[RafPinto]

16 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It's where I buy my fuel and who I have stock in, just giving back some of my profits to keep them going.....you should maybe decide to tell someone who gives a damned about where they fuel if they can't afford it, but then maybe your my accountant....lol.

EXactly what I do.

I am a shareholder too and made already plenty of dividends.
Why to give my money to another company where I have no relation with.

[ThailandRyan]

38 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Putting a top grade fuel in an MG is like feeding a pet top sirloin. How much better is your mileage, and does it justify spending 25% more on gas?

It's for my Audi Q5 I picked up from my ex who could not afford to pay for it anymore......

[Excel]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

It's for my Audi Q5 I picked up from my ex who could not afford to pay for it anymore......

Nice car sir.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, Excel said:

Nice car sir.

It is

[ThailandRyan]

49 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Putting a top grade fuel in an MG is like feeding a pet top sirloin. How much better is your mileage, and does it justify spending 25% more on gas?

Making assumptions is not good sir.

[Excel]

However to get back to the question "how-long-can-thailand’s-central-bank-swim-against-the-tide"  . I would assume like all banana states it will be until all of the foreign reserves have either been used up or else embezzled by the top people.

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, Excel said:

However to get back to the question "how-long-can-thailand’s-central-bank-swim-against-the-tide"  . I would assume like all banana states it will be until all of the foreign reserves have either been used up or else embezzled by the top people.

I am thinking that by August the BOT may see the true extent of inflation and we will see a rise in rates.  When that happens those who want to borrow will already be in a bad way.

Edited June 22, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[bronzedude]

21 hours ago, Walker88 said:

There is precious little understanding of economics evidenced in this forum.

 

Inflation is not instantaneous. It builds up over time, and then gets juiced by marginal issues. It's like a dam where one ignores the cracks and leaks until the thing bursts.

 

After the crisis that began under Bush II, the Fed embarked on ZIRP. That set the ball rolling in the wild speculation that brought back the housing market and made credit easy. Under 45 the National Debt exploded by $7,000,000,000,000, some of it due to spendthrift policies and a large part due to the tax cut. That is what really got inflation in motion. In my analogy the dam cracked and the leaks began. Bad luck whoever is in power when it inevitably bursts, because they will get the blame.)

 

Then came Covid and all of the aid handed out. Then as Covid came to an end all the pent up demand for everything from driving to travel to clothes juiced prices further. The fact much of the world relied on parts from China, at a time when China was locking down (disrupting supply chains) is another factor. The russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated things further by driving up fossil fuel prices (risk premium), with help from wasteful  crypto mining, at a time when people around the world were driving back to work. Toss in the fact that roughly 18% of the world's wheat crop is no longer coming to market, and all of that combined to bring about worldwide inflation.

 

It will get worse in nations whose currency is tumbling vs the dollar, because this is one of the few times when oil and the dollar rise together. The US will be spared some of that because oil is priced in dollars, but Thailand, Japan, the EU---really everywhere except the US and Middle East---is going to feel price inflation due to higher fuel and transport costs.

 

It is patently silly to blame Biden for all of this, though in the US, the repubs certainly are trying to do that. Blame the Fed for keeping its ZIRP for far too long, blame 45 for his profligacy, blame putin for invading a sovereign peaceful nation, blame Covid for postponing demand then unleashing it, and blame Covid/China again for their lockdowns and the resulting supply chain disruptions.

Well stated. Put the blame where it belongs.

[superal]

18 hours ago, Excel said:

And this time people are more vocal and knowledgeable as to who, what or whom has been the main contributor to Thailand's weakened economy. Let's hope that this time round there is a major change and that the morally corrupt , yet absurdly rich folk who control this country for their own enjoyment and financial enrichment finally meet their match. One can only hope if Thailand has a future

Not so sure about knowledgeable among the general population but the university guys & gals will be fully aware that there is another world outside of Thailand  where democracy works . The more recent events , where a new political party has become popular , shows a quick suppression by the authorities . The global recession has not hit Thailand yet but will soon and there will be public protests to follow as there are now , happening in other countries  .