25 minutes ago, retarius said:

Truly great news. I have not heard a forecast from TAT for a while and worried that they had been shot to put them out of their misery.....but, thank god they are alive and can still do forecasts of tourists that are the most relevant and interesting thing in my life (I use the numbers for the lottery).

Can someone tell me what the point of TAT is?

It's the Mad Tatters Tea Party. Every month they move one seat to the right.

Based on current flight costs I would estimate 33% of the arrivals are migrant workers and not tourists

6 hours ago, bullseye66 said:

I think they take a number and double it....then put it out as the figure they expect. 

I think they quadruple it, then divide by 4, double that and add 500, knock off 400 for bad behaviour immi denials and then have a committee input there thoughts and agree that something like 30 million sounds good. 

"Up to 30 million visitors expected this year: TAT"

 

What a surprise!!!

 

 

More rediculous exaggerated arrivals & predictions from TAT but there are a few "wally's" on here who totally swallow their rubbish!

This years low season started early and despite July picking up and this month looking good the next 4 months are not looking great and there are many reasons why. By the end of this month we will have had the best 4 months in this year being Jan, Feb, March & August with approximately 10M arrivals so the other 8 slower months are not going to yield anything like triple that number. Hopefully December will be good but current bookings dont suggest that. 

Oh boy, I can hardly wait. 

7 hours ago, bullseye66 said:

I think they take a number and double it....then put it out as the figure they expect. 

And if it proves wrong in retrospect, they will blame it on 'decreased wealth' in the West, moon phases, or the 1883 Krakatoa eruption...

IF… Like All the airlines now they increased the number of flights and Stopped Ripping passengers off with the price of the tickets then even more people would come and that number then would become credible…

7 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

What 'actual data'? And on inward flight capacity, do they expect every flight to be full? If so, based on what? Do they take the economic situation in the countries these tourists come from, both now and what they think it might be over the coming months?

https://www.mots.go.th/more_news_new.php?cid=411

 

No idea what tolerances they apply to the known future 100% load capacity of incoming flights but I'm sure they look at the actual % load factors currently being achieved as a start point. That's as good an indication of economic headwinds as anything especially in such a short timeframe of 5 months. Both June and July ( if confirmed ) were higher than Jan-Mar presumably because more flight capacity has been added in the Asian region as that's where the arrivals are increasing from.