What China is doing in Cuba is a big threat to all of us

[heybruce]

18 hours ago, 1happykamper said:

I ignored the Genghis Khan but. I'm talking about Modern times... 

Modern times like the 21st century?  That's the only time in the last 200 or so years in which China had the economic power and political unity to be aggressive outside its own borders.  During that time China has declared the South China Sea its own personal lake and started building military facilities on islands clearly within other countries territorial waters.

[VocalNeal]

On 7/8/2023 at 8:43 AM, Emdog said:

Good strategy by China.

US loads up Taiwan, so China loads up Cuba

Tit for tat

Cuba is a neighbour of the US. Why doesn't the US help promote Cuban growth. 

 

So, Cuba doesn't have the same political ideology. So what???? It's been long enough.

Are direct flights still off limits?

[Emdog]

3 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Cuba is a neighbour of the US. Why doesn't the US help promote Cuban growth. 

 

So, Cuba doesn't have the same political ideology. So what???? It's been long enough.

Are direct flights still off limits?

My guess is political inertia... power of Cuban exiles in Miami. And the US sugar cartel does not want cheap sugar to come in to US markets. I agree it has been more than long enough.... if embargo hasn't worked after 60+ years, maybe time to take a different approach. I know Obama tried to open things up, but then Trump came along.

Had some US friends who went to Cuba maybe a year ago, but don't know their means of getting in.

[Yellowtail]

12 minutes ago, Emdog said:

My guess is political inertia... power of Cuban exiles in Miami. And the US sugar cartel does not want cheap sugar to come in to US markets. I agree it has been more than long enough.... if embargo hasn't worked after 60+ years, maybe time to take a different approach. I know Obama tried to open things up, but then Trump came along.

Had some US friends who went to Cuba maybe a year ago, but don't know their means of getting in.

Exactly. Hopefully President Biden is able to normalize relations with the ruthless, dictatorial regime where President Obama failed.  

[candide]

3 hours ago, Emdog said:

My guess is political inertia... power of Cuban exiles in Miami. And the US sugar cartel does not want cheap sugar to come in to US markets. I agree it has been more than long enough.... if embargo hasn't worked after 60+ years, maybe time to take a different approach. I know Obama tried to open things up, but then Trump came along.

Had some US friends who went to Cuba maybe a year ago, but don't know their means of getting in.

Go through a third country.

[radiochaser]

16 hours ago, candide said:

Ok. I recognise I am not a specialist. So what would be the significant advantages drawn from being in Cuba, in terms of intelligence activities?

Monitoring of radio communications of all types, primarily it could be government but also any other communications that an intell collections agency will find useful.  Non secure comms provides a cornucopia of information about activity that could include military, financial, commerce related, finance related, aeronautical, international marine traffic, local and federal goverment etc. 

Most of the intercept would be shortwave communications.   Both encrypted and non encrypted (clear text) communications provides intell.   Most certainly the intell base in Cuba would have a radio direction finding (RDF) section with appropriate RDF equipment that would provide line of bearings (LOB) to a shortwave transmitter.   That RDF site in Cuba would be fixed, but in addition there will probably be Chinese government ships located at strategic points in the ocean that will also have RDF capabilities to enable geo location of radio transmitters.   Most of the above listed types of radio traffic at some time uses shortwave communications.  If not daily, then at some time when other means of communications fail, such as SAT COMMS.  

All commercial and many private aircraft uses both VHF and short wave radios.   That aircraft you are in when flying from your country, uses VHF on the ground to communicate with the ground control tower, but when that aircraft reaches cruising altitude or before, they switch comms to shortwave.  RDF can track that aircrafts route via RDF to locate its geographical coordinates.   The RDF you may have seen in movies is mostly an oversimplification of RDF geo locating, but sufficient to give you a good Idea of how that works.   
e.g.   Biden flies to Europe on Air Force One.  That aircraft can be tracked with RDF.   Even they must use shortwave comms to communicate with international ground to air enroute stations, stations located in every (or almost) country.   The intel base would also listen for the "squawk" from an aircrafts IFF (I forget what IFF stands for) which provides a code sent out to identify the aircraft.  

