Dangerous political flux in the aftermath of the General Election is growing and poses a threat

[Eric Loh]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

There is striking evidence that amid a growing political vacuum created by political uncertainty, conservative forces in Thailand are mounting a rearguard action against the result of the May 14th General Election with a spike in online misinformation stoking fear.

In the past, the conservative forces can count on their middle class aka yellow shirts to stage demonstrations and creat an excuse for the military to stage a coup on a pretext of maintaining peace and order. This time the middle class will not be counted upon to congregate as they are part of the population against the military. 

[James26]

You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world

But when you talk about destruction
Don't you know that you can count me out (in)

Don't you know it's gonna be
All right?
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)

You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We're all doing what we can

But if you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell you is brother you have to wait

Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)

You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We'd all love to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better free your mind instead

But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow

Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)
Don't you know it's gonna be (all right)

All, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all, all right
All right, all right, all right, all right, all right

[MrMojoRisin]

2 hours ago, 2baht said:

10,000 protesters is about the best they can muster, irrelevant!

You’ve left two, maybe even three zeroes of your guess there mate.

[2baht]

13 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

You’ve left two, maybe even three zeroes of your guess there mate.

Tell me when that many people have ever protested in Thailand and not been dispersed by the army! 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2023 by 2baht

[Muzzique]

Who know what may happen in TH. Could go good or could go bad very quickly. Such is the political volatility of emerging countries. What we do know is it's a sham democracy.

 

The rich and corrupt will never hand over control as there are too many snouts in the trough. A fresh government poses a threat to them, either in cutting them out of the gravy train, or purging them.

 

If there is even a chance that their power can be compromised they will find a way to rip out the roots of the threat.

 

For me the threat of grass-roots political turmoil is still bubbling away and the voice seems to getting louder.

 

Hope for the best but plan for the worst.

 

 

[bannork]

I'm convinced the old guard have turned to Thaksin to save themselves. Pita fails to be PM, banned or Senators won't vote for him, so PT step up and Settha is elected PM with Senate support, providing MF are dropped and replaced by Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharat, etc. Included in the deal is an amnesty for Thaksin.

Signs for this possibility: Thaksin's confidence at coming back next month. The meeting of Settha and Anuthin in the UK.

The problems are public backlash and the demolition of PT's image as a democracy loving party.

[wealthychef]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

The country’s complicated and onerous legal provisions

Here, let me simplify them for you:  the wealthy get what they want, the powerful get more power, and the poor are neglected and told to mind their manners.  

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, bannork said:

I'm convinced the old guard have turned to Thaksin to save themselves. Pita fails to be PM, banned or Senators won't vote for him, so PT step up and Settha is elected PM with Senate support, providing MF are dropped and replaced by Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharat, etc. Included in the deal is an amnesty for Thaksin.

Signs for this possibility: Thaksin's confidence at coming back next month. The meeting of Settha and Anuthin in the UK.

The problems are public backlash and the demolition of PT's image as a democracy loving party.

Wow, that's some heavy, very heavy speculatory writing there Sir.  If what you write can be backed with real documents and such this would be interesting.  However, assuming you believe what you write, I will agree to disagree.

[MrMojoRisin]

52 minutes ago, 2baht said:

Tell me when that many people have ever protested in Thailand and not been dispersed by the army! 

 

 

Wait and see what happens should democracy be denied again.

[PETERTHEEATER]

8 hours ago, waders123 said:

Coup! Coup! Coup!  The Asian Koel singing it's bittersweet melodies to the world, perched on an extended limb overlooking the crowds below.

In my scenario the koel is replaced with a duck.????

[bannork]

49 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wow, that's some heavy, very heavy speculatory writing there Sir.  If what you write can be backed with real documents and such this would be interesting.  However, assuming you believe what you write, I will agree to disagree.

Okay TR, so how do you see things playing out?

[bannork]

42 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

Wait and see what happens should democracy be denied again.

I think the elite know full well a coup would be very bad news all round. They would much prefer to mute MF's rise by coopting PT to join with their boys, Bhumjaithai and Pravit and support Settha as PM.

Bring Thaksin home to please the red shirts and distract from the removal of MF in the government.

 

[Eric Loh]

11 minutes ago, bannork said:

I think the elite know full well a coup would be very bad news all round. They would much prefer to mute MF's rise by coopting PT to join with their boys, Bhumjaithai and Pravit and support Settha as PM.

