Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[placnx]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Daniel Levy bangs about the same stuff on and on. He does not actually offer viable means as to how goals are to be achieved - usually concentrating on rather 'theoretical' concepts. Oh, and of course, Israel Bad, USA Bad, the West Bad. Nothing particularly new, original or realistic. What he talks about is more on the level of tectonic changes in USA and Israel party that may lead to something. This is largely irrelevant from a political point of view, does not address current issues, and basically removes accountability from other regional players (mostly Iran and the Palestinians).

At least he does a very good explanation of how we got here, which helps in the understanding of some way out of this mess.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

[couchpotato]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Blah blah blah.

First they need to win this war.

Their survival depends on it.

 

To paraphrase 

 

If the Arabs put down their arms there will be peace.

 

If Israel puts down their arms they will be massacred.

Probably better to keep to food appraisal.

[Morch]

30 minutes ago, placnx said:

At least he does a very good explanation of how we got here, which helps in the understanding of some way out of this mess.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

 

I think I'm done bothering with clips you link. You've already wasted enough of my time with stuff that wasn't there. But as I'm somewhat familiar with Levy's work and point of view, I doubt it's much more than the usual waffle. Even if one wished to adopt his point of view, it could certainly be argued as one interpretation of many, rather than being a written in stone thing. He says what you want to hear, so you assert it's a 'very good' explanation. That's not much of a recommendation.

[deejai33]

I do not think I have read a post here that explicitly and in simple terms says the following statement:

"It is clearly unjust and inhumane to intentionally cut off the water, electricity, food supplies from 2m civilians.  Women, children, men."

Gaza has been cut off by the deliberate choice of Israeli government from these essentials of life for 2+ weeks.

Is there anyone on the planet who would disagree with my statement ? 

If there are people who disagree with my statement, please list your reasons.

 

[Yellowtail]

6 hours ago, placnx said:

Please provide a reliable link concerning PLO rejection of the Saudi peace proposal.

What's reliable? "The Ten Point Program was rejected by the more radical hard-line factions of the PLO, which were mainly concerned that the Program could potentially turn into a peace agreement with Israel."

PLO's Ten Point Program - Wikipedia

6 hours ago, placnx said:

The Palestinians would definitely like a two state solution if the horrific settlers would be sent back to Israel and be banned from the Haram al-Sharif. No problem for settlers who have no animus to remain in the West Bank subject to local law. 

I don't think so. 

6 hours ago, placnx said:

Since Israel effectively controls all access to Gaza, even through Egypt, Gaza is called the world's largest open air prison. It is why Israel will (if the US comes to its senses) hopefully be held fully to account for the ongoing collective punishment on over 2 million largely innocent people.

A lot of people call Donald Trump Hitler, and Biden vibrant. 

 

 

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

I do not think I have read a post here that explicitly and in simple terms says the following statement:

"It is clearly unjust and inhumane to intentionally cut off the water, electricity, food supplies from 2m civilians.  Women, children, men."

Gaza has been cut off by the deliberate choice of Israeli government from these essentials of life for 2+ weeks.

Is there anyone on the planet who would disagree with my statement ? 

If there are people who disagree with my statement, please list your reasons.

 

 

^

Virtue signaling alert.

 

Just as this war started, there were urgent statements that things will reach unsustainable level within days. It's been 20 days now. Go figure.

Also, maybe you should send your complaints to the Hamas, seeing as they take their share of anything that comes into Gaza. Or do you think their underground bunkers etc. aren't well supplied? Why don't they share with their brethren? Why don't they care about the people under their rule?

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, placnx said:

Before saying I'm being absurd, please read the Amnesty report. The housing discrimination is pervasive and state policy rather than lower level discrimination such as 'red lining' in the US. I can't put links from Haaretz etc since I'm away from home now.

If you've read the report, why don't you just post the relevant *quotes from it? 

 

*With statute numbers and whatnot. 

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You can post all the links you want 

It doesn’t change the fact that Israeli citizens in Israeli borders are not living under apartheid. The discrimination that they do face does not rise to the level where that demonizing label is justified. 

I wonder if they let the Arab Muslim on Israel’s Supreme Court use the same bathroom as the Jews....

[deejai33]

2 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

^

Virtue signaling alert.

 

Just as this war started, there were urgent statements that things will reach unsustainable level within days. It's been 20 days now. Go figure.