Regarding encrypted communications.   Intell collection does not need to know what is said but can discern information based on amount of activity, locations when first used, and the new locations as the transmitter is moved.  When you read about in the news or hear on radio/TV news stations about near misses of intell collection aircraft of a country, that are flying close to another country (e.g. Americans flying near China, or Russians flying near U.S.) with claims of dangerous flying, there are reasons that the intell aircraft do that.   The other country will activate certain types of defensive or offensive communications (e.g. radar, or command and control voice comms) that provides intell data.    

There are too many reasons why a Chinese intell base located in Cuba would be for intell collection for China, to use against the U.S, for me to list here..   This is just a brief bit of explanation.   

There could be upwards of 2000 Chinese military personnel stationed associated with intell collection in Cuba, if they take over the old Soviet Union / Russian intel base.   They might even be infantry trained as well.  Most assuredly, there will be non intell personnel that will provide security, logistics, etc support. 

 

[radiochaser]

7 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I heard balloons can be much better than satellites in some cases, it that correct? 

Yes, even at the altitude the balloon was at, radio communications collection may have included intercept of VHF and UHF radio transmissions, which is mostly line of sight.   That VHF radio signal you cannot receive 50 miles away a few feet above sea level, on the ground, can be intercepted more than 100 miles away from a receiver that is at a high altitude.   That is why you see so many antenna on mountain tops.   It increases the transmit and receive range for VHF and UHF radio communications. 

Edited to include, I forgot about having cameras on board the balloon platform.  If the Chinese military did not put cameras on board, to spy on ground, non communications activity, they they are very, very stupid.   

But I am sure there were cameras on board.  

As an example about cameras (pictures).   The Russians had a transmitter that was located in the Kamchatka Peninsula, which they denied having when confronted about it by someone in the State Department (SD).  The SD representative tossed pictures of the transmitter on the table.   The Russian rep responded back with, how the F did you get pictures of the transmitter, then realized he had just acknowledged there was a transmitter he denied was there a minute ago!

Now days, that picture could be faked though. But, pictures of military bases and other locations provide extremely important intell, where it is impossible to get pictures any other way.  The balloon probably had extremely good telephoto lens cameras that could read a newspaper from it's altitude!   

I know a place that has a sign at the gate, that lists prohibited items.   One is, undeveloped photographic film.   If you are on the base and found to have undeveloped film on your person, you are arrested for espionage.   Better have a very good reason for having the film if you do not want to go to prison!

[radiochaser]

On 7/8/2023 at 8:43 AM, Emdog said:

Good strategy by China.

US loads up Taiwan, so China loads up Cuba

Tit for tat

I am not going to say that the U.S. does not now have an intell base in Taiwan, but they did back in the 1970's and possibly the early 1980's, but they pulled them out.   I used to know people that worked at them. 

[stevenl]

10 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Exactly. Hopefully President Biden is able to normalize relations with the ruthless, dictatorial regime where President Obama failed.  

So you disagree with Trump who ended Obama's policies of normalsing relationship with Cuba.

[Yellowtail]

Just now, stevenl said:

So you disagree with Trump who ended Obama's policies of normalsing relationship with Cuba.

Absolutely. 

[placeholder]

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Exactly. Hopefully President Biden is able to normalize relations with the ruthless, dictatorial regime where President Obama failed.  

Obama failed? Really?

Obama Moved Aggressively to Restore Relations with Cuba

"During the presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump said he will reverse all of what he called the "concessions" President Obama made in an effort to normalize relations with Cuba, unless Havana meets certain demands.

"Those demands will include religious and political freedom for the Cuban people and the freeing of political prisoners," Trump said in Miami, home to a large Cuban population.

The real estate billionaire said "We're going to stand with the Cuban people in their fight against communist oppression."

https://www.voanews.com/a/obama-restored-relations-with-cuba/3612438.html

[stevenl]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Obama failed? Really?

Obama Moved Aggressively to Restore Relations with Cuba

"During the presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump said he will reverse all of what he called the "concessions" President Obama made in an effort to normalize relations with Cuba, unless Havana meets certain demands.

"Those demands will include religious and political freedom for the Cuban people and the freeing of political prisoners," Trump said in Miami, home to a large Cuban population.

The real estate billionaire said "We're going to stand with the Cuban people in their fight against communist oppression."

https://www.voanews.com/a/obama-restored-relations-with-cuba/3612438.html

Yellowtail already said he disagrees with Trump.

[placeholder]

55 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Yellowtail already said he disagrees with Trump.

He also said Obama failed. That was false.

[Pink Mist]

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