China’s new foreign minister warns of certain US-Chinese war if Washington fails to reverse course

[AndyFoxy]

22 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

Djibouti is one, Cambodia is another.  They are attempting to establish one in the Solomon Islands.  And the sovereignty of the artificial islands in the South China Sea are in dispute.  The Belt and Road Initiative has given the Chinese a foothold in Sri Lanka and Pakistan and other Central Asian countries.

Don’t forget the String of Pearls as well. 

[Mickeymaus]

If China wants the US would end in a total economic and financial desaster. China would suffer too but their people are more used to this and they are easier to control.

[placeholder]

26 minutes ago, Hummin said:

We can only hope China have learned something in retrospective from Usa and Russias/Soviet influence in their regions, and how that failed, and will use other methods to reach their goals. 

 

 

So far, they show no sign of contrition or a rethink.

 

Palawan fishers report continuing Chinese harassment

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/209877/palawan-fishers-report-continuing-chinese-harassment

 

The Philippines accuses a Chinese ship of aiming a laser at a Filipino boat crew

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/13/1156475789/the-philippines-accuses-a-chinese-ship-of-aiming-a-laser-at-a-filipino-boat-crew

[internationalism]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Correct. Though China has more boats, the US boats are far superior than the Chinese junk, and they are long range. China would be wiped out quickly in a naval battle with the US, or even the UK. 

 

Which means they would have to resort to alternative means to win, such as hacking and cyber warfare. Nuclear is off the table. Only Putin would be crazy enough to try, and it would be the end of Russia. 

if you care to look at graphic 1 on page 5 you can see china's theatre-range missile capabilities. That is from 2019. There are newer reports, but behind paywall.

China doesn't have to send their boats to confront incoming american ones. They have 9 types of rockets with over 1000km capability. They don't state how many each, but the usa comparison is poor.

https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/leveling-the-playing-field-reintroducing-us-theater-range-missiles-in-a-post-INF-world/publication/1 

 

if you don't want to read here is 55 minutes video from the very same presentation

https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/leveling-the-playing-field-reintroducing-us-theater-range-missiles-in-a-post-INF-world/publication/2

Edited March 12, 2023 by internationalism

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, internationalism said:

if you care to look at graphic 1 on page 5 you can see china's theatre-range missile capabilities. That is from 2019. There are newer reports, but behind paywall.

China doesn't have to send their boats to confront incoming american ones. They have 9 types of rockets with over 1000km capability. They don't state how many each, but the usa comparison is poor.

https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/leveling-the-playing-field-reintroducing-us-theater-range-missiles-in-a-post-INF-world/publication/1 

 

if you don't want to read here is 55 minutes video from the very same presentation

https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/leveling-the-playing-field-reintroducing-us-theater-range-missiles-in-a-post-INF-world/publication/2

I read similar previously. The US has supremacy on the seas, their aircraft carriers give them the ability to put planes near to the Chinese mainland and consequently give them air superiority too. The Chinese strategy has been to develop rocket deterrents that will push the American carriers further from their shores thus denying them airborne superiority. Any war is likely to be fought at arms length.

[sscc]

9 hours ago, DaLa said:

I'm almost with you, certainly if the UK can defend its sovereignty of the Falklands then why not?  My main question though is what does China expect to gain from 'claiming' the territory. 

 

I'm not that great a history buff to question China's interest in Taiwan, only that after WW2 the island was places under Chinese Governance. So at some point the Taiwanese had that 'forced' on them so on that basis it could be argued Taiwan should have the benefit of independence.  

 

Isn't politics such a wonderful contribution to humanity.

 

FOOTNOTE...a nice country to visit, Taiwan that is.

 

" My main question though is what does China expect to gain from 'claiming' the territory. "

 

 

China internal civil war in 1946-49  resulting in two governments - one in Beijing and one in Taipei - after 1949 both claiming to legitimately represent China.

 

Official change happened in United Nation voting in Oct 1971.    Taipei Government under Chiang was in UN from 1949-71 ,   and Beijing Government  under Mao then replaced it in UN from 1971-  onward.. 

 

Fast forward from those days to  November 2015 Singapore,  while Beijing Mr. Xi   was meeting  Taipei Mr. Ma face to face,  the protocol arrangement was essentially still the same as back in the Beijing Mao Vs Taipei Chiang days in 1950/60's.   ( henceforth each officially  addressed  the other Mister Mr.  in Singapore meeting. )

 

\Both Mainland and Taiwan had been part of China for several centuries.

