Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, Thorgal said:

 

It's known that you don't condone IAF for bombing Gaza civilians. 

 

Gaza could have been surrounded (like it is now) and let the hostages out by negotiations.

All these civilians killings are not needed.

 

It's only for PR of the Israeli government coalition : Likud, Ultra Religious and Ultra Right.

If it was a democratic center-left government : no bombings would happen knowing that you reach nothing, except genocide.

 

Showing Jeremy Corbyn and his left view on this war works like kryptonite to most Zionists.

Calling him (or me) an antisemite is because he isn't in favor, like me, for this war.

 

"It's only for PR of the Israeli government coalition : Likud, Ultra Religious and Ultra Right.

If it was a democratic center-left government : no bombings would happen knowing that you reach nothing, except genocide."

 

The current right wing government was joined by a major centrist party for the duration of the war. Your assertion that a center-left government (even if that was even an option) would react in a significant different way is nonsense. If anything, such a government would be under more public pressure to act, courtesy of a right-wing opposition.

 

"Gaza could have been surrounded (like it is now) and let the hostages out by negotiations.

All these civilians killings are not needed."

 

So, in effect, reward the Hamas. You'd like that, sure.

[Thorgal]

3 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

"It's only for PR of the Israeli government coalition : Likud, Ultra Religious and Ultra Right.

If it was a democratic center-left government : no bombings would happen knowing that you reach nothing, except genocide."

 

The current right wing government was joined by a major centrist party for the duration of the war. Your assertion that a center-left government (even if that was even an option) would react in a significant different way is nonsense. If anything, such a government would be under more public pressure to act, courtesy of a right-wing opposition.

 

"Gaza could have been surrounded (like it is now) and let the hostages out by negotiations.

All these civilians killings are not needed."

 

So, in effect, reward the Hamas. You'd like that, sure.

 

It's exactly this weak coalition of minorities that was not popular for many Israelis even before the 7th of October attacks.

 

There's enough footage online which shows still today that many Israeli's are against this coalition that cannot combine or unite religious Zionists, secular Zionists and all other non-Zionist Israelis. 

 

Previous hostage Ghilad Shalit was released for some 1.000 prisoners. So, yes it's possible to negotiate the release of hostages.

Furthermore, if I follow your logic it's completely acceptable to bomb Gaza even if you own people/citizens (199 hostages) are below, mixed with Gaza population.

IDF Gaza periphery security system could not be guaranteed. Do innocent Palestinian civilians (outside Hamas franchise) have to pay the price for that to compensate?

[deejai33]

2 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   How do you know what the vast majority of Palestinian  supporters thought about Hamas actions ?

   Were there any chants opposing Hamas's actions or any banners opposing Hamas ?

There were Numerous banners telling Israel to stop bombing Gaza , were there any banners telling Hamas to stop bombing Israel ?

 

As you say I cannot say what the private thoughts of the majority of protesters was.  I was not there, did not speak about it with them, or have access to their diaries etc. 

And neither can you say what their private thoughts were.

So I'll accept that point and focus on your claim that the (majority) of protesters were voicing support for Hamas, and its recent attrocity.    Signs and speeches.  Perhaps we can agree on this visible indicator.

My reading of diverse news articles is that the sentiments being voiced were mainly humanitarian ones, aimed at saving lives in Palestine, Gaza. Trying to influence governments of their countries.

People wanted the water, electricity, food and medical supplies to be restored by Israel who cut them off.  People wanted the daily bombings to stop.  Ceasefires.  "Stop war on Gaza", 'free palestine' , 'stop war crimes' were signs. See reuters below.

Very few people were saying 'go Hamas, kill another 1,200'.   'Hamas will win'.  Those who were would be have been in a small minority, and possibly stopped from voicing that by march organisers  or the police.

Do you want to rephrase your statement to something like:

"The majority of worldwide protesters were expressing concern over the looming humanitarian disaster for the civilians and children of Gaza, and against bombing civilians.  Few references to Hamas or its recent attrocity were made."

There have been protests too which focus on the Hamas attrocity and plight of the hostages.  These would not support Hamas ofcourse.

London protest:
https://www.reuters.com/world/about-100000-protesters-join-pro-palestinian-march-through-london-2023-10-21/

Reuters states: 'Police warned that anyone supporting Hamas, would be arrested"  

I read elsewhere fewer than 10 arrests made, no mention of Hamas. Indicating no support for hamas was voiced.

Arab countries:

Probably countries like Iran would have had pro Hamas protests.    I can believe that.

[deejai33]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Its not a small minority. 

It's the majority. 

See reply I made just now.  In London protest, police said they would arrest anyone voicing hamas support.  10 arrests were made, probably not hamas related. But surely a tiny proportion of 100,000.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

See reply I made just now.  In London protest, police said they would arrest anyone voicing hamas support.  10 arrests were made, probably not hamas related. But surely a tiny proportion of 100,000.