Also, maybe you should send your complaints to the Hamas, seeing as they take their share of anything that comes into Gaza. Or do you think their underground bunkers etc. aren't well supplied? Why don't they share with their brethren? Why don't they care about the people under their rule?

Call it virtue signalling if you like.

 

Do you disagree with my statements ?  Actually 2 statements.  Both seem accurate.  Maybe you disagree with the accuracy of the 2nd statement and that actually Isreal has not cut off supplies for 20 days.

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, couchpotato said:

Probably better to keep to food appraisal.

Better to shut your pie hole if all you've got are personal attacks. 

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

Call it virtue signalling if you like.

 

Do you disagree with my statements ?  Actually 2 statements.  Both seem accurate.  Maybe you disagree with the accuracy of the 2nd statement and that actually Isreal has not cut off supplies for 20 days.

 

I just did. I do.

 

I'm not interested in your virtue signalling 'statements'. You want to say something, drop the nonsense.

Gave you something to chew on in my previous reply, maybe think about it. Get some context.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, placnx said:

At least he does a very good explanation of how we got here, which helps in the understanding of some way out of this mess.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

Rather than just posting just posting link and pretending it supports your argument, why not provide a few pertinent quotes we can discuss?

[deejai33]

11 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

I just did. I do.

 

I'm not interested in your virtue signalling 'statements'. You want to say something, drop the nonsense.

Gave you something to chew on in my previous reply, maybe think about it. Get some context.

Interesting that you do disagree with my 2 statements.  Truly interesting.

 

I can believe people might argue about it being solely israels choice that water, food, electricity has been cut off.  

 

But really and truly I cannot believe anyone would think cutting life's essentials from 2m diverse people ( women, children, hamas supporters, non-hamas supporters etc)  is OK.  

 

I cannot believe you really think that.

 

You state you disagree with me, but give no reason beyond reference to recent Hamas attrocities, which almost everyone condemns.

 

You read what the queen of Lebanon says about the denial of life essentials to gazans.  You read what UN boss (SG) says. What EU leaders say ?

Edited October 27, 2023 by deejai33

[Yellowtail]

25 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

I do not think I have read a post here that explicitly and in simple terms says the following statement:

"It is clearly unjust and inhumane to intentionally cut off the water, electricity, food supplies from 2m civilians.  Women, children, men."

Gaza has been cut off by the deliberate choice of Israeli government from these essentials of life for 2+ weeks.

Is there anyone on the planet who would disagree with my statement ? 

If there are people who disagree with my statement, please list your reasons.

 

That's because it's not true. 

What percentage of Gaza's water did Israel provide? 

What percentage of Gaza's electricity did Israel provide? 

What percentage of Gaza's food did Israel provide? 

 

If Gaza had no water for two weeks, they would all be dead. 

If Gaza had no electricity, hamas would not be able hide in the tunnels. 

If Gaza had no food for two weeks, people would be surrendering or at least fleeing to the safe areas. 

 

 

 

[deejai33]

23 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

^

Virtue signaling alert.

 

Just as this war started, there were urgent statements that things will reach unsustainable level within days. It's been 20 days now. Go figure.

Also, maybe you should send your complaints to the Hamas, seeing as they take their share of anything that comes into Gaza. Or do you think their underground bunkers etc. aren't well supplied? Why don't they share with their brethren? Why don't they care about the people under their rule?

I can believe Hamas care little about the 2m civilians they have assumed control over.  Yes.  

 

I agree with you.

 

But my question is not about how Hamas treats gazans.  Its about how Isreal is denying life's essentials.  No need to talk about Hamas.

[Yellowtail]

19 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

Call it virtue signalling if you like.

 

Do you disagree with my statements ?  Actually 2 statements.  Both seem accurate.  Maybe you disagree with the accuracy of the 2nd statement and that actually Isreal has not cut off supplies for 20 days.

I disagree. 

 

And even if it were true, would cutting off the water, power and food not be more humane that bombing? Hamam has plenty of power, water and food. 

[deejai33]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

That's because it's not true. 

What percentage of Gaza's water did Israel provide? 

What percentage of Gaza's electricity did Israel provide? 

What percentage of Gaza's food did Israel provide? 

 

If Gaza had no water for two weeks, they would all be dead. 

If Gaza had no electricity, hamas would not be able hide in the tunnels. 

If Gaza had no food for two weeks, people would be surrendering or at least fleeing to the safe areas. 

 

 

 

Glad its not true.  

 

Maybe you are correct and gazans are not lacking water, food, electricity.