Therefore Mainlanders see as a mandate to take and integrate Taiwan,  and vice versa Taiwanese see as a mandate to take and integrate Mainland ( at least during 1950/60/70 Chiang  era )   

 

As to that independent Taiwan scenario,  USA had enquired to help Taiwan Chiang to form an independent country in 1950's,   Taiwan Chiang rejected. 

 

Confusing or not ? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ozimoron]

7 hours ago, Hummin said:

I truly believe China main goals is the make the neighbors friends, giving them opportunities they can not turn down. Also seen history in retrospect, what is left with the forced friendship with the west except economic rise and technology? 

 

Most countries shed blood and the young generations wasted after ww2 and the post wars in the region. 

 

Japan is the only and maybe strongest Allie in the region, the rest is tired of the control and influence. 

Philippines has just given the US the go ahead to build a large navy base in the north, close to Taiwan.

[farmerjo]

27 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Philippines has just given the US the go ahead to build a large navy base in the north, close to Taiwan.

Also Japan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-16/japan-ishigaki-military-base-remilitarisation-counter-china/101869542

[heybruce]

13 hours ago, Hummin said:

I truly believe China main goals is the make the neighbors friends, giving them opportunities they can not turn down. Also seen history in retrospect, what is left with the forced friendship with the west except economic rise and technology? 

 

Most countries shed blood and the young generations wasted after ww2 and the post wars in the region. 

 

Japan is the only and maybe strongest Allie in the region, the rest is tired of the control and influence. 

Do you see China's claiming of water and islands that lie within internationally agreed territorial boundaries of other nations as being a friendly gesture?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/11/2023 at 3:31 PM, spidermike007 said:

China is facing major financial issues, that could eventually collapse the entire CCP. The extent of the issues within the banking sector, and the amount of private debt is staggering. 

All of which IMO makes war against Taiwan more likely. IMO governments like a war to unite a country and take people's minds off internal problems.

 

Up to me, I'd be arming Taiwan with as many anti aircraft and anti ship missiles as possible. If China can't get there, they can't invade.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I read similar previously. The US has supremacy on the seas, their aircraft carriers give them the ability to put planes near to the Chinese mainland and consequently give them air superiority too. The Chinese strategy has been to develop rocket deterrents that will push the American carriers further from their shores thus denying them airborne superiority. Any war is likely to be fought at arms length.

Hmmmmm. IMO hypersonic missiles make US aircraft carriers just large targets.

Far as I'm concerned just give Taiwan the means to deny China the ability to land there, and put all essential services deep underground against ballistic missile attack.

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, internationalism said:

China doesn't have to send their boats to confront incoming american ones.

Perhaps not, but rockets can not defeat the Taiwanese alone. They would have to put boots on the ground to do that.

[bangon04]

17 hours ago, Hummin said:

I truly believe China main goals is the make the neighbors friends, giving them opportunities they can not turn down.

yes that is certainly part of the CCP strategy........

[bangon04]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps not, but rockets can not defeat the Taiwanese alone. They would have to put boots on the ground to do that.

well the Russians seem to consider it a "victory" to obliterate the civilian infrastructure of the neighbor it claims to want to save. Maybe the CCP will feel obliged to lay waste to Taiwan to prove its commitment to the one China policy..... They are watching the russian progress with interest.

[placeholder]

27 minutes ago, bangon04 said:

well the Russians seem to consider it a "victory" to obliterate the civilian infrastructure of the neighbor it claims to want to save. Maybe the CCP will feel obliged to lay waste to Taiwan to prove its commitment to the one China policy..... They are watching the russian progress with interest.

About 2000 years ago, the Roman historian Tacitus summarized the outcome of Rome's war on Carthage this way: "They created a desert, and called it peace."

[cncltd1973]

On 3/11/2023 at 8:21 AM, internationalism said:

over thousands years, since neolithic, they have invented many ground braking technologies - paper, print, gun powder, compass, artillery, banknote, bomb, toothbrush.

Full list of hundred pages, you can catch up with history, which you missed in your school studies

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

except that 75 million Chinese died from Mao's communist agenda, including the dissenters and free thinkers that would have continued to innovate and discover. the Red Terror of Russia and China have left them with only yes men that can't think outside the box and so they are decades behind the west where innovation hasn't ceased. for the moment, all China can do infiltrate, reverse engineer and copy

[sscc]

2 hours ago, cncltd1973 said:

except that 75 million Chinese died from Mao's communist agenda, including the dissenters and free thinkers that would have continued to innovate and discover. the Red Terror of Russia and China have left them with only yes men that can't think outside the box and so they are decades behind the west where innovation hasn't ceased. for the moment, all China can do infiltrate, reverse engineer and copy

cncltd1973  :    " all China can do infiltrate, reverse engineer and copy "

You think this is all China can do ???

