Australian Dollar is collapsing

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Looking at GDP figures, present and predicted, Australia is one of the best situated.

Australian market will crash when the US markets tank.  It has always been that way.  GDP is irrelevant.  Flight of capital will then be into the US dollar.  AUD will be toast because the RBA is bankrupt and cannot step in and buy to support our dollar.

 

Australian government and the RBA have painted themselves into a no win corner.  Raise interest rates and worlds biggest residential property bubble will collapse.  Don't raise interest rates and the AUD will collapse.

 

Lowe took his foot off the interest rate peddle this month so it is clear that they have made their choice.  The AUD will be sacrificed to try and save the Residential property market.

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Australian market will crash when the US markets tank.  It has always been that way.  GDP is irrelevant.  Flight of capital will then be into the US dollar.  AUD will be toast because the RBA is bankrupt and cannot step in and buy to support our dollar.

 

Australian government and the RBA have painted themselves into a no win corner.  Raise interest rates and worlds biggest residential property bubble will collapse.  Don't raise interest rates and the AUD will collapse.

 

Lowe took his foot off the interest rate peddle this month so it is clear that they have made their choice.  The AUD will be sacrificed to try and save the Residential property market.

 

 

Government debt has dropped significantly, Australia is rated AAA stable by the ratings agencies. The economy is stronger than many other countries.

You may be right; however, I would not be buying US dollars. I prefer gold and silver.

We'll see in a few months whether your prognostications are correct.

[Adumbration]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Government debt has dropped significantly, Australia is rated AAA stable by the ratings agencies. The economy is stronger than many other countries.

You may be right; however, I would not be buying US dollars. I prefer gold and silver.

We'll see in a few months whether your prognostications are correct.

AUD failed to hold 24 baht heading south again.  Because risk back on with US markets.  Rating mean nothing.  RBA is bankrupt, literally, and this is not a tin foil hat banter it is a reported fact.

[mixed]

On 10/13/2022 at 3:34 PM, Tradewind777 said:

Good points in there for sure and I have the following to add..

There is no perfect country but I get the impression reading through this thread that there are so many armchair critics mouthing off about how bad a state Australia is in. Consider this: 

We are a democracy, yes with its bruises and failures but give me that over a dictatorship.

We don’t rely on borrowing from every Tom Dick and Harry to pay off the debt to Ann Sue or Sally whom they have previously borrowed from.

We are a resource country and earn our keep from exports of same. That’s lucky, not relying on dog eat dog trading to eek out a miserable survival.

 

We have social security and many of the recipients are even living elsewhere in the world as beneficiaries.

We are not persuaded to borrow up big to buy a new car prop up a local motor industry, far better to let those be made in tin pot dictatorships where the sheeple will make them “cheap as” with coolie labour terms akin to slavery.

We are very welcoming of foreigners to join us in our walk to build a prosperous, equitable society. We don’t favour locals over “aliens”.

We have a proper justice system using age old English based law that is not compliant to the government. There is separation of powers.

Finally we have a revered Monarchy which has served us well for centuries. That last monarch worked hard to make our country better. The next commits to do the same and likely will and the same monarchy tells us if we don’t want them anymore for whatever reason, we are totally FREE to do so. 
 

I get the feeling many of the writers in this thread moan about Oz in order to justify living somewhere which may not come close to the above ideals. Well good luck to you but I know side of my bread the butter is on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revered Monarchy, King Chuck? Pauline would agree I suppose.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

AUD failed to hold 24 baht heading south again.  Because risk back on with US markets.  Rating mean nothing.  RBA is bankrupt, literally, and this is not a tin foil hat banter it is a reported fact.

Reserve banks print money, remember? That is one of their functions, money supply.

I'd suggest posting a credible link to what you claim is a reported fact.

A statement the AUD is heading south again also means nothing, it's a single data point.

 

[Adumbration]

20 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Reserve banks print money, remember? That is one of their functions, money supply.

I'd suggest posting a credible link to what you claim is a reported fact.

A statement the AUD is heading south again also means nothing, it's a single data point.

