Beef cattle the future

[473geo]

Good morning guys, interested in your thoughts on the future of raising beef cattle

For me I feel the breeding cattle price 40 - 60k is at its top level for 'quality' animals 

The cattle for beef appear to be very numerous in our area with people keeping heifers over the last few years and thus there will be an general output increase, so my question for those in the know...

..do you feel there is a possibility of over supply, thus a drop in offering price, on the way, for say 1 year to 18 month old stock?

 

[ozimoron]

I'm no expert but I come from cattle country. There will never be an oversupply of beef.

[CLW]

From what I've heard the free trade agreement with Australia for beef has put local cattle farmers under enormous pressure price and quality wise. Makro and Tops have now 50% imported beef, a lot more than in the past.

 

There might be a difference for restaurants and local Thai people that buy cheap Thai beef from old dairy cows but I refuse to eat this leather meat

[473geo]

In our area there was a fair amount of wagyu cross cattle selling well for further breeding, also beefmaster bulls on Charollais, Angus too, so local beef should be improving, along with an increase in production hence my question ????

[farmerjo]

Where does one look for a weekly beef KG price in Thailand.

Is there a website.

[ozimoron]

17 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

Where does one look for a weekly beef KG price in Thailand.

Is there a website.

https://www.globalproductprices.com/Thailand/beef_price/

[farmerjo]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

https://www.globalproductprices.com/Thailand/beef_price/

So i can go to my local cattle market and i will get 850 baht/kilo for my cow.

Regardless of breed and age.

[tgw]

11 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

So i can go to my local cattle market and i will get 850 baht/kilo for my cow.

Regardless of breed and age.

that website is obviously BS.

[kickstart]

3 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

So i can go to my local cattle market and i will get 850 baht/kilo for my cow.

Regardless of breed and age.

In a nutshell FJ No,asking around beef on the hoof is about 100 baht/kg , that chart  is basically a load of BS,unless you are selling 100% Wagyu cattle ,which a very, very  small percent of Thai beef producers are doing.

The price has dropped a lot this year ,inflation ,the economy not good, high fuel prices and feed prices going  up all the time. rice straw prices have been at an all-time high but now dropping back with rice harvest,and Lumpy Skin disease has not helped 

We sold 13-month-old Beef master X  bull at the new year got 39000 baht for him ,sold one very similar 2 weeks ago got 30000 baht.

The OP quoted 40-60K for breeding cattle ,they will be for Red Brahmans , and now to some extent Indo Brazil ,but their prices have dropped, their prices have always been high ,,for Red Brahman the heifers going for breeding ,most of their breeding comes  from the USA ,the bulls will go for stud bulls ,they are a market on they own ,

They will not be an over supply with the low prices and the above problems farmers are getting out,when prices rise more farmers will star rearing beef cattle again. 

Most Thai beef cattle are sold when they are 2 years plus ,with the poor diet growth rates are slow ,your average animal at 12-18 months old will be no where fit for beef ,some buyers buy cattle at this age to finish ,they will have to keep them for a year. 

Thai cattle price have always gone up and down ,for the past 3-4 years they have been high, but now dropping a lot .

Now could be the time to buy a few cattle ..........if you can find some good quality cattle ,I have been looking for some Beefmaster or Angus X cattle ,just nothing about in our area lopburi ,will have to move to Issan where most of the best herds are .

[farmerjo]

I guess what i was trying to say was

Breeders don't need contracts to sell their stock.

To sell beef you need a contract.

[kickstart]

20 hours ago, farmerjo said:

I guess what i was trying to say was

Breeders don't need contracts to sell their stock.

To sell beef you need a contract.

Hi FJ

        Yes and no re selling beef ,you have your Thai /French set up in Sakhonkhon,pluss one or  two similar set-ups , about ,where you are  a member of a co-op providing beef to the co-op /company .

As has been said in the past they beef is good quality,they use Charolais X Brahman  cattle ,same as the other co-op's /company's.

But on the hole ,and in my area the selling farmer sells his cattle to a local cattle buyer, and he will sell it on to the slaughterhouse  who will then sell it on to who ever wants to buy some beef .

One member on here a few years ago was selling direct to the slaughterhouse ,he was in Issan, and they again would sell it on .