Is  China still backward as the time of Mao  ?

 

Turning from totally disarray and absolutely dirt poor in 1970's  ( Mao died in 1976 )   to No. 2 in the world nowadays,  How and  Why ?   Obviously you know Zip about it. 

  

[sscc]

On 3/12/2023 at 3:46 AM, Hummin said:

I truly believe China main goals is the make the neighbors friends, giving them opportunities they can not turn down. Also seen history in retrospect, what is left with the forced friendship with the west except economic rise and technology? 

 

Most countries shed blood and the young generations wasted after ww2 and the post wars in the region. 

 

Japan is the only and maybe strongest Allie in the region, the rest is tired of the control and influence. 

 

So called "Globe South" is sick and tired of USA control, and influence. 

Latest turnaround was USA long-time and one of strongest allie  Saudi Arabia -- signing agreement with Iran, long-time USA enemy, few days ago.  

(  ASEANNOW Website did not bother in reporting ) 

[sscc]

On 3/11/2023 at 5:20 AM, nigelforbes said:

The East operating to its own economic and trade framework and growing at one speed whilst the West is operating to a different set of rules, and growing at a different rate of knots.

 

Barring WW3,   Current twenty first Century is Rise of the East Century while the empire is in a downward spiral. 

[candide]

1 hour ago, sscc said:

 

So called "Globe South" is sick and tired of USA control, and influence. 

Latest turnaround was USA long-time and one of strongest allie  Saudi Arabia -- signing agreement with Iran, long-time USA enemy, few days ago.  

(  ASEANNOW Website did not bother in reporting ) 

To be free of control and influence is not really achievable for many countries which are not powerful enough. Then the issue is which is the "least bad" influence. What is worse, to be under U.S. influence, or to be under Chinese influence?

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, cncltd1973 said:

except that 75 million Chinese died from Mao's communist agenda, including the dissenters and free thinkers that would have continued to innovate and discover. the Red Terror of Russia and China have left them with only yes men that can't think outside the box and so they are decades behind the west where innovation hasn't ceased. for the moment, all China can do infiltrate, reverse engineer and copy

This is nonsense. 

 

China takes ‘stunning lead’ in key technological research, think tank says

From artificial intelligence to robotics, China is beating Western democracies in research output on 37 out of 44 technological areas deemed critical for economic growth and military power over the coming decades, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said in a recently released report.

By often producing more than five times as many highly cited research papers as its closest competitor — typically the United States — China is not only further ahead in more areas than previously realized but has also built the foundations to position itself as the world’s leading science and technology superpower, the Canberra-based think tank revealed.

This “sometimes stunning lead” stretches to critical domains, including defense, space, robotics, energy, the environment, advanced materials, AI and key quantum technology areas, according to the report’s authors, who tracked and analyzed the most-cited research publications in each of the 44 fields over the past five years.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/03/03/world/china-lead-tech/

[placeholder]

6 hours ago, sscc said:

 

Barring WW3,   Current twenty first Century is Rise of the East Century while the empire is in a downward spiral. 

Actually, probably not. Under Xi the CCP has been doing its best to strangle market based economy in China. It has increasingly favored state industries which typically run deficits. The govt has imposed taxes on the free market sector of the economy to subsidize those deficits. It has a huge youth unemployment problem thanks to misallocation of resources.  And the danger of this centralized control was typified in China's response to Covid. It's inflexibility ended up turning China's covid response from a triumph into a disaster. And typical of a totalitarian government,  even though it sharply reversed course, it still claimed infallibility. As Xi increases CCP control over the economy, the outlook doesn't look so great for China.

[Adumbration]

I started a topic with this exact headline nearly a year ago.  I was ridiculed by most members.

 

The second war kicks off with China Australia will lose access to 70 -80% of its export markets.  Australia dollar will be trading below 50c USD.

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I started a topic with this exact headline nearly a year ago.  I was ridiculed by most members.

 

The second war kicks off with China Australia will lose access to 70 -80% of its export markets.  Australia dollar will be trading below 50c USD.

False. Australia got along very well after China boycotted Australia. . Australia didn't even meet one of China's 14 demands. China failed to impose its will on Australia.

 

China and Australia are going back to business, without illusions

China was keen to make an example of Australia to make sure others did not go astray, but it did not work.