 

So you think the RBA is going to keep publicly announcing they need to reign in inflation and then start printing more AUD....hilarious.  But they could do that....everyone in any position of authority right now has absolutely no idea whatsoever and is just making up decisions as they go.  No better recent example of that than what has just happened in the UK.

 

RBA is not only bankrupt they are actually in the red.  They have ceased paying any dividends to the Government and have to rely on printing money to prevent their collapse. They are currently 45 billion dollars in the hole and if they were a private entity would be wound up by receivers:

 

https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/monetary-policy/unconventional-monetary-policy/7953188/rba-reports-huge-losses-from-bond-purchase-programme

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62976794

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Adumbration

[Lacessit]

49 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

So you think the RBA is going to keep publicly announcing they need to reign in inflation and then start printing more AUD....hilarious.  But they could do that....everyone in any position of authority right now has absolutely no idea whatsoever and is just making up decisions as they go.  No better recent example of that than what has just happened in the UK.

 

RBA is not only bankrupt they are actually in the red.  They have ceased paying any dividends to the Government and have to rely on printing money to prevent their collapse. They are currently 45 billion dollars in the hole and if they were a private entity would be wound up by receivers:

 

https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/monetary-policy/unconventional-monetary-policy/7953188/rba-reports-huge-losses-from-bond-purchase-programme

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62976794

 

 

 

From your own link:

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) deputy governor says that wiped out the bank's profit for the 2021-22 year, leaving a net loss of A$36.7bn.

The bonds were accumulated under a A$300bn emergency stimulus programme.

However, the bank says the loss will not affect its normal operations.

"If any commercial entity had negative equity, assets would be insufficient to meet liabilities and therefore the company would not be a going concern," RBA deputy governor Michele Bullock said.

"Since it has the ability to create money, the Bank can continue to meet its obligations as they become due," she added.

[oznomad]

On 10/15/2022 at 10:11 AM, Lacessit said:

Return to Australia within every 183 days so you can continue to claim you are an Australian resident for tax purposes.

Not a thing. You don't have to do that at all to remain tax resident.

[Lacessit]

21 minutes ago, oznomad said:

Not a thing. You don't have to do that at all to remain tax resident.

This is an area which is very vague, there are AFAIK 4 basic tests of tax residency.

If the ATO decides you are NOT a tax resident, good luck with trying to change that decision.

[Sparktrader]

Going up again

[oznomad]

17 hours ago, Lacessit said:

This is an area which is very vague, there are AFAIK 4 basic tests of tax residency.

If the ATO decides you are NOT a tax resident, good luck with trying to change that decision.

4 tests, yes, but you dont have to 'pass' them all to remain tax resident. 

You can be tax resident without setting foot in the country for many years, like me.

 

https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/coming-to-australia-or-going-overseas/Your-tax-residency/

 

[Lacessit]

14 minutes ago, oznomad said:

4 tests, yes, but you dont have to 'pass' them all to remain tax resident. 

You can be tax resident without setting foot in the country for many years, like me.

 

https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/coming-to-australia-or-going-overseas/Your-tax-residency/

 

AFAIK you have to only pass one. Having said that, I understand there is legislation impending that will have only the 183 rule as the determining factor.

I suspect, like myself, it is unlikely you will be asking the ATO for their opinion.

Back on topic, 24.17 baht. Collapsing upwards, apparently.

Edited October 22, 2022 by Lacessit

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

AFAIK you have to only pass one. Having said that, I understand there is legislation impending that will have only the 183 rule as the determining factor.

I suspect, like myself, it is unlikely you will be asking the ATO for their opinion.

Back on topic, 24.17 baht. Collapsing upwards, apparently.

That pending legislation got canned when liberal lost the election..

[norbra]

Yesterday I bought THB at AUD 24.47

[Adumbration]

36 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

AFAIK you have to only pass one. Having said that, I understand there is legislation impending that will have only the 183 rule as the determining factor.

I suspect, like myself, it is unlikely you will be asking the ATO for their opinion.

Back on topic, 24.17 baht. Collapsing upwards, apparently.

I don't think you get it.  The ATO WANT you to remain a tax resident regardless of your location globally.  However if they run the numbers and decide their is more money in it for them to declare you a non resident then that is the path they will pursue.