We have one slaughterhouse near here they will buy direct from the farms ,but they only buy good quality  fat beef ,and normaly pay over market price for it.

[473geo]

Thanks for the input guys, 

Quite surprised with the comments on Thai product, our village has some real quality Charollais x cattle 

 

The solution for me arrived by nature, one of the heifers we were thinking of letting go came into season, plus another 1st calver, so now we only have a 12 month old bull to offload and will keep growing him until an offer comes in we like 

 

I think quality is the key, and dialogue above appears to support my thinking that lower quality will not be so much sought after 

 

[kickstart]

2 hours ago, 473geo said:

Thanks for the input guys, 

Quite surprised with the comments on Thai product, our village has some real quality Charollais x cattle 

 

The solution for me arrived by nature, one of the heifers we were thinking of letting go came into season, plus another 1st calver, so now we only have a 12 month old bull to offload and will keep growing him until an offer comes in we like 

 

I think quality is the key, and dialogue above appears to support my thinking that lower quality will not be so much sought after 

 

You might have to wait for a good offer ,the main problem is they is a very small  market for quality cattle,a lot depends on where you live ,most cattle buyers will only pay market price ,they are thinking how can I make my money on this animal,unless they have a high price outlet  it is market price only.

As for lower quality not being sought after ,if they are cheap enough someone will buy them ,if only to sell them on if a dealer can make 500baht/head on buying and selling say 10 cattle he would be happy with that.

You want to ask around ,other cattle farmers might know of someone ,probably be outside your area.

Like I said cattle prices are dropping,we have this 11-month-old Angus X ,nice animal ,local dealer said 25000 baht,that is mum behind.

Our feed costs are not that high ,so we are keeping him for a bit longer. 

[473geo]

Well a couple of months on am seeing cattle moving but demand is not clearing the output in our area appears to be quite s few farmers looking to offload but not many takers at the moment 

[kickstart]

On 11/19/2022 at 6:40 PM, 473geo said:

Thanks for the input guys, 

Quite surprised with the comments on Thai product, our village has some real quality Charollais x cattle 

 

The solution for me arrived by nature, one of the heifers we were thinking of letting go came into season, plus another 1st calver, so now we only have a 12 month old bull to offload and will keep growing him until an offer comes in we like 

 

I think quality is the key, and dialogue above appears to support my thinking that lower quality will not be so much sought after 

 

 

19 hours ago, 473geo said:

Well a couple of months on am seeing cattle moving but demand is not clearing the output in our area appears to be quite s few farmers looking to offload but not many takers at the moment 

The problem is still fed costs ,those farmers that feed concentrate are still finding the prices is going up.

I do not know about your area but here in our big dairy cow area ,Lopburi, rice straw is still expensive about 40 baht /bale ,normaly this time of year ,just after rice harvest it is 25-28 baht/bale being dry not a lot of grass in the fields /hedge bottoms to graze/cut ,and the cattle price is still low in all markets ,dairy and beef,.

So anyone buying cattle know they are some cheap cattle out they, but the rearing costs are leaving a very low margin ,if you are working on borrowed money with  rising interest rates ,does not leave a lot of profit.

Your past post about quality cattle ,we sold that black Angus bull last month ,we got 33 000 baht for him ,with the present market not a bad price ,as the wife said 18 months ago we would have got 45 000 baht for him, and he was only 13 months old .

The guy who brought him is a local cattle dealer ,he has brought cattle from us before ,he will keep him for another year and sell him on for beef ,by then he will weigh about 500 kg ,hopefully the prices will increase 

[CLW]

On 2/3/2023 at 2:33 PM, kickstart said:

 

The problem is still fed costs ,those farmers that feed concentrate are still finding the prices is going up.

I do not know about your area but here in our big dairy cow area ,Lopburi, rice straw is still expensive about 40 baht /bale ,normaly this time of year ,just after rice harvest it is 25-28 baht/bale being dry not a lot of grass in the fields /hedge bottoms to graze/cut ,and the cattle price is still low in all markets ,dairy and beef,.

So anyone buying cattle know they are some cheap cattle out they, but the rearing costs are leaving a very low margin ,if you are working on borrowed money with  rising interest rates ,does not leave a lot of profit.