Bring Thaksin home to please the red shirts and distract from the removal of MF in the government.

 

PT with BJT, PPRP and DP will never happen. Thaksin may want to come home desperately but will never go that route as it mean upsetting their base and will never get wide support. The MFP and PTP coalition is a better option and give time for PTP to re-brand. Pita has his perils but the party will survive and Sreetha could likely be the PM alternate. However I do feel that Pita will be cleared of his legal issues as the case is weak and it does seem that the military and elites really have no appetite to creat problems in the early stage of his reign.

[bannork]

12 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

PT with BJT, PPRP and DP will never happen. Thaksin may want to come home desperately but will never go that route as it mean upsetting their base and will never get wide support. The MFP and PTP coalition is a better option and give time for PTP to re-brand. Pita has his perils but the party will survive and Sreetha could likely be the PM alternate. However I do feel that Pita will be cleared of his legal issues as the case is weak and it does seem that the military and elites really have no appetite to creat problems in the early stage of his reign.

I hope you're right Eric.

[Hunz Kittisak]

8 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

I am not so sure. I think that one of the things that happened when the "new order" was established was that a deal was struck with the regime which essentially limited power in exchange for behaviour being tolerated and access to wealth. One of the side effects of this was a major split within the armed forces, both within the Army ( long riven by factions) and between the Army and Air Force. 

Limited power? 
I thought it was consolidation of power 

what with the command transfer of 2 key army units in October 2019 

[Freed1948]

11 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The losers are rebelling, EC get your finger out and give a result.

End this nonsense now.

EC you know the consequences of you inaction, so pull your finger out. The people have spoken.

[Eric Loh]

49 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

Limited power? 
I thought it was consolidation of power 

what with the command transfer of 2 key army units in October 2019 

It was reclaiming of power. Relocating the units from Bangkok is intergal in reclaiming power. 

[Hunz Kittisak]

57 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

It was reclaiming of power. Relocating the units from Bangkok is intergal in reclaiming power. 

So a coup would be hard to pull off this time round. 

[bannork]

11 minutes ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

So a coup would be hard to pull off this time round. 

Depends who orders it 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

So a coup would be hard to pull off this time round. 

I believed so because the direct command of the military has been taken away from the 3 Ps and also the re-deployment of Bangkok military units. The importance of a Privy Councillor who is no longer around is paramount. 

[KhaoYai]

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Weeks after the May 14th election a decisive result has been thrown into question with ‘roadblocks’ being erected in front of Mr Pita Limjaroenrat’s road to the Prime Minister’s office amid a sharp upsurge in dangerous and divisive political rhetoric coming from conservative factions which aim to spread fear including serious accusations that the election was interfered with by western powers with one official even indirectly comparing the Move Forward Party to Germany’s National Socialist Party in 1933.

 

In other words, a conspiracy is taking place.  Nothing new in Thailand.  I don't think there's ever been a genuine election result but when a result is so overwhelming, its hard to fix or deny.  So the only way for the 'elite' to react is to create stories and doubt in the mind of the people.

 

This time though, I think its very unwise and potentially very dangerous.  Its time for the 'elite' to count their chickens and accept that things are changing - time to pack up, count their baht and retire peacefully.

 

Are they likely to do that? Not a hope in hell and the potential for serious conflict has never been higher.  The mood amongst the Thai's that I know is pure anger.

[bannork]

1 minute ago, KhaoYai said:

In other words, a conspiracy is taking place.  Nothing new in Thailand.  I don't think there's ever been a genuine election result but when a result is so overwhelming, its hard to fix or deny.  So the only way for the 'elite' to react is to create stories and doubt in the mind of the people.

 

This time though, I think its very unwise and potentially very dangerous.  Its time for the 'elite' to count their chickens and accept that things are changing - time to pack up, count their baht and retire peacefully.

 

Are they likely to do that? Not a hope in hell and the potential for serious conflict has never been higher.  The mood amongst the Thai's that I know is pure anger.

The referee left the field some time ago. 

[KhaoYai]

15 hours ago, waders123 said:

Coup! Coup! Coup!  The Asian Koel singing it's bittersweet melodies to the world, perched on an extended limb overlooking the crowds below.

No, no, no. The army promised never to stage any more coups when they held (read imposed) a successful vote on the new constitution.  The army always keeps its promises ????.

[BTB1977]

Some of you get upset when thailand is compared to a 3rd world country.  But they are losing face everyday they block any movement forward.