[Adumbration]

24 minutes ago, norbra said:

Yesterday I bought THB at AUD 24.47

I the market rate did not hit that level yesterday.  Were did you buy?

[Sparktrader]

Wise 24.25

Superich 24.05

[scorecard]

6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Wise 24.25

Superich 24.05

XE midrate 17:00 22 Oct 2022 = 24.17Baht to 1AUD.

[norbra]

51 minutes ago, norbra said:

Yesterday I bought THB at AUD 24.47

Correction 24.247

[whiteman]

stop complaining N.Z. $ only gets 22.00 bhat think yourselves lucky

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, Adumbration said:

I don't think you get it.  The ATO WANT you to remain a tax resident regardless of your location globally.  However if they run the numbers and decide their is more money in it for them to declare you a non resident then that is the path they will pursue.

I've never seen any indication from the ATO they prefer to have people tax resident, do you have a link to support your statement?

I have a Centrelink pension and a quite modest investment income. They get zero from me as a tax resident, due to franking credits, and SATO. Neither of which apply when taxing someone as non-resident, where they take 32.5% of ALL income.

[Lacessit]

Guaranteed rate on WISE for 21 hours now 24.31, some collapse I am seeing.

[Adumbration]

18 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Guaranteed rate on WISE for 21 hours now 24.31, some collapse I am seeing.

You need to refresh the cache in your browser.  The moment the spineless RBA failed to raise by .50 yesterday the AUD collapse down to 24.01.

[Lacessit]

22 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

You need to refresh the cache in your browser.  The moment the spineless RBA failed to raise by .50 yesterday the AUD collapse down to 24.01.

My guaranteed rate on WISE as I write is 24.21.

Don't go into a career in statistical quality control, IMO you'd be terrible at it. Reacting to single data points.

[Adumbration]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

My guaranteed rate on WISE as I write is 24.21.

Don't go into a career in statistical quality control, IMO you'd be terrible at it. Reacting to single data points.

No doubt you are better at math then me due to being born before the abacus was invented.

[Lacessit]

26 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

No doubt you are better at math then me due to being born before the abacus was invented.

Not far off it, actually. We had to use slide rules for calculations.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Lacessit

[RabidRenu]

On 10/14/2022 at 1:30 PM, still kicking said:

I don't have free housing I am renting a 2 bedroom unit and just have my pension and live very well, not everybody lives in the ripoff cities like Sydney or Melbourne

Don't mean to pry or disbelieve, but I am very interested how you do as you say. Would it be possible to share your budget? Rent, Energy, Transport, Internet, Mobile, Food, Drink, Entertainment etc?

[still kicking]

2 minutes ago, RabidRenu said:

Don't mean to pry or disbelieve, but I am very interested how you do as you say. Would it be possible to share your budget? Rent, Energy, Transport, Internet, Mobile, Food, Drink, Entertainment etc?

Yes no problem

Pension 1350 AUD per fortnight ( All sums are in Australian dollars )

Rent 240 ( 2 bedroom unit kitchen,lounge,shower,toilet ) per week

Electricity average 90 per 60 days

Food maybe 90 for the fortnight

Internet 60 per month

Phone just 10 per 3 months ( don't use the phone often )

Drink 15 per week for red wine (5 liters)

Transport ( cost for registration, Petrol) 250 per 3 months

AS you can see I have plenty left end of the month

 

[RabidRenu]

19 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Yes no problem

Pension 1350 AUD per fortnight ( All sums are in Australian dollars )

Rent 240 ( 2 bedroom unit kitchen,lounge,shower,toilet ) per week

Electricity average 90 per 60 days

Food maybe 90 for the fortnight

Internet 60 per month

Phone just 10 per 3 months ( don't use the phone often )

Drink 15 per week for red wine (5 liters)

Transport ( cost for registration, Petrol) 250 per 3 months

AS you can see I have plenty left end of the month

 

Good for you, buddy! You must have some add-ons to the standard (max) age pension, but still well done. I would definitely be getting out of OZ tho for way more bang for your buck. All depends on what is keeping you there.

[3NUMBAS]

everyone will be hunting gold all over the place