The UK is set for five years of "lost economic growth", with the poorest hit hardest, a think tank has warned.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said a triple blow of Brexit, Covid and the Ukraine war had badly affected the UK economy.

It added that the spending power of workers in many parts of the UK will remain below pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2024.

The BBC has contacted the Treasury for comment.

The amount of money made by the UK economy, its gross domestic product - or all the goods and services produced - is not forecast to return to 2019 levels until the second half of next year, Niesr forecast.

This weak "stuttering growth" over a five year period has widened the gap between the wealthier and poorer parts of the country, the think tank said.

 

In London, real wages are expected to be 7% higher by the end of next year than they were in 2019 - whereas in regions such as the West Midlands they are forecast to be 5% lower, its analysts said.

Despite pay increases, high inflation has forced up prices and the rising cost of living has left households throughout the UK feeling squeezed.

Niesr forecasts that inflation, the rate at which prices rise, will remain continually above the Bank of England's 2% target until early 2025, meaning the cost of living will also continue to rise. Inflation is currently 7.9%.

It means that people's wages, when taking inflation into account, would be below the level they were before the pandemic until the end of next year in "many UK regions", the think tank said.

Prof Adrian Pabst, deputy director for public policy at Niesr, said low-income households would be hit hardest, with real disposable incomes in this group falling by about 17% over the five years to 2024.

"For some of the poorest in society, coping with low or no real wage growth and persistent inflation has involved new debt to pay for permanently higher housing, energy and food costs," Prof Pabst said.

 

Last week, the Bank of England put up interest rates for the 14th time in a row as it continued with its efforts to make borrowing more expensive, dampen demand and therefore slow inflation.

 

FULL STORY

More doom and gloom predictions on the UK, later to be proven incorrect and "revised" no doubt.

 

Fact is, the UK economy is doing fine. The IMF or this think tank that I have never heard of can come up with as many "wills", "mights", "coulds", "predicts", "shoulds", "warns" as they like. Facts are facts. Project Fear never happened, they can try and talk the UK into armageddon but it simply isn't happening.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12114497/Wrong-IMF-finally-admits-Britain-WONT-recession-year.html

 

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/10/economy-grows-budget-boost-jeremy-hunt/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_psc_ppc_puzzles_pmax_2023&gclid=Cj0KCQjwz8emBhDrARIsANNJjS6bTf0RSLvm9cSUXLhkF754V9eCyU_GIdKElrxn21LZmPDWRZGSlpAaAg2bEALw_wcB

 

 

Will they ever learn?

 

 

45 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

More doom and gloom predictions on the UK, later to be proven incorrect and "revised" no doubt.

 

Fact is, the UK economy is doing fine. The IMF or this think tank that I have never heard of can come up with as many "wills", "mights", "coulds", "predicts", "shoulds", "warns" as they like. Facts are facts. Project Fear never happened, they can try and talk the UK into armageddon but it simply isn't happening.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12114497/Wrong-IMF-finally-admits-Britain-WONT-recession-year.html

 

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/10/economy-grows-budget-boost-jeremy-hunt/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_psc_ppc_puzzles_pmax_2023&gclid=Cj0KCQjwz8emBhDrARIsANNJjS6bTf0RSLvm9cSUXLhkF754V9eCyU_GIdKElrxn21LZmPDWRZGSlpAaAg2bEALw_wcB

 

 

Will they ever learn?

 

 

If the UK economy is doing so well, why is it that it hasn't yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels?

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If the UK economy is doing so well, why is it that it hasn't yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels?

It did.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/af5820bf-0af6-4228-8223-4cb79cc5a6d6

 

16 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

It did.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/af5820bf-0af6-4228-8223-4cb79cc5a6d6

 

That was a projection and it was a bit off.  UK GDP did match. not exceed, pre pandemic levels briefly for Feb and Apr of 2023. But in May it was slightly lower again.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1175538/monthly-gdp-uk/

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

More doom and gloom predictions on the UK, later to be proven incorrect and "revised" no doubt.

 

Fact is, the UK economy is doing fine. The IMF or this think tank that I have never heard of can come up with as many "wills", "mights", "coulds", "predicts", "shoulds", "warns" as they like. Facts are facts. Project Fear never happened, they can try and talk the UK into armageddon but it simply isn't happening.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12114497/Wrong-IMF-finally-admits-Britain-WONT-recession-year.html

 

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/10/economy-grows-budget-boost-jeremy-hunt/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_psc_ppc_puzzles_pmax_2023&gclid=Cj0KCQjwz8emBhDrARIsANNJjS6bTf0RSLvm9cSUXLhkF754V9eCyU_GIdKElrxn21LZmPDWRZGSlpAaAg2bEALw_wcB

 

 

Will they ever learn?

 

 

Well, the fact is that the GDP reports for 2023 show that the UK economy is currently stagnating.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1175538/monthly-gdp-uk/

5 years of lost economic growth will be the case because Labour will get into power next year.