Your past post about quality cattle ,we sold that black Angus bull last month ,we got 33 000 baht for him ,with the present market not a bad price ,as the wife said 18 months ago we would have got 45 000 baht for him, and he was only 13 months old .

The guy who brought him is a local cattle dealer ,he has brought cattle from us before ,he will keep him for another year and sell him on for beef ,by then he will weigh about 500 kg ,hopefully the prices will increase 

Replying to feed cost, you're absolutely right about buying concentrate and making very little to no profit. Beef cattle farming only makes sense here if you can grow forage on ideally irrigated land or have plenty of grazing area on owned land. 

[kickstart]

4 hours ago, CLW said:

Replying to feed cost, you're absolutely right about buying concentrate and making very little to no profit. Beef cattle farming only makes sense here if you can grow forage on ideally irrigated land or have plenty of grazing area on owned land. 

Do you want a job??,come to my area ad explain that to our dairy farmers ,I have being trying for ........a lot of years without any luck.

Growing grass it would be cut and cart ,not all farmers have access to water,not all have tractors some use a grass strimmer to cut the grass.

They like beef farmers just used rice straw as a main sauce of forage ,and relay on expensive concentrate for production ,in this area a lot of dairy farmers are giving up can not make it pay  mainly the small ones ,all claiming that concentrate prices are too high and they can not make any profit.

I have being playing around with Google/YouTube,about making small bales of silage,make it during the rainy season feed it for the cool/hot season  ,equipment will have to be imported ,saying that Yanmar make a small baler ,doubt if it is made in Thailand ,but it might miss out on import tax .

I reckon that for mower baler rapping machine,4-500 000 baht ,might be cheaper if you can find second hand ,most farmers have a tractor about 45 hp would do,grass management would have to be good and of good quality.

With the above you could cut back on concentrate  milk yield/beef growth rates would increase ,the big infertility problem with dairy cows would improve,all round more money could be made.

A dairy farmer near me spent 200 000 baht on rice straw last year for his 60-70 head of stock, this year could well be 300 000 with the big increase in price of rice straw .

Doing the above, it would pay for its self in less than two years .

Reality,it won't happen ,farmers would say too big an investment something new for them,they afraid it would not work, better off doing what they do now.     

[CLW]

20 hours ago, kickstart said:

Do you want a job??,come to my area ad explain that to our dairy farmers ,I have being trying for ........a lot of years without any luck.

Growing grass it would be cut and cart ,not all farmers have access to water,not all have tractors some use a grass strimmer to cut the grass.

They like beef farmers just used rice straw as a main sauce of forage ,and relay on expensive concentrate for production ,in this area a lot of dairy farmers are giving up can not make it pay  mainly the small ones ,all claiming that concentrate prices are too high and they can not make any profit.

I have being playing around with Google/YouTube,about making small bales of silage,make it during the rainy season feed it for the cool/hot season  ,equipment will have to be imported ,saying that Yanmar make a small baler ,doubt if it is made in Thailand ,but it might miss out on import tax .

I reckon that for mower baler rapping machine,4-500 000 baht ,might be cheaper if you can find second hand ,most farmers have a tractor about 45 hp would do,grass management would have to be good and of good quality.

With the above you could cut back on concentrate  milk yield/beef growth rates would increase ,the big infertility problem with dairy cows would improve,all round more money could be made.

A dairy farmer near me spent 200 000 baht on rice straw last year for his 60-70 head of stock, this year could well be 300 000 with the big increase in price of rice straw .

Doing the above, it would pay for its self in less than two years .

Reality,it won't happen ,farmers would say too big an investment something new for them,they afraid it would not work, better off doing what they do now.     

I am also wondering what all those AG universities and government agricultural extension offices are doing? Many of those Professors studied abroad, so have officials or at least made some trips overseas.

Not losing any hope but I don't see a future for small scale dairy or beef farmers.

Especially after the free-trade agreement with Australia to import beef and lamb meat.

[kickstart]

3 hours ago, CLW said:

I am also wondering what all those AG universities and government agricultural extension offices are doing? Many of those Professors studied abroad, so have officials or at least made some trips overseas.