 

I do not know those stats you ask about.  I did see gaza has some water desalination plants.  But the fuel has run out.  Water comes from Israel and West bank supplies in the main.  I don't know for sure however.

 

But everyday, most news sources report gaza has run out, or is about to run out of essentials.  Do you read that, and say 'no, not true'.

[deejai33]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I disagree. 

 

And even if it were true, would cutting off the water, power and food not be more humane that bombing? Hamam has plenty of power, water and food. 

I'm not sure which is more humane.  Bombing civilians or deliberately starving them.

 

How do we decide which is more humane ?

 

You say Hamas has plenty of essential supplies.   They are unaffected by the cutting off of life essentials.  Sounds possibly accurate, they have guns and power over the civilians, so they grab what they want.  OK I agree hamas is not affected by the israeli cutting off.

 

In that case why does israel continue to do it ?  Answer that ?  Not to deprive hamas operatives as you agree.

[Morch]

13 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

Interesting that you do disagree with my 2 statements.  Truly interesting.

 

I can believe people might argue about it being solely israels choice that water, food, electricity has been cut off.  

 

But really and truly I cannot believe anyone would think cutting life's essentials from 2m diverse people ( women, children, hamas supporters, non-hamas supporters etc)  is OK.  

 

I cannot believe you really think that.

 

You state you disagree with me, but give no reason beyond reference to recent Hamas attrocities, which almost everyone condemns.

 

You read what the queen of Lebanon says about the denial of life essentials to gazans.  You read what UN boss (SG) says. What EU leaders say ?

 

 

Interesting that you should put words in my mouth. Not surprising, though.

 

'I just did. I do." - that was in reply to your 'Call it virtue signalling if you  like bit.

 

So maybe rethink your post above.

 

 

[Morch]

15 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

I can believe Hamas care little about the 2m civilians they have assumed control over.  Yes.  

 

I agree with you.

 

But my question is not about how Hamas treats gazans.  Its about how Isreal is denying life's essentials.  No need to talk about Hamas.

 

Oh, Hamas 'assumed control'? Gee, I was under the impression they were elected. By Palestinians. By Gazans.

Why is there no need to talk about Hamas?

Why don't the people of Gaza, the UN, HRW and the Queen of Jordan go asking the supplies from them?

Edited October 27, 2023 by Morch

[deejai33]

40 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

 

Interesting that you should put words in my mouth. Not surprising, though.

 

'I just did. I do." - that was in reply to your 'Call it virtue signalling if you  like bit.

 

So maybe rethink your post above.

 

 

OK, sorry I thought you meant you disagreed about cutting of life essentials being inhuman.

 

i.e. the important part of my post.

 

So do you agree with me its inhumane to cut off 2m people's essential supplies for 2 weeks+.

 

Focus on the main question please.

 

I'm sure you do agree with me.

[deejai33]

50 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Oh, Hamas 'assumed control'? Gee, I was under the impression they were elected. By Palestinians. By Gazans.

Why is there no need to talk about Hamas?

Why don't the people of Gaza, the UN, HRW and the Queen of Jordan go asking the supplies from them?

When was the election ? 17 years ago I believe.  I doubt the election was free and fair, but maybe it was.  Democracy is probably fledgling at best in the middle east. 

 

And even so 17 years is a long time ago.  

 

Israel probably has valid elections where the civilians can be held account to some extent.  But even then leaders become elected without full support of a country.   Leaders once elected may take actions those electing them don't agree with.

 

I've seen a few posts on here that try to increase the blame on, culpability of,  the civilian population by referring to elections.  Its worth examining this issue in another post.

 

Your question about asking Hamas, queen of Jordan, for essential supplies seems odd.  Those people do not have supplies for 2m people.

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by deejai33

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

OK, sorry I thought you meant you disagreed about cutting of life essentials being inhuman.

 

i.e. the important part of my post.

 

So do you agree with me its inhumane to cut off 2m people's essential supplies for 2 weeks+.

 

Focus on the main question please.

 

I'm sure you do agree with me.

 

Not interested in your contrived nonsense posts.

 

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

When was the election ? 17 years ago I believe.  I doubt the election was free and fair, but maybe it was.  Democracy is probably fledgling at best in the middle east. 

 

And even so 17 years is a long time ago.  

 

Israel probably has valid elections where the civilians can be held account to some extent.  But even then leaders become elected without full support of a country.   Leaders once elected may take actions those electing them don't agree with.