41 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, the fact is that the GDP reports for 2023 show that the UK economy is currently stagnating.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1175538/monthly-gdp-uk/

Unlike Germany, which is in recession and is already being outperformed by the UK, and which is likely to continue to be outperformed by the UK. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/25/british-economy-outperform-germany-this-year-imf/

 

Given that the UK left the EU and Germany remained in the EU (but both suffered from Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine), it does not take an epic understanding of constants and variables to establish that leaving the EU was not the disaster it was predicted to be (well, if you exclude the impact on the German's export market...).

 

 

27 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

5 years of lost economic growth will be the case because Labour will get into power next year.

A Labour government would inflict far more damage on the country than Brexit could ever do. 

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Unlike Germany, which is in recession and is already being outperformed by the UK, and which is likely to continue to be outperformed by the UK. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/25/british-economy-outperform-germany-this-year-imf/

 

Given that the UK left the EU and Germany remained in the EU (but both suffered from Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine), it does not take an epic understanding of constants and variables to establish that leaving the EU was not the disaster it was predicted to be (well, if you exclude the impact on the German's export market...).

 

 

This thread is not about Germany - it's about the pessimism that experts have in regards to the near future of the UK economy.

 

You can try to discredit those experts all you like, but the fact remains that their assessments are considered to be valuable.  

23 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

A Labour government would inflict far more damage on the country than Brexit could ever do. 

That's what I was implying.

Rishi should call election now sort the party out while in opposition and get ready to get back in power in the 4 years or less.

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Rishi should call election now sort the party out while in opposition and get ready to get back in power in the 4 years or less.

4 years of Labour would be too much to bear. They could do massive damage in such a period.

 

I reckon he should leave the election as late as possible. Labour have a habit of losing elections that they should win (failure becomes a habit), so I'd give them as much time as possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

They might do something ridiculous like make Diane Abbott the face of their election campaign. ????

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/diane-abbotts-agonising-interview-over-policy-cost/

 

  

34 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Unlike Germany, which is in recession and is already being outperformed by the UK, and which is likely to continue to be outperformed by the UK. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/25/british-economy-outperform-germany-this-year-imf/

 

Given that the UK left the EU and Germany remained in the EU (but both suffered from Covid lockdowns and the war in Ukraine), it does not take an epic understanding of constants and variables to establish that leaving the EU was not the disaster it was predicted to be (well, if you exclude the impact on the German's export market...).

 

 

First off, there's a difference between unavoidable damage and self-inflicted damage. Germany has an economy highly dependent on exports. The sharp rise in energy costs in Europe badly damaged their competitiveness. What's more, after Covid, there was a worldwide drop in demand for goods as opposed to services. 

 

What you are also forgetting in that FT article you linked to, the major point was how Brexit had damaged the UK industrial sector. In other words, were there no Brexit, the UK would be in positive territory now.

 

So, to repeat, the German economy has been hurt by events outside of its control. The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral and by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit.

 

 

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

4 years of Labour would be too much to bear. They could do massive damage in such a period.

 

I reckon he should leave the election as late as possible. Labour have a habit of losing elections that they should win (failure becomes a habit), so I'd give them as much time as possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

They might do something ridiculous like make Diane Abbott the face of their election campaign. ????

 

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/diane-abbotts-agonising-interview-over-policy-cost/

 

  

You know that when it comes to UK politics, if someone brings up Diane Abbott, that means they've got nothing.

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You know that when it comes to UK politics, if someone brings up Diane Abbott, that means they've got nothing.

He'll be playing the Jeremy Corbyn card next ????.

 

While Tories continue to torch the UK, all that their supporters can do is clutch on to errors made in the past.

 

Never mind the current chancellor of the UK stating that prices should be going down in shops because inflation has fallen!

 

The idea that Labour, or any other party could do worse than the current bunch is laughable. I don't know how people can say it with a straight face. They either have a financial interest in this lot staying in power (shares in BP or Themes water perhaps?) or.... well the alternative is pretty obvious.

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, there's a difference between unavoidable damage and self-inflicted damage. Germany has an economy highly dependent on exports. The sharp rise in energy costs in Europe badly damaged their competitiveness. What's more, after Covid, there was a worldwide drop in demand for goods as opposed to services. 

 

What you are also forgetting in that FT article you linked to, the major point was how Brexit had damaged the UK industrial sector. In other words, were there no Brexit, the UK would be in positive territory now.

 

So, to repeat, the German economy has been hurt by events outside of its control. The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral and by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit.

 

 

Do you realize how many countries economies suffered due to Covid and the war in Ukraine? The UK is not unique in that regard, in fact they have done very well compared to many.

 

Your theory that every other country suffered due to Covid and the war, but the UK suffered due solely to Brexit is laughable. Even with Covid and the war (2 massive events and not under the control of the UK) Britain has not suffered anywhere near the extent as predicted by Project Fear. In fact, even I expected a longer period of disruption but the resilience of the economy and the speed by which we have done trade deals has been very impressive.