Not losing any hope but I don't see a future for small scale dairy or beef farmers.

Especially after the free-trade agreement with Australia to import beef and lamb meat.

Good question ,I know a few people who work,or use to work ,for the DPO ,The Dairy Promotion Organization of Thailand ,the milk producing arm of the Thai Denmark milk group,also a part funded government quango .being based at Mortlec ,in Saraburi province ,as you say some of they employees have been sent abroad ,and some can speck fair English 

But it seems a lot instead of being out in the field as extension offices,they end up doing a desk job shifting paper about ,as they are concerned a lot easer job than walking about someone's farm  one who I have meet on a few occasions  is now at Khon Khen Unverstiy ,I think,or was , teaching dairy science ?

The last time we meet I was saying about the big problem with dairy cows ,mainly infertility due to the poor diet the main forage sauce being rice straw,being very short of energy and how to cure it she agreed with me about growing grass cutting back /out,rice straw,she used to lecher about it, but the dairy farmers would not listen still using rice straw ,I would call it being lazy ,easier just to pick up a bale of rice straw cut the strings job done ,than going out in to a field and cutting grass.

As for Australian  beef coming in to Thailand ,this has been going on for a couple of years ,most imported beef gets sold at Macro Big C etc ,where I would say it is a limited market,  can not see that changing the market trends  ,my wife and most Thais I know what bit of beef they buy they get from the locale market ,the local noddle shops etc certainly do ,for them the Macro beef would be to expensive .

Small scale dairy farmers giving up ,it is already happening in my area as I said ,and you said ,feed cost just too high and the debt a lot of these farmers have either with the bank or their local milk centre ,the milk centres borrow money from the bank ,loan it out to the farmers at a point or two higher ,they get it back by deducting it from they monthly milk income,one farmer friend of mine said they are in debt to the bank /co-op about  600 000 baht that was the last time I asked them.

Raw milk price has gone up now about 19 baht/kg depending on quality, most say still not enough ,better management is certainly needed and a change of ways ,both unlikely. 

 

 

[couchpotato]

3 hours ago, kickstart said:

Good question ,I know a few people who work,or use to work ,for the DPO ,The Dairy Promotion Organization of Thailand ,the milk producing arm of the Thai Denmark milk group,also a part funded government quango .being based at Mortlec ,in Saraburi province ,as you say some of they employees have been sent abroad ,and some can speck fair English 

But it seems a lot instead of being out in the field as extension offices,they end up doing a desk job shifting paper about ,as they are concerned a lot easer job than walking about someone's farm  one who I have meet on a few occasions  is now at Khon Khen Unverstiy ,I think,or was , teaching dairy science ?

The last time we meet I was saying about the big problem with dairy cows ,mainly infertility due to the poor diet the main forage sauce being rice straw,being very short of energy and how to cure it she agreed with me about growing grass cutting back /out,rice straw,she used to lecher about it, but the dairy farmers would not listen still using rice straw ,I would call it being lazy ,easier just to pick up a bale of rice straw cut the strings job done ,than going out in to a field and cutting grass.

As for Australian  beef coming in to Thailand ,this has been going on for a couple of years ,most imported beef gets sold at Macro Big C etc ,where I would say it is a limited market,  can not see that changing the market trends  ,my wife and most Thais I know what bit of beef they buy they get from the locale market ,the local noddle shops etc certainly do ,for them the Macro beef would be to expensive .

Small scale dairy farmers giving up ,it is already happening in my area as I said ,and you said ,feed cost just too high and the debt a lot of these farmers have either with the bank or their local milk centre ,the milk centres borrow money from the bank ,loan it out to the farmers at a point or two higher ,they get it back by deducting it from they monthly milk income,one farmer friend of mine said they are in debt to the bank /co-op about  600 000 baht that was the last time I asked them.

Raw milk price has gone up now about 19 baht/kg depending on quality, most say still not enough ,better management is certainly needed and a change of ways ,both unlikely. 

 

 

Interesting post..learn something new everyday

[473geo]

We have Brahman x Wagyu 2nd calver (AI wagyu bull) due in about 6 months had an offer today 30k baht ???? we declined as it produced a good quality Angusx first calf and its not a cow we had in mind to sell

Still have our bull calf it is starting to fill out now growing well, will make a good sized animal so will just keep it going until a respectable offer comes in ????

