“Shy Prayut” Voters or “Scared Prayut” Voters? Election Polls: Accuracy and Bias

[Sunderland]

8 minutes ago, BenStark said:

Too many potheads in Thailand

But the people are not voting much for Bhumjaithai on the party list. 

[BenStark]

3 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

Here is an example:

Surat Thani (area 6)

 

Constituency:
1 BJT 793

2 UTN 361

3 MF 140

4 PT  87

5 Dems 46

Party List:
1 MF 390
2 UTN 358
3 PT 137
4 Dems 120
5 BJT 95

BJT 793 (Con) 95 (Party)
MF 140 (Con) 390 (Party)

Lots of this to be seen at the Election Commission's webiste: https://www.ectreport.com/overview

From that post of yours it looks to me that the new PM will be same as the old one

[kickstart]

6 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Hopefully that's a five finger ottoman slap the same as Erdogan will get today ???? 

It would be nice, but I would suspect Erdogan will get in again, but with all the corruption talk about building regs after the devastating earthquake may be not.

Like Pyayat has done a lot for the country ..........wait....look at Bangkok big extension of the BTS train system, in my area we now have more roads with tarmac on than in the past 10 yeas plus a lot of other areas the same. brought in the But- Khon- John, poor persons welfare card helped a good few people. 

Not popular with the younger voters  but like Erdogan got they feet under the desk could well take some shifting. 

[edwinchester]

10 hours ago, steven100 said:

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, goodbye

[MrMojoRisin]

10 hours ago, steven100 said:

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

He's holding up a finger for each vote he expects to receive.

[asf6]

46 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

Bhumjaithai are predicted to win 63 of the 400 constituency seats despite having 1/7 - 1/8 of the votes that both Move Forward and Pheu Thai are getting on the party list voting. So their share of the party list vote is way down, but they are winning more constituencies than last time (39). How does that make any sense???

People get two votes: one vote for a constituency MP and the other vote for the party list. They can vote for the same party with both votes or for different parties. Up to them. But, the main thing about the party list is that there are only 100 seats available so for a party to get a party list MP elected, they have to achieve a certain number of votes - 1% of the total votes cast in the whole country for a single party list MP elected. So if 45 million people vote, a party has to get 450,000 votes just to get one party list candidate elected. If Bhumjaithai are getting 1/7 - 1/8 of the votes that both Move Forward and Pheu Thai are getting on the party list voting, they will not get as many party list MPs elected as the other two parties. I suppose the party list system favours the major parties. However, for the constituency votes, a candidate just has to beat the other parties’ candidates in a constituency. Constituency votes reflect the will of the locals whereas the party list votes reflects more the will of the nation as a whole. 

[BenStark]

Do I understand correct that if predictions are correct, this means that PT and MF together have more than 50% of the seats, and are gonna form the new government?

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

[Kinnock]

9 minutes ago, BenStark said:

Do I understand correct that if predictions are correct, this means that PT and MF together have more than 50% of the seats, and are gonna form the new government?

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

My understanding is that they need much more than 50% to overcome the rigged election .... as 250 'seats' are the non elected military appointees?

 

If we factor up the votes at the 30% count stage, and assume the three military government parties of Prayuth, Prawit and Anutin form a coalition, then add in the 250 seats, it looks like the top two opposition parties combined will be about 20 seats short.

 

So may depend on how the smaller parties respond to coalition requests.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Kinnock

[HampiK]

11 minutes ago, BenStark said:

Do I understand correct that if predictions are correct, this means that PT and MF together have more than 50% of the seats, and are gonna form the new government?

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

They need 376 seats to be sure.

[asf6]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

My understanding is that they need much more than 50% to overcome the rigged election .... as 250 'seats' are the non elected military stooges?

 

If we factor up the votes at the 30% count stage, and assume the three military government parties of Prayuth, Prawit and Anutin form a coalition, then add in the 250 seats, it looks like the top two opposition parties combined will be about 20 seats short.

 

So may depend on how the smaller parties respond to coalition requests.

Those 250 seats are actually in the senate, not the house of representatives, so they are not part of the 500 elected MPs.

Their significance will/might show when it comes time to vote for the prime minster. They get a vote in that. 

[Kinnock]

1 minute ago, asf6 said:

Those 250 seats are actually in the senate, not the house of representatives, so they are not part of the 500 elected MPs.

Their significance will/might show when it comes time to vote for the prime minster. They get a vote in that. 

Ah .... thanks for the clarification.  That's what happens when I try to follow current events on Thai language news ????

 

I'd better switch back to Auntie BBC.

[BenStark]

8 minutes ago, asf6 said:

Those 250 seats are actually in the senate, not the house of representatives, so they are not part of the 500 elected MPs.

Their significance will/might show when it comes time to vote for the prime minster. They get a vote in that. 

doesn't this mean there are only 400 MP's

 

Edited May 14, 2023 by BenStark

[asf6]

Just now, BenStark said:

doesn't this mean there are only 400 MP's

 

There are 500 MPs: 400 voted in by constituencies and 100 chosen via the party list voting. What you are seeing there is the prediction for the constituency voting (คาดการณ์ ส.ส. แบ่งเขต Predicting constituency MPs).

