Volatile and expensive baht a problem for the economy, could be subject to speculative trading

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, JimmyJ said:

"Later, when the price of oil on the international markets normalise and the price of oil falls, consumer prices will be higher than they would otherwise be as the <deleted>el subsidy fund is replenished. "

 

The Fuel Stabilization Fund takes out bank loans to refund itself.

 

Why are Consumer prices now higher than they would otherwise be?

 

 

 

 

Because the price of oil remains higher than its long term average which I think is USD 60, today it's over USD 80. I'm not sure if consumers are yet paying some money back into the Fund but I doubt it.

[nigelforbes]

Just now, jacko45k said:

Nothing wrong with that..... it can act as self insurance for medical needs! Saves paying many thousands for more restrictive cover!

I still buy health insurance, I stopped self insuring when visa's extensions began to be threatened if we didn't have it.

[Des1]

On 2/11/2023 at 8:06 AM, nigelforbes said:

I agree, nobody has ever volunteered how that is done. The BIG problem is that most people think of the definition of currency manipulation in a very narrow and literal way. The truth is that Thailand, like Switzerland and Germany and many other countries, all can be said to manipulate their currency using trade as a vehicle where exports exceeding imports. Only the US Fed thinks that is manipulation, well, and a few posters on AN, everyone else thinks that's a trade imbalance.

 

There's an interesting chart in the link below explaining trade vs currency manipulation and the countries the Fed thinks are manipulators, it will make you chuckle..

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

Not sure where to post this .. it could rate as the difinitive explanation of baht activity in the forex world...

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1283942-the-baht-thread/

 

[zzaa09]

Do gold bars or bullion still work....??

????

[nigelforbes]

28 minutes ago, Des1 said:

Not sure where to post this .. it could rate as the difinitive explanation of baht activity in the forex world...

 

https://aseannow.com/topic/1283942-the-baht-thread/

 

Um, that's my thread you just posted, but thanks anyway.

[Des1]

18 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Um, that's my thread you just posted, but thanks anyway.

Well, I hope you appreciate the compliment. ???? When I saw all the nonsense being expressed on this thread I thought about you, although not your name.

[ikke1959]

On 2/11/2023 at 8:06 AM, nigelforbes said:

The truth is that Thailand, like Switzerland and Germany and many other countries,

I am sure you missed something.... Germany is part of the Euro and doesn't have its own currency anymore since 2001

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

I am sure you missed something.... Germany is part of the Euro and doesn't have its own currency anymore since 2001

I know from our past discussions that you don't like to click on links to read associated and supportive detail but in the case you really have to. There are three criteria against which currency manipulation is measured, foreign currency intervention is just one of the three. Despite Germany being part of the EU, the countries that import from Germany agree their contracts with Germany, not the EU.

 

One third of the way down the page in the link below is a chart, click on the link and see a list of all the countries involved in so called currency manipulation, against the three criteria. What are the other two criteria? Click on the link and find out! 

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

[nigelforbes]

23 minutes ago, chaila said:

ikke zeg wit ,nigel zegt zwart

White!

[ikke1959]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I know from our past discussions that you don't like to click on links to read associated and supportive detail but in the case you really have to. There are three criteria against which currency manipulation is measured, foreign currency intervention is just one of the three. Despite Germany being part of the EU, the countries that import from Germany agree their contracts with Germany, not the EU.

 

One third of the way down the page in the link below is a chart, click on the link and see a list of all the countries involved in so called currency manipulation, against the three criteria. What are the other two criteria? Click on the link and find out! 

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

I think that the ECB wlll surely control this....no need to worry, but the US always think they have all knowledge and power unfortunately..Anyway I don't care the future will show it...as you claimed that thestrong THb is god for the economy and now exporters are complaining about the strong THb as I said already...a too expensive THB is only good for international companies, but not for the normal economy.. tourists, hotels, silk and orchid exporters etc as I told you already...If I have to buy things in Thailand it is more expensive with the strong tHB and when I get my salary or pension, I get less income, both not good for the economy but only for people with the big money....They want to profit 2 times.... 

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

I think that the ECB wlll surely control this....no need to worry, but the US always think they have all knowledge and power unfortunately..Anyway I don't care the future will show it...as you claimed that thestrong THb is god for the economy and now exporters are complaining about the strong THb as I said already...a too expensive THB is only good for international companies, but not for the normal economy.. tourists, hotels, silk and orchid exporters etc as I told you already...If I have to buy things in Thailand it is more expensive with the strong tHB and when I get my salary or pension, I get less income, both not good for the economy but only for people with the big money....They want to profit 2 times.... 

I didn't say that a strong THB is good for the economy, where did I say that?

 

What I said is that the ideal exchange rate for USD/THB is in the range 31/34, ideally 32/33, which is neither strong nor weak.

[ikke1959]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I didn't say that a strong THB is good for the economy, where did I say that?

 

What I said is that the ideal exchange rate for USD/THB is in the range 31/34, ideally 32/33, which is neither strong nor weak.

a few weeks back.. we had a almost similar discussion..