 

I've seen a few posts on here that try to increase the blame on, culpability of,  the civilian population by referring to elections.  Its worth examining this issue in another post.

 

 

Waffle.

Nothing much to do with what i posted.

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Housing discrimination doesn't mean Israel is an apartheid state. Such issues exist in many countries. You're being absurd.

Buf I get it  You cling to buzzwords to demonize Israel.

How about if the government makes iextremely difficult for Arab Israelis to acquire land to expand their villages?

https://www.hrw.org/reports/2008/iopt0308/4.htm#:~:text=According to Adalah%2C a human,land controlled by the state.&text=Bedouins' lack of access to,Israel's Palestinian Arab population generally.

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

Oh, Hamas 'assumed control'? Gee, I was under the impression they were elected. By Palestinians. By Gazans.

Why is there no need to talk about Hamas?

Why don't the people of Gaza, the UN, HRW and the Queen of Jordan go asking the supplies from them?

Actually, a coalition of the PA and Hamas took power after the elections. Then Hamas violenty expelled the PA.

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, Morch said:

 

There is no wall-to-wall support among Palestinians for a two-state solution - regardless of your 'definitely'. And that's referencing the general public. Considering Hamas is not really into this, and that it's support base is significant, that would make your assertion out of touch with reality.

 

Israel does not normally have control over they Egyptian border crossing. These are special circumstances. Making up stuff again. Ignorant, or wilful people may adopt what label they want - the fact is that the blockade was not always in place and is directly tied to Hamas actions and policies. That you (and others) insist it should be lifted, but air no similar demands that Hamas change its ways does not make for a strong, of even informed, argument.

 

Your last comment is quite revealing. What you're after, apparently, is Israel's condemnation. It doesn't matter at what cost. It doesn't matter what the facts are. Thanks for sharing.

 

 

 

What Palestinians Really Think of Hamas
Before the War, Gaza’s Leaders Were Deeply Unpopular—but an Israeli Crackdown Could Change That

The argument that the entire population of Gaza can be held responsible for Hamas’s actions is quickly discredited when one looks at the facts. Arab Barometer, a research network where we serve as co-principal investigators, conducted a survey in Gaza and the West Bank days before the Israel-Hamas war broke out...  Unlike Hamas, whose goal is to destroy the Israeli state, the majority of survey respondents favored a two-state solution with an independent Palestine and Israel existing side by side.

https://archive.ph/9OXlT#selection-1827.0-1831.308

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-palestinians-really-think-hamas

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, placnx said:

To your last point, up to now, Israelis have disregarded the situation of the Palestinians, so settlement activity and apartheid could continue, until the Palestinians disappeared, perhaps? Now Hamas has gotten the attention of not only Israelis, but the world. Perhaps the consensus will arrive at a viable two state solution sooner rather than later.

Indeed, with the connivance of the US and the western leaders that kowtowed to Washington, the western media has been successful at ignoring the Palestinian issue, and apparently  the western masses remained blithely ignorant of the true situation. Thankfully to Al Jazeera, not entirely ignored.

 

Seems to me that netanyahu and his cronies underestimated the world's response to just bombing thousands of Palestinians to bits from safety, and the reaction has probably shocked israel and the israeli supporters in the US government.

Even the western media will have to cover 2.3 million human beings suffering under a relentless bombing campaign, while being cut off from water, food, electricity and medical support.

The comparison between support being given to Ukraine vs that being given to Gaza will not have escaped many in the west.

Meanwhile across the world, outrage is fuelling demonstrations, even in Denmark, and in Turkey the demonstrations are massive. It may be happening slowly, but IMO the tide is turning against israel, and western governments that support israel.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, deejai33 said:

OK, sorry I thought you meant you disagreed about cutting of life essentials being inhuman.

 

i.e. the important part of my post.

 

So do you agree with me its inhumane to cut off 2m people's essential supplies for 2 weeks+.

 

Focus on the main question please.

 

I'm sure you do agree with me.

If he agrees with you he will be accused of supporting Hamas, and if he disagrees he is supporting collective punishment on 2.3 million human beings.

 

Not a good situation to be in for an israeli supporter.

 

BTW it's been 3 weeks.

[Skipalongcassidy]

Until there is a fundamental change in attitude (hate and bigotry) toward jews by the muslim arabs nothing will change... most of the western world that has not been infiltrated by arab muslims support letting Israel live in peace...