[MikeN]

2 minutes ago, BenStark said:

doesn't this mean there are only 400 MP's

 

There are 400 constituency MPs, and another 100 from the party list (in other words, proportional representation) voted on a separate ballot paper. So people might vote for one party for the local rep, and another for the party list.

[Kinnock]

The Move Forward leader has just done a press briefing (Channel 32 now) and he's explaing in English for the international press how the two main opposition parties will have enough to form a majority government.

 

Interesting times ahead.

[BenStark]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

The Move Forward leader has just done a press briefing (Channel 32 now) and he's explaing in English for the international press how the two main opposition parties will have enough to form a majority government.

 

Interesting times ahead.

But wasn't it said that PT is not interested in a coalition with MF?

[asf6]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

The Move Forward leader has just done a press briefing (Channel 32 now) and he's explaing in English for the international press how the two main opposition parties will have enough to form a majority government.

They probably will but it's a bit early to be counting chickens methinks. About 18 million votes have been counted so far, and I reckon there's probably another 17 or 18 million more to count.

 

There are over 52 million eligible voters.

[Kinnock]

7 minutes ago, BenStark said:

But wasn't it said that PT is not interested in a coalition with MF?

I thought they'd said they would never form a coalition with any party involved in the coup government?

[pegman]

8 minutes ago, BenStark said:

But wasn't it said that PT is not interested in a coalition with MF?

I don't believe that was the case. Neitherwould work with any of the coup participants was what was stated. 

[MikeN]

according to the ectreport website the Move forward party are looking at a clean sweep of all Bangkok districts that have reported results so far, 30 out of 33 ! If there is any post election hanky-panky by the EC there is going to be a LOT of unhappy voters in BKK.

[MikeN]

12 minutes ago, BenStark said:

But wasn't it said that PT is not interested in a coalition with MF?

That was when they thought they were going to have a landslide victory, and before the MF late surge in the polls.

[BenStark]

57% of the votes counted, and MF and PT combined have more than half of them. I'm sure that if EC uses a trick to prevent them from forming the government and provide the PM, there will be a civil war.

 

The people have spoken.

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

 

[frankie11]

You just know it'll get tasty 

[Sunderland]

There are multiple constituencies in Thailand - try for yourself here https://www.ectreport.com/overview - where Bhumjaithai, Palang Prachart and the United Thai Nation Party have won constituency seats, but failed miserably in the Party List vote in the same constituency. The voting in many of these areas makes no sense. Massive numbers of votes for Anutin, Prawit or Prayuth's party for the candidate, then Move Forward and/or Pheu Thai get far and away the most votes in the Party List from the same constituency.

In the UK, it would be like voting for the Tory candidate, and then voting again for the party but putting your cross next to the Labour Party. It's pure nonsense.

[BenStark]

2 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

There are multiple constituencies in Thailand - try for yourself here https://www.ectreport.com/overview - where Bhumjaithai, Palang Prachart and the United Thai Nation Party have won constituency seats, but failed miserably in the Party List vote in the same constituency.

All this goes way over my head, and when I read the topic about the ballot design, I believe it was done that way with something in mind.

 

Anyway, going by the results this far, what is your prediction?

[asf6]

12 minutes ago, BenStark said:

57% of the votes counted, and MF and PT combined have more than half of them. I'm sure that if EC uses a trick to prevent them from forming the government and provide the PM, there will be a civil war.

 

The people have spoken.

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

 

The 57% is actually how many votes have been counted out of the total number of eligible voters (52,238,594) rather than 57% of the votes cast - unless there is a 100% turn out.  ???? 

 

If there is a 65% turnout, there will be about 34 million votes to count, so another 4 million or so still to count. In that scenario, we'd be at almost 90% counted now. 

[Sunderland]

28 minutes ago, asf6 said:

The 57% is actually how many votes have been counted out of the total number of eligible voters (52,238,594) rather than 57% of the votes cast - unless there is a 100% turn out.  ???? 

 

If there is a 65% turnout, there will be about 34 million votes to count, so another 4 million or so still to count. In that scenario, we'd be at almost 90% counted now. 

About 80-85% turnout I think.

[Sunderland]

Even in Buriram where Bhumjaithai won lots of seats most people have voted for Pheu Thai or Move Forward in the party list vote. Confusion or something else, I don't know. None of it makes sense.

[candide]

51 minutes ago, Sunderland said:

There are multiple constituencies in Thailand - try for yourself here https://www.ectreport.com/overview - where Bhumjaithai, Palang Prachart and the United Thai Nation Party have won constituency seats, but failed miserably in the Party List vote in the same constituency. The voting in many of these areas makes no sense. Massive numbers of votes for Anutin, Prawit or Prayuth's party for the candidate, then Move Forward and/or Pheu Thai get far and away the most votes in the Party List from the same constituency.

In the UK, it would be like voting for the Tory candidate, and then voting again for the party but putting your cross next to the Labour Party. It's pure nonsense.

It's probably because for the constituency vote, they vote for a person rather than for a party.

[still kicking]

MFP in front after 85% counted.