I call BS.

They're not arresting River to the Sea chanters.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

I could have missed it, but did not notice anything about a poll. If it was there, it was apparently not a major point of discussion.

If I'm wrong, you're welcome to correct me.

i could have mixed it with BBC program cited previously, but here are various recent polls:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/wall-street-journal-ipsos-poll-israel-hamas

https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/prior-attack-israel-majority-americans-supported-talks-hamas

https://today.yougov.com/international/articles/47606-israel-hamas-war-americans-support-israel-have-doubts-about-biden-poll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/16/americans-want-us-to-help-get-gaza-civilians-out-of-harms-way-survey

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hamas-attack-us-attitudes-israel-palestinians-shifted-party/story?id=103892349

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Thorgal said:

 

It's exactly this weak coalition of minorities that was not popular for many Israelis even before the 7th of October attacks.

 

There's enough footage online which shows still today that many Israeli's are against this coalition that cannot combine or unite religious Zionists, secular Zionists and all other non-Zionist Israelis. 

 

Previous hostage Ghilad Shalit was released for some 1.000 prisoners. So, yes it's possible to negotiate the release of hostages.

Furthermore, if I follow your logic it's completely acceptable to bomb Gaza even if you own people/citizens (199 hostages) are below, mixed with Gaza population.

IDF Gaza periphery security system could not be guaranteed. Do innocent Palestinian civilians (outside Hamas franchise) have to pay the price for that to compensate?

 

It was (and is) unpopular with the opposition, but still commands a majority in parliament. Whether or not this will change remains to be seen. This has nothing to do with your comment, though.

 

The Shalit case was (a) not preceded by a barbarian attack resulting in over a 1000 deaths, and (b) was controversial. The PM at the time, btw, was Netanyahu.

 

I don't know if it's 'acceptable', I know it's the decision made. I can understand the reasons for it, and also why some would be against it. I doubt that doing nothing would be helpful, though.

 

Oh, so you blame the Hamas attack on the IDF? That's cool. Try harder. Maybe like consider whether it's alright for Hamas to sacrifice Gazan lives.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

Really, that's strange, it does not reflect the current polls.

 

More than 80 percent of Americans are siding with Israel amid an ongoing war against Hamas in a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/

 

Americans strongly support Israel, but there are generational and racial divides

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/13/1205627092/american-support-israel-biden-middle-east-hamas-poll

I posted various polls above. What is clear is that attitudes toward Israel in various aspects are waning, but still around 50% on most questions.

[Morch]

11 minutes ago, placnx said:

i could have mixed it with BBC program cited previously, but here are various recent polls:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/wall-street-journal-ipsos-poll-israel-hamas

https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/prior-attack-israel-majority-americans-supported-talks-hamas

https://today.yougov.com/international/articles/47606-israel-hamas-war-americans-support-israel-have-doubts-about-biden-poll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/16/americans-want-us-to-help-get-gaza-civilians-out-of-harms-way-survey

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hamas-attack-us-attitudes-israel-palestinians-shifted-party/story?id=103892349

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As far as I can tell, none of the polls on the links above supports your original claim about the alleged "60% of Americans polled support the Palestinians".

 

[Morch]

22 minutes ago, placnx said:

I posted various polls above. What is clear is that attitudes toward Israel in various aspects are waning, but still around 50% on most questions.

 

What's clear is that's not quite what you originally claimed.

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

What's clear is that's not quite what you originally claimed.

So apparently, when CNN asks: Do you think is acceptable for Israel to kill Palestinian civilians ? there are 50% of Americans that say no. 

[scottiejohn]

56 minutes ago, placnx said:

What is clear is that attitudes toward Israel in various aspects are waning, but still around 50% on most questions.

How does anyone know what the attitudes towards anyone are if we do not know the questions asked to whom or answers given?

Please provide some links and accurate information before making such a pointless post!

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

I posted various polls above. What is clear is that attitudes toward Israel in various aspects are waning, but still around 50% on most questions.

Nope, not seeing that at all, 2 of your polls are from before the conflict and when you add the polls I also linked to the picture is by far the majority of Americans support Israel and I've not seen any waning.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

What's clear is that's not quite what you originally claimed.

Deny, deny!

[Morch]

Just now, placnx said:

Deny, deny!

 

There are no polls offered supporting your 60% support for Palestine comment.

[placnx]

22 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nope, not seeing that at all, 2 of your polls are from before the conflict and when you add the polls I also linked to the picture is by far the majority of Americans support Israel and I've not seen any waning.

I was talking about before the conflict, but some polls may also cover afterwards, and some links have a series of polls reported. There are various questions asked. So there are various percentages depending on the question.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

I was talking about before the conflict, but some polls may also cover afterwards, and some links have a series of polls reported. There are various questions asked. So there are various percentages depending on the question.