Australia's new center-left government addressed none of the 14 grievances before Albanese's meeting in Bali and has no intention of doing so.

China's trade restrictions remain in place, but affected sectors have found new markets elsewhere. 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-and-Australia-are-going-back-to-business-without-illusions

 

China’s economic sanctions made Australia more confident

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-s-economic-sanctions-made-australia-more-confident

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, sscc said:

 

So called "Globe South" is sick and tired of USA control, and influence. 

Latest turnaround was USA long-time and one of strongest allie  Saudi Arabia -- signing agreement with Iran, long-time USA enemy, few days ago.  

(  ASEANNOW Website did not bother in reporting ) 

Well, I for one and extremely happy to have the US on our side "down south", as they are a zillion % better to be associated with than China, and they are our only hope to stop China taking us over.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

I started a topic with this exact headline nearly a year ago.  I was ridiculed by most members.

 

The second war kicks off with China Australia will lose access to 70 -80% of its export markets.  Australia dollar will be trading below 50c USD.

The second war? Did I miss a war a while back? Do tell us when the first one was, please.

[daveAustin]

The Chinese are funny. They do not have the enthusiasm, experience or mettle to properly take on the big boys and potentially risk all. It is all hot air for-domestic consumption… their affairs are currently a mess. Even Taiwan—as much as it pains them—would risk crippling sanctions just for, what, a bit of face and some chips? I think not. Do what you do best; keep on copying / stealing intel and making lots of money, but be careful what you wish for.

[cncltd1973]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

This is nonsense. 

 

China takes ‘stunning lead’ in key technological research, think tank says

From artificial intelligence to robotics, China is beating Western democracies in research output on 37 out of 44 technological areas deemed critical for economic growth and military power over the coming decades, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said in a recently released report.

By often producing more than five times as many highly cited research papers as its closest competitor — typically the United States — China is not only further ahead in more areas than previously realized but has also built the foundations to position itself as the world’s leading science and technology superpower, the Canberra-based think tank revealed.

This “sometimes stunning lead” stretches to critical domains, including defense, space, robotics, energy, the environment, advanced materials, AI and key quantum technology areas, according to the report’s authors, who tracked and analyzed the most-cited research publications in each of the 44 fields over the past five years.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/03/03/world/china-lead-tech/

the progress China has made recently was from infiltrating and copying, I'm thinking specifically of the wave of Chinese enrollment in Harvard that was part of their gov't program to infiltrate, learn and implement back in China. that happened 10+ years ago, and the reverse engineering and copying that they are actively doing now. do you think they made all this progress in house, in their own universities? Harvard specifically changed criteria because the Chinese were enrolling enmass. their scores for rote memory were better than westerners but they were lacking in EQ and problem solving. whatever they learned in our universities is serving them well now, they are quickly making up for lost time

[placeholder]

39 minutes ago, cncltd1973 said:

the progress China has made recently was from infiltrating and copying, I'm thinking specifically of the wave of Chinese enrollment in Harvard that was part of their gov't program to infiltrate, learn and implement back in China. that happened 10+ years ago, and the reverse engineering and copying that they are actively doing now. do you think they made all this progress in house, in their own universities? Harvard specifically changed criteria because the Chinese were enrolling enmass. their scores for rote memory were better than westerners but they were lacking in EQ and problem solving. whatever they learned in our universities is serving them well now, they are quickly making up for lost time

Backtracking much? Remember this?

"for the moment, all China can do infiltrate, reverse engineer and copy"

[candide]

9 hours ago, cncltd1973 said:

the progress China has made recently was from infiltrating and copying, I'm thinking specifically of the wave of Chinese enrollment in Harvard that was part of their gov't program to infiltrate, learn and implement back in China. that happened 10+ years ago, and the reverse engineering and copying that they are actively doing now. do you think they made all this progress in house, in their own universities? Harvard specifically changed criteria because the Chinese were enrolling enmass. their scores for rote memory were better than westerners but they were lacking in EQ and problem solving. whatever they learned in our universities is serving them well now, they are quickly making up for lost time

They have relied extensively on copying western technology, but have also significantly improved their domestic R&D capabilities. They have followed a path which is similar to Japan or SK, and now have reached the domestic innovation stage in many domains. On top of it, there are many people, so it's not that difficult to extract enough top scientists and engineers from such a mass of people. Not to mention a captive market which is huge enough to make investment profitable. t's just a question of time and they are fast.

Edited March 16, 2023 by candide