 

The lies about the impact of Brexit have been exposed, and your lame attempts to brush this under the carpet are failing.

12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You know that when it comes to UK politics, if someone brings up Diane Abbott, that means they've got nothing.

Oh don't worry, there are plenty more fools within the Labour Party capable of derailing their election campaign.

 

Starmer has only just worked out what a woman is. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12341781/Keir-Starmer-finally-accepts-woman-adult-female-Labour-leader-confirms-party-U-turn-gender-self-identification-admits-policy-not-right-way-forward.html

2 minutes ago, JayClay said:

While Tories continue to torch the UK, all that their supporters can do is clutch on to errors made in the past.

 

Like torching Iraq?

2 minutes ago, JayClay said:

He'll be playing the Jeremy Corbyn card next ????.

 

While Tories continue to torch the UK, all that their supporters can do is clutch on to errors made in the past.

 

Never mind the current chancellor of the UK stating that prices should be going down in shops because inflation has fallen!

 

The idea that Labour, or any other party could do worse than the current bunch is laughable. I don't know how people can say it with a straight face. They either have a financial interest in this lot staying in power (shares in BP or Themes water perhaps?) or.... well the alternative is pretty obvious.

I couldn't believe that anyone could say such a stupid thing about prices. But here it is. 

 

Shops must drop prices now inflation has fallen, orders Jeremy Hunt

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1793014/jeremy-hunt-prices-drop-inflation-falls

1 minute ago, JonnyF said:

Your theory that every other country suffered due to Covid and the war, but the UK suffered due solely to Brexit is laughable

When I read the comment from @placeholder,  I thought that he really should bolden or italicize "and" betwen "The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral" and "by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit".

 

I thought I was just nit-picking, but it seems that people really do have poor enough reading comprehension to require it. Well done.

2 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Like torching Iraq?

It's not a good idea to choose like the one policy that was supported by the tories at the time to use as an example... ????????‍♂️

4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Do you realize how many countries economies suffered due to Covid and the war in Ukraine? The UK is not unique in that regard, in fact they have done very well compared to many.

 

Your theory that every other country suffered due to Covid and the war, but the UK suffered due solely to Brexit is laughable. Even with Covid and the war (2 massive events and not under the control of the UK) Britain has not suffered anywhere near the extent as predicted by Project Fear. In fact, even I expected a longer period of disruption but the resilience of the economy and the speed by which we have done trade deals has been very impressive.

 

The lies about the impact of Brexit have been exposed, and your lame attempts to brush this under the carpet are failing.

What don't you understand about this statement of mine?

 The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral and by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit.

Just now, JayClay said:

It's not a good idea to choose like the one policy that was supported by the tories at the time to use as an example... ????????‍♂️

Accepted on the basis of Blair's lies about WMD.

 

At that point, knowledge of his nature of being a pathological liar was not widespread as it is now.

3 minutes ago, JayClay said:

When I read the comment from @placeholder,  I thought that he really should bolden or italicize "and" betwen "The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral" and "by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit".

 

I thought I was just nit-picking, but it seems that people really do have poor enough reading comprehension to require it. Well done.

Maybe larger typeface, too.

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

5 years of lost economic growth will be the case because Labour will get into power next year.

Yeah, god damn socialists.

Just now, JonnyF said:

Accepted on the basis of Blair's lies about WMD.

 

At that point, knowledge of his nature of being a pathological liar was not widespread as it is now.

I was also against the war, as was the majority of the public.

 

If I could see through the lies at the time, whilst having no access to the government, why wouldn't the tories be able to figure it out ????

1 minute ago, FruitPudding said:

Yeah, god damn socialists.

Next thing you know, those Marxists will propose increasing support for the NH.

Well at least the British are free from the totalitarian control of the globalist European Union, they got that going for them. They also do not have old sleepy Joe as their president, another plus.

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What don't you understand about this statement of mine?

 The UK economy has been been hurt by events outside of its contral and by the self-inflicted damage which is the result of Brexit.

I understand it (I assume you mean control) but without giving accurate figures on the impact of both categories it's a pretty meaningless statement.

 

A bit like saying my annual expenses consisted of rent, food and a pair of flip-flops. Since the flip-flops were non essential, we can conclude that I was frivoulous with my annual expenses.  

 

The impact of Brexit was negligibile, as I have already stated is demonstrated by the fact that the largest EU economy which remained is doing worse than Britain who left. The impact of Brexit will also decline with each passing year. 

1 minute ago, Screaming said:

Well at least the British are free from the totalitarian control of the globalist European Union, they got that going for them. They also do not have old sleepy Joe as their president, another plus.

Right. Before Brexit, Britons enjoyed no more freedom of expression than did citizens of North Korea. At least, not in the alternative universe you hail from.