 

Yes I know all that, but what is relevant is that current polls are reflecting continuing majority support for Israel with no waning

[placnx]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

 

There are no polls offered supporting your 60% support for Palestine comment.

I see a lot of different sources. Wherever it was, I found 60% to be quite remarkable. A number of the polls frame the question as to whether people have a favorable attitude about Palestinians.

[placnx]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

Yes I know all that, but what is relevant is that current polls are reflecting continuing majority support for Israel with no waning

A number of polls discuss some previous time when view of Israel was higher or view of Palestinians lower.

[placnx]

58 minutes ago, scottiejohn said:

How does anyone know what the attitudes towards anyone are if we do not know the questions asked to whom or answers given?

Please provide some links and accurate information before making such a pointless post!

Here again:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/wall-street-journal-ipsos-poll-israel-hamas

https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/prior-attack-israel-majority-americans-supported-talks-hamas

https://today.yougov.com/international/articles/47606-israel-hamas-war-americans-support-israel-have-doubts-about-biden-poll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/16/americans-want-us-to-help-get-gaza-civilians-out-of-harms-way-survey

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hamas-attack-us-attitudes-israel-palestinians-shifted-party/story?id=103892349

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, placnx said:

A number of polls discuss some previous time when view of Israel was higher or view of Palestinians lower.

Well not the ones I posted.....look them up and the polls you posted also do not show that so unless you actually gather them up with similar questions and aggregate the results then all this is conjecture from you. The latest poll again states:

 

More than 80 percent of Americans are siding with Israel amid an ongoing war against Hamas in a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/

[placnx]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Well not the ones I posted.....look them up and the polls you posted also do not show that so unless you actually gather them up with similar questions and aggregate the results then all this is conjecture from you. The latest poll again states:

 

More than 80 percent of Americans are siding with Israel amid an ongoing war against Hamas in a new Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll shared with The Hill.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4268117-americans-overwhelmingly-support-israel-in-war-with-hamas-poll/

My first link, WSJ/ipsos poll has some interesting figures:

"About half of Americans agree that America has a responsibility to “support Israel in its war with Hamas” (52%), “push parties in the Israel-Gaza conflict to negotiate” (53%), and “protect Israeli civilians” (54%). Two in five (41%) say the U.S. has a responsibility to “protect Palestinian civilians” and one in four (28%) say the U.S. has a responsibility to “work towards Palestinian statehood."

 

BTW, the poll you cited has some remarkable breakdown figures, such as:

"Broken down by age, 52 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds said they sided more with Israel, while 48 percent said they sided more with Hamas. In contrast, 95 percent of respondents 65 years and older said they sided with Israel while 5 percent sided with Hamas."

[scottiejohn]

11 minutes ago, placnx said:

Here again:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/wall-street-journal-ipsos-poll-israel-hamas

https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/prior-attack-israel-majority-americans-supported-talks-hamas

https://today.yougov.com/international/articles/47606-israel-hamas-war-americans-support-israel-have-doubts-about-biden-poll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/16/americans-want-us-to-help-get-gaza-civilians-out-of-harms-way-survey

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hamas-attack-us-attitudes-israel-palestinians-shifted-party/story?id=103892349

Please indicate which, if any of the above unrelated links contain a quote reinforcing your nonsensical statement that;

"What is clear is that attitudes toward Israel in various aspects are waning, but still around 50% on most questions."

And what the answers to my original questions which were;

"How does anyone know what the attitudes towards anyone are if we do not know the questions asked to whom or answers given?"

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, placnx said:

My first link, WSJ/ipsos poll has some interesting figures:

"About half of Americans agree that America has a responsibility to “support Israel in its war with Hamas” (52%), “push parties in the Israel-Gaza conflict to negotiate” (53%), and “protect Israeli civilians” (54%). Two in five (41%) say the U.S. has a responsibility to “protect Palestinian civilians” and one in four (28%) say the U.S. has a responsibility to “work towards Palestinian statehood."

 

BTW, the poll you cited has some remarkable breakdown figures, such as:

"Broken down by age, 52 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds said they sided more with Israel, while 48 percent said they sided more with Hamas. In contrast, 95 percent of respondents 65 years and older said they sided with Israel while 5 percent sided with Hamas."

Well yes, breaking down polls into age groups always has differences. But overall its 80%

 

Still waiting to see your claim of  60% of Americans polled support the Palestinians

 

 

[scottiejohn]

2 minutes ago, placnx said:

My first link, WSJ/ipsos poll has some interesting figures:

Possibly only to you due to your warped view/misinterpretation of them!!