Told today wagyu beef on the hoof .85 baht kg not checked that out yet but appears to have slipped a bit 

[farmerjo]

38 minutes ago, 473geo said:

We have Brahman x Wagyu 2nd calver (AI wagyu bull) due in about 6 months had an offer today 30k baht ???? we declined as it produced a good quality Angusx first calf and its not a cow we had in mind to sell

Still have our bull calf it is starting to fill out now growing well, will make a good sized animal so will just keep it going until a respectable offer comes in ????

Told today wagyu beef on the hoof .85 baht kg not checked that out yet but appears to have slipped a bit 

Well done,if you get a female it will be well worth keeping to go for a F2 cross.

[RanongCat]

So sad is usual commercial distortion of original. Any Wagyu bovine in Thailand is many generation away from the real ! Original was  not  breed  but product of raising !

Fatty beef is  fatty beef . Not Wagyu .

[kickstart]

42 minutes ago, RanongCat said:

So sad is usual commercial distortion of original. Any Wagyu bovine in Thailand is many generation away from the real ! Original was  not  breed  but product of raising !

Fatty beef is  fatty beef . Not Wagyu .

Not only in Thailand ,Japan is very protective about they Wagyu cattle, getting any 100 %Wagyu outside of Japan not easy.

Most Wagyu in Thailand come from Australia, and even they a lot of Heard's are not 100 %, a guy near me has an Australian Wagyu bull even that is not 100% he is putting it on to his dairy cows and some Wagyu cross breads it will be a good few years before he will be anywhere near 100 %Wagyu.

A few years ago, they were some Wagyu semen from an ET(embery transfer) bull, that was supposed to be 100 % but I had my doubts, I did see a few calves Crossed with dairy cows, you could most certainly see the Wagyu in them.

But they never really took off Thai farmers said they are too small a Thais like big cattle, hence Indo Brazil cattle that were popular a few years ago.

Wagyu beef at 85baht/kg that is cheap, that is the same price as your cross breeds Brahman cattle, all cattle prices have dropped a lot over the past year, see past post on this thread. 

Wagyu cattle should be a market on they own commanding high price, but for most cattle farms it is finding that market not easy, your 50-50 crosses will not make so much, if you get up to 80%+ then you should get that good price .............as I said if you can find a buyer.

[473geo]

Interesting day today, one of our neighbours brought a buyer to look at our cattle

First words he spoke were where are the wagyu ????

These guys like the wagyu as they are guaranteed to sell them on provided they purchase at the correct price somebody will want to take them off their hands 

Our non wagyu a different story, I asked how much for the Bull, he suggested 17k when I said ok 17k as we are in danger of becoming overstocked he changed to that is the price at the market, he could not pay that for the Bull 

He offered 8k for a Brahman/wagyu x Angus heifer stirk 

At this point I figured as above he was only interested in quick turnaround Wagyu did not want to be left holding other breeds, but would minimise the risk by offering rock bottom prices ????

For now we are just going to grow our stock at the prices offered we may delay the inevitable poor price but can't see them dropping any further given they will continue to gain size and weight 

The reason I would have let the bull go is as I said we are in danger of becoming overstocked coupled with the fact he is costing on hand feed, but not desperate enough to let him go when there is still money in growing him 

In my opinion ????

 

 

 

 

[473geo]

Another potential local buyer turned up to look at the bull, my wife and I agreed offer the same as the other guy 17k take him away, he offered 16k so no go ????

20 minutes later the original dealer calls back, prices have dropped can offer 14k, now that would make the 16k offer look quite good ???? an aroma of fish wafted across the Surin rice fields ????

In the end the bull is 14 months old being s Charollais x has a bit of growing in it yet, then can come inside during the wet rice growing season and get some condition on with hand feed and fresh cut grass so all good ????

 

[kickstart]

We sold our 13-month-old Angus X Brahman/Thai Native for 33K, last month.

January last year we sold Beefmaster X Brahman/Thia Native, older brother to the above, about same age and condition we got 39k for him .