 

[nigelforbes]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

a few weeks back.. we had a almost similar discussion..

 

WEll unless you can quote me, we wont be having any more! Regardless, that is not something I would say so I think we're done here.

[ikke1959]

5 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

WEll unless you can quote me, we wont be having any more! Regardless, that is not something I would say so I think we're done here.

I will try to find it but I said the same that the expensive THB is bad for orchid  and silk exporters, but you said that it was good for internationals as they could keep theirUSD and wait for the THB to weaken... But I will try to find your post   

 

In tyhis article at least it is veryclear that you defends the strong THB :

 

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by ikke1959

[nigelforbes]

11 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

I will try to find it but I said the same that the expensive THB is bad for orchid  and silk exporters, but you said that it was good for internationals as they could keep theirUSD and wait for the THB to weaken... But I will try to find your post   

 

In tyhis article at least it is veryclear that you defends the strong THB :

 

 

I don't think you and I can discuss this subject any longer ikke because you seem to have this remarkable ability to read things that aren't there! This will be my last post directed solely towards you.

 

My role here is to explain fact to whoever wants to read it, not to express my opinion. You have zero idea what my opinion and beliefs are on the Thai economy, I haven't told you because nobody's interested, quite rightly too. You on the other hand seem far less interested in understanding the facts in order to form an opinion, instead your starting point, like so many other people, is making the facts fit your opinion....hence your reluctance to open links to obtain new information. Strangely,  you also keen to challenge my opinion and argue with me, despite me  not saying what my opinion is! I've explained all the facts to you and I've given you links to other sources of information so that you can learn more, what you do with them is up to you. Goodbye. 

[ikke1959]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I don't think you and I can discuss this subject any longer ikke because you seem to have this remarkable ability to read things that aren't there! This will be my last post directed solely towards you.

 

My role here is to explain fact to whoever wants to read it, not to express my opinion. You have zero idea what my opinion and beliefs are on the Thai economy, I haven't told you because nobody's interested, quite rightly too. You on the other hand seem far less interested in understanding the facts in order to form an opinion, instead your starting point, like so many other people, is making the facts fit your opinion....hence your reluctance to open links to obtain new information. Strangely,  you also keen to challenge my opinion and argue with me, despite me  not saying what my opinion is! I've explained all the facts to you and I've given you links to other sources of information so that you can learn more, what you do with them is up to you. Goodbye. 

because all you talk is about the big money.. i seems you are in service of the BOT of the Government or you are an American ... Good you don't discuss with me anymore because it makes no sense with you...I told you that sisilk an orchid exporters don't benefit from the expensive THB I can't fin the thread anymore but I will keep looking for it and you said it was not about them but the big companies... Sorry if you don't recall that, as I have a very good memory...And I told you that I don't care about the big internationals because if I have to import orchids or silk or whatever I have to pay more by a strong THB and I will look for other suppliers .. and you said it is not about them but the big ones who can keep the THB and when the THB weakend or on request of the BOT they can change and have more profit, but a normal exporter can;t do that...Sorry that you can't understand that. And nobody cares how Thailand calculate the THB.. It is the price they have to pay and the THB is very overpriced.....

Edited February 13, 2023 by ikke1959

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

because all you talk is about the big money.. i seems you are in service of the BOT of the Government or you are an American ... Good you don't discuss with me anymore because it makes no sense with you...I told you that sisilk an orchid exporters don't benefit from the expensive THB I can't fin the thread anymore but I will keep looking for it and you said it was not about them but the big companies... Sorry if you don't recall that, as I have a very good memory...And I told you that I don't care about the big internationals because if I have to import orchids or silk or whatever I have to pay more by a strong THB and I will look for other suppliers .. and you said it is not about them but the big ones who can keep the THB and when the THB weakend or on request of the BOT they can change and have more profit, but a normal exporter can;t do that...Sorry that you can't understand that

I'm sorry that you only see the small picture and not the big one, the thread is after all about everyone's THB, not just yours.

[metisdead]

Some posts with charts that were copy and pasted from some sources without providing a link to the source of the charts have been removed as well as the replies.  Please provide a link to the source of information when posting. 

[notrub]

Currency speculators are a baine to society.  They add nothing -zero- to the well being of the world and often undermine the stability of targeted countries.  How much money was made (by currency traders) during the specular multi billion GBP crash caused by UK's Liz Truss?  Every slight 'jiggle' in the charts are profit points for these persons.

 

They should be banned; yet they are respected members of society thanks to their wealth and friends in high places (bought and paid for).

[gamb00ler]

1 hour ago, notrub said:

Currency speculators are a baine to society.  They add nothing -zero- to the well being of the world and often undermine the stability of targeted countries.

The commodity and currency futures market provide an essential service to companies that need to buy or sell the underlying commodity in the future.  The speculators help reduce the risk that those producers and consumers of commodities face in determining their future costs or profits.  Those businesses can determine the price of a commodity at some point in the future and plan accordingly.

[proton]

I'd say Nigel knows what he's on about, very interesting.