[spidermike007]

This seems to be the only course of action they know, violence and a campaign of death seems to be their only path. Israel is now controlled by the extremists on the right and Netanyahu does not seem to have a choice but to obey their every whim. Peace is not an option, negotiations are not an option. A two-state solution does not seem to be an option anymore, and the warmongers are in control. Another example of the severe decline of modern civilization. 

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

This seems to be the only course of action they know, violence and a campaign of death seems to be their only path. Israel is now controlled by the extremists on the right and Netanyahu does not seem to have a choice but to obey their every whim. Peace is not an option, negotiations are not an option. A two-state solution does not seem to be an option anymore, and the warmongers are in control. Another example of the severe decline of modern civilization. 

 

It is doubtful any Israeli government would react much differently. People don't seem to appreciate the impact this had on Israel and the Israeli public.

Further more, the current right-wing government gets conditional war time support from one Centrist party, and less political hassle from others. If this was a Center-Left government, you can bet Netanyahu, and all the right wing parties would go on the (political) war path.

 

Peace how? With Hamas? That's out the window. You want to blame it on Israel? Think if your country would make peace with terrorists after such an attack. Doubt it. Obviously, Hamas is also uninterested in peace to begin with, so not sure what you actually had in mind. Negotiations? On what? Giving in to Hamas demands? Rewarding the attack? You'll have to be more specific than that.

 

The two state solution, which was already bleeding, to another bullet with the Hamas attack. I've no idea if that was one of Hamas's goals, but that's how it is. Try convincing Israelis that withdrawing from the West Bank is a good idea after 7/10. It's not that I'm opposed to a two-state solution, just being realistic as to where it stands.

 

As usual, going on about Israel, not much condemnation or criticism vs. the other side.

[deejai33]

10 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

This seems to be the only course of action they know, violence and a campaign of death seems to be their only path. Israel is now controlled by the extremists on the right and Netanyahu does not seem to have a choice but to obey their every whim. Peace is not an option, negotiations are not an option. A two-state solution does not seem to be an option anymore, and the warmongers are in control. Another example of the severe decline of modern civilization. 

 

That seems quite a gloomy view, with little hope for peace and prosperity.   But you could be correct....

 

Can I follow up this view with a question aimed at the contributors here who stand out, based on their many posts, as definetly pro-Israel.  I think we can all list them.

 

Can I ask this:

 

We know you want Hamas wiped out, to be history.  We know you probably support the settler movement.  And you want Israeli's to live in a peaceful state, free from attacks from religious nut-cases.  OK, some variant of that.

 

So what do you want to be the Palestinians future ?  There's approx 5m of them in area Israel controls. 2m in Jordan, total 15m worldwide.

 

What do pro-Israel folk want their future to be?

 

 

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

That seems quite a gloomy view, with little hope for peace and prosperity.   But you could be correct....

 

Can I follow up this view with a question aimed at the contributors here who stand out, based on their many posts, as definetly pro-Israel.  I think we can all list them.

 

Can I ask this:

 

We know you want Hamas wiped out, to be history.  We know you probably support the settler movement.  And you want Israeli's to live in a peaceful state, free from attacks from religious nut-cases.  OK, some variant of that.

 

So what do you want to be the Palestinians future ?  There's approx 5m of them in area Israel controls. 2m in Jordan, total 15m worldwide.

 

What do pro-Israel folk want their future to be?

 

 

 

Who is 'we'? Who do you claim to speak for? Or for that matter - what are your views on the 'questions' you raise?

And, for that matter - why is it that you are not, apparently, much interested in what the Palestinian want? What the Hamas wants?

[Yellowtail]

15 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

That seems quite a gloomy view, with little hope for peace and prosperity.   But you could be correct....

 

Can I follow up this view with a question aimed at the contributors here who stand out, based on their many posts, as definetly pro-Israel.  I think we can all list them.

 

Can I ask this:

 

We know you want Hamas wiped out, to be history.  We know you probably support the settler movement.  And you want Israeli's to live in a peaceful state, free from attacks from religious nut-cases.  OK, some variant of that.

 

So what do you want to be the Palestinians future ?  There's approx 5m of them in area Israel controls. 2m in Jordan, total 15m worldwide.

 

What do pro-Israel folk want their future to be?

 

 

 

 

Can I follow up this view with a question aimed at the contributors here who stand out, based on their many posts, as definitely pro-hamas/Palestine.  I think we can all list them.

 

Can I ask this:

 

We know you want Israel to stop attacking hamas and to be just be targets.  We know you probably support that all lands river to sea be given over to hamas/Palestine.  And you want hamas/Palestine to live in a peaceful state, free from attacks from religious nut-case Zionists.  OK, some variant of that.

 

So what do you want to be the Israelis  future ?  There's approx 7m of them in area Israel controls, total 16m worldwide.

 

What do pro-hamas/Palestine folk want their future to be? Kill then all or just kill the men and force the women to be sex-slaves?