Shows how the market has dropped, dairy cattle have dropped even more, that is all to do with feed cost going up.

[473geo]

If prices stay low might be a thought to do a home kill and fill a freezer ???? currently buy pork at 200 baht kg and minimum 158 baht for skinless leg or shoulder 

Trouble is we don't eat beef currently ????

[473geo]

So today another buyer shows up prepared to pay 17k for the bull, but wants the heifer for 5k to take both, or will take the heifer for the asking price of 9k wife says no sale for heifer only at 9k 

I get the impression 17k for the bull is on the mark, and 9k for the heifer also, when this guy turned up wife agreed to negotiate what we think is a fair price for both 26k or no sale, but we would take 17k the bull as the heifer is small and young 

My wife thinks people are talking to each other shall we say regarding the 16k offer for the bull where I stuck on bottom price 17k

 

It's all good fun, I used to buy calves at markets for my boss and another farmer in my youth so know well how dealers work, indeed often bought from dealers before or after the markets, after if the price I bid in the market was rejected would offer more later for a top quality calf which is the product I was instructed to buy ????

 

Let me say this, I am aware our cattle being viewed are not classy top of the range, and not the most sought after such as wagyu, but I know enough about cattle to forsee not a stunning, but a decent end beef product ????

So my calculation in a year the bull should get to the 400kgs live weight at 65 baht a kg that makes him worth 26k spend 5k on feed he leaves 4k profit on our asking price 

Thats my thinking, there is money in him for the next guy, maybe with better grazing land than us little need for hand feed 

 

Quite happy for input from others to evaluate my thinking ????

 

 

[kickstart]

2 hours ago, 473geo said:

So today another buyer shows up prepared to pay 17k for the bull, but wants the heifer for 5k to take both, or will take the heifer for the asking price of 9k wife says no sale for heifer only at 9k 

I get the impression 17k for the bull is on the mark, and 9k for the heifer also, when this guy turned up wife agreed to negotiate what we think is a fair price for both 26k or no sale, but we would take 17k the bull as the heifer is small and young 

My wife thinks people are talking to each other shall we say regarding the 16k offer for the bull where I stuck on bottom price 17k

 

It's all good fun, I used to buy calves at markets for my boss and another farmer in my youth so know well how dealers work, indeed often bought from dealers before or after the markets, after if the price I bid in the market was rejected would offer more later for a top quality calf which is the product I was instructed to buy ????

 

Let me say this, I am aware our cattle being viewed are not classy top of the range, and not the most sought after such as wagyu, but I know enough about cattle to forsee not a stunning, but a decent end beef product ????

So my calculation in a year the bull should get to the 400kgs live weight at 65 baht a kg that makes him worth 26k spend 5k on feed he leaves 4k profit on our asking price 

Thats my thinking, there is money in him for the next guy, maybe with better grazing land than us little need for hand feed 

 

Quite happy for input from others to evaluate my thinking ????

 

 

 Any chance of some photo, these prices seem cheap to me, it sometimes makes me think that dealers get together, but saying that if one dealer finds some cheap cattle, he will certainly not let anyone else know. 

What are you feeding your cattle, that is where the money is made, or loss.

A bit off topic I live in a big dairy cow area about 100 ton /day of milk is produced ,a lot of dairy  farmers are giving up ,main reason is the high price of concentrate feed as I said before the cows diet being concentrate and rice straw as a main roughage sauce ,rice straw being a very low quality feed they is a high concentrate usage to get the milk yield ,hence famers selling up.

Milk, farm gate price, is about depending on quality, 19 baht/kg @12kg day 228baht day concentrate is 11-12 baht/kg cows can eat on average 6 kg? day =72baht plus rice straw minerals, water electric, then the big cost feeding dry cows, heifers, calves, vet/med and AI, bank borrowing.  

 I have said for some years grow some good quality grass, you can reduce your concentrate costs, cow should give some more milk (now the average yield per cow is 12-14kg /day) and it will improve the big, big infertility problem.

Back to beef, same thing, grows good quality grass not Nappier or Ruize, plenty more verities about your growth rates will increase, you get to sell the cattle quicker for less imputes.

As I was told 30+ years ago grass is the cheapest form of